And following along with out of order snippets . . . . .

DMcCunney wrote:

Randomiser wrote:Dennis, I'm sure what you say is quite true, but I don't think very much of it is relevant to RFC.

Back in 2005 Baen were claiming he had had 9 NYT top ten books and over 5 million books in print. It has only gone way upwards in the past 10 years.

He has 2 major series, one middling one and 2 or 3 collaborative ones currently on the go. On average at least 2 new books seem to come out per year. He is translated into several languages and has an international following. While the royalties for the English versions of the early books will be restricted by the Baen CD giveaway, they are still on sale and even coming out in 25th Anniversary special editions, which Baen is presumably doing because they sell.

He seems a pretty savvy kind of guy and has been around the industry a very long time - I think we can assume his contracts give him a more than reasonable share of all that.

I know nothing substantive about his financial situation, but it sure doesn't seem like he should be struggling to keep his head above water.

Oh, I agree. I don't think David has any problems keeping his head above water. He just likes to write, and seems to like having more than one project in progress at a time. He works as hard as he does because he wants to.

But David is atypical. The vast majority of published writers will not do that well. The catch phrase among writers is "Don't give up your day job!"

I interact elsewhere with the self-published/indie-published crowd, and there's a truly astonishing amount of wishful thinking.

Back before The Internet Ate the World and eBooks were even possible, I saw stats from the American Bookseller's Association indicating that there were over 50,000 new titles published per year in the US. That was close to a thousand new books a week. Who would buy and read them all? Most did not find an audience and get bought and read. They died in the stands and got returned for credit. Publishers all hoped enough books would sell to cover the losses on the ones that didn't and make them enough money to stay in business.

Now with the Internet, eBooks, and self-publishing/indie publishing, it's more like a thousand new books day. The same question applies, with the same answer, but the bar has been hugely raised.

I tell folks "Write because you must, can't imagine not writing, and will do it whether or not anyone else ever reads it. Self publish because you can. Don't expect to make money, because without a benevolent $DEITY to work a miracle for you, you won't!"

I'm delighted by David's success, and the fact he can do it full time and turn out more books I can read. But he's an exception that proves the rule. Most writers will not be so lucky.
_______
Dennis

I'm not sure it's quite that bad for a newbie, but it is a tough game to break into in a self-sustaining sort of way.

I haven't looked at the actual numbers in a long time, but many years ago the rule of thumb was that 10% of all writers earned 90% of all royalties, and the other 90% of writers split the remaining 10%. That may have shifted with the rise of self-published and independently-published authors, but I suspect it's still broadly true.

I think established writers have three responsibilities when talking to want-to-be writers.

(1) We have to be upfront with them that this is a hard profession when it comes to making a "living wage" solely at your keyboard.

(2) We owe it to them to point out that people can make a living at it, and that our careers serve as proof of that proposition.

(3) We have to point out that John Paul Jones was right: "It seems a law inflexible unto itself that he who will not risk cannot win."

An awful lot of us go through life with the thought that "I could be a successful writer if I ]only had time, only had the opportunity, only thought of the right story, or whatever]." But many of us are afraid to actually try to write because we fear failure/rejection. As long as we haven't submitted to a publishing house and been rejected, we can still know that we could be a writer if. People, I could have been published ten years earlier --- easily --- if I'd been willing to risk the potential disillusionment of rejection letters, but I found all sorts of other things I had to be doing instead. All of them were legitimate; today, I would have let none of them get in the way of actually spending the time to get the books out. I've been doing this for 30 years now (sold the first novel in 1989) and I'd like to go on doing it for another 20 or so, which would be a very respectable career (by the standards of anyone except Jack Williamson ), but I would sooooo love to have those 10 years back, as well.

As I point out to people who have the dreasm, when you're 20, there's lots of time for "I could be a writer a writer if," but if you're never willing to risk, one day you're 75 and it's "I could have been a writer if only." If this is what you really, really want to do, take the plunge and try it now, because if you don't . . . well . . . .

Oh, and Isaac's wife was lucky she lived in a pre-computer age! When Sharon and I go "on vacation," I take along not one but two laptops!

