(SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?

So, the war with the church is over and I got the feeling that the Mighty Host would have been just as happy to go home. They may still harbor bad feelings against the heretics but they also know they are out classed and not likely to try to carry on in what they knew to have been Clynthan's war. While the leaders back home may not want to see nearly a million well trained and armed troupers returning and they may try to redirect them outward, it looks like Earl Rainbow Water is more likely to be the next emperor.
It looks like more than half the population will be busy for a while dealing with reforms that may be forced on them by the fact that, even unarmed, these returning serfs know how to work together as combat teams and I have heard it said, use a knife till you capture a gun. The nobles and bureaucrats in the north may find that they can no more hold back the tide of change than king Canute could prevent the tide from rising.

I do not recall that the proscriptions were eliminated and David was coy about the room under the temple... though Merlin knows where the back door is and I expect the vineyard to be under new ownership before the dust settles.

Looking at the downloadable map, I am confused by an unlabeled land mass to the east of Half Moon Passage (east of Chisholm) and everything above Icewind Sea. It looks like more than half the planets population will line up as allied to Charis with the other either neutral or too busy at home to do much to stop them.

In Charis and Siddarma, the industrial base can make lots of guns, bullets, canteens and cook ware, etc... all the tools the army needs but how does that translate to the civilian population??

I can see a continuation of ship building, victory ships and war ships and soon enough space ships, rail roads and, if I read it right, a canal from Gulf of Mathyas to Silkiah Bay (though it would be a lot less work if they went through North Watch.

I can also see the development of Lighter than Air ships. We now know that the hydrogen is safer than many other fuels if precautions are taken (http://safety.lovetoknow.com/Hydrogen_Hazards) and I am sure that Charis could develop them with Owl to help.

Possibly electricity, telegraph and telephone but not radio or cell phones because they would want to keep the electronic noise down till they were really ready to meet the Gabbia...

How do they get back into space? No need (really) to waste time with the early rockets.
Are they highly public or is it "out of sight out of mind"?

Comments?

Sending the MHoG home regardless of what the aristocrats want would be one way to force social change, wouldn't it? Imagine Rainbow Waters gathering his army along with his artillery and marching home. Not much could stop him. If he could keep from being assassinated, he ought to be able to kick the reactionaries arses for them.

Don

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As I was reading the previous book, it occurred to me that Rainbow Waters was in a really good position to cross the Rubicon (okay, I was thinking Napoleon but the Roman phenomenon is a better fit). I think the ending more strongly implied he'd just stay in South Harchong, which would become a more "modern" state.

Is Harchong a bureaucracy all the way up or is there an Emperor perched on top? It's got really solid oriental vibes but I can't remember if it does to that extent. If the Church had been serving as the Head of State, they may find they need an Emperor since the Church will be stepping back from the business of running countries.

noblehunter wrote:As I was reading the previous book, it occurred to me that Rainbow Waters was in a really good position to cross the Rubicon (okay, I was thinking Napoleon but the Roman phenomenon is a better fit). I think the ending more strongly implied he'd just stay in South Harchong, which would become a more "modern" state.

Is Harchong a bureaucracy all the way up or is there an Emperor perched on top? It's got really solid oriental vibes but I can't remember if it does to that extent. If the Church had been serving as the Head of State, they may find they need an Emperor since the Church will be stepping back from the business of running countries.

Emperor iirc Waisu is on top, so long as he does what the bureaucrats tell him to.

phillies wrote:Emperor iirc Waisu is on top, so long as he does what the bureaucrats tell him to.

Pretty much this. The current Harchong Emperor is just a figurehead.

Rainbow Waters COULD become a new Emperor if he chooses to. And I suspect that what happens next is what he CHOOSES to do. The options seem to boil down to...

1) Take over all of Harchong. This is almost certainly going to involve a bloody civil war in North Harchong, the kind of class warfare Merlin and the others have talked about it. Earl Rainbow Waters if he remains unassassinated may well be the only person who can mitigate the violence to prevent bloodshed on the scale of the Sword of Schueler.
Pros: North Harchong MIGHT get reformed.
Cons: North Harchong might NOT get reformed. Plus Rainbow Waters would likely need CoGA support at least initially, which he might not get because the last thing the CoGA is going to want is to be seen touching off another bloody conflict.

