Do the Allies *need* to go on the offensive?

I do agree that there's little reason to go on the offensive against the Mighty Host. Keep them contained, push elsewhere and wait out their supplies or for them to be pulled back.

Find a way to disrupt their supplies and wreck the canals.

ssl4000g wrote:The Chisholmian nobles, as you say, are under the watchful eye of the 'irregular sources' and will likely go down like the Corisandians, although I could see it getting a bit more hairy than the Corisande episode.

A bit, yes. Charis was able to pounce before the Northern Conspiracy was ready to act, and Charis's timing on when to pounce was determined by the need for full damning evidence that could be presented in court, the requirement that Grand Duke Zebediah commit himself in a manner that provided proof of his involvement, and getting the modern weapons after they were delivered to Corisande but before they could be distributed to to the rebels.

Timing in Chisholm is likely to be tighter, with a short window to deploy troops if/when the noble idiots decide to pull the trigger. (I would not be surprised if some discreet movement of training cadre units has been taking place to leave them positioned closer to the respecive nobles they might have to chastise.)

RW, you have a good point in his getting creative (as he had done in HFQ) but you are right, the Loyal Sons of Mother Church are just that, no matter what.

The trick is the distinction between Mother Church and the Grand Inquisitor, which the allies have been making at every chance they get. What does Rainbow Waters do if he finally decides Zhaspar Clyntahn doesn't speak for God and the Archangels, and is the worst thing to happen to Mother Church in its history? While I don't expect to see it, a possible reaction might be "I'll do what the Grand Vicar says. I will no longer follow the orders of the Grand Inquisitor, because he is leading Mother Church to ruin!"

Clyntahn, from the snippet, called them demons. Your point about him going catatonic, which I feel is more likely based on his past behavior and twisted rationalizing imo, is likely.

It's one way things like that can break. But I don't expect to see it, for dramatic reasons.

Clyntahn has stored up a world of hurt for himself. I don't know what RFC has in mind for him, but I'll be startled if it doesn't involve something like Cayleb, Sharleyan, Stonhar, Irys Daikyn, Nynian Rychtair and others all assembling in the Plaza of Martyrs to tell Clyntahn "We're here to watch you hang like the common criminal you have proven yourself to be, and we'll drink beer, eat fried potato slices, and all go pee on your grave after." Being close enough to watch his face when God and the Archangels don't intervene with a miracle to save him, and the realization that when he presents his accounts to God, his eternal destination might not be the one he expected would be priceless.

Which leaves Rayno with a huge problem. Does he cover that up? Can it be covered up? What action, if any, will Rayno take? What about Magwair and Duchairn? Rayno never wanted the Harchongians armed and they are now the Church's sword. Rayno is a Harchongian noble, right?

Rayno's Archbishopric is nominally located in Harchong, but Mother Church has taken pains over its history to move rising prelates around and break any nationalist ties they may have. I don't believe Rayno has actually been in Harchong in a long time.

What actions, if any, can Rayno take?

One thing discussed elsewhere here is what happens if Clyntahn is removed. Suddenly, there is no Grand Inquisitor. That position is filled by an election by the Vicarate. Who calls it? Who might be running for the office? What are the minimum requirements to hold the office? Offhand, I'd say being a Vicar would be one. It's already been made clear that Archbishop is as far as Rayno could rise. He made too many enemies on his way up, will never be made a Vicar, and everything he is, he is by Clyntahn's favor.

Can Rayno effectively take command of the Inquisition if something happens to Clyntahn and continue what it was doing? And if he can grab the reins and hold on, what does he do? We've gotten hints he isn't entirely pleased with what Clyntahn has been doing. But he's also been point man in raising up and training more Inquisitors who will be the sort of fanatics that will do things like staff the Inquisition's camps and like it. Some of his own people might refuse to obey if he does try to back off.

