Undercover Fat Kid wrote:I can't help but feel that, along the vein of not giving the allies all their own way, if you've got anyone you love in Earl Hanth's army, you might want to send them a letter saying goodbye
Given the apparent supply situation and the Earl's lack of supernatural intelligence gathering, it really sounds like something wicked this way comes.
There'll be any number of ways that RFC could make the disaster less than complete, or mitigate the fallout, but I'm convinced that that army's days are numbered.
OK, I'll delurk with my own clueless take.
Were I faced with Green Valley's dilemma, the first thing I might consider is logistics: specifically, how they feed/supply the large force. We know the key route is the Holy Langhorne Canal, and that Rainbow Waters is concerned with the effects of losing it. It is therefore reasonable to conjecture that destroying that Canal would either force Rainbow Waters to retreat in mid-winter (major loss of life, even without serious pressure from EoC, plus probably Clytahn won't stand for it) or force RW to attack in mid-winter (same result).
Now, the HLC is looong, so even if RW wants to defend it there are going to be vulnerable spots. The question is, how to get there? From either the south (Gulf of Tanshar) or the southeast (Daivyn River) is a long distance to travel. If you go via Selyk you're liable to be detected. However, the join between RW's and Maigwair's troops is liable to be permeable, given the weather, so a commando force could indeed get through and wreak havoc. Of course, the odds of succeeding without seijin help are pretty low ...
And that brings us to the possibility of an all-seijin raid. The dilemma there is ethical: is it really right to starve all those people, especially the support serfs? The answer, I think, is that more people would die otherwise, and in particular more of the Good Guys.
p.s. again, ideally, I'd start the destruction as far south as possible, moving north. That way, RW doesn't find out about the supply route loss until later, especially since folks further up the line will take a while to figure out why they aren't seeing more supplies coming north.