Do the Allies *need* to go on the offensive?

DMcCunney wrote:

Alistair wrote:Also remember the Chisholm Nobels they might need a Brigade or two to deal with them if they go for a revolt next year.

Chisholm still has the ICA training cadre of something like 20,000 and is busy training more recruits. If the Chisholmian nobles do try to revolt, it will end badly for them, and I doubt a brigade will need to be recalled from Siddarmark to see to it. And since the new recruits are folks like freed serfs from Zebediah who probably think becoming part of the ICA was the best thing to ever happen to their homeland, they'll be remarkably short of sympathy for the rebellious nobles.

The fact the potential rebels seem to think a revolt will produce anything other than their heads up on pikes in front of their own palaces speaks volumes about human stupidity. But then, if their experience with King Saillys and later with Queen Sharleyan didn't teach them anything, it's apparent they aren't capable of learning.
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Dennis

From this discussion in HFQ, the nobles will probably wait until the current training class has gone to Siddarmark before moving, when there is effectively NO military force left in Chisholm. I can see a chunk of the Corisandian army being used to suppress the rebellion.

fallsfromtrees wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:Chisholm still has the ICA training cadre of something like 20,000 and is busy training more recruits. If the Chisholmian nobles do try to revolt, it will end badly for them, and I doubt a brigade will need to be recalled from Siddarmark to see to it. And since the new recruits are folks like freed serfs from Zebediah who probably think becoming part of the ICA was the best thing to ever happen to their homeland, they'll be remarkably short of sympathy for the rebellious nobles.

<...>

From this discussion in HFQ, the nobles will probably wait until the current training class has gone to Siddarmark before moving, when there is effectively NO military force left in Chisholm. I can see a chunk of the Corisandian army being used to suppress the rebellion.

Unlikely. The training cadre will still be present, and that's hardly "effectively No military force". Training of new recruits is an ongoing process, so you can assume there will always be training taking place.

The thought did occur to me that Sir Koryn Gahvrai and his people might be just delighted to give Empress Sharleyan a hand if she felt she needed it, and they'd be rather more convenient to Chisholm than ICA formations deployed in Siddarmark. For that matter, given his own experience with the rebellious nobles of the Northern Conspiracy in Corisande , I can see Anvil Rock being disgruntled that his duties on Prince Daivyn's Regency Council wouldn't let him go along to help administer the object lesson.
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Dennis

Sharleyan has always had confidence that the training cadre would be available to quell any uprising by the nobles. She's just giving them enough rope to hang themselves as she has said more than once IIRC.

I am wondering too, with regard to whether or not BGV and Eastshare moves on the MHoG, whether the snippet we saw of Nimue and Zhaspahr will have an impact on that. If Zhaspahr is effectively removed from the game (maybe I am reading more into that snippet), what type of impact could that have on RW? RW's already questioned the quality of the orders he's received in HFQ.

W

ssl4000g wrote:Sharleyan has always had confidence that the training cadre would be available to quell any uprising by the nobles. She's just giving them enough rope to hang themselves as she has said more than once IIRC.

Especially since intel from those "irregular sources" will tell her exactly where she needs to deploy troops.

And what sort of armed forces could those nobles come up with, and what sort of equipment would they have? The Northern Conspiracy in Corisande recognized they would need to increase their numbers of armsmen and need modern weapons, and were counting on a popular uprising by Corisandians based on outrage over Prince Hector's murder. The Chisholm nobles certainly can't count on a popular uprising, might find it difficult to obtain things like Trapdoor Mahndrayns, and I don't see traditional feudal levies working out too well.

I am wondering too, with regard to whether or not BGV and Eastshare moves on the MHoG, whether the snippet we saw of Nimue and Zhaspahr will have an impact on that. If Zhaspahr is effectively removed from the game (maybe I am reading more into that snippet), what type of impact could that have on RW? RW's already questioned the quality of the orders he's received in HFQ.

Good question. He's loyal to Mother Church and the Jihad, but he's already seen orders from Zion based on what Clyntahn wants that make no military sense. The more of a beating Clyntahn's reputation takes, the more likely someone as smart as Rainbow Waters will be to start wondering whether the Grand Inquisitor really speaks for God and the Archangels, and whether the Jihad was necessary and a good idea. He might not actually disobey orders from Zion, but he might get creative in how he interprets them.