If Clyntahn is removed from the equation, I can see Duchairn and Magwair taking steps to wind down the Jihad, and Duchairn sending cautious messages to the EoC about surrender. (He'd be less concerned about his head, and more concerned about keeping Mother Church from collapsing completely with catastrophic results for those who live in the Temple Lands.)
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Dennis

Yes Dennis, the training cadre being moved closer makes sense, right after the 'irregular sources' confirm it. Tight? We'll have to see. It would be rather dull for it to be just like Corisande. I feel there will be a surprising twist in there, especially for Sharleyan.

I know you don't expect to see it but, if Rainbow Waters decides to listen to the Grand Vicar, has Trynair (who I believe is responsible as the Grand Vicar's puppet master) seen the Light so to speak and side with Magwair and Duchairn? Trynair's been especially quiet lately and it makes you wonder a bit what's going through his mind.

Your take on Clyntahn with the Allies watching, making sure payback is given, would be the proper resolution. Although Nimue (I believe in one of the snippets) asked Clyntahn if he wanted to meet the Archangels, could that scenario still be possible? It seems to indicate that there may be something else up RFC's sleeve. Unless I read the wrong thing into that snippet.

For Rayno, I am not inclined to think that because he hasn't been in Harchong for a long time matters. He still has ties there and doesn't want to see the serfs upset the status quo that is there because of the training the Jihad is providing.

I would also agree with you on Duchairn reaching out to EoC. However, Duchairn had been covertly planning and we still don't know what those plans are/were. Maybe it is to sabotage Clyntahn and reach out to EoC. Could it be anything else?

The Saint Thurmyn incident has Rayno spooked, since he can find no evidence of similarities in any of the Church's texts. Rayno may be more of a wildcard even though he has no upward movement in the Church hierarchy. He has tons of loyal Inquisitors as you mentioned. Rayno may not try to back off. There is opportunity if Clyntahn is gone. No upward mobility, a loyal cadre of fanatical Inquisitors as a base, perceived weakness in Duchairn, Magwair and Trynair. Could he take the opportunity to remake or take over and absorb Clyntahn's support base and generate his own upward mobility? The Wylsynns are gone, all the Reformists are gone.

W

ssl4000g wrote:[snip]

The Saint Thurmyn incident has Rayno spooked, since he can find no evidence of similarities in any of the Church's texts. Rayno may be more of a wildcard even though he has no upward movement in the Church hierarchy. He has tons of loyal Inquisitors as you mentioned. Rayno may not try to back off. There is opportunity if Clyntahn is gone. No upward mobility, a loyal cadre of fanatical Inquisitors as a base, perceived weakness in Duchairn, Magwair and Trynair. Could he take the opportunity to remake or take over and absorb Clyntahn's support base and generate his own upward mobility? The Wylsynns are gone, all the Reformists are gone.

W

There is one Wylsynn left – with a very important paperweight. I am wondering if that might just possibly contain files which, when operated on by "the thing in the Temple basement" would regenerate the personalities of the Archangels, complete with holograms. In the couple of centuries following the Archangels departure, the CoGA hierarchy significantly altered its style of governance, and there is no certainty that even Chihiro would approve of the changes, far less what Clyntahn has done. It would be delicious to have the Archangels turn up and metaphorically "tear him a new one." There could be no mistaking them because Clyntahn has had ample opportunity to inspect their statues.

Probably just wishful thinking, though
.

ssl4000g wrote:Yes Dennis, the training cadre being moved closer makes sense, right after the 'irregular sources' confirm it. Tight? We'll have to see. It would be rather dull for it to be just like Corisande. I feel there will be a surprising twist in there, especially for Sharleyan.

Quite possible. She's taking risks, and knows it, but she's counting on those "irregular sources" to give her advance warning. (She doesn't really need to see the noble's correspondence. Any sort of contemplated uprising will require deploying masses of armed men to do the uprising, and the SNARCs can likely give Sharleyan a pretty good count of exactly how many armed retainers the nobles have and where they are.

