Intelligence Failures After Zanzibar

* I'd like to thank Star Knight for recommending what promises to be a very informative read. No doubt a bestseller. I truly wish I could get my hands on a copy.

Either chapter can be discussed. However, the one that has always stuck in my craw is the "presumed" intelligence failures suggested by Chapter 2. I know that Hemphill bore the weight of what she considers her own intelligence failures. Yet I could never agree with her.

For one, she was kept rather busy - in a heated battle with the ingenuity of Shannon Foraker while trying to retain the initiative.

Is it your own failure or the brilliance of your enemy? IINM, the common assumption was predicated on the fact that enormous funds were being channeled "somewhere" and should have alerted Manty intelligence. Yet, the "black hole" could have been anything. I just don't see how this can be considered a screw up by the Manties rather than a success by the Havenites.

Star Knight wrote:How to screw up by the numbers: Failures at the Battle of Manticore
by Dame Alice Truman

Chapter 1: Lack of Preparedness
Chapter 2: Intelligence failures after Zanzibar
Chapter 3: Strategic blunders before Lovat
Chapter 4: Not Rolling Pods
Chapter 5: Engagement Ranges
Chapter 6: How not to use Apollo
Chapter 7: The necessity of screening units
Chapter 8: The lack of proper LAC deployments
Chapter 9: At least we had Honor


Voodoo economics: The miracle of Grayson naval construction
by Benjamin IX

* viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8203&start=27

cthia wrote:* I'd like to thank Star Knight for recommending what promises to be a very informative read. No doubt a bestseller. I truly wish I could get my hands on a copy.

Either chapter can be discussed. However, the one that has always stuck in my craw is the "presumed" intelligence failures suggested by Chapter 2. I know that Hemphill bore the weight of what she considers her own intelligence failures. Yet I could never agree with her.

For one, she was kept rather busy - in a heated battle with the ingenuity of Shannon Foraker while trying to retain the initiative.

Is it your own failure or the brilliance of your enemy? IINM, the common assumption was predicated on the fact that enormous funds were being channeled "somewhere" and should have alerted Manty intelligence. Yet, the "black hole" could have been anything. I just don't see how this can be considered a screw up by the Manties rather than a success by the Havenites.

The "Intelligence failures after Zanzibar" that kzt was talking about isn't that Foraker helped invent the capability gap closing designs that let Haven suck the Mantie defenders into a vulnerable position then re-ammo and wipe them out.
It was that (as David later explained in a post here) that to do that Haven had to quite visibly demonstrate the capability of the tractor multiplying Donkey, and the vastly increased number of deployed pods it let RHN SD(P)s stack for massive alpha salvos.

Manticore got a very painful first-hand look at Haven's podnaughts new ability to tow and fire multiple very heavy missile salvos - far more than Manticore could have done before their self-tractoring pods. So even if Manticore didn't know how Haven did that, they had to know Haven now could stack and tow far more pods than anybody could using only ship's tractors.

That capability has major impacts on tactical options, and should have altered Home Fleet's combat plans. They held off on firing to get the best shot they could, partly because they assumed that Haven couldn't tow enough pods to decimate Home Fleet in a single launch, and then they'd have to delay to stack more pods or go to lighter salvos. But based on how they'd been hit at Zanzibar they should have known that wasn't true. The counter to the ability to deeply stack pods is to start firing earlier and force the enemy to fire (or lose) the already deployed pods and stop deeply stacking the rest of their loadout. But that's not what Home Fleet did.

We were led to believe that the Donkey was just as much of a surprise to them as it was to the readers -- except David went back and said, nope Manticore saw it before at Zanzibar.


KZT's takeaway is that Manticore suffered a massive intelligence failure. My takeaway is that the post needed editing and that had the battle made it into a short story or flashback after the BoM was written he'd have tweaked it so Haven didn't actually reveal the secret of the donkey there - so it was a surprise to Manticore at BoM (just like it seemed in the book)

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:* I'd like to thank Star Knight for recommending what promises to be a very informative read. No doubt a bestseller. I truly wish I could get my hands on a copy.

Either chapter can be discussed. However, the one that has always stuck in my craw is the "presumed" intelligence failures suggested by Chapter 2. I know that Hemphill bore the weight of what she considers her own intelligence failures. Yet I could never agree with her.