One thing I do have in common with the Doctor, though. He once said his greatest fear was that the publishers would figure out that he'd write whether they paid him or not.

I think that's true of almost every successful writer!

Hmmmm... Snipped my own post...

WeberFan wrote:- On further reflection, the Inner Circle comes up with what may be a better plan, which is then implemented (Merlin and Nimue probably play some key role, lots of mayhem ensues, the physical building in which the prisoners are being kept remains standing).
- The Inquisition discovers that all their personnel at the facility have been torn apart - beheaded, body parts and gore all over the place - basically hellfire, brimstone, and a whole bunch of "Old Testament" stuff. The term "Troy-Bilt chipper-shredder" comes to mind here.

...Why do I have it in my head that there are messages of retribution scrawled on the walls in inquisitor blood... "Repent now... God's own Seijin are coming for YOU!"

And now that I've read RFC's latest "out of order" snippet, I am convinced of this outcome at the Inquisition prison / torture chamber.

I will, however, change my thoughts as to the messages of retribution scrawled on the walls in Inquisitor blood...

"See - here and now - the consequences of serving the Angel of Darkness, Zhaspyr Clyntahn and know that Light will ALWAYS triumph over darkness."

SNIP

DMcCunney wrote:
Back before The Internet Ate the World and eBooks were even possible, I saw stats from the American Bookseller's Association indicating that there were over 50,000 new titles published per year in the US. That was close to a thousand new books a week. Who would buy and read them all? Most did not find an audience and get bought and read.

I think many of these 50,000 were my overpriced college textbooks, and - Dennis - there's no way I would have bought them or read them if I wasn't forced to... They were terrible!

WeberFan wrote:SNIP

DMcCunney wrote:Back before The Internet Ate the World and eBooks were even possible, I saw stats from the American Bookseller's Association indicating that there were over 50,000 new titles published per year in the US. That was close to a thousand new books a week. Who would buy and read them all? Most did not find an audience and get bought and read.

I think many of these 50,000 were my overpriced college textbooks, and - Dennis - there's no way I would have bought them or read them if I wasn't forced to... They were terrible!

Not as many as you might think. Textbooks are a special case.

When publishers publish books, their sales force goes out to sell them. Publishing has historically been "B2B". The publisher's sales force was trying to convince retailers and wholesalers to stock the titles, so readers could find and buy them.

Textbook publishers want schools to make their textbooks the standard textbooks used by the schools, and the student will have to buy the books to take the courses. (I knew of one professor many years ago who made a book he wrote about an entirely different topic a requirement for students taking his class.)

But the wast majority of stuff published is general fiction and non-fiction, and most of it tanks. It simply never finds an audience.
_______
Dennis

runsforcelery wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:I tell folks "Write because you must, can't imagine not writing, and will do it whether or not anyone else ever reads it. Self publish because you can. Don't expect to make money, because without a benevolent $DEITY to work a miracle for you, you won't!"

I'm delighted by David's success, and the fact he can do it full time and turn out more books I can read. But he's an exception that proves the rule. Most writers will not be so lucky.

I'm not sure it's quite that bad for a newbie, but it is a tough game to break into in a self-sustaining sort of way.

I'd like to think it's not quite that bad, but I wouldn't bet anything on it. I've been following publishing for decades, and everything I've seen says "Tough and getting tougher."

I haven't looked at the actual numbers in a long time, but many years ago the rule of thumb was that 10% of all writers earned 90% of all royalties, and the other 90% of writers split the remaining 10%. That may have shifted with the rise of self-published and independently-published authors, but I suspect it's still broadly true.

It is. As I mentioned earlier, most books don't earn out and generate royalties. The advance is all the author sees.

But the success of folks like yourself that are doing very well thank you allows publishers to take chances on newer writers. Your publishers are among those that do.

I think established writers have three responsibilities when talking to want-to-be writers.

(1) We have to be upfront with them that this is a hard profession when it comes to making a "living wage" solely at your keyboard.

(2) We owe it to them to point out that people can make a living at it, and that our careers serve as proof of that proposition.

(3) We have to point out that John Paul Jones was right: "It seems a law inflexible unto itself that he who will not risk cannot win."

