Do the Allies *need* to go on the offensive?

There won't be a creation of WW I tactics. The armies are too small and the size of the territory to vast for that.

Rather than frontally assaulting the mighty host, concentrate on isolating the TLs in two ways. First, get Silkiah and Dohlar out of the war. No need to worry about S. Harchong except to make sure they are isolated and cannot contribute to the war effort. Doing this reduces the TLs to N. Harchong and the Temple lands.

Secondly find weak spots in Rainbow Waters supply lines and punch a powerful allied army across it and begin working south toward the weaker end of Harchongian forces along Langhorne Canal. Lack of supplies will force Rainbow waters out of his entrenchments into the open where more nimble allied armies can get at him.

Don

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Spoilers
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How about this as a strategy.

(using extended book previews on Amazon and Google)

We know that Narhman, Nynian and Merlin are (thru disinformation to trusted Inquisition spies in Sidmark[ATSoT]) encouraging Rainbow Waters to weaken his Forces, particularly the reserves dedicated to the strategic offense part of his tactical defense/strategic offense strategy[ATSoT]. We know this because the Church's Army of God are slated to "fill-in" for those forces, though they will be arriving later than the possible start of the spring campaign[ATSoT].

We know that dynamite rockets could be available in the spring.[HFQ}

We know that the aerial balloons for spotting will be available in the spring.[ATSoT]

So in the time gap between weakening the reserves and the Army of God being available, the following happens.

Along one or two sections of Rainbow Waters front, a hurricane bombardment of dynamite rockets on strong points plus regular artillery on the rest smashes the first layer of defenses.

Charisian and Sidmark forces (infantry plus artilery and rockt forces) advance with the Balloon Corp rising up and providing spotting. Again using dynamite rockets on strong points plus regular artillery on the rest, smash the second layer. Advance to the next layer

Repeat until the Charisian and Sidmark forces have broken thru the the layered defense.

Now use the mounted infantry to smash Rainbow Waters rear areas and supply and potentially seizing the Langhorne Canal.

Continue on to the Temple? Smash up the hastily advancing (but potentially not fully trained) Army of God coming to Rainbow Waters aid?

(Not sure beyond getting thru the front. feel free to speculate)

There are several ways to defeat the Jihadis militarily. Steaming into Temple Bay is the most direct. Yet, the Inner Circle have concerns with what the Sleeper will do when confronted by a direct attack on the Temple. The same can be said about any other successful attack that asserts military force directly upon the Temple. So, even though a military defeat is highly possible, will the Allies pursue that end?

I suspect that given that risk, the Inner Circle will argue for the Allies settling for something short of complete military victory.

The Allies could do as Don suggested, then use that advantage to secure concessions in a peace treaty. They could also force the MH to operate more actively to place greater pressure on the Church to maintain unsustainable expenditures to support the jihad. Let the Church crumble upon itself and come to the Allies begging for peace. They could do both things by attacking the supply lines and then forcing the MH into attacking fortified positions the Allies have fortified. force the expenditures of lives and treasure the CoGA cannot replace.

The combination of having supported a jihad that will quickly become accepted as unjust, the economic pressures of improved Siddermark and Charisian production and the return of so many trained soldiers will quickly spark all sorts of social changes in Harchong. These changes will happen in both North and South Harchong, but only South Harchong will be equipped to navigate those changes.
The temple Lands will face a failed Harchong state to their West, a Siddermark that will remain hostile of not actively belligerent to their East. The economic disruption they face will massive.

Navigating all that will generate huge changes. So, the initial question can be slightly amended. Do the Allies need to press for a military victory to achieve their near term goal?

Alistair wrote:Also remember the Chisholm Nobels they might need a Brigade or two to deal with them if they go for a revolt next year.

Or a seijin visiting the Nobles' castles at night.

SPOILERS

Based on what I've read in the Amazon preview:

Rainbow Waters is going to get flanked from the north, based on disinformation provided through the Siddermarkian spy.

Yes, Dohlar and South Harchong will be eliminated as sources of supply, but that won't affect things significantly for about a year. Too much can happen in that year, so the CE will try the flanking maneuver.

That's the strategy. As to the tactics, and what weapons/information sources/resources will be used, who knows. Balloons, yes. Other new stuff? We'll see.

Two five-days plus four and counting down...

PeterZ wrote:There are several ways to defeat the Jihadis militarily. Steaming into Temple Bay is the most direct. Yet, the Inner Circle have concerns with what the Sleeper will do when confronted by a direct attack on the Temple. The same can be said about any other successful attack that asserts military force directly upon the Temple. So, even though a military defeat is highly possible, will the Allies pursue that end?