I know you don't expect to see it but, if Rainbow Waters decides to listen to the Grand Vicar, has Trynair (who I believe is responsible as the Grand Vicar's puppet master) seen the Light so to speak and side with Magwair and Duchairn? Trynair's been especially quiet lately and it makes you wonder a bit what's going through his mind.

What's going through Trynair's mind is survival. He's in terror of Clyntahn. He is the one the Grand Vicar listens to, and I have wondered what might happen if the Grand Vicar called a meeting of the Vicarate, sat on Langhorne's Throne, and announced that Zhaspar Clyntahn was formally removed as Grand Inquisitor and was to be put on trial for numerous offenses.

What I suspect Trynair fears would happen is Clyntahn murdering him and the Grand Inquisitor, and assuming dictatorial control control of the Temple and Mother Church, with the Inquisition to enforce his wishes.

Your take on Clyntahn with the Allies watching, making sure payback is given, would be the proper resolution. Although Nimue (I believe in one of the snippets) asked Clyntahn if he wanted to meet the Archangels, could that scenario still be possible? It seems to indicate that there may be something else up RFC's sleeve. Unless I read the wrong thing into that snippet.

That depends on just what she means about meeting the Archangels. She does specify no physical harm will come to Clyntahn.

It sounds like Clyntahn is likely to be shown the true history of Safehold, with full A/V support, and what he makes of it will be a good question.

It's been suggested elsewhere that Charis has found a way to unlock Father Paityr's Key, and there is likely all manner of interesting stuff tucked way in it.

For Rayno, I am not inclined to think that because he hasn't been in Harchong for a long time matters. He still has ties there and doesn't want to see the serfs upset the status quo that is there because of the training the Jihad is providing.

Agreed, but there's still the question of what he can actually do. Another complication is the precise composition of Harchong society. There's a difference between a serf and a peasant, and one thing that has been an issue in Earth history has been precisely that distinction. Peasants look down on serfs, and anything that might change a serf's status for the better will be seen as a threat by the peasant. It's one of the things that would make the wheels coming off the cart in North Harchong especially nasty.

I would also agree with you on Duchairn reaching out to EoC. However, Duchairn had been covertly planning and we still don't know what those plans are/were. Maybe it is to sabotage Clyntahn and reach out to EoC. Could it be anything else?

I think Duchairn sees only ruin and destruction in the path Clyntahn is leading Mother Church down. But unlike most of the Vicarate, Duchairn has concerns beyond himself. He's trying to save Mother Church and those who live under her, but he has to be alive to do anything effective.

I've little doubt he'd be delighted to sabotage Clyntahn, but how, exactly, can he do so? The Inquisition is keeping a very close eye on him, and Clyntahn will have him arrested and subjected the the Punishment in a heartbeat if he does anything that looks like sabotage. Duchairn would be willing to die for his cause if he thought the effort that would get him killed would succeed

The Saint Thurmyn incident has Rayno spooked, since he can find no evidence of similarities in any of the Church's texts. Rayno may be more of a wildcard even though he has no upward movement in the Church hierarchy. He has tons of loyal Inquisitors as you mentioned. Rayno may not try to back off. There is opportunity if Clyntahn is gone. No upward mobility, a loyal cadre of fanatical Inquisitors as a base, perceived weakness in Duchairn, Magwair and Trynair. Could he take the opportunity to remake or take over and absorb Clyntahn's support base and generate his own upward mobility? The Wylsynns are gone, all the Reformists are gone.

Could he try? Possibly. Would he succeed? That's a thornier question.

Despite the state Mother Church and the Jihad are in, Rayno probably profoundly hopes nothing happens to Clyntahn. That sort of sudden power vacuum at the top when you are in a war for survival isn't a good thing for anyone on your side.
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Dennis

DMcCunney wrote:

ssl4000g wrote:I know you don't expect to see it but, if Rainbow Waters decides to listen to the Grand Vicar, has Trynair (who I believe is responsible as the Grand Vicar's puppet master) seen the Light so to speak and side with Magwair and Duchairn? Trynair's been especially quiet lately and it makes you wonder a bit what's going through his mind.