An awful lot of us go through life with the thought that "I could be a successful writer if I ]only had time, only had the opportunity, only thought of the right story, or whatever]." But many of us are afraid to actually try to write because we fear failure/rejection. As long as we haven't submitted to a publishing house and been rejected, we can still know that we could be a writer if. People, I could have been published ten years earlier --- easily --- if I'd been willing to risk the potential disillusionment of rejection letters, but I found all sorts of other things I had to be doing instead. All of them were legitimate; today, I would have let none of them get in the way of actually spending the time to get the books out. I've been doing this for 30 years now (sold the first novel in 1989) and I'd like to go on doing it for another 20 or so, which would be a very respectable career (by the standards of anyone except Jack Williamson ), but I would sooooo love to have those 10 years back, as well.

Jack Williamson was a wonder and a marvel. He started writing in the pulp days and continued. He picked up a Phd in English and taught at the university level. He formally retired from his teaching position, but still team taught a class on writing with a younger professor. He kept saying "This book will be my last book", but there always seemed to be another one after he said that. I met him, back when, and was honored to do so.

The other author along that line for me was Williamson's long-time friend and collaborator Fred Pohl. I went to a con years back where he was a Special Guest because he was getting increasingly frail, and I wanted to shake his hand and thank him personally for his services to the SF field while I still could. He agreed the field would be a different lace if he hadn't been in it, but declined to speculate on whather it would have been better or worse.

He finally stopped writing books, but had a wonderful blog called "The Way the Future Was" where he talked about his long career and told wonderful stories. I believe he suffered the heart attack that killed him at the keyboard.

As I point out to people who have the dreasm, when you're 20, there's lots of time for "I could be a writer a writer if," but if you're never willing to risk, one day you're 75 and it's "I could have been a writer if only." If this is what you really, really want to do, take the plunge and try it now, because if you don't . . . well . . . .

I agree. I think of Heinlein's five rules for writers:

You must write.

You must finish what you write!

Having finished it, you must submit it to people who might pay you for the right to publish it.

You must keep submitting till it either sells or has been bounced by every possible market.

If it does get interest, you must not make changes in what you submitted unless the editor commits to buy it if you do.

Most aspiring writers seem to stumble on steps one or two.

My concern is simply getting folks I talk to to be realistic about the challenges and what they can expect. Most will be lucky to make minimum wage per hour for the hours they put in writing and publishing their work. Their chances of hitting the big time and making their living at it, via traditional publishing or indie/self publishing are extremely slim. That's the last thing they want to hear, and all I can say is "You'll find out..."

Oh, and Isaac's wife was lucky she lived in a pre-computer age! When Sharon and I go "on vacation," I take along not one but two laptops!

When the SO and I travel, we have two laptops, two tablets, two cell phones, a PDA, and possibly a netbook. We have a separate bag strictly for power strips, adapters, power and sync cables, media and the like. We have luggage, and our devices have luggage.

One thing I do have in common with the Doctor, though. He once said his greatest fear was that the publishers would figure out that he'd write whether they paid him or not.

I think that's true of almost every successful writer!

It's true of all the ones I know.
_______
Dennis

DMcCunney wrote:Back before The Internet Ate the World and eBooks were even possible, I saw stats from the American Bookseller's Association indicating that there were over 50,000 new titles published per year in the US. That was close to a thousand new books a week. Who would buy and read them all? Most did not find an audience and get bought and read. They died in the stands and got returned for credit. Publishers all hoped enough books would sell to cover the losses on the ones that didn't and make them enough money to stay in business.

Now with the Internet, eBooks, and self-publishing/indie publishing, it's more like a thousand new books day. The same question applies, with the same answer, but the bar has been hugely raised.

Mmmm... that sounds like a lot of books, and, of course, it *is*. But for every writer and book, there are many, many orders of magnitude potential readers. Also, not every reader has to read every book. We all have our "niches". Some folks like historical fiction. Some science fiction. Some westerns. Some romances. Some horror. Some thrillers. Some political drama. Etc.

Personally, I like action-adventure, science fiction, a limited selection of fantasy, mystery, horror, and thrillers. I don't read westerns, romance, comedy.

