Another out of sequence snippet

Dennis, Re Rayno succeeding Clyntahn. Its hard to see a plot line that involves the Vicarate at large emerging at this stage in the story. There has just been too much hand-wavium about the Vicarate so far for them to become significant now. There are 260+ other vicars, how many of them can you name? Which of them are Clyntahn's allies and how many of them might support Rayno if he was gone? What part are they playing in the life of the church or the direction of the Jihad? That's right, we haven't a clue.
We know Clyntahn 'controls' the Vicarate, but we haven't seen anything about how he does it in detail, because it hasn't been relevant to the story. At this stage, the Vicarate at large is just stage dressing for the action we are following.

Dilandu wrote:Well, the most sensor-free solution would be to use heavy stealthed SNARC to threw a simple dumb bomb.

True, but duplicating the visual effects of a true OBS/Rakuri strike or the sonic boom(s) involved might be problematic (SNARCs are super/hypersonic but are also stealthy so they suppress sonic booms somehow.) Still, a SNARC + conventional bomb (smart or dumb, makes no real difference) is probably the best option for destroying the Inquisition headquarters.

Dilandu wrote:The orbital drop of some kinetic projectile may be more accurate, but we have reasons to assume that either Temple or Rakurai array are scanning for such things, and may have their own opinion.

The Temple may well react to a super/hypersonic bomb run as quickly as an OBS strike. Maybe even faster since the rebel faction didn't have an orbital bombardment system -- "if it came from orbit it must be ours."

The biggest argument against "one of Langhorne’s own Rakurai" or any strike that could be mistaken for "divine intervention" is Merlin's aversion to "impersonating an angel" or claiming divine support.

Weird Harold wrote:
True, but duplicating the visual effects of a true OBS/Rakuri strike or the sonic boom(s) involved might be problematic (SNARCs are super/hypersonic but are also stealthy so they suppress sonic booms somehow.) Still, a SNARC + conventional bomb (smart or dumb, makes no real difference) is probably the best option for destroying the Inquisition headquarters.

Well, let's put the magnesium flare on the tail of the bomb and launch the attack at night) Merlin could also use more effective chemicals than just black powder - something like plastic explosives, maybe mixed with some thermite and other pyrotechnical stuff to make it really look like the fire arrow from the sky. Imkagine how it would look: the bright white trail in the night sky, then fiery explosion and all-consuming fire, so hot, that even stones melt. Who would dare to deny that this was clearly the Rakurai stike, send by God himself? Even Clyntahn would probably have quite a lot of problems trying to persuade HIMSELF that this is not what it look like.

If Merlin finally decided to play God a bit, this must be done with style)

The Temple may well react to a super/hypersonic bomb run as quickly as an OBS strike. Maybe even faster since the rebel faction didn't have an orbital bombardment system -- "if it came from orbit it must be ours."

Well, but the bomb is just a bomb. No electronic of any kind. Zero emission. To detect it, the Temple would be forced to go active and start active search - and it was clearly stated that the Temple didn't do that. Or Merlion would detect such scanners long ago.

The good thing about toss bombing is that the launching aircraft mustn't go anywhere near the target. It could launch the bomb from significant distance (at least dozen of miles), basically playing the role of unguided ballistic projectile booster. So the SNARK may not even need to go over the horizon to do something like this.

The biggest argument against "one of Langhorne’s own Rakurai" or any strike that could be mistaken for "divine intervention" is Merlin's aversion to "impersonating an angel" or claiming divine support.

Well, it seems that Merlin finally understood that such things are inevitable. After all, the Archangels are coming back - and they would clearly saw the pattern in everything that happens. The Safeholdians might not notice that something fishy is going here (they are inside their own referense scale), but the Archangels would immediatedly realise, that barely Renaissanse civilization simply could not went to the triple-expansion steam engines, pneumatic tools and rifled steel artilley by themselves in just a few years. So they would understood immediatedly "someone is stirring the situation here!", and any covert activity on Merlin's side would generally be limited.

Dilandu wrote:Well, but the bomb is just a bomb. No electronic of any kind. Zero emission. To detect it, the Temple would be forced to go active and start active search - and it was clearly stated that the Temple didn't do that. Or Merlion would detect such scanners long ago.