2) Take South Harchong, secede from the North, and declare himself Emperor.
Pros: Probably the safest option for him personally and the one least likely to touch off a civil war. The North has nothing to match the Mighty Host in terms of military effectiveness.
Cons: The North remains mired in hellish serfdom.

3) Return to Harchong and disband the Host.
Pros: They all went home.
Cons: Harchong is all but guaranteed to explode in bloody civil war and Earl Rainbow Waters likely won't be a mitigating factor even assuming he remains unassassinated.

4) Form his own country. Instead of returning to Harchong, the Mighty Host is settled some place where they (hopefully) won't cause trouble.
Pros: Most likely to avert a bloody Harchong civil war.
Cons: No guarantee the Mighty Host would do it. They'll want to return home. And even if they do settle somewhere, where are they going to settle? Who's going to give up territory to them even if that territory is unconsecrated wilderness?

evilauthor wrote:

phillies wrote:Emperor iirc Waisu is on top, so long as he does what the bureaucrats tell him to.

Pretty much this. The current Harchong Emperor is just a figurehead.

Rainbow Waters COULD become a new Emperor if he chooses to. And I suspect that what happens next is what he CHOOSES to do. The options seem to boil down to...

1) Take over all of Harchong. This is almost certainly going to involve a bloody civil war in North Harchong, the kind of class warfare Merlin and the others have talked about it. Earl Rainbow Waters if he remains unassassinated may well be the only person who can mitigate the violence to prevent bloodshed on the scale of the Sword of Schueler.
Pros: North Harchong MIGHT get reformed.
Cons: North Harchong might NOT get reformed. Plus Rainbow Waters would likely need CoGA support at least initially, which he might not get because the last thing the CoGA is going to want is to be seen touching off another bloody conflict.

2) Take South Harchong, secede from the North, and declare himself Emperor.
Pros: Probably the safest option for him personally and the one least likely to touch off a civil war. The North has nothing to match the Mighty Host in terms of military effectiveness.
Cons: The North remains mired in hellish serfdom.

3) Return to Harchong and disband the Host.
Pros: They all went home.
Cons: Harchong is all but guaranteed to explode in bloody civil war and Earl Rainbow Waters likely won't be a mitigating factor even assuming he remains unassassinated.

4) Form his own country. Instead of returning to Harchong, the Mighty Host is settled some place where they (hopefully) won't cause trouble.
Pros: Most likely to avert a bloody Harchong civil war.
Cons: No guarantee the Mighty Host would do it. They'll want to return home. And even if they do settle somewhere, where are they going to settle? Who's going to give up territory to them even if that territory is unconsecrated wilderness?

Nice bunch of options, any of which could lead to a nice side story or 2 for the Safehold world.

EvilAuthor
Settling the Mighty Host somewhere, attractive as it sounds, looks like a non-starter. I forget the exact figures, but 1 Million+ men need a whole lot of ground plus lots of logistic support while they set themselves up, vastly more if it's on unconsecrated ground. Then they also need 1 Million+ women. Where are they coming from? NTM many of them have wives and children back in N Harchong and they all have extended families there. Are their owners going to agree to losing even more serfs and who will pay for their transport and feeding even if the landowners agree? The MHoGA plus the reinforcements that are on the way/in training are a really difficult problem whichever way you approach it. Siddarmark is the last place that will want them. And wherever they go, who pays?

n7axw wrote:Sending the MHoG home regardless of what the aristocrats want would be one way to force social change, wouldn't it? Imagine Rainbow Waters gathering his army along with his artillery and marching home. Not much could stop him. If he could keep from being assassinated, he ought to be able to kick the reactionaries arses for them.

Don

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I don't think anything could stop him and, I think that he is popular enough with his troupers and subordinate officers that any assassin would have a real challenge to get to him.

I know he is not ready to embrace the idea of setting she serfs free or of turning his entire social system on it's head but... maybe if a seijin were to stop by and have a cup of tea and explain some of the advantages to him...