Yet many romance, mystery, horror, and thriller authors *thrive*; because *other* readers read them.

While there are probably *some* books that don't even break even, I suspect that most actually do, or at least are within the + or - 5% of doing so. And some, of course, do very well - either because they are from a very well known author; or else they have an intriguing story synopsis on the cover flap or rear that pulls folks browsing the "New Arrivals" section in, no matter what their "normal" categorical preferences might be.

For that matter, there have been many books I've read because they fall into my personal favorite categories that I found mediocre at best, yet, upon looking at the publishing history, have had multiple printings/reprintings that I'd have never expected. That shows right there that for just about any book there's going to be at least *some* reasonable audience.

OrlandoNative wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:Now with the Internet, eBooks, and self-publishing/indie publishing, it's more like a thousand new books day. The same question applies, with the same answer, but the bar has been hugely raised.

Mmmm... that sounds like a lot of books, and, of course, it *is*. But for every writer and book, there are many, many orders of magnitude potential readers. Also, not every reader has to read every book. We all have our "niches". Some folks like historical fiction. Some science fiction. Some westerns. Some romances. Some horror. Some thrillers. Some political drama. Etc.

The problem is that the supply has increased by an order of magnitude, but the demand has not.
The number of readers has stayed largely the same.

An issue for publishers has always been "too many books chasing too few readers". Now it's "Way too many books chasing too few readers."

The Internet is now the largest slush pile in history. Most trade publishers no longer accept unagented submissions. Reading slush was always an editors least favorite chore, and most publishers no longer will. A submission from a recognized agent doesn't mean it will be something the house can publish, but it at least won't be "Gouge out eyes with spoon after reading."

Now, with self-publishing, the reader gets to wade through that stuff looking for something worthy, and there's an enormous amount to wade through.

Back in the late 60's, SF writer Norman Spinrad opined that there should be enough SF magazines to allow everyone to get published. My question was "That's very nice Norman, but who will read it?" I still ask that question.

Personally, I like action-adventure, science fiction, a limited selection of fantasy, mystery, horror, and thrillers. I don't read westerns, romance, comedy.

I'm similar, save that I pass on horror, but likely read more mysteries.

Yet many romance, mystery, horror, and thriller authors *thrive*; because *other* readers read them.

Sure. Genres exist because there is a market for them.

Entire genres can go away. There use to be a genre called "Gothic Romance", but it no longer exists. Westerns are down enormously from their peak but seem to be making some comeback. Horror went through a boom and bust, and now seems to be at a sustainable level. The success of Stephen King had every publisher striving to build a line to publish stuff like that, but the market wasn't big enough to support all of them.

While there are probably *some* books that don't even break even, I suspect that most actually do, or at least are within the + or - 5% of doing so.

Publishers wish that was the case. Most books do not earn out. Many books just don't sell at all. It's a crap shoot, and publishers are all betting enough will sell to cover the losses on the ones that don't and keep them in business. Sometimes they lose the bet.

There used to be a publisher called Lyle Stuart. They published about a dozen books a year, and specialized in things like "unauthorized biographies" and exposes. The printed lots and promoted heavily. They were betting enough would become best sellers to cover the losses on the ones that failed. They finally hit a patch where they didn't have an bestsellers, and had to fold.

And an assortment of smaller and specialty publishers went under when their distributor went belly up. Perseus Book Group picked up some of them - mostly publishers of non-fiction - but fiction publishers like Weybright and Talley went under.

And some, of course, do very well - either because they are from a very well known author; or else they have an intriguing story synopsis on the cover flap or rear that pulls folks browsing the "New Arrivals" section in, no matter what their "normal" categorical preferences might be.

Some always do, but who the someones are is a matter of luck.

For that matter, there have been many books I've read because they fall into my personal favorite categories that I found mediocre at best, yet, upon looking at the publishing history, have had multiple printings/reprintings that I'd have never expected.

That's undergone changes. At one time, SF titles tended to stay in print. Then a tax court decision in an unrelated industry changed the way publishers valued inventory, and a lot of stuff went out of print fast. (Look up the Thor Power Tools Decision for details.)

That shows right there that for just about any book there's going to be at least *some* reasonable audience.

