Discussions on raiding...

We all know that as of ART the mandarins had agreed, after Rajani's death, to move forward with the new SLN CNO's plan of raiding. My read was that he meant not just commerce raiding but also raiding star systems to tie down as much of the alliance fleet as possible. With that in mind, how successful do we think this will be?

The stated plan wasn't to commit anything bigger and badder than a SLN battlecruiser with ideas of acceleration rates and such in mind. We know how big and bad the alliance units are, and most systems have a respectable LAC defense force that is only going to get stronger. So even with a flotilla of battlecruisers to launch at a system for raiding purposes will they be successful?

My immediate feel from a reread of ART was that they'll get reamed. We already know that several books before ART the LACs tore apart the Havenite ships, and now we're several generations later with a lot of improvements. Granted that many of the alliance star systems aren't going to have front line LACs but what they have are still going to be pretty impressive compared to the SLN ships. With that in mind, and knowing that the analyst who accompanied the new CNO to meet with the mandarins is working for the Alignment, is this just another method of frittering away the SLN strength and helping it to fail?

Much already discussed about this. Depends upon how bad the Sollies want to win. Kinetic planetary surface strikes come to mind using kamikaze or robotic entire ships moving in stone cold/stealth ed condition at high fractional cee velocities.

Figure about 50 ships per core Grand Alliance planet. All time on target coming in out of the elliptic. The average or even superior planetary defense systems would be overwhelmed. It only takes one strike. Even debris would do the job. Uncivilized indeed.

Fireflair wrote:We all know that as of ART the mandarins had agreed, after Rajani's death, to move forward with the new SLN CNO's plan of raiding. My read was that he meant not just commerce raiding but also raiding star systems to tie down as much of the alliance fleet as possible. ...

With that in mind, and knowing that the analyst who accompanied the new CNO to meet with the mandarins is working for the Alignment, is this just another method of frittering away the SLN strength and helping it to fail?

Like there was never a Case Buccaneer? Like the Republic of Haven has no experience raiding commerce and infrastructure. Oh, and SEM Cargo ships are such easy targets floating in orbit around [your planet of choice]after Lacoon 1. I know lets hit the backward religious fanatics at Yeltsin. I bet they're a soft target. Ooh, ooh, Basilisk! there's a soft target.

RoH may have lots of soft fat targets, Maybe even the Anderman Empire, I suppose an armada of 500 BCs could do serious damage to orbital platforms and asteroid mining/processing. plenty of soft targets too in Silesia and Talbott. Not a lot of serious destruction in Talbott though.

Yeah, a good way to bleed off ships and leave SL systems unprotected. Give some good news: "Gee we really kicked Nuncio's a**" That'll show those darned Manties.

Fireflair wrote:The stated plan wasn't to commit anything bigger and badder than a SLN battlecruiser with ideas of acceleration rates and such in mind. We know how big and bad the alliance units are, and most systems have a respectable LAC defense force that is only going to get stronger. So even with a flotilla of battlecruisers to launch at a system for raiding purposes will they be successful?

My immediate feel from a reread of ART was that they'll get reamed. We already know that several books before ART the LACs tore apart the Havenite ships, and now we're several generations later with a lot of improvements. Granted that many of the alliance star systems aren't going to have front line LACs but what they have are still going to be pretty impressive compared to the SLN ships.

Well, keep in mind that the original LAC strikes in Echoes of Honor hit 3 squadrons of (very old) Triumphant Battleships, with 100 LACs, and they were taking near crippling losses even before the idiot got command and ordered the Battleships to scatter. Battleships, and their smaller sisters the Battlecruiser are considered capital ships and would/should have screen which will aid in LAC defense after the first encounters.


Uh, been a while since I read the relevant segments for Henke, but I think she short-stopped two divisions (so 4 CLACs) that were supposed to drop their broods off to four independant systems in the Talbott Quadrant. One CLAC brood per system in otherwords, and Manticoran CLAC's still hew roughly to 100 to 120 LAC's per carrier.


Now if 3 squadrons of old-style Battleships can stand off 100 LAC's, even the totally inept Sollies should be able to send in a force of battlecruisers and come out, mission more or less successful with an acceptable loss ratio as a whole. The Solarian Navy, if you combine both Battle and Frontier Fleet, should be able to field more battlecruisers than the entire Grand Alliance has in superdreadnoughts.

So even losing the odd dozen BC's here and there is acceptable if it means those numerically inferior superdreadnoughts have to be assigned to defend systems, instead of out smashing Solarian systems.



