Logistics and the Coming Year

SYED wrote:The thing is it won't just be the dohlar army, the church will force them to accept aid from the harchong forces they have available.
Charis should aim at claiming the canal upto the coastal city. Forcing the church to send supplies in directly.

First those forces of the Mighty Host of God would have to get there to provide the aid. There are little details like Duke Eastshare and Baron Green Valley in the way, and Earl Rainbow Waters, the Mighty Host of God commander, has already expressed unhappiness to his nephew about the Southern Mighty Host of God and the relative strength assigned to it. He doesn't think 400,000 men is enough to really guarantee holding the southern front against what Eastshare and Green Valley have demonstrated they can do, let alone take the offense.

And even if elements of the Mighty Host can get there, I don't see Dohlar being thrilled at the idea of accepting their aid. They'll be even less enthusiastic than Sir Rainos Ahlverez was about having the Dohlaran army he commanded under the ultimate control of a Desnairian even before he found out the hard way precisely how stupid and incompetent Harless was.

I'm not sure Mother Church can force Dohlar to accept that aid, and attempting to might be another thing that makes Dohlar take its marbles and go home.
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Dennis

Hi Don,

You may well be right.

Thirsk may wait until the prisoners [mainly the officers] are handed over to him to transport to Zion, because the Navy of God doesn't have any handy ships available anymore, though that maybe why the inquisition has been waiting.

If that waiting period is extended, he could join with Ahlverez, while OWL watched for leaks etc.

OTOH, Thirsk might send them on their way, only to lose them in a terrific storm [now that it's fall] on the way.

By the time the inquisition finds out and investigates this "lost at sea" incident, the combined plans may be ready.

The King Haraahld's may not show up until November, including a 24 day transit from Tellesburg, and delaying things until winter might also prove helpful to Duchairn's plans, although waiting for the allied invasion of temple bay and steaming up the Zion tidal river next summer might be the best.

Interesting times, and thanks for the great post RFC!

L

n7axw wrote:

XofDallas wrote:Certainly bad morale played a part in things, and there were many sources of that bad morale. I refuse, however, to start parsing words and arguing whether the sources of a crushed morale constitute "direct" or "indirect" causes of Germany's surrender. Who wants to get sucked into that kind of quibbling?

My point was, the German surrender was not the result of their lines on the western front having been overrun, and the allies having taken Germany's capital, or something similar.

My ultimate point was, with respect to Dohlar, I don't believe its ultimate surrender/capitulation/whatever that renders it no longer a Church asset, will be the result of Rychter's lines being overrun in the east. Rather, I believe it will come as the result of internal strife, some of which will be caused by external pressures such as the presence of more ironclads in the Gulf, but more likely (in my opinion) resulting from Church actions that are no longer tolerable to key groups in Dohlar.

There's a saying in the military, "Don't give an order you know won't be obeyed." That's what I think ultimately will happen to the Church in Dohlar.

How'd this particular discussion point get into this thread anyway? It started with the assumption that Dohlar and its assets were no longer assets available to the Church, for whatever reason, and focused on the logistical consequences of such unavailability.

Oops... perhaps it was some of my own previous posts that got us off track. If so, you have my apologies.

My own guess is that the order that won't be obeyed will be to transfer the sailors on the Prodigal Lass to Zion.

I agree that Dohlar will more likely be forced out of the war from the sea rather than by Hanth's campaign on land. But it is important for Hanth to keep up the pressure.

Don

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Hi Dennis,

Quite right.

We don't know where the southern MH is [not on map], and we have no textev orders that it move towards Dohlar.

This another plea for more and better detailed maps, if anyone can do anything about that at this late date.

If the MH's second wave [~5-600K] is sent south from their training camps in the spring, we may see the ICN gunboats etc go up the Sabana to cut their supplies off, and possibly force the CoGA to destroy the south end of the Holy Langhorne Canal locks, which would force RW to retreat unless they can be repaired quickly.

Much as I'd like to see the ICA reinforcements land in Temple Bay this summer, I don't think its going to happen, though having Duchairn or Magwair or both challenge Clyntahn to show them how to trust God and lead his local inquisitors [all that's left]in battle against the heretics, which could be fun to watch them all get slaughtered.

Will there be ICA machine guns by then?

L

DMcCunney wrote:

SYED wrote:The thing is it won't just be the dohlar army, the church will force them to accept aid from the harchong forces they have available.
Charis should aim at claiming the canal upto the coastal city. Forcing the church to send supplies in directly.

First those forces of the Mighty Host of God would have to get there to provide the aid. There are little details like Duke Eastshare and Baron Green Valley in the way, and Earl Rainbow Waters, the Mighty Host of God commander, has already expressed unhappiness to his nephew about the Southern Mighty Host of God and the relative strength assigned to it. He doesn't think 400,000 men is enough to really guarantee holding the southern front against what Eastshare and Green Valley have demonstrated they can do, let alone take the offense.