I suspect that given that risk, the Inner Circle will argue for the Allies settling for something short of complete military victory.

The Allies could do as Don suggested, then use that advantage to secure concessions in a peace treaty. They could also force the MH to operate more actively to place greater pressure on the Church to maintain unsustainable expenditures to support the jihad. Let the Church crumble upon itself and come to the Allies begging for peace. They could do both things by attacking the supply lines and then forcing the MH into attacking fortified positions the Allies have fortified. force the expenditures of lives and treasure the CoGA cannot replace.

The combination of having supported a jihad that will quickly become accepted as unjust, the economic pressures of improved Siddermark and Charisian production and the return of so many trained soldiers will quickly spark all sorts of social changes in Harchong. These changes will happen in both North and South Harchong, but only South Harchong will be equipped to navigate those changes.
The temple Lands will face a failed Harchong state to their West, a Siddermark that will remain hostile of not actively belligerent to their East. The economic disruption they face will massive.

Navigating all that will generate huge changes. So, the initial question can be slightly amended. Do the Allies need to press for a military victory to achieve their near term goal?

Yes. Military victory is neccessary. Without it the main issues would remain unresolved. But I am willing to conceed that victory might not mean over running Zion.

Don

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Agreed, yes, military victory is necessary. The Group of Four has to go in a sufficiently decisive manner that there can be no disputing the fact that the CoGA is under new management. In particular, Clyntahn owes blood guilt to so many people that I think there must be no opportunity whatsoever for any future doubt in the minds of anyone except lunatics and conspiracy theorists that he is dead, dead, dead.

As for the others, I'd be prepared to see Trynair confined in a monastery provided that it was sufficiently isolated from anywhere of significant importance, but I think the other two need to go as well. And the Vicar-General also needs to go. Mere figure-head or not, he's irredeemably soiled by his association with the Go4.

And none of that's going to happen without an inarguable and acknowledged military victory.
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Will a peace treaty that acknowledges the CoGA's guilt in starting the unjust jihad and acknowledges the legitimacy of the CoC and EoC be sufficient? Will it be sufficient absent that unquestionable military victory?

One suspects getting such concessions without a military hammer to pound it through the CoGA's hierarchy might be more reliable. They will have accepted the course on their own.

Peter2 wrote:Agreed, yes, military victory is necessary. The Group of Four has to go in a sufficiently decisive manner that there can be no disputing the fact that the CoGA is under new management. In particular, Clyntahn owes blood guilt to so many people that I think there must be no opportunity whatsoever for any future doubt in the minds of anyone except lunatics and conspiracy theorists that he is dead, dead, dead.

As for the others, I'd be prepared to see Trynair confined in a monastery provided that it was sufficiently isolated from anywhere of significant importance, but I think the other two need to go as well. And the Vicar-General also needs to go. Mere figure-head or not, he's irredeemably soiled by his association with the Go4.

And none of that's going to happen without an inarguable and acknowledged military victory.
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I am thinking about the rather unsatisfactory to WW I that in essence left Germany intact to fall into the clutches of Hitler and the Nazis...we didn't REALLY lose...the Jews betrayed us sort of thing.

For a satisfactory peace there must be...

1.the current leadership if the COGA must go and be replaced by reformists.

2.the armed forces of the COGA must be dismantled and the size of armies permitted its allies severely reduced.

3.there must be public confession of who launched the war.

4.there must be war crimes trials that establishes responsibility for atrocities in Siddarmark and appropiate punishment for the same.

5.the coercive power of the inquisition must be broken.

6.the COGA must recognize that its monopoly on representing God is forfeit and be willing to live with other expressions of belief.

I don't see either Stohner or Cayleb as being willing to settle for less. This has been a savage war for survival with the COGA being the aggressor at every turn, every step of the way. THis is not a proper time for making nice for the sake of peace.

Don

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Like WWI the jihad will leave several key issues unresolved. The Proscriptions and the Truth being the most important. No amount of military supremacy will persuade Safehold that their history is false. Unless that history is discredited, there will always be a significant segment of the population that will view technology as the devil's work. That segment will likely be a majority of Safehold at first and may never stop being a majority.

If loyalists remain a majority or large plurality, Safehold will always remain divided. I wonder if the Inner Circle will decide to wait for the return in order to discredit the Command staff and the false history of Safehold? Yes, that is risky. However, if the Inner Circle succeeds, defeating the Gbaba becomes easier. Not easy but easier.