For one, she was kept rather busy - in a heated battle with the ingenuity of Shannon Foraker while trying to retain the initiative.

Is it your own failure or the brilliance of your enemy? IINM, the common assumption was predicated on the fact that enormous funds were being channeled "somewhere" and should have alerted Manty intelligence. Yet, the "black hole" could have been anything. I just don't see how this can be considered a screw up by the Manties rather than a success by the Havenites.

The "Intelligence failures after Zanzibar" that kzt was talking about isn't that Foraker helped invent the capability gap closing designs that let Haven suck the Mantie defenders into a vulnerable position then re-ammo and wipe them out.
It was that (as David later explained in a post here) that to do that Haven had to quite visibly demonstrate the capability of the tractor multiplying Donkey, and the vastly increased number of deployed pods it let RHN SD(P)s stack for massive alpha salvos.

Manticore got a very painful first-hand look at Haven's podnaughts new ability to tow and fire multiple very heavy missile salvos - far more than Manticore could have done before their self-tractoring pods. So even if Manticore didn't know how Haven did that, they had to know Haven now could stack and tow far more pods than anybody could using only ship's tractors.

That capability has major impacts on tactical options, and should have altered Home Fleet's combat plans. They held off on firing to get the best shot they could, partly because they assumed that Haven couldn't tow enough pods to decimate Home Fleet in a single launch, and then they'd have to delay to stack more pods or go to lighter salvos. But based on how they'd been hit at Zanzibar they should have known that wasn't true. The counter to the ability to deeply stack pods is to start firing earlier and force the enemy to fire (or lose) the already deployed pods and stop deeply stacking the rest of their loadout. But that's not what Home Fleet did.

We were led to believe that the Donkey was just as much of a surprise to them as it was to the readers -- except David went back and said, nope Manticore saw it before at Zanzibar.


KZT's takeaway is that Manticore suffered a massive intelligence failure. My takeaway is that the post needed editing and that had the battle made it into a short story or flashback after the BoM was written he'd have tweaked it so Haven didn't actually reveal the secret of the donkey there - so it was a surprise to Manticore at BoM (just like it seemed in the book)

KZT = Star Knight?

Apology for equating the intelligence failure with the success of Bolthole.

Yea, I remember the donkey being used before.

Not to mention, It was only HOME fleet, protecting MANTICORE. You can understand how they just couldn't afford to have any of their magic recon drones ready to be deployed given that this system was totally unimportant and was just so damn far from the factories.

I hate that awful book.

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:* I'd like to thank Star Knight for recommending what promises to be a very informative read. No doubt a bestseller. I truly wish I could get my hands on a copy.

[snip]

The "Intelligence failures after Zanzibar" that kzt was talking about [...]

cthia wrote:KZT = Star Knight?

Apology for equating the intelligence failure with the success of Bolthole.

Yea, I remember the donkey being used before.

Oops. I didn't double check who you were thanking. I'm used to seeing that from Kzt (see his post above this. But yes, I tend to agree with him that there were quite suboptimal tactics used in parts of that battle; even if the knowledge of the Donkey was still unknown). So I just assumed he'd written the post you were quoting and didn't scroll back up to double-check.

Sorry about that Star Knight; I didn't mean to ignore your contribution.

Jonathan_S wrote:KZT's takeaway is that Manticore suffered a massive intelligence failure. My takeaway is that the post needed editing and that had the battle made it into a short story or flashback after the BoM was written he'd have tweaked it so Haven didn't actually reveal the secret of the donkey there - so it was a surprise to Manticore at BoM (just like it seemed in the book)

Jub exactly.
I just included it since for some reason kzt wont shut up about it

On the other hand, without donkey the complete destruction of the RMN fleet at Second Zanzibar is implausible.
At Solon the two Invicti of BatDiv 61.1 went up against six Sovereign of Space Class SD(P) and survived (with heavy damage to Intolerant) while the RHN wallers run out of ammunition.
Granted, BatDiv 61.1 had Keyhole 2 and was supported by an entire LAC Squadron and screening units. But its not like RMN wallers stood alone at Zanzibar.
From what we know the 11 SD(P) were supported by 7 conventional wallers, a BatCruRon, a CruDiv, about 700 modern LACs and fixed defenses.
Even without Keyhole 2, that force should have been able to stand up against RHN 32 SD(P) and and at least fight each other to mutual destruction.
Without donkey there is pretty much no way for the RHN to blow through the RMN force and have enough firepower remaining to take on any inner system fixed defenses.

