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Possible way to take out the OBS

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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by AirTech   » Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:42 am

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Dilandu wrote:Hm... this bring the old question: why destroy the whole continent? Not just it was overwhelmingly incomparable to the size of problem, but it was also pretty dangerous in ecological and climatic therms. Such ammount of organic matter burned, such seismic vibrations, so many soil swept into oceans... This may quite well turn Safehold in a much less hospitable planet.

So, what exactly the initial Rakurai array tried to hit? They have sweeping attacks exactly against Alexandria, basically hitting the enclave location against and against. Three separate waves of at least kiloton-size impactors against the total area of 2544689.52 km2 - and FIVE waves against just the Alexandria.

It looks like combination of barrage attack (against what? What could Dr. Pei have in comission, that must be pinned to the ground and npt allowed to launch?) & hardened target penetration. I.e. those-who-launched-attack supposed that there is something really deep buried under Alexandria, and tried to hit it... before what?


Kiloton range would not be worth firing against underground targets. Megaton range possibly but if you are capable of FTL travel then on the other end round 250 megaton would be the upper useful limit (above this and you pump whatever you hit into orbit, self defeating for an orbital system) and will almost certainly produce a volcano wherever they hit by penetrating the crust.
The Russians found this out with the Tsar Bomba (a 50 Megaton device) which displaced the air above it by 56km (30 miles). That said a kinetic energy weapon is by its nature a ground penetrator (air burst is very hard to do predictably) so deep craters go with the territory.
Blast damage from air coupling will kill anyone in the open who sees the impact and the ground wave will bring buildings down for hundreds of miles. A 100 Megaton device cannot be dropped from a bomber (other than as a suicide mission) but certainly can be and has been built. Gigaton nuclear yields are also definitely possible (and deliverable (a Saturn 1 would do it easily with a reentry vehicle the size and weight of Apollo spacecraft with a demonstrated yield of 5kT per kg being typical of modern American devices)) but not useful as the effective yield is no bigger than a 250 Mt device in an earth-like atmosphere. (The debris just moves faster and into a higher orbit).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by Randomiser   » Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:07 am

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The other really interesting question about the death toll is 'How is Merlin going to find out about it?' Presumably sometime in this book?
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by Joat42   » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:12 pm

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Randomiser wrote:The other really interesting question about the death toll is 'How is Merlin going to find out about it?' Presumably sometime in this book?

Perhaps from the key?

---
Jack of all trades and destructive tinkerer.


Anyone who have simple solutions for complex problems is a fool.
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by Randomiser   » Wed Aug 17, 2016 7:26 pm

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Joat42 wrote:
Randomiser wrote:The other really interesting question about the death toll is 'How is Merlin going to find out about it?' Presumably sometime in this book?

Perhaps from the key?


Or from the OBS or beneath the Temple data banks once he takes them over?!? :twisted:
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by Dilandu   » Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:02 am

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Randomiser wrote:Or from the OBS or beneath the Temple data banks once he takes them over?!? :twisted:


Well, unless the Rakurai platform are controlled with really sophisticated AI - and I really could not understood, why they might need sophisticated AI for the functions, which even the vacuum tube computer could preform - I really doubt that the OBS systems could provide any useful data about Alexandria. Remember, it wasn't even the same system. The current Rakurai array was constructed AFTER the Alexandria was destroyed, and the initial array was basically single-shot weapon, that burned itself during launches.
------------------------------

Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

(Red Army lyrics from 1945)
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by doug941   » Thu Aug 18, 2016 4:58 am

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AirTech wrote:
Dilandu wrote:Hm... this bring the old question: why destroy the whole continent? Not just it was overwhelmingly incomparable to the size of problem, but it was also pretty dangerous in ecological and climatic therms. Such ammount of organic matter burned, such seismic vibrations, so many soil swept into oceans... This may quite well turn Safehold in a much less hospitable planet.

So, what exactly the initial Rakurai array tried to hit? They have sweeping attacks exactly against Alexandria, basically hitting the enclave location against and against. Three separate waves of at least kiloton-size impactors against the total area of 2544689.52 km2 - and FIVE waves against just the Alexandria.

It looks like combination of barrage attack (against what? What could Dr. Pei have in comission, that must be pinned to the ground and npt allowed to launch?) & hardened target penetration. I.e. those-who-launched-attack supposed that there is something really deep buried under Alexandria, and tried to hit it... before what?