What's going through Trynair's mind is survival. He's in terror of Clyntahn. He is the one the Grand Inquisitor listens to, and I have wondered what might happen if the Grand Inquisitor called a meeting of the Vicarite, sat on Langhorne's Throne, and announced that Zhaspar Clyntahn was formally removed as Grand Inquisitor and was to be put on trial for numerous offenses.

What I suspect Trynair fears would happen is Clyntahn murdering him and the Grand Inquisitor, and assuming dictatorial control control of the Temple and Mother Church, with the Inquisition to enforce his wishes.

Dennis

In the highlighted cases, I think that you meant to say Grand Vicar, not Grand Inquisitor. Just a suspicion.


Regardless, I kind of doubt that the Grand Vicar would have the intestinal fortitude to do anything more than tie his shoe laces. After all, it's not like we've see any textev of him mattering in the least.

SNIP

DMcCunney wrote:

ssl4000g wrote:The Chisholmian nobles, as you say, are under the watchful eye of the 'irregular sources' and will likely go down like the Corisandians, although I could see it getting a bit more hairy than the Corisande episode.

A bit, yes. Charis was able to pounce before the Northern Conspiracy was ready to act, and Charis's timing on when to pounce was determined by the need for full damning evidence that could be presented in court, the requirement that Grand Duke Zebediah commit himself in a manner that provided proof of his involvement, and getting the modern weapons after they were delivered to Corisande but before they could be distributed to to the rebels.
Dennis

I personally don't think the risk is as great as you're making it out to be. The huge, almost incalculable advantage that Sharleyan has now that the Inner Circle didn't have in the Corisande affair is that Owl is now completely self aware and can easily keep track of even the most trivial sniff of rebellion as soon as it pops-up. I have little doubt that there are SNARC remotes "attached" to every conspirator... hearing what they say... Seeing what they write... And funneling it all to mother Owl who aggregates it all and prepares the real-time threat assessment.

Sharleyan has popular support, and also has the support of the army and navy. The conspirators can't even put together a larger, hidden group of armsmen without Owl knowing about it. And it's really hard to effect a coup-de-main without talking to anyone or without writing anything down.

Nope.

When it happens (and I believe it will in ATsT), I believe that Sharleyan's loyal forces will OWN the conspirators... But I'm looking forward to seeing how the loyal forces net them all in one fell swoop...

Quite possible. She's taking risks, and knows it, but she's counting on those "irregular sources" to give her advance warning. (She doesn't really need to see the noble's correspondence. Any sort of contemplated uprising will require deploying masses of armed men to do the uprising, and the SNARCs can likely give Sharleyan a pretty good count of exactly how many armed retainers the nobles have and where they are.

Agreed.

What's going through Trynair's mind is survival. He's in terror of Clyntahn. He is the one the Grand Inquisitor listens to, and I have wondered what might happen if the Grand Inquisitor called a meeting of the Vicarite, sat on Langhorne's Throne, and announced that Zhaspar Clyntahn was formally removed as Grand Inquisitor and was to be put on trial for numerous offenses.

What I suspect Trynair fears would happen is Clyntahn murdering him and the Grand Inquisitor, and assuming dictatorial control control of the Temple and Mother Church, with the Inquisition to enforce his wishes.

I haven't given much thought to Trynair since he went silent. I probably should have as you imply his silence is significant. That silence and his fears could make him a wild card.

That depends on just what she means about meeting the Archangels. She does specify no physical harm will come to Clyntahn.

It sounds like Clyntahn is likely to be shown the true history of Safehold, with full A/V support, and what he makes of it will be a good question.

It's been suggested elsewhere that Charis has found a way to unlock Father Paityr's Key, and there is likely all manner of interesting stuff tucked way in it.

Very interesting stuff Dennis. I didn't think about Nimue presenting with full A/V. That would indeed be interesting to see his reaction.

