Solarian League Naval Strenght versus SLN Strength

Vince wrote:Italics are the author's, boldface is my emphasis. Blue text is a typo that sneaked through the editing process (Truman should be Trudeau, ...

I don't think that was a typo. I think it is just Adm Tsang not paying attention to the DB Skipper's name and getting it wrong.

Consider how the MWJ defenses are actually deployed. IIRC, the ready forts are outside of SDM missile ranges - so at least ten and probably fourteen million klicks away. Stood-down forts are even further away.

The SLN probably considered that outside combat range and given that forts are limited to 150g, thought they could evade them. So obviously, they weren't an obstacle to worry about.

munroburton wrote:Consider how the MWJ defenses are actually deployed. IIRC, the ready forts are outside of SDM missile ranges - so at least ten and probably fourteen million klicks away. Stood-down forts are even further away.

The SLN probably considered that outside combat range and given that forts are limited to 150g, thought they could evade them. So obviously, they weren't an obstacle to worry about.

And yet they knew that they could only put a limited number of Scientists through the Junction at a time--either individual units, one at a time, to face the Junction forts on their own, to avoid locking the Junction for the forces still in Beowulf to transit to Manticore. Or as a mass transit that would allow at best only a third of their total forces to transit the Junction to face the Junction forts, without the ability to retreat back to Beowulf, and with the rest of their forces left behind in Beowulf--for the 17 hours that a mass transit would lock down the Beowulf-Manticore hyper bridge.

And regardless of whether or not Tsang's forces transit individually or en mass, the SLN forces would be stuck in the exit transit lane for several minutes under Warshawski sail--completely undefended against any fire directed against them.

Vince wrote:

munroburton wrote:Consider how the MWJ defenses are actually deployed. IIRC, the ready forts are outside of SDM missile ranges - so at least ten and probably fourteen million klicks away. Stood-down forts are even further away.

The SLN probably considered that outside combat range and given that forts are limited to 150g, thought they could evade them. So obviously, they weren't an obstacle to worry about.

And yet they knew that they could only put a limited number of Scientists through the Junction at a time--either individual units, one at a time, to face the Junction forts on their own, to avoid locking the Junction for the forces still in Beowulf to transit to Manticore. Or as a mass transit that would allow at best only a third of their total forces to transit the Junction to face the Junction forts, without the ability to retreat back to Beowulf, and with the rest of their forces left behind in Beowulf--for the 17 hours that a mass transit would lock down the Beowulf-Manticore hyper bridge.

And regardless of whether or not Tsang's forces transit individually or en mass, the SLN forces would be stuck in the exit transit lane for several minutes under Warshawski sail--completely undefended against any fire directed against them.

My point is, they may not have believed anything was in range to engage them, however foolish that was of them.

It's never been established what Tsang's plan was, had she been allowed to transit unopposed. It's a given that a sequential or simultaneous transit would have been slaughter either way.

munroburton wrote:
My point is, they may not have believed anything was in range to engage them, however foolish that was of them.

It's never been established what Tsang's plan was, had she been allowed to transit unopposed. It's a given that a sequential or simultaneous transit would have been slaughter either way.

The main flaw in the plan was their assumption on how Manticore would react. They believed Manticore would fall apart and give up at the sudden attack from the junction. Any sensible plan would be based on the idea of the enemy will be doing everything possible to ruin your day permanently.

That dos not even touch the obvious issue that the RMN has planed for decades on the possibility having to defend both the Junction and Planets at the same time.

pnakasone wrote:

munroburton wrote:
My point is, they may not have believed anything was in range to engage them, however foolish that was of them.

It's never been established what Tsang's plan was, had she been allowed to transit unopposed. It's a given that a sequential or simultaneous transit would have been slaughter either way.

The main flaw in the plan was their assumption on how Manticore would react. They believed Manticore would fall apart and give up at the sudden attack from the junction. Any sensible plan would be based on the idea of the enemy will be doing everything possible to ruin your day permanently.

That dos not even touch the obvious issue that the RMN has planed for decades on the possibility having to defend both the Junction and Planets at the same time.

I wouldn't exactly agree that Manticore figured on defending both the Junction and their habitable planets simultaneously, otherwise their Home Fleet would have been at least twice as large as it ever was at it's peak. Most of their wargames were based around stopping Haven, who while they possibly could have threatened both, would have gone one or the other. And for a while, the physics meant Manticore could get away with hanging their Home Fleet on the Junction and actually guard the whole system better from out there (as detailed immediately prior to BoMa).

