The E wrote:I wouldn't be so sure of that. Even if the german navy had gone all-in on submarines from the beginning, the main factors that led to the Reich's demise would have been unchanged (as most of them had to do with the Reich being unstable by design, Germany's lack of easily accessible natural resources and a comprehensive failure to understand logistics on the part of german military leadership); while the U-boat fleet was the most successful arm of the german navy, the allied air superiority over the Atlantic (which was achieved by 1943) combined with Admiral Horton's tactical changes effectively nullified it. To avoid this, german submarines would have to have several massively game-changing advances that were still in their infancy in the 1940s (such as air-independent propulsion mechanisms, improved sonar, guided torpedoes).
When the war broke out, Germany had 27 bluewater submarines ready for operations, mostly the Type VII(and a few more being refitted to not be at WWI standards).
And a similar number of less capable coastal submarines(Type II), with a pathetic total warload of 5 torpedoes and 3 tubes.
The Type VII then remained the big workhorse for the WHOLE war, without getting any major refits or improvements.
Now, lets say the Germans simply do not build the Bismarck(or start on the Tirpitz). That would have allowed close to doubling the number of bluewater subs at/around the start of the war.
And that´s just by not building the white elephant bragging rights ship class.
What if they had actually FOCUSED on subs early instead?
Let´s say they go the same route as the IJN did with their No.71 in 1938. A sub that was pretty much prototype testing sub for advanced hydrodynamics and other fun stuff.
A sub that pulled almost 22 knots submerged in 1938. 5 years before the German Type XXI came around with its 18 knots submerged that (rightly) scared the hell out of the allies.
Germany could if they really wanted have managed that by 1937, and then by 1939 have a Type XXI "light" in production.
While dropping the original VII in favour of something improved at LEAST by 1938.
And then not build any warships larger than cruisers.
So, by war´s start, instead of less than 30 mostly quite dated submarines, Germany could have around 25 dated ones, 50+ roughly equal to mid war Type IXs, and 5-15 advanced subs.
Does this change the outcome of the war? Most probably not. But the risk is HIGH that UK would be forced to surrender in the first 2 years due to being cut off from its seatrade.
UK was probably the best with ASW in 1939, yet it was not even capable of handling what the Germans did come with historically, add another several dozen considerably better subs to the Germans and the British are going to lose the convoy war.
The E wrote:And even if that had been achieved somehow, it would have only spurred on the development of cargo airplanes. Something like the Spruce Goose would have appeared much sooner than it did in our reality.
Eh, sorry for laughing at you, but that would be completely irrelevant. Cargo airplanes even
today can still only carry a tiny fraction of what ships can manage.
You simply cannot replace cargo ships with aircraft, end of story.
Even a tiny merchant ship carries hundreds of tons of cargo, while the more common cargo planes at the time carried <3 and around 7 tons of cargo. And that´s before even starting to look at space and loading restrictions that adds up on aircraft.
And the "Spruce Goose" was a pisspoor idea from start to the end. Even unloaded with a fraction of its max fuelload and aided by ground effect, it was not easily taking off.
And there´s good reason NOONE builds flying boats as cargo haulers, they add far too much surface area to the plane, which means it has FAR more drag than a plane of equal cargo and abilities that flies to and from land runways.
It was supposed to carry ~75t. That´s 100% wishful thinking.
And even if you managed to get a cargohauler that was capable of 10t across the Atlantic?
Each trip would cost several times more than even a single merchant ship doing the same trip, and the ship carries maybe 100, maybe 300 times more cargo. Maybe 600 times more, AND it does so while capable of loading things that an aircraft simply cannot load.
Are you seeing the problem? Why NOONE uses aircraft for heavy mass cargohauling? Because it´s bloody damned expensive!
Even if UK and USA both used ALL heavy bombers they had in Europe during WWII, for nothing but carrying cargo across the Atlantic, that literally be just a drop in the ocean compared to how much ships carried.
The E wrote:the allied air superiority over the Atlantic (which was achieved by 1943)
3-4 YEARS after the war started yes. That doesn´t matter much if Germany STARTS the war with triple the number of higher quality subs.
And depending on who you ask, the estimate on how many submarines Germany COULD have had in late 1939, IF they had focused on subs instead of wasted so much on bad surface ship ideas, IIRC the higher estimates goes beyond 300. TEN TIMES the historical number.
Personally i think that disregards how much manufacturing effort is involved, so a more realistic is 100-150, that´s still more than enough to wreak unholy havoc on British sealanes.
The E wrote:To avoid this, german submarines would have to have several massively game-changing advances that were still in their infancy in the 1940s (such as air-independent propulsion mechanisms, improved sonar, guided torpedoes).
Focusing on subs WOULD mean to also focus on their development early. The Type II wasn´t really a good vessel for WWII, and Type VII, while far more practically evolved, it was still nowhere near "cutting edge" in any way, even when it first launched.
Germany could probably have gone straight for the Type IX with some effort, and like i said above, they could started advanced research 3-6 years earlier than they did and have something fairly close to the historical XXI by 1939. Most of the design challenges was essentially pure engineering and testing, very little was truly radical or brand new inventions.