I'll be fascinated to see how Clyntahn reacts to Nimue's presentation. One possibility is he rejects it out of hand, with Nimue's graphic supporting evidence lies created by Shan Wei and Proctor. Another is that he believes it, realizes he's been totally wrong from the beginning, and his mind breaks and he retreats into catatonia. A third is that he believes it, but sees no choice but to carry on to the bitter end, because he's a dead man if the EoC wins. (And if he believes it when told the Archangels were no such thing, he might take the next step in deciding God doesn't exist, and at least he won't burn in Hell forever when he dies because there's no Hell to burn in.)
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Dennis

SNIP

ssl4000g wrote:Sharleyan has always had confidence that the training cadre would be available to quell any uprising by the nobles. She's just giving them enough rope to hang themselves as she has said more than once IIRC.

W

Now that I think about it - the cover of ATsT - it shows generic soldiers attacking a generic castle (or the like)... All of the speculation has been around whether this was an attack on the Temple / Zion or something like that. Maybe we've been looking at it wrong? Maybe it's an assault on a rebellious Chisholmian noble's estate?

DMcCunney wrote:Eastshare and Green Valley are likely to be content to keep the MHoG just where it is. The question is what they do instead. We may just see Earl Hanth get more attention in his slow drive to push Rychtyr back into Dohlor proper, and it is about time Silkiah got taken out of the equation.

And in another recent RFC snippet, we learn Earl Hanth got the artillery upgrades he was wishing for, and Cayleb is happy enough with what he's been doing that Earl Hanth might just become Duke Hanth. (And well deserved.) Rychtyr might just get pushed back into Dohlor itself, since lack of heavy angle guns was Hanth's biggest blocker. That might help, um, clarify Dohlor's attitude toward the Jihad and continued cooperation with Mother Church.
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Dennis

I agree with the general consensus here that the allies not charge into the strength of RW's defenses. If they can punch through someplace more weakly held and flank RW out of his prepared defenses, well and good. But otherwise not.

I also agree with tidying up in the south by knocking Dohlar out of the war, occupying Silkiah, and sealing off Howard from the main fronts. I disagree with the notion of invading South Harchong. Once they are safely isolated and can no longer supply the Temple, an invasion would be a waste of resourses along with unneccessarily antagonizing its people. The ICN can isolate South Harchong just fine with no need for boots on the ground.

As for the numbers, this next is just speculation but hopefully good speculation. Once Silkiah, Dohlar and Howard are neutralized, the population figures should be pretty close to even or at worst 1.5 to one in favor of the church. Estimating odds on dealing with armies is harder. We have thIs jaw dropping figure of 3 million men for the COGA. But adding in the regiments that the Protector is standing up, new recruits from the EOC including Gahrvai's Corisandians, I wouldn't be suprised by a total of over 1.5 million for the allies which would place the actual odds at about 2 to 1 for the church.

By the time you look at the fact that the allies have a huge advantage in fire power, the church's industrial base is shrinking, and her financial situation near collapse, things look pretty grim for the COGA.

Don

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n7axw wrote:I agree with the general consensus here that the allies not charge into the strength of RW's defenses. If they can punch through someplace more weakly held and flank RW out of his prepared defenses, well and good. But otherwise not.

That notion was mentioned in the most recent snippet, in terms of turning things into open field maneuvers where Charisian's superior mobility could be brought into play. There is no way anyone of the Charis side would want to try a frontal assault.

I also agree with tidying up in the south by knocking Dohlar out of the war, occupying Silkiah, and sealing off Howard from the main fronts. I disagree with the notion of invading South Harchong. Once they are safely isolated and can no longer supply the Temple, an invasion would be a waste of resources along with unnecessarily antagonizing its people. The ICN can isolate South Harchong just fine with no need for boots on the ground.

I missed suggestions of invading South Harchong, and concur it's unneeded. With the stresses applied by the progressive failure of the Jihad, I can see South Harchong seceding from the Harchong Empire and bowing out of the Jihad on their own.

(And speaking of tidying up, I'm a bit surprised the EoC hasn't already added the Duchy of Fallos to its fold.)