The Temple would not need active sensors to detect "one of Langhorne’s own Rakurai" because nothing permissible under the proscriptions should create sonic booms or supersonic fireballs. It might not detect it soon enough to intercept it, but it ought to wake up and start watching things more closely.

A simple dumb bomb delivered from stealth at sub-sonic speeds wouldn't be "one of Langhorne’s own Rakurai" but it wouldn't risk waking the Temple or making false claims of divine support. (even by action rather than an explicit claim.)

Randomiser wrote:

McGuiness wrote:The reason I've suggested infiltrating a team of scout snipers into Zion is that RFC has set the stage for something like it. One of the cargo lorries in Nimue's cave has been modified so it has seats to carry several people rather than cargo. Why would RFC slip in that little tidbit if he didn't plan to use it eventually?

That's a stretch! Merlin has already used his air-bus, presumably, to transfer the family from the inquisition camp to the cave, which is what it was ostensibly for - ferrying groups of people to the cave if required.

The barrier to your scout-sniper scenario is the same as it always was - It requires bringing a platoon of grunts a long way into the circle while maintaining absolute security. Can't see it happening.

(The sisters are a somewhat different game of course because they have their own reasons for, and lifetimes of practice in, maintaining security.)

Also, there's the TF Assault craft, which is approximately the size of a 747 for toting soldiers around, and if you are going to show TF technology off, you might as well go big. Also, it carries more people.

Weird Harold wrote:
The Temple would not need active sensors to detect "one of Langhorne’s own Rakurai" because nothing permissible under the proscriptions should create sonic booms or supersonic fireballs. It might not detect it soon enough to intercept it, but it ought to wake up and start watching things more closely.

Well, the Rakurai array seems to be generally peaceful about those kind of things. Even when the array vaporised two unauthorised SNARC's there were no reaction. And one SNARC went actually active, i.e. clearly demonstrated its artifical origins.

Dilandu wrote:Well, the Rakurai array seems to be generally peaceful about those kind of things. Even when the array vaporised two unauthorised SNARC's there were no reaction. And one SNARC went actually active, i.e. clearly demonstrated its artifical origins.

With just passive sensors, the Temple would need line of sight at a minimum; the test of the OBS defenses with SNARCs should have been "beyond visual range" and out of line-of-sight from the temple. i.e. on the back side of the planet portion of it's orbit.

POTENTIAL SPOILER ALERT> Coming out of the shadows for this one. I don't think we will see scout snipers used because none of them are in the inner circle and getting them into Zion without an airlift would be too hard to do and explain. Also, I don't think we will see Nimue being talked out of an attack after the Mighty Masticator of Apium Graveolens has put so such emphasis on a great BIG boom in his second post. The issue of why she wants such a strike, I think, will stay hidden until we get the book in November. My guess would be either a successful assassination of Caleb, or closer to home. an attempt or killing of either of Iris or Hector since she is extremely close to those two.

As for the target of the BIG boom, I'm willing to bet a virtual beer that it will be the Inquisition's training seminary. By taking that out, you get a whole slew of Inquisitors in training taken out plus their instructors in applying the punishment. Combined with the edict on putting Inquisitors to death from Caleb and Sharleyan, and you have a great start in breaking the strangle hold of the church on future generations. I would guess that a fair number of priests and wannabe Inquisitors may not want to join after the strike. If the destruction of the seminary is combined with a poster/broadsheet campaign stating that it must have been God's will to destroy it and the evil in it, then Clyntahn and Ranyo will lose even more power over the Vicariate and the population.

David has already told us that Owl has manufactured "conventional" munitions up to the 2,000 pound class. Now, having read this post, and with the understanding that the Inquisition facility is not at the Temple (and therefore is not "immune"), I predict something more akin to the MOAB (mother of all bombs or GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast), or a FAE (Fuel-Air-Explosive - sometimes called "the poor man's nuclear weapon" or BLU-96/B 2000lb Fuel-Air Explosive) dropped or lofted from an assault shuttle in the middle of the night (unless a Recon Skimmer could carry it).

See the attached YouTubes...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u11f03nRrmI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmRASCHJe2Q

Oh how sweet it would be...