If Manticore ever truly planned for defending both the Junction, and their core planets, they were screwed. During BoMa, someone pointed out to either Honor or Truman about how they were uncovering Trevor's Star and the Peeps might be expecting that and planned to pounce.

And the return statement pointed out how Haven was already throwing 300 wallers at Manticore, so anything they'd sent at Trevor's Star as well meant they [Manticore] should be working on their surrender terms. I can't remember if that was before, or after Chin's Third Fleet had arrived for two full Havenite fleets already in Manticore and someone worrying they were ready to drop a third fleet on Trevor's Star.

But regardless, if Manticore ever had to [seriously] defend both, they'd be surrendering pretty damn quick assuming the tech was even remotely close to equal.

n7axw wrote:The League has never felt the need for intel before, at least on any existential level. To be sure they have intel structures, but they haven't been prioritized.

There are two things that come to the forefront as we encounter the League. The first is how everyone in the League, especially its military officers in the SLN, is impressed with the League's size. If you are so big that no one can threaten you, why worry overly much about intel? What the little people are up to can't hurt you, after all.

Secondly what the SLN is about more than war fighting is intramural infighting. Frontier Fleet is doing some serious work, of course. But far more important than defending the League (after all, who would dare attack?) is the slice of the budget pie available to the competing services, whose pockets get lined, etc....

Given all of that, it's not surprising that the SLN experienced a massive intel failure when confronted with a real situation over what was going on in the Haven sector. Doing serious intel was no longer the job they were accustomed to doing.

Solly citizens should be really, really pissed.

Don

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Your points are very well made. Additionally, the League has never had the need to develop an intel gathering capacity geared towards a major war-driven militarized opponent. League intel operations have always been exclusively geared towards shooting sitting ducks, by which I mean Verge governments waiting helplessly to be gobbled up by OFS.

THAT makes for a crucial difference, and coupled with League arrogance and self-delusion, a fatal one.

Nico wrote:Additionally, the League has never had the need to develop an intel gathering capacity geared towards a major war-driven militarized opponent. League intel operations have always been exclusively geared towards shooting sitting ducks, by which I mean Verge governments waiting helplessly to be gobbled up by OFS.

THAT makes for a crucial difference, and coupled with League arrogance and self-delusion, a fatal one.

No, they also pay attention to league members. there were comments made by SLN types that implied they were suspicious of some league SDFs and exactly what the government had in mind...

SLN ONI :

its job is simple , say that the SLN is the biggest baddest wolf. anyone with a diffrent oppinion gets dumped.

SLN ONI does not have a single secret agent, in fact SLN ONI does not look at anyone outside the solarian league.
SLN ONI does not have a function to get intel on enemy military at all.

SLN ONI does not have a functional counter espionage.

SLN ONI is just a junkpile to get rid of incompetent (by SLN opinion) officers.

so if even the SLN thinks ONI officers are useless...

The SLN sent News service DBs though into the Manticore wormhole and never thought to get any kind of information back before using ONE DB to be the notice that Fillerta had arrived and attacked? How tough to send a freighter with a powerful passive sensor array though about the same time as the DB and tight beam the readings from the sensors to the DB?

The DB isn't going to have much in sensor equipment even compaired to your average frighter. There are HOW MANY Forts in a very complicated dance around the Manticore Junction plus specifcaly assigned warships and shoals of mines. None of this is particularly hidden and the operating energy outputs of the Forts would be "interesting" even if they were in the stand-down portion of the long cycle to bring them through junction coverage.

I suspect that even to a Crusiers level of passive sensors, the sky around the Junction would have looked like the Union Army camped outside of Richmond at night as seen by a Confederate observation balloon.

....Ah, Captain, there are a whole lot of ships or forts out there and from the pattern it sure looks like they are all set up to shoot right where we are! If there is that weight of metal manuvering here, comming thought the Junction in a hostile action is going to be suicide..........The Admiral's ships are going to come floating in here- in a LINE- blind and unable to do anything and even if the Mantie's missles are only as good as ours, her ships are going to die by in the order they appear before they are even going to see what is comming at them. This is nuts.