Hell, even with donkey it doesnt make much sense.
Just look at what happened at First Manticore.
Toruville took 240 SDP against Home Fleets 42 SDP/48 SD.
Thats 2.66 SD(P) for every waller the RMN had.
(lets ignore the 100 BC/CA Tourville had against the pitiful RMN screen)
At Zanzibar on the other hand he only had 1.77 SD(P)s for every Manticoran waller while the Manticoran wall was significantly more modern (more SDPs) at Zanzibar than at First Manticore.

Home Fleet fired one salvo at Manticore. It destroyed 97 of Tourvilles SD(P)s outright and damaged all but 11 of its remaining total of 240 wallers. Thats close to 96 percent of his entire force damaged or destroyed.
With one salvo.
But he rolled over a comparatively stronger and modern force at Zanzibar with a comparatively much, much weaker screen?

I tried to find RFCs post about the battle some time ago but didnt. Would be interesting to know if the RMN CO there was smoking the same stuff as Kuzak.
Or Markham at Basilisk. But thats another story.

Star Knight wrote:I tried to find RFCs post about the battle some time ago but didnt. Would be interesting to know if the RMN CO there was smoking the same stuff as Kuzak.
Or Markham at Basilisk. But thats another story.

I believe this is it from May 31, 2012 in Question about Battleships

Heh, I forgot it was directly in response to kzt complaining about the battle.

Who else? thx

How the hell could Toruvilles force survive a lengthy engagement with 11 RMN wallers? Honors salvo at Giscard had little trouble penetrating his defenses at Solon with 2 SD(P)against 6, why wouldnt 11 SD(P) backed up by 7 SD no be able to go through 32 in a lengthy all-in engagement?
Just focus fire on one or two wallers, i cant see RHN defenses standing up against the concentrated fire of two Medusa Battle Squadrons. Lacs or no Lacs.

It's too quiet, so time to stir the pot.

So how come the Haven was able to effectively target the orbital infrastructure of Zanzibar from outside effective Mk23 range and yet couldn't do it against Sphinx?

Were they wiling to risk an Edict violation over some no-name wide spot in the road? That doesn't make any sense. So obviously they felt highly confident that they could safely blow up stuff in orbit around Zanzibar without risking an oopsie, and do it from at least 60 million km away.

So why didn't they do this when it counted? They were deep within effective range of Sphinx and could have blown up something like 40% of Manticore's industrial base right there. And as Manticore had plenty of time to evacuate, no massive civilian casualties.

kzt wrote:It's too quiet, so time to stir the pot.

So how come the Haven was able to effectively target the orbital infrastructure of Zanzibar from outside effective Mk23 range and yet couldn't do it against Sphinx?

Were they wiling to risk an Edict violation over some no-name wide spot in the road? That doesn't make any sense. So obviously they felt highly confident that they could safely blow up stuff in orbit around Zanzibar without risking an oopsie, and do it from at least 60 million km away.

So why didn't they do this when it counted? They were deep within effective range of Sphinx and could have blown up something like 40% of Manticore's industrial base right there. And as Manticore had plenty of time to evacuate, no massive civilian casualties.

By the same token, why didn't the Sphinx fixed defenses, with accurate tactical data sent from drones via FTL, fire MDMs with long ballistic phases to winnow Tourville's forces after home fleet got smashed and Tourville was too far away to effectively respond? They knew if he wasn't stopped he would just reload and come back and take out the defenses, why not take the opportunity to damage him further, even if most shots missed. It would be hours before Tourville's fleet could complete crossing the resonance zone, hyper out, rearm, and return - hours in which ammo ships could replace any expended pods - and more.

Or what if the RMN ships with keyhole 1 rolled ship and faced their wedges towards the incomming missile hoards?

we could do this all day.

The battle has plotholes so large an SD squadron with full tactical recon screen could pass through in formation without scraping the sides. David's writing is usually tight, this plot driven book stands out.