Kiloton range would not be worth firing against underground targets. Megaton range possibly but if you are capable of FTL travel then on the other end round 250 megaton would be the upper useful limit (above this and you pump whatever you hit into orbit, self defeating for an orbital system) and will almost certainly produce a volcano wherever they hit by penetrating the crust.
The Russians found this out with the Tsar Bomba (a 50 Megaton device) which displaced the air above it by 56km (30 miles). That said a kinetic energy weapon is by its nature a ground penetrator (air burst is very hard to do predictably) so deep craters go with the territory.
Blast damage from air coupling will kill anyone in the open who sees the impact and the ground wave will bring buildings down for hundreds of miles. A 100 Megaton device cannot be dropped from a bomber (other than as a suicide mission) but certainly can be and has been built. Gigaton nuclear yields are also definitely possible (and deliverable (a Saturn 1 would do it easily with a reentry vehicle the size and weight of Apollo spacecraft with a demonstrated yield of 5kT per kg being typical of modern American devices)) but not useful as the effective yield is no bigger than a 250 Mt device in an earth-like atmosphere. (The debris just moves faster and into a higher orbit).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba


Actually a 100 megaton or bigger weapon could be bomber delivered, the question being is it feasible to try. The Laydown delivery drops a shock resistant bomb with a minimal parachute on the ground which triggers a time delay fuse.
A 100 megaton Tsar Bomba would not be much stronger in its physical effect than a 50 megaton Tsar Bomba. The distance where the shock waves equal a 1.5 psi (able to break glass) overpressure are: 36km vs 45.4km. The distances where the thermal energy cause no injuries are: 111km vs 138km. And while my nuke simulator program doesn't go above 100Mt, a 200Mt weapon most likely would not cause injuries at or past 160-170km.
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by Dilandu   » Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:30 am

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doug941 wrote:A 100 megaton Tsar Bomba would not be much stronger in its physical effect than a 50 megaton Tsar Bomba. The distance where the shock waves equal a 1.5 psi (able to break glass) overpressure are: 36km vs 45.4km. The distances where the thermal energy cause no injuries are: 111km vs 138km. And while my nuke simulator program doesn't go above 100Mt, a 200Mt weapon most likely would not cause injuries at or past 160-170km.


As far as I recall, the most powerfull warhead even suggested was the 10-gigaton Teller's "SUNDAIL" design.

Such weapon (at least as Teller supposed) could wreak significant devastation over the area, comparable to British Isles in single blast. Still, against hardened targets it wasn't very effective - dropping such device over the ICBM silos fields would probably result in the destruction of only a few missiles at once.

As far as I recall, trhere was design for nuclear-pulse ICBM - "Doomsday Orion" - capable of carrying such warhead. Not that it was very practical, of course...
------------------------------

Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

(Red Army lyrics from 1945)
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by Bluestrike2   » Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:35 pm

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Dilandu wrote:
Bluestrike2 wrote:If they wanted to have a more active role, the command crew’s tech base would have allowed them to monitor the planetary population and remove anyone who jumped a bit too far. Take them to the enclave, explain the situation, and give them a choice: return home and work with the command crew, stay in the enclave, or sit in cryo until your genius can be safely appreciated. Beyond that, they could subtly manipulate events and philosophies, reintroduce the scientific method at some optimal point to lay the ground work, and generally getting things ready for when they can kick things off into high gear.



And this could pretty well led to another bad situation: the technocratic elite in enclaves which controlled and suppressed the outside population for centuries under the pretext of "Gbaba threat".


Sure, but that sort of control and oversight would be intrinsically tied to sophisticated AI systems even though you aren't tagging everyone. It would be simple enough to program in certain fixed restrictions on both what's made accessible to human users and what they can do with it. Add in other restraints, such as cutting off access to various TF tech if it's abused, and you've got a strong incentive to avoid such temptations.

With that said, I do think that a command staff becoming resentful or otherwise corrupted would be one of the risks the mission planners would have at least considered. Maybe not with alarm for the first generation, but with the following ones even though I don’t think it was a significant risk relative to everything else. Their extended lifespans would go a long way towards hedging against that; with the majority of the original command crew still around to help raise their children and grandchildren, and with them firsthand knowledge of the threat *and* what's needed to be able to stand up to the Gbaba, I think you'd have a collective ethos that's remarkably resistant to such temptations (whether they be bitterness or a desire for personal power).