The trick is reaching it. If you are a self-published/indie-published author, or even a traditionally published author who has not achieved best seller status, marketing is on you, and time not spent writing is probably spent trying to reach the potential audience for your work to let them know you and it exist.

Most books never do find an audience.
_______
Dennis

I don't know how typical I am, but I think books are important. By that, I mean something you can pick up and hold. I find it difficult to browse books on the internet. OK, you can keep up with whatever is published by an author you know, but I find it rare to come across a new author whose output – or even some of whose output – I really enjoy. If I find out about a book I want , I'll buy electronic copy if I can (storage problems for hard copy! ), but I'll buy hard copy if I have to.

It's much easier browsing hard copy. If I'm on my own, I will always have a look at an interesting bookshop if I have time, or a bookshop which has some books selling cheaply outside. I spend 3 days every year going through the second-hand bookshops in Hay-on-Wye. I infinitely prefer being able to pick up a book, have a quick glance through it, and decide whether or not to buy. It's rare to be able to do that on the net; Baen is the only publisher I've found who gives you a decent chance to make an informed decision about buying. With other publishers you might get the first chapter if you're lucky, but more often, you have to make do with the blurb. At least, Amazon gives you access to readers' reviews!
.

Peter2 wrote:I don't know how typical I am, but I think books are important. By that, I mean something you can pick up and hold. I find it difficult to browse books on the internet. OK, you can keep up with whatever is published by an author you know, but I find it rare to come across a new author whose output – or even some of whose output – I really enjoy. If I find out about a book I want , I'll buy electronic copy if I can (storage problems for hard copy! ), but I'll buy hard copy if I have to.

I know a fair number of folks who feel like that.

It's much easier browsing hard copy. If I'm on my own, I will always have a look at an interesting bookshop if I have time, or a bookshop which has some books selling cheaply outside.

I'm in walking distance of a Barnes and Noble superstore, and drop by occasionally. A hop, skip and jump from them is an NYC institution called The Strand, which advertise 18 miles of books and is not joking. They specialize in recycled review copies, publisher's close outs and the like, and are a good place to find used books.

I spend 3 days every year going through the second-hand bookshops in Hay-on-Wye. I infinitely prefer being able to pick up a book, have a quick glance through it, and decide whether or not to buy. It's rare to be able to do that on the net; Baen is the only publisher I've found who gives you a decent chance to make an informed decision about buying.

Baen has another advantage. They are a specialty publisher doing mid-level action/adventure SF/fantasy. I think of them as the spiritual descendent of the original DAW Books.

When he founded DAW, Don Wollheim was taking a leaf from romance publisher Harlequin, whose goal was that it you liked one Harlequin Romance, you'd like another, and theye had a common cover design format to make it easy to find them. DAW was working the same territory, and there were people collecting all the DAW releases. After Don's death, his daughter Betsy took over as Publisher and changed the direction. They are now known for fantasy "bricks".

Baen knows what it's publishing and who its market is, and keeps in touch with it. They aren't likely to have best sellers (though David Weber and Lois Bujold have reached that status), but they also aren't likely to have books that totally tank and generate large losses.

My main SF publisher go-tos are Baen and Tor. Baen because they are good at what they specialize in. Tor has a more literay bent and ranges farther afield, but they have good taste. I'll by a book that is a first book from a new author from Tor because Tor published it. I may not think it succeeded in what it was trying to do, but it will have been worth trying.

With other publishers you might get the first chapter if you're lucky, but more often, you have to make do with the blurb. At least, Amazon gives you access to readers' reviews!.

Discovery is always an issue. My main selector is work by authors I like, subject matter in non-fiction, and recommendations from people I know whose taste I trust. (And a bad review can be a case of "He hated it, which means I'll love it!" )

My To Be Read stack is in round thousands, so I don't lack for choices. I tell people "If I could learn to read each book with a different eye and be reading two at once, I might at least slow the rate of growth of the TBR stack." I also say "The nice thing about eBooks is that you don't call the EMTs if my TBR stack topples over on me."

