Poor Transtellars -what are they going to do?

Hi all,

There are a lot of fascinating threads I haven't caught up on, even before RFC graced us with so many snippets; but I haven't noticed this topic before and it hasn't seemed to be addressed in SoV from all the comments [I bought the Earc, but I can't access my download] so here goes:

Consider the poor Transtellar, whose business model is based or predicated upon the SLN being the biggest baddest bully for forever to prop up the OFS robbery of hundreds, and soon [within the prolong lives of those now in power] to be expected thousand of 'neo-barb' star systems, with the transtellars all feasting on what such unlimited abuse of power can provide, so its smart to take advantage of all the opportunities such graft offers.

While individually relatively small the transtellars are collectively major players, and have more influence in the league especially in Old Chicago, than most small members, some having existed for several centuries.

While I suspect many if not most of the transtellars are actually owned by a much smaller group that began 'consolidating' before the rest realised that phase was already happening, thinking the expansion phase was going to continue since there seemed nothing to stop it.

But then there come uneasy reports of something impossible in some pathetic backwoods neo-barb system; a FF BC was destroyed by some neo-barbs despite everything it and 16 other FF BC's could do, in part because the nominal neo-barbs, the manties, cheated by using some longer ranged missiles they towed there in pods.

Then a couple monthes later a fleet of 71 BF SD's with screen is destroyed or captured in Spindle for no losses by the RMN.

Then there other engagements or rumors of the Mantie's demonstrating a vast superiority over the SLN, before the League attempts to take the SEM's home system and loses another 427 SD's for paltry losses by new 'grand alliance' the SEM has formed with the RoH.

While the mandarins may deny it, your own sources keep confirming all the incredible details [its unlikely the Malign controls all the transtellars and their own information sources and management etc], and Kingsford's description of being outclassed as 19th century infantry by the machine gun, has spread far and wide among those who have the acce$$ to who and what they deem important.

The SLN appears to be so outclassed, that the manties now seem able to do almost anything at will, unrestrained by anything the SLN or league tries to do..

Where does that leave the transtellars?

Will they attempt to preserve their assets in the verge and shells by offering their inside data on the league as Kolokoltsov fears?

Failing that, will they seek new weapons for the SLN, to make up the difference ASAP?

This is just a bare situation sketch to cover the basics, feel free to add your insights.

Your thoughts and wisdom will be appreciated.

L

I imagine they'll do one of three things:

(1) Panic, be unable to adapt to their new inability to exploit OFS, and go bankrupt. (This probably applies mostly to transstellars whose entire business model involves bribing OFS to exploit worlds on the edges of Solarian space.)

(2) Panic, be unable to adapt, but have a sufficiently strong economic base within the Solarian core that they survive in smaller, reduced form. (This probably applies to most of them.)

(3) Panic, get over it, and adapt to Manticoran control that will force them to play more fair with worlds they formerly exploited, reducing their profits but keeping at least some of them well within the margins of a survivable business model. (This probably applies to the ones who haven't done as much exploitation and thus won't be ceremoniously kicked out when OFS is expelled.)

You forgot a whole bunch of unplesant alternatives (well unplesant for the current owners/management). Remember this is a time of exestential crisis and Governments can do anything they want if it sounds reasonable in such situations.

1) Get nationalized by the government of whatever system they are registered in. They have to have a home system somewhere for tax evasion purposes.

2) Get dissected by the governments where they do business and broken up into little local shipping lines.

3) Be considered "too big to fail" and bailed out with public money but with several seats on the board being given to govt oversight persons.

4) Have thier books come into the open in a reasonably democratic core world (most are locally) which promptly uses this to fine them out of existance or apply one of the penalties above.

5) local successful revolutionary governments get independance and get thier hand on the books and fine them into oblivion/demand restitution. May not get paid but puts a crimp on ability to function in that neighbourhood.

6) Local governement sponsored firms and equivalents of the old Navigation acts destroy them. (imports must be in the hulls of either the home country or the exporting nation)

If all this seems unlikely just look at what happened to the East India Company that most of the transtellars in science fiction are clearly modeled on.

Silverwall wrote:You forgot a whole bunch of unplesant alternatives (well unplesant for the current owners/management). Remember this is a time of exestential crisis and Governments can do anything they want if it sounds reasonable in such situations.

1) Get nationalized by the government of whatever system they are registered in. They have to have a home system somewhere for tax evasion purposes.

2) Get dissected by the governments where they do business and broken up into little local shipping lines.

3) Be considered "too big to fail" and bailed out with public money but with several seats on the board being given to govt oversight persons.

4) Have thier books come into the open in a reasonably democratic core world (most are locally) which promptly uses this to fine them out of existance or apply one of the penalties above.

5) local successful revolutionary governments get independance and get thier hand on the books and fine them into oblivion/demand restitution. May not get paid but puts a crimp on ability to function in that neighbourhood.