And even if elements of the Mighty Host can get there, I don't see Dohlar being thrilled at the idea of accepting their aid. They'll be even less enthusiastic than Sir Rainos Ahlverez was about having the Dohlaran army he commanded under the ultimate control of a Desnairian even before he found out the hard way precisely how stupid and incompetent Harless was.

I'm not sure Mother Church can force Dohlar to accept that aid, and attempting to might be another thing that makes Dohlar take its marbles and go home.
_______
Dennis

SYED wrote:The thing is it won't just be the dohlar army, the church will force them to accept aid from the harchong forces they have available.
Charis should aim at claiming the canal upto the coastal city. Forcing the church to send supplies in directly.

If there are MH forces available to re-inforce the Dohalaran army, how would you get them to Dohlar?

We know that the MH have their troops moving along the Bedard and the Holy Langhorn Canals to get them to the front. I suppose some of those troops could be diverted along the Sabana River to the Gulf of Tanshar, but does the Church have enough ships available to transport significant numbers across the Gulf into Dohlar.

Moving troops overland would be almost impossible due to the distance required and supplies needed.

The only other way into Dohlar would be via the Fairmyn River, Charayn Canal and South Daivyn River. Unfortunately the allies are in control of at least part of the South Daivyn River.

I suppose the Church could supply Dohlar with a token MH force, but would they be enough to make a difference?

DMcCunney wrote:Germany had a fair number of Marxists, but Mark thought developed nation like Germany was where Communism would develop. The notion is might take root in still agrarian and feudal societies like Russia was not one that occurred to most Marxists.

The Marxists were hardly the only ones the existing ruling classes worried about. Socialists were seen as a greater threat, as were major industries not under the control of the existing nobility, with industrialists amassing fortunes that exceeded the nobles, and a middle class that increasingly expected a voice in how things were run. Religion was also in that mix, with Catholic versus Protestant one of the majot cleavages.
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Dennis

<Snipped for Brevity not because I disagree with or dislike anything not included>

Although I cannot tell you where I read it, I recall reading that Marx was terrified at the thought of marxism being implemented in agrarian societies such as Russia's.

As for fear of Marxists and Socialists, let us not forget Anarchists as well. I was just reading up on Anarchism and see that Marxism was originally included in that political spectrum although true Anarchists believed that Marxism would simply replace one set of rulers with another and it looks as though they were correct.

<edited 1 time to include brevity explanation>

DMcCunney wrote:

SYED wrote:The thing is it won't just be the dohlar army, the church will force them to accept aid from the harchong forces they have available.
Charis should aim at claiming the canal upto the coastal city. Forcing the church to send supplies in directly.

First those forces of the Mighty Host of God would have to get there to provide the aid. There are little details like Duke Eastshare and Baron Green Valley in the way, and Earl Rainbow Waters, the Mighty Host of God commander, has already expressed unhappiness to his nephew about the Southern Mighty Host of God and the relative strength assigned to it. He doesn't think 400,000 men is enough to really guarantee holding the southern front against what Eastshare and Green Valley have demonstrated they can do, let alone take the offense.

And even if elements of the Mighty Host can get there, I don't see Dohlar being thrilled at the idea of accepting their aid. They'll be even less enthusiastic than Sir Rainos Ahlverez was about having the Dohlaran army he commanded under the ultimate control of a Desnairian even before he found out the hard way precisely how stupid and incompetent Harless was.

I'm not sure Mother Church can force Dohlar to accept that aid, and attempting to might be another thing that makes Dohlar take its marbles and go home.
_______
Dennis

I wholeheartedly agree. One of my favorite fantasies is Rychter and Hanth coming together after a truce brokered in Gorath to face off the Harchonhgians.

Perhaps another reason to not be too hard on Dohlar.

Don

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lyonheart wrote:Hi Dennis,

Quite right.

We don't know where the southern MH is [not on map], and we have no textev orders that it move towards Dohlar.

Clyntahn is still focused on preserving his gains in northern Siddarmark and protecting his concentration camps. We're seeing how well that's working out. (And Earl Rainbow Waters is quietly grateful as camps farther out are liberated, reducing the demands that he Do Something to protect them.)

This another plea for more and better detailed maps, if anyone can do anything about that at this late date.

Hmmm. I wonder if Openstreetmaps can be adapted...

If the MH's second wave [~5-600K] is sent south from their training camps in the spring, we may see the ICN gunboats etc go up the Sabana to cut their supplies off, and possibly force the CoGA to destroy the south end of the Holy Langhorne Canal locks, which would force RW to retreat unless they can be repaired quickly.

