ATST Snippet #1

DrakBibliophile wrote:IMO Thirsk had been in that "the dark drunk soul destroying funk" because the family he had "sacrificed his honor for" were killed anyway.

Now Merlin not only tells him that his family is alive but tells him that Cayleb won't threaten his honor but that he is free to do "what his honor demands".

Now Thirsk's problem is figuring out "how to do what his honor demands" as well as figuring out "how to explain his renewed spirit" to his friends.

One hopes that Thirsk will amend hamlet's course of action. He should come out of seclusion and his whiskey bottle to present to the world a new Earl Thirsk. One that is still as diligent in his duties but with far less care of what the Inquisition wishes from him. That may well come off as being nuts, but so what?

He does have one thing he can hang his hat on, after all. He knows Cayleb cares enough for what he can do in Dohlar to rescue Thirsk's children and grand-children to enable him doing just that. He should be fairly certain that the seijin network will keep an eye on him. That means that he will have some heads up if he runs into trouble with the Inquisition. Under those assumptions why not milk the clandestine Charisian support for all its worth?

So, Thirsk is going to act aggressively without caring if he attracts the Inquisition's ire. By doing this he can shield his juniors because the Inquisition and Maik can honestly report that Thirsk has a few screws loose. Not loose enough o adversely impact his duties, but enough that his social skills have deteriorated. He no longer cares whom he offends, even the Inquisition.

I wonder if he will ever guess just how perceptive the seijins are and begin talking to his daughters' paintings knowing the seijins will hear? Talk about really pulling a Hamlet.

Yes and no, Don. The Writ still enshrines the Safeholdians' personal and primary responsibility to God. In this Safeholdians have failed. Charis absolving other nations of their responsibility is wrong. Treating all those nations that ignored God's commands as if they bore no responsibility because the human agents in the CoGA said to is very much absolving those other realms of their responsibility.

If the CoC is to survive a post jihad Safehold, then it must establish the Safeholdian's individual responsibility to God and the Safeholdian nation's primary responsibility to God. To do that they must take such a responsibility seriously, including holding violators of that responsibility to account.

I agree that just punishment must be meted out. Setting a purely financial punishment means that the lives that were treated like so much refuse could be replaced with money. They cannot. Some sort of pain or loss must be extracted. Destroying some part of the city will do it. Extracting an island to build and ICN outpost to ensure other POWs would fare better would also do it. A purely monetary payoff would be a crass gesture to the surviving families. Money and some other sacrifice would not.

n7axw wrote:Gracious, you guys do long posts...

I'm not sure I am ready to scapegoat Rahnyld... Abdiction would do. He doesn't really want the job of being king anyway.

The best way to deal with Dohlar is make friends. I do think that reparations for turning over Manthyr and his people as well as the survivors of the Battle of the Narrows. This would include compensation to the victims families.

As we consider justice for what happened in Dohlar, or for that matter Delferak, we have to remember that before Charis happened by, what we had on Safehold was a world wide theocracy. We know from textev that Zhames had no desire for a war with Charis. But we also know that it didn't occur to him to protest or say no to Zion or the inquisitors when it it came time to close the port at Feryad or confiscate Charisian ships. Zion's sayso was the law. Even kings retained their thrones with Zion's permission. For tht matter Siddarmark found it neccessary to undermine the order rather than openly defying it.

So when the order to turn over the prisoners came to Dohlar, with the exception of Thirsk who protested the affront to his honor, everybody assumed that they were bound to obey those orders. After all, that's how it had always been. Zion's authority had always been a religious and moral imperative.

That is how it had been for Charis too until the Go4 launched the fleets to attack Charis and burn their homes down around their heads. That broke the imperative for Charis just as the SoS broke it for Siddarmark.

Considering all of this, I would agree that there still has to be a penalty for turning those prisoners over. But I think it should be financial rather than vengeance. True justice for the fate of the prisoners must rest where the actual effective authority for making the decision about that rested. At that time, the authority rested in Zion. That is where Charis must seek justice.

Don

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Peter2 wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:
[snip]

If Charis can can sign an equitable agreement with Dohlor, . . .

[snip]

There's a difference between signing anything and just leaving Dohlar alone to try and sort itself out.

There could be a significant obstacle to a formal agreement between the EoC and Dohlar, namely that the EoC is allied with Siddarmark. I know that Desnairian soldiers have brutalised substantial areas of Siddarmark, but I cannot remember how much damage Dohlaran troops have done to that country and its citizens. If a lot, then Siddarmark is not going to appreciate its main ally not helping with its perfectly justified quarrel with with King Raynald and his armies. Don't forget that Siddarmark is a democracy, the people have a voice, and the rulers had better not forget that.

It's a decent point, but I really don't see Siddarmark standing in the way of a treaty between the EoC and Dohlor that knocks Dohlor out of the Jihad, especially if it includes "Though shalt not bother Siddarmark either!" provisions. Any sort of non-aggression agreement extracted from Dohlor would be for the EoC and its allies.

And it will be action by the EoC that will force Dohlor to sort itself out.

Siddarmark has a lively bone to pick with Desnair, because there are centuries of history between them, but their focus is pushing the AOG out of Siddarmark and helping the EoC put a noose around Clyntahn's neck. Dohlor is a sideshow, and Earl Hanth is steadily pushing Rychtyr back into Dohlor. Siddarmark is standing up new regiments as fast as it can, but they have more important places to deploy them, starting with re-garrisoning and holding territory the EoC took back from the AOG, and progressing to where the Siddarmark Army can lead the attack on applicable fronts.

It's going to need tact, diplomacy, and a humungous amount of very skillful fast talking to put over the point that the enemy is the Go4 and their minions, not the states that have been dragooned into supporting them. And even so, I don't expect any any number of words or any amount of diplomatic oil to convince a man whose wife and daughters have been raped and murdered, or a woman whose husband and sons have been subjected to the Judgement of Schueler. A lot of them will want blood, and I for one can see where they're coming from.

They sure will, but the first blood they'll want will be from the Siddarmark army units who mutinied in the Rising, and the Temple Loyalists who supported them. An interesting question is what will happen to the Temple Loyalists driven into Duchairn's refugee camps in the Border States. I don't see the Siddarmarkians who remained loyal to Stohnar welcoming them back home. Most of the Siddarmarkians loyal to Stohnar who survived that will likely hold the opinion that the only good Temple Loyalist is a dead one, and will be happy to convert any they can get their hands on to "good" status.

Dohlor was part of the Jihad, but has already paid a heavy price for it. So has Desnair, but there's more history and stored animosity between them than there is with Dohlor.

IMO, if push comes to shove, then the EoC would do best not to risk its ties with Siddarmark. Charis has a lot more in common with them than with any other of the mainland states.

I don't see it as all that big a risk. I think Stohnar will be happy if the EoC knocks Dohlor out of play and he can concentrate his attentions firmly on the Western front.

Whatever happens, the repercussions of Clyntahn's attack of bile are going to reverberate for many many years. In the real world, it would take centuries to reach the point of "happy ever after".

Yes, but see above about where the worst problems will be. Siddarmark has suffered through civil war fomented by Clyntahn even more than it has suffered from being invaded by the Army of Justice. Brother against brother is always worse than family against outsiders. Those wounds will take a long time to