The biggest problem the Mandarin's actually face, albeit still unknowingly at this point, is they surely must still be in the war mentality from the early First Haven War, and the bunker mentality that existed then. Nowadays the Manticoran Empire actually doesn't have all that many allies that aren't capable of self-defense on their own such as Zanzibar, Yorik, Alizon, etc.

Grayson, Haven, and Manticore all now think in deep penetration strikes, rather than "take the first trench line, reload on bullets and beans, THEN take the second trench line" that they used to. So the early Solarian raids are almost undoubtedly going to hit the systems that are closest to a Solarian fleet base, while the Grand Alliance 'raids' are going to hit the fleet bases directly without stopping on the way.

Which draws the question.... how many fleet bases are the Mandarins going to lose, before they realize they just stuck their reproductive organs into an electrical socket that the GA has a finger on the power switch?

HB of CJ wrote:Much already discussed about this. Depends upon how bad the Sollies want to win. Kinetic planetary surface strikes come to mind using kamikaze or robotic entire ships moving in stone cold/stealth ed condition at high fractional cee velocities.

Figure about 50 ships per core Grand Alliance planet. All time on target coming in out of the elliptic. The average or even superior planetary defense systems would be overwhelmed. It only takes one strike. Even debris would do the job. Uncivilized indeed.

1. This is a complete and utter violation of the Eridani Edict. There is literally no weaseling out of this like in SoV. This is exactly the kind of thing the Edict prohibits.

2. The vast majority of the SLN would mutiny if given such an illegal order.

3. In the face of a successful Edict violation, the Alliance would, regretfully but resolutely, launch reprisal attacks to make sure the League gets the message that they do not want to pull this shit.

4. The League has a lot more space to cover than the Alliance, with proportionally fewer ships to do it with, plus the Alliance already controls the wormhole network, thus the Alliance would be in a far better position to launch reprisals than the League can launch into Alliance territory.

5. The Alliance has far better ships than the League, so they're far more likely to succeed in launching their reprisals.

6. In the face of all of the above, the vast majority of the League members would quickly secede in order to prove that they didn't have anything to do with any Edict violations.

7. Finally, the Mandarins know all of this. It would be the height of monumental stupidity above and beyond what the League has already exhibited to execute Edict violations. Your plan guarantees the League's destruction, not save it.

Somtaaw wrote:Well, keep in mind that the original LAC strikes in Echoes of Honor hit 3 squadrons of (very old) Triumphant Battleships, with 100 LACs, and they were taking near crippling losses even before the idiot got command and ordered the Battleships to scatter. Battleships, and their smaller sisters the Battlecruiser are considered capital ships and would/should have screen which will aid in LAC defense after the first encounters.

[...]

Now if 3 squadrons of old-style Battleships can stand off 100 LAC's, even the totally inept Sollies should be able to send in a force of battlecruisers and come out, mission more or less successful with an acceptable loss ratio as a whole.

I'd guess that Haven's last battleships are technologically equivalent to earlier flight Indefatigable BCs on a ton-to-ton basis. Certainly, once the lethargic launcher cycle times of Solly ships are factored in.

2nd Hancock saw 4 BB squadrons, not 3. 33 BBs total, plus 18 cruisers or destroyers. So 2 million tons of LACs was able to shatter a 150 million ton fleet. For >50% losses granted, but that is still an unsustainable exchange ratio.

In order to replicate that defeat, the Sollies would have to shove between 100 and 200 BCs plus screen at any of those single systems. The BBs at 2nd Hancock even brought along pods - for all the good it did them, as the Shrikes got close enough to destroy the pods.

Accounting for improved Shrike-Bs supported by Ferrets and Katanas, plus system defense pods substituting for wallers, the potential slaughter becomes assured.

Solly raiding is riding a busted flush down in flames. All it will accomplish is to provoke the RMN into neutralising Frontier Fleet bases, if they aren't already on the way.

Which draws the question.... how many fleet bases are the Mandarins going to lose, before they realize they just stuck their reproductive organs into an electrical socket that the GA has a finger on the power switch?

Possibly all of them, at least in the Frontier. No doubt, they'd find out in a polite note from Ambassador Carmichael!

Somtaaw wrote:Well, keep in mind that the original LAC strikes in Echoes of Honor hit 3 squadrons of (very old) Triumphant Battleships, with 100 LACs, and they were taking near crippling losses even before the idiot got command and ordered the Battleships to scatter. Battleships, and their smaller sisters the Battlecruiser are considered capital ships and would/should have screen which will aid in LAC defense after the first encounters.