6) Local governement sponsored firms and equivalents of the old Navigation acts destroy them. (imports must be in the hulls of either the home country or the exporting nation)

If all this seems unlikely just look at what happened to the East India Company that most of the transtellars in science fiction are clearly modeled on.

True. I had been thinking about what they might do, not what might be done to them. All of these are perfectly plausible, especially nationalization of assets (that plus fines will likely be the mechanism that kills most of them in places formerly controlled by OFS).

You're using EIC as a guide, I'm thinking more about what Mossadegh was trying to do to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, knowing that Manticore's presence means that there aren't going to be many reactionary, externally provoked coups.

As in the Iranian case prior to the coup, there may be some room for the transstellars to work with new Verge governments (hence my option #3) with the foreknowledge that they become subordinate partners. But that will depend both on the transstellars willingness to adapt to the new reality and to the new Verge governments to contract with people who had systematically exploited them for something between decades and centuries.

Given that there is no Manty transportation in the SL they can pretty much exploit the situation for the best profits. Lack of direct routes will increase transit time and make the situation even worse.

Something to keep in mind is that for every company up to its ears in OFS exploitation, there are probably 3 that _aren't_. Some will probably still be involved in the Verge. No doubt some of these are resented for taking every advantage they can squeeze out, but the relationship will be rather more like the better Rembrandt companies on Dresden - the locals are still benefiting from it and may want it to continue if they get better terms. Many others will have behaved perfectly well, if only because their home governments would hang them out to dry if they didn't, or not be in the Verge at all.

So the range of situations in which the transtellars find themselves is bound to be large.

Crown Loyalist wrote:

Silverwall wrote:You forgot a whole bunch of unplesant alternatives (well unplesant for the current owners/management). Remember this is a time of exestential crisis and Governments can do anything they want if it sounds reasonable in such situations.

1) Get nationalized by the government of whatever system they are registered in. They have to have a home system somewhere for tax evasion purposes.

2) Get dissected by the governments where they do business and broken up into little local shipping lines.

3) Be considered "too big to fail" and bailed out with public money but with several seats on the board being given to govt oversight persons.

4) Have thier books come into the open in a reasonably democratic core world (most are locally) which promptly uses this to fine them out of existance or apply one of the penalties above.

5) local successful revolutionary governments get independance and get thier hand on the books and fine them into oblivion/demand restitution. May not get paid but puts a crimp on ability to function in that neighbourhood.

6) Local governement sponsored firms and equivalents of the old Navigation acts destroy them. (imports must be in the hulls of either the home country or the exporting nation)

If all this seems unlikely just look at what happened to the East India Company that most of the transtellars in science fiction are clearly modeled on.

True. I had been thinking about what they might do, not what might be done to them. All of these are perfectly plausible, especially nationalization of assets (that plus fines will likely be the mechanism that kills most of them in places formerly controlled by OFS).

You're using EIC as a guide, I'm thinking more about what Mossadegh was trying to do to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, knowing that Manticore's presence means that there aren't going to be many reactionary, externally provoked coups.

As in the Iranian case prior to the coup, there may be some room for the transstellars to work with new Verge governments (hence my option #3) with the foreknowledge that they become subordinate partners. But that will depend both on the transstellars willingness to adapt to the new reality and to the new Verge governments to contract with people who had systematically exploited them for something between decades and centuries.

Or they can rip page 1 from the SLMC handbook:


Improvise Adapt Overcome

You just can't keep a good corporation down

WeirdlyWired wrote:Or they can rip page 1 from the SLMC handbook:


Improvise Adapt Overcome

You just can't keep a good corporation down

Helas,chou, Je m'en fache.

Google Translate:

Alas , cabbage, I am angry .

Vince wrote:

WeirdlyWired wrote:Or they can rip page 1 from the SLMC handbook:


Improvise Adapt Overcome

You just can't keep a good corporation down

Helas,chou, Je m'en fache.

Google Translate:

Alas , cabbage, I am angry .

Leave it to google translate to miss the nuances of idiom. chou= darling bonjour chou hello darling , Elle est tres chou she is so darling. Fache (dialect I learned) is a bit closer to P***ed (off),

Frankly, my dear, ...

There is another option, hire mercenaries. FF and BF are going to be busy fighting the Manties and the Manties cannot be everywhere at once. I have raised this issue before (http://forums.davidweber.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8142) but it seems to me that if the SLN is busy fighting a real war against a technologically superior opponent there is going to be very little that the League regulators can do to prevent The League's super rich (I.E. The folks who actually own and operate the transtellars) from buying ships, hiring mercenaries and go on their own sprees of conquest. It only takes one frigate in orbit to launch kinetic strikes and it seems like the wealthy elites of The League can afford to buy heavier hardware than that.