I'm a neutral in the format wars. For me, eBooks are an alternative format, and not a replacement for paper books. I have some paper volumes that simply wouldn't work as eBooks. They're volumes in architecture, art, design, photography, and typography. They simply need a much larger space to properly display the content than any practical eBook viewing device will have. Some books I have only in paper, some in electronic format, and some in both. (I have David's books in both hardcover and electronic format.)

The advantage to eBooks is the ability to carry a library with me. My standard viewing device is an Android tablet whose principal use case is to be an eBook viewer, and a subset of my eBook library is on a 32GB microSD card in the tablet.

I'm usually reading more than one book at a time, and it's easy to do so. An additional feature is that eBooks are searchable, and a fair bit of what I have is reference material of one sort or another.

I buy less paper volumes these days because storage is a constraint. I am already double and triple rowed on the shelves, and have books in boxes in an offsite storage location. Since I normally buy hardcovers, storage is an even bigger issue, so it has to be important to me to merit it.

I do see eBooks cannibalizing and replacing the standard Mass Market Paperback. They serve essentially the same function.
_______
Dennis

I first discovered RFC's books one day at my local library when I found "The Shiva Option" among one or two of his other books. Since SF and Fantasy are my two favorite genres, I grabbed it off the shelf, and honestly, to this day I think it's one of his best books. I petitioned my library to buy the entire series, and found its prequel "In Death Ground" to be terrifying, as the Bug war kicked off and the humans and 'cats took it in the teeth. (And became lunch.)

The library only had two of the Honor Harrington series, and although I begged them to buy the rest, they shot me down. They did buy "War of Honor," which to my utter shock came with a CD in the back that had every previous book in the Honorverse on it, plus several other series of RFC's and some of his solo novels. I don't think I came up for air for at least two or three months! That CD got me completely hooked on the Honorverse, and filled in all the blanks in the one or two books of his other series that my library somehow hadn't sold off.

My local library has a bad habit of selling donated books even if they don't have a copy of the donated book on the shelves to check out. This is really annoying if they're about to sell a book that would fill a gap in an ongoing series which they've only partially completed. I've found it helpful to plop such books on the front desk at checkout and inform them that they can fill a gap in a series if they'll put it on the shelf, and they're good about doing that. I guess they just don't want to sort through the donated books to see what they have and what they don't...

At the point that RFC and Baen decided to make his earliest books - including entire series from earlier in his career available to late-coming readers for free, they rolled the dice on losing the sales those books might still have generated. However, they gained thousands and thousands of new fans to several of his ongoing series - Bahzell, Honor, "The Stars at War," Dahak, the 1632 series with Eric Flint, and some fabulous solo novels like "The Excalibur Alternative."

One day I looked on the library shelf, not expecting that RFC would have new novel for a while, (or that they'd buy it without me begging them if he did!) and there sat "Off Armageddon Reef!" I took it home and read it twice, and checked it out at least twice more before finally buying the eBook. I've picked up every novel in the series the day it came out ever since, although I prefer eBooks because they don't weight anything and I can adjust the text size on my computer screen, plus I can scan them for the ridiculous amount of research I do in writing far too many of my posts!

RFC didn't need to give away all those eBooks, but in my case, doing so led to me convince my library to buy a lot of his books, and when they wouldn't, I filled in the blanks myself. (They now consider him a first-line author and have his books available within a week of the publish date.) Having those books on the library shelves continues to expose more and more readers to his books, and yeah, those inaccurate but cool looking covers do hook a lot of readers. So by giving away his older books, some which were out of print, he gained future sales and a bunch of new readers.

Eric Flint, who as we all know has co-written several books with RFC including the Torch books in the Honorverse (and who we owe Honor's life to by speeding up the timeline!) puts his books in the Baen Free library three months after they're issued in mass paperback, and they're all still in print. So clearly he, RFC, and Baen know what they're doing. My local library only had 1632 and 1634:The Baltic War (co-written by RFC) so I was thrilled to find the earlier books in the series in the Baen free library.

Thank you RFC for giving the "Ok" to put that CD in your novels, since it gave me and so many others the chance to be introduced or catch up on every book in many of your series. I'm sure you've gained many more readers and have more sales by giving those eBooks away than you ever would had we been left to our own resources to find copies of your earlier books, and you gained a great deal of goodwill as well.