Part of that would be because of who they are: almost all of them are military personal. Everything suggests that the TF grew out of western democratic traditions; if that's the case, then it suggests that their military traditions carried over as well. Obedience to the Constitution and elected civilian control, as well as finely-honed principles of honor and a commitment to duty, are all bone-deep cultural principles in the military. They're drilled into its members at every level from the very beginning. It's one reason why the military accepts and recognizes civilian control as "the proper subordination of a competent, professional military to the ends of policy as determined by civilian authority" (Samuel Huntingdon) so absolutely.

The risk of a widespread military coup in the United States is effectively zero. The same would likely hold true for the Terran Federation. That also explains why they didn’t mutiny against Langhorne when they learned what he did and his actions in pushing Shan-wei and those who would vote against him off the Administrative Council. Despite his actions, they still recognized his role as chief administrator and accepted the situation once it was voted on by the civilian government. It wasn’t until after a brutal act of mass murder that a number of command crew members were willing to mutiny.

Besides that military ethos, they were all raised in a unified, democratic culture that shaped *all* of their political experiences. Abandoning it entirely is a significant step, the sort that’s really unlikely absent some overriding factor. The goal of the original command staff, as well as any AIs and virtual personalities present, would be to reinforce those ideals and prevent any deviations from arising in the first place.

The other major factor would, of course, be their numbers: textev suggests that all TF ships were heavily automated with small crews. There weren’t a large number of them present; maybe a few thousand at most.

Even if their total fertility rate was equivalent to that of the United States today (not a guarantee, since the TF’s culture saw bringing children into a doomed world as irresponsible and selfish—not a mindset that’s easy to change quickly), they’d never have the sort of numbers needed to build an authoritarian planetary government capable of going interstellar while also building up a military force capable of holding off the Gbaba or any other species that might threaten them (remember, they traveled ten years in hyper across a region of space they have zero knowledge of). To build up their forces and colonies, they’d have to integrate non-enclave society in massive numbers. While simultaneously educating them and giving them access to modern tech.

In any case, the religious approach didn’t really avoid the possibility of an abusive, authoritarian power. It created one all on its own and gave it divine backing. In truth, it’s probably an even worse outcome. The people in the Temple might not understand the technology behind its mystic systems, but the end result is the same: they’re isolated in a cocoon that separates them from the normal Safeholdian experience.
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by Dilandu   » Sat Aug 20, 2016 2:40 am

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Bluestrike2 wrote:The risk of a widespread military coup in the United States is effectively zero. The same would likely hold true for the Terran Federation. That also explains why they didn’t mutiny against Langhorne when they learned what he did and his actions in pushing Shan-wei and those who would vote against him off the Administrative Council. Despite his actions, they still recognized his role as chief administrator and accepted the situation once it was voted on by the civilian government. It wasn’t until after a brutal act of mass murder that a number of command crew members were willing to mutiny.


Please. The risk of German Empire military coup was considered effectively zero for decades. And then the 1918 came, and when the Navy realized, that they would be slaughtered "in the name of honour", they threw all this false-based loyality away and get rid of their government.

The United States military simply never faced (yet) the situation bad enough, that the coup could be considered an effective way out of this. Imagine USA in the Germany's situation - fighting a losing war that they themselves started, the population suffered, the military is decimated and have no hopes to change the situation - but the leaders are still willing to threw millions to death just in hope that "something would happens".
------------------------------

Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

(Red Army lyrics from 1945)
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Re: Possible way to take out the OBS
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:08 pm

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Welcome to the "back room" and don't let the arm chair QB stop you from tossing your ideas onto the table.




msmitsc wrote:Has anyone thought of reflecting the laser defense system of the OBS back on it. All it would take would be laser quality mirrors set up in the X,Y Z axis. Released in an orbit that would bring them close enough to trigger the defense lasers, this would result in any laser fired at the reflectors being sent right back to the source.

Of course this action could cause the system to wake up what ever is sleeping under the early.

Another problem is that even if the OBS is damaged into a nonworking state. The orbit of the entire system could decay leading to an uncontrolled MASSIVE strike on the surface.

So my suggestion is that OWL constructs a swarm of these reflectors to have on standby to be released into orbit take out the OBS if needed for a last ditch defense.
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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