As for the numbers, this next is just speculation but hopefully good speculation. Once Silkiah, Dohlar and Howard are neutralized, the population figures should be pretty close to even or at worst 1.5 to one in favor of the church. Estimating odds on dealing with armies is harder. We have thIs jaw dropping figure of 3 million men for the COGA. But adding in the regiments that the Protector is standing up, new recruits from the EOC including Gahrvai's Corisandians, I wouldn't be surprised by a total of over 1.5 million for the allies which would place the actual odds at about 2 to 1 for the church.

3 million sounds jaw dropping, but as mentioned, something like 2/3 of them will be okay at holding a defensive position, but unsuited for offensive operations. That evens the odds beyond pure numbers.

By the time you look at the fact that the allies have a huge advantage in fire power, the church's industrial base is shrinking, and her financial situation near collapse, things look pretty grim for the COGA.

They've been doing that for a while. Clyntahn seems to be the only one who hasn't noticed, and even he is starting to experience doubts.
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Dennis

Now that I think about it - the cover of ATsT - it shows generic soldiers attacking a generic castle (or the like)... All of the speculation has been around whether this was an attack on the Temple / Zion or something like that. Maybe we've been looking at it wrong? Maybe it's an assault on a rebellious Chisholmian noble's estate?[/quote]



Saint Thurmyn's maybe?

W

DMcCunney wrote:

ssl4000g wrote:Sharleyan has always had confidence that the training cadre would be available to quell any uprising by the nobles. She's just giving them enough rope to hang themselves as she has said more than once IIRC.

Especially since intel from those "irregular sources" will tell her exactly where she needs to deploy troops.

And what sort of armed forces could those nobles come up with, and what sort of equipment would they have? The Northern Conspiracy in Corisande recognized they would need to increase their numbers of armsmen and need modern weapons, and were counting on a popular uprising by Corisandians based on outrage over Prince Hector's murder. The Chisholm nobles certainly can't count on a popular uprising, might find it difficult to obtain things like Trapdoor Mahndrayns, and I don't see traditional feudal levies working out too well.

I am wondering too, with regard to whether or not BGV and Eastshare moves on the MHoG, whether the snippet we saw of Nimue and Zhaspahr will have an impact on that. If Zhaspahr is effectively removed from the game (maybe I am reading more into that snippet), what type of impact could that have on RW? RW's already questioned the quality of the orders he's received in HFQ.

Good question. He's loyal to Mother Church and the Jihad, but he's already seen orders from Zion based on what Clyntahn wants that make no military sense. The more of a beating Clyntahn's reputation takes, the more likely someone as smart as Rainbow Waters will be to start wondering whether the Grand Inquisitor really speaks for God and the Archangels, and whether the Jihad was necessary and a good idea. He might not actually disobey orders from Zion, but he might get creative in how he interprets them.

I'll be fascinated to see how Clyntahn reacts to Nimue's presentation. One possibility is he rejects it out of hand, with Nimue's graphic supporting evidence lies created by Shan Wei and Proctor. Another is that he believes it, realizes he's been totally wrong from the beginning, and his mind breaks and he retreats into catatonia. A third is that he believes it, but sees no choice but to carry on to the bitter end, because he's a dead man if the EoC wins. (And if he believes it when told the Archangels were no such thing, he might take the next step in deciding God doesn't exist, and at least he won't burn in Hell forever when he dies because there's no Hell to burn in.)
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Dennis

The Chisholmian nobles, as you say, are under the watchful eye of the 'irregular sources' and will likely go down like the Corisandians, although I could see it getting a bit more hairy than the Corisande episode.

RW, you have a good point in his getting creative (as he had done in HFQ) but you are right, the Loyal Sons of Mother Church are just that, no matter what.

Clyntahn, from the snippet, called them demons. Your point about him going catatonic, which I feel is more likely based on his past behavior and twisted rationalizing imo, is likely.

Which leaves Rayno with a huge problem. Does he cover that up? Can it be covered up? What action, if any, will Rayno take? What about Magwair and Duchairn? Rayno never wanted the Harchongians armed and they are now the Church's sword. Rayno is a Harchongian noble, right?

Very complicated, at least from all the other textev that has presented, there are a number of ways this one could go.

The Saint Thurmyn's incident feels like a game changer for the Go4. Whether it's all down hill from there for them... 8 weeks till release.

I really can't wait to see how all that one goes down.

W