I did indeed forget about Paityr. I agree the Key is significant. I recall the Key being a problem to hack not their devising a way to hack it. That 12PB file I'm sure has some interesting things in it.

Agreed, but there's still the question of what he can actually do. Another complication is the precise composition of Harchong society. There's a difference between a serf and a peasant, and one thing that has been an issue in Earth history has been precisely that distinction. Peasants look down on serfs, and anything that might change a serf's status for the better will be seen as a threat by the peasant. It's one of the things that would make the wheels coming off the cart in North Harchong especially nasty.[/quote}

And the nobles too.

I think Duchairn sees only ruin and destruction in the path Clyntahn is leading Mother Church down. But unlike most of the Vicarate, Duchairn has concerns beyond himself. He's trying to save Mother Church and those who live under her, but he has to be alive to do anything effective.

Yes, he does see that. Which is why he's hung on so long and not confronted Clyntahn.

I've little doubt he'd be delighted to sabotage Clyntahn, but how, exactly, can he do so? The Inquisition is keeping a very close eye on him, and Clyntahn will have him arrested and subjected the the Punishment in a heartbeat if he does anything that looks like sabotage. Duchairn would be willing to die for his cause if he thought the effort that would get him killed would succeed

I believe fiscal collapse has been discussed here and by Duchairn in the text. No sabotage there. In fact, Duchairn has been very creative and in cases proactive. So there seems to be good reason for him to hang in there until he can do something that preserves Mother Church. I have to agree with you there.

Could he try? Possibly. Would he succeed? That's a thornier question.

Despite the state Mother Church and the Jihad are in, Rayno probably profoundly hopes nothing happens to Clyntahn. That sort of sudden power vacuum at the top when you are in a war for survival isn't a good thing for anyone on your side.
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Dennis

A power vacuum due to Clyntahns demise/removal is bad. I could see Magwair ordering all Inquisitors arrested, which would remove that threat/challenge, probably including Rayno. Then, as talked about previously, Duchairn suing for peace with EoC/Siddarmark and Mother Church doing what it can to be relevant in this new world order.

Many interesting thoughts you've thrown out Dennis. Sorry about the confusing layout. Still trying to figure out best way to build these reply posts. Audio forums don't require this kind of in depth responses so I never needed to learn the tricks.

W

Since I at least reference the strategic situation definitely Spoilers.
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With River Wind being dug in and well supplied to the north, plus outnumbering the EoC troops so handily, a strong offense on that front seems like a bad idea. Unless his forces can be flanked to the north, I see no percentage in attacking him beyond moving up to a long mutual engagement distance for protracted artillery duels in which the EoC's longer range might prove useful. Do not attack the enemy were he is strong, instead pin him down and make him come to you. Let the mighty host feed it's cannon fodder into your meat grinder and just keep turning the handle.

On the South yes press the offensive. Push where the numbers and the material favor you. Cut Silkiah out. Use combined land and sea interdiction to cutoff the South Harchong Empire from the North. Attack and take Dairnyth from the sea, then push up the Dairnyth-Aklesburg Canal to cut Dohlar out. Of course all of this requires gaining navel superiority from the Sea of Harchong all the way up to the Bay of Bess. We assume that the EoC can do this.
If they can, or just look like they can, than the CoGA will have little choice but to draw back out of the North and come running South to relieve the situation there.

And that's when you nail them, when they have to pull out of their strong positions into the chaos of a direction change.
This is when you slice the Langhorn, while the Mighty hosts is strung out along it trying to move south. Chop their movement then chop the pieces as opportunity allows.

Alternatively if you control the Gulf of Dohlar, you could instead launch an offensive straight into Malansath and the Temple Lands. That would really have Clynthan go nuts in panic. He'd start screaming for his loyal Harchongese soldiers to get back to cover that. And that would weaken the heck out of the Northern line fast.

Strategically you want to attack anywhere but in the North. Hey diddle diddle straight up the middle into prepared fortifications and artillery? No thank you. Hit the soft underbelly instead.

Larry