Given Clyntahn's preoccupations, I think that's unlikely. He wants to finish crushing Siddarmark. Dohlar is a side-show for the EoC, and it's likely a sideshow for him as well. I don't think a threat to Dohlar would make him divert resources. His thinking is likely to be "I've got the Mighty Host of God, and I don't really need Dohlar." He'll want Dohlar to keep fighting to tie down some of the EoC's strength, but I don't think he'll divert the Might Host's second wave to help.

Much as I'd like to see the ICA reinforcements land in Temple Bay this summer, I don't think its going to happen, though having Duchairn or Magwair or both challenge Clyntahn to show them how to trust God and lead his local inquisitors [all that's left]in battle against the heretics, which could be fun to watch them all get slaughtered.

Duchairn and Magwair might well try to take out Clyntahn if they had the ability. But Inquisitors loyal to Clyntahn are firmly in control in Zion and the Temple, and Magwair doesn't have forces he can be confident will back him near enough to do anything.

(I do suspect Clyntanh might get an unpleasant surprise from the Temple Guard still in Zion at some point. Hauwerd Wylsynn had been their commander at one point, and Clyntahn's purge of Hauwerd as well as his brother Samuel along with the other members of the Circle won't sit well with them. They might just decide they've had quite enough of the Inquisition, and Clyntahn might discover his Inquisitors in Zion have suffered unfortunate mishaps... )

Will there be ICA machine guns by then?

At a con back in April, I asked David whether we'd see Gatling guns appearing in the ICA, since they are well within the capabilities of Charis to build. David said we wouldn't, because they'd serve no real need.

Machine guns were major causes of the horrendous casualties in WWI, as "over the top" attacks were made on fortified positions. That sort of nonsense is the last sort of thing Charis wants to do, and it the Mighty Host is foolish enough to try that sort of mass attack, well, that's what angle guns, mortars, and Katyushas are for, not to mention Shan Wei's Footstools and the like.. Troops with magazine fed Mahndrayns using aimed fire can do for MHoG troops that survive the artillery and mines.

So no, I don't expect to see machine guns.
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Dennis

n7axw wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:And even if elements of the Mighty Host can get there, I don't see Dohlar being thrilled at the idea of accepting their aid. They'll be even less enthusiastic than Sir Rainos Ahlverez was about having the Dohlaran army he commanded under the ultimate control of a Desnairian, even before he found out the hard way precisely how stupid and incompetent Harless was.

I'm not sure Mother Church can force Dohlar to accept that aid, and attempting to might be another thing that makes Dohlar take its marbles and go home.

I wholeheartedly agree. One of my favorite fantasies is Rychter and Hanth coming together after a truce brokered in Gorath to face off the Harchonhgians.

That would be a tickle.

I don't see it happening unless the situation in Dohlar, um, clarifies. If the various pressures building cause Dohlar to drop out the the Jihad and sign some form of non-aggression treaty with the EoC, I can see Clyntahn ordering the Mighty Host to reconquer the portions of Siddarmark Dohlar held as part of the Army of Justice in the wake of the Sword of Schueler, and while they're at it, chastise Dohlar for dropping out.

Hanth and Rychter might make common cause in a case like that.

Perhaps another reason to not be too hard on Dohlar.

As mentioned elsewhere, I don't think Charis really wants to invade Dohlar. They want King Rahnyld's head, and Dohlar out of the Jihad, but it shouldn't require an outright invasion and occupation to accomplish that. Earl Hanth needs to keep up the pressure and keep driving Rychter west, but if he can manage it, I think he'll be happy to stop after Rychter is driven back across the former Dohlar/Siddarmark birder.

And Cayleb and Sharleyan have their eye on the future. What happens after the Jihad is over?

I think what Charis would like to see is Dohlar under new management, and a trading partner and at some point friend. The less bad blood is stored up, the easier that will be.

Don

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Dennis

DMcCunney wrote:SNIPP

Machine guns were major causes of the horrendous casualties in WWI, as "over the top" attacks were made on fortified positions. That sort of nonsense is the last sort of thing Charis wants to do, and it the Mighty Host is foolish enough to try that sort of mass attack, well, that's what angle guns, mortars, and Katyushas are for, not to mention Shan Wei's Footstools and the like.. Troops with magazine fed Mahndrayns using aimed fire can do for MHoG troops that survive the artillery and mines.

So no, I don't expect to see machine guns.

The main cause of death/ injury was down to Artillery fire. 58% of deaths/injuries on the battlefield were caused by Artillery fire as opposed to 32% caused by bullets (Rifle or Machine Gun).

OMG when I posted about not quibbling about direct vs. indirect causes, for some reason I didn't realize I actually was responding to an RFC post.

Having now shown my posterior to all and sundry, I herewith apologize to all of you, and especially to RFC.

In terms of the situation, the possible consequences, and the economic and logistical implications, though, I do think the discussion has been a very stimulating one - and I look forward to more of the same over the coming few weeks, as more is revealed to us.