It seems obvious that the Mighty Host would be called home as the boarder states will not want them hanging around and they might take all their toys because they were supplied by his nation but that is a can of worms.

noblehunter wrote:As I was reading the previous book, it occurred to me that Rainbow Waters was in a really good position to cross the Rubicon (okay, I was thinking Napoleon but the Roman phenomenon is a better fit). I think the ending more strongly implied he'd just stay in South Harchong, which would become a more "modern" state.

Is Harchong a bureaucracy all the way up or is there an Emperor perched on top? It's got really solid oriental vibes but I can't remember if it does to that extent. If the Church had been serving as the Head of State, they may find they need an Emperor since the Church will be stepping back from the business of running countries.

I would agree strongly that he would find a more comfortable fit in the south but, I don't know where his family is and... if in the north, he might want to rescue his sister first.
There is an emperor at the top but all decisions (short of what shoes he will wear)are made by a very entrenched and corruptible bureaucracy which is not only worse in the north but more supportive of the church and repressive of the serf population.

Rainbow Waters would be a moderate by Charis standards but a raving progressive by the status quo in the north.

He also will see the advantages to the improvements that Charis can offer so, if I were on the inner circle steering committee... I would be giving him all sorts of things to think about on his way home.

I have suggested in other threads that Rainbow Waters conquers Desnair. Siddermark and Charis would facilitate travel to the South just to get those trained troops away from Sidermark's borders. South Harchong would provide support as a means of acquiring Desnair's wealth. North Harchong would expand their Empire AND keep those troops as far away from home as possible. Duchairn wouldn't support the move but also couldn't prevent it, if Emperor Waisu ordered it. I suspect that the Northern Harchong clergy would see attacking Desnair as a way to vent their spleen on a worthy target.

Incorporating Desnair into the Empire serves to find space for those troops where their experience wouldn't disrupt the homeland. Given the wall between Desnair and South Harchong, the two empires have butted heads in the recent past. Further given Desnair's displayed incompetence in fighting a modern war, Waisu would rightfully see this as a short victorious war.

Actually, he would be made to see it as a not so short victorious war. The bureaucracy would make the war last longer than it needs to for two reasons. First, the longer the war lasts, the more of those soldiers who might disrupt the Empire will die. Second, the longer the war lasts, the more graft the bureaucracy can skim off the top. Also, the merchant families of the South will keep peculation to a minimum, so the war will need to be lengthened to fatten their purses suitably. Afterall, most of the bureaucracy have already gotten too used to the amount of graft available from the jihad to forego the prospects of continuing the cash flow.

That sort of treatment would disillusion the MH soldiers even more. Toss in Duke Kohlman wheedling weapons from Cayleb to sell to worthwhile Desnairians and the war lasts even longer. Desnair as a society is shattered. South Harchong has to expand its industry massively to support the war. That expansion would require even more liberation of serfs into the manufactories. Heck, liberated would be more productive if they were actually paid for their work. The mercantile families would recognize this quite readily.

That leaves North Harchong completely isolated as every other polity on is Safehold changing. If Charis directs its attention at North Harchong's serfs, North Harchong would find their own internal social upheaval to deal with. The good news from a Charisian/Inner Circle perspective is that the fight to free serfs and slaves is a moral imperative. The consequences to those that would keep God's children shackled is secondary to the imperative to free those people. If Duchairn tries to defend slaveholders, he loses whatever moral authority he gained after his coup against Clyntahn. The same applies to any Archangel/virtual personality that awakens and tries to turn back the clock should the serfs and slaves of Safehold have been emancipated before the Awakening. Any Archangel that demands God's children be enslaved would be suspect.

Anyway, that seems a likely direction this story will take.

Randomiser wrote:EvilAuthor
Settling the Mighty Host somewhere, attractive as it sounds, looks like a non-starter. I forget the exact figures, but 1 Million+ men need a whole lot of ground plus lots of logistic support while they set themselves up, vastly more if it's on unconsecrated ground. Then they also need 1 Million+ women. Where are they coming from? NTM many of them have wives and children back in N Harchong and they all have extended families there. Are their owners going to agree to losing even more serfs and who will pay for their transport and feeding even if the landowners agree? The MHoGA plus the reinforcements that are on the way/in training are a really difficult problem whichever way you approach it. Siddarmark is the last place that will want them. And wherever they go, who pays?