Uh, been a while since I read the relevant segments for Henke, but I think she short-stopped two divisions (so 4 CLACs) that were supposed to drop their broods off to four independant systems in the Talbott Quadrant. One CLAC brood per system in otherwords, and Manticoran CLAC's still hew roughly to 100 to 120 LAC's per carrier.


Now if 3 squadrons of old-style Battleships can stand off 100 LAC's, even the totally inept Sollies should be able to send in a force of battlecruisers and come out, mission more or less successful with an acceptable loss ratio as a whole. The Solarian Navy, if you combine both Battle and Frontier Fleet, should be able to field more battlecruisers than the entire Grand Alliance has in superdreadnoughts.

So even losing the odd dozen BC's here and there is acceptable if it means those numerically inferior superdreadnoughts have to be assigned to defend systems, instead of out smashing Solarian systems.



The biggest problem the Mandarin's actually face, albeit still unknowingly at this point, is they surely must still be in the war mentality from the early First Haven War, and the bunker mentality that existed then. Nowadays the Manticoran Empire actually doesn't have all that many allies that aren't capable of self-defense on their own such as Zanzibar, Yorik, Alizon, etc.

Grayson, Haven, and Manticore all now think in deep penetration strikes, rather than "take the first trench line, reload on bullets and beans, THEN take the second trench line" that they used to. So the early Solarian raids are almost undoubtedly going to hit the systems that are closest to a Solarian fleet base, while the Grand Alliance 'raids' are going to hit the fleet bases directly without stopping on the way.

Which draws the question.... how many fleet bases are the Mandarins going to lose, before they realize they just stuck their reproductive organs into an electrical socket that the GA has a finger on the power switch?

First, it was 4 squadrons of BBs (plus a spare)

Echoes of Honor wrote:Yes, they'd left the ships of the wall behind, but not before their fire, coupled with those incredible missiles coming in from the lone dreadnought so far astern of her— and, of course, the LACs—had killed another four battleships. That made nine gone out of thirty-three, with all of the survivors damaged. All the tin cans were gone, as well, and only two heavy cruisers remained to her, both badly damaged.

So the LACs only had a 3-to-1 advantage in numbers over the BBs, ignoring their (admittedly light) BC and CA escort.
BCs are far smaller and weaker than BBs, the Nevada's are around 0.9 mtons, while the Triumphant-class BBs are over 4 times that size, 4.5 mtons. That size, armoring, and tougher sidewalls counts for a lot in terms of surviving BC grade graser fire. Plus the SLN is unlikely to, initially, be sending 4+ squadrons (with escorts) against minor systems.

But I think even 32 - 40 BCs would be in a world of hurt if they ran into even 100 RMN LACs. But RMN practice isn't to deploy LACs alone, or necessarily only 1 CLACs worth of LACs based in a system. So the SLN raiding force seems likely to run into more LACs, and face a coordinated 1st strike of LACs and MDMs pods (so far more than the 9 MDMs HMS Minotaur could throw at a time )

Unless they hit systems that literally haven't had time to receive their initial defensive emplacements (or attempt to raid RMN shipping in neutral Verge systems) they're likely to get badly chewed up. As for Haven's systems, their LACs aren't as good, but even their minor systems got shoals of MDM pods. They might not all have Moriarty for syncronized (if laggy) control, but even without that a few freighters worth of their MDM pods will tear up BC scale raiders - at least ones smaller and with weaker defenses than Nikes and Agamemnons.

In addition to everyone else's comments. There is the time factor.

Ships sent to raid Talbott will take 3 months to deploy and 6 months to recall. Silesia, Basilisk or Haven will take ~ 6 months to reach without using wormholes and 12 months to recall.

Any ships sent on raiding missions are essentially out of the war for massive periods of time. In addition, they will require complete fleet trains to suport them, as they are months away from resupply and repair, and their current basing system is completely useless for deep raids.

So raiding will tie up massive amounts of resources which will be out of communication range for large portions of a year, and essentially out of the greater war for that period.

munroburton wrote:

Somtaaw wrote:Well, keep in mind that the original LAC strikes in Echoes of Honor hit 3 squadrons of (very old) Triumphant Battleships, with 100 LACs, and they were taking near crippling losses even before the idiot got command and ordered the Battleships to scatter. Battleships, and their smaller sisters the Battlecruiser are considered capital ships and would/should have screen which will aid in LAC defense after the first encounters.

[...]

Now if 3 squadrons of old-style Battleships can stand off 100 LAC's, even the totally inept Sollies should be able to send in a force of battlecruisers and come out, mission more or less successful with an acceptable loss ratio as a whole.

I'd guess that Haven's last battleships are technologically equivalent to earlier flight Indefatigable BCs on a ton-to-ton basis. Certainly, once the lethargic launcher cycle times of Solly ships are factored in.

2nd Hancock saw 4 BB squadrons, not 3. 33 BBs total, plus 18 cruisers or destroyers. So 2 million tons of LACs was able to shatter a 150 million ton fleet. For >50% losses granted, but that is still an unsustainable exchange ratio.

In order to replicate that defeat, the Sollies would have to shove between 100 and 200 BCs plus screen at any of those single systems. The BBs at 2nd Hancock even brought along pods - for all the good it did them, as the Shrikes got close enough to destroy the pods.

Accounting for improved Shrike-Bs supported by Ferrets and Katanas, plus system defense pods substituting for wallers, the potential slaughter becomes assured.

Solly raiding is riding a busted flush down in flames. All it will accomplish is to provoke the RMN into neutralising Frontier Fleet bases, if they aren't already on the way.

Which draws the question.... how many fleet bases are the Mandarins going to lose, before they realize they just stuck their reproductive organs into an electrical socket that the GA has a finger on the power switch?

Possibly all of them, at least in the Frontier. No doubt, they'd find out in a polite note from Ambassador Carmichael!

I stand corrected on the BB ship count, I thought it was 3 but 4 isn't too much different.

And Jon, you're right that the Triumphant's are both larger, and tougher than the Indefatiguables, but it's also about the closest comparison we can really get. In theory, the League has enough BC's to throw a hundred or two BC's at a system under the guise of raiding in force. A raid is a raid, whether you send six ships, or six hundred ships if that's what it takes to complete the raid.

Now granted, at Hancock the BB's didn't use their pods because the Shrikes snuck in and did an alpha strike on the pods first, but I'm also predicting a longer campaign. The first raids are going to be horrible losses, but even bunglers like the Mandarins and senior SLN staff have to learn something from all the mistakes they keep making. After all, in every single engagement to date, the only one they've won was Byng's Massacre; even the Masadan's ineptly crewing Thunder learned faster.

So, in theory anyways, if at first 40 BC's don't do the job, they'll repeat Rampaging Justice writ small, scrape up an enormous battlecruiser fleet and send it somewhere as a raid.

Jonathan_S wrote:As for Haven's systems, their LACs aren't as good, but even their minor systems got shoals of MDM pods. They might not all have Moriarty for syncronized (if laggy) control, but even without that a few freighters worth of their MDM pods will tear up BC scale raiders - at least ones smaller and with weaker defenses than Nikes and Agamemnons.

Haven had the same problem with system defense pods manticore did, thats why... I think it was Gaston? The initial two strikes of Cutworm hit systems that had one of the Havenite system defense staff bitching because (paraphrased because I can't find the exact quote) "chances are Supply would have been sending us their regrets to supply our pods again this month".

And the systems targetted in early Cutworm's were politically important systems to the Republic, but not critically important to warrant real defenses. Which indicates the Republic of Haven actually has a considerable amount of their systems that have little to zero defense, based upon their military, political and economic importance & war contributions. Low or negative contributor systems would have the little to zero defense, the high end gets most of it because they warrant it. All of which indicates Haven's willing to sacrifice a low-importance system for short periods, rather than risk a high-importance system being successfully hit with anything less than a major strike.

Somtaaw wrote:Haven had the same problem with system defense pods manticore did, thats why... I think it was Gaston? The initial two strikes of Cutworm hit systems that had one of the Havenite system defense staff bitching because (paraphrased because I can't find the exact quote) "chances are Supply would have been sending us their regrets to supply our pods again this month".

AAC, chapter 20:

He understood Inchman's frustration—and anger—perfectly. The additional pods they'd been promised would have increased their long-range missile power hugely. Then again, they'd been "promised" for quite some time.

"I know, Sir. It's just—" Inchman bit off what she'd been about to say, and Beach sighed.

"They're shipping them to the front line systems as quickly as they can, Sandra. Someone's got to suck hind teat when quantities are limited. And to be fair, if you'd been in charge of prioritizing deliveries, would you have predicted an attack on Gaston, of all damned places?"

Things are a lot different now than when Cutworm was launched. There's been an extended period of time where Manticore and Haven weren't shooting each other. That's plenty of time to emplace system defense pods to all their secondary and tertiary systems, not to mention decent sized LAC wings.

Also note that they're talking about additional pods. They already a decent number of defensive pods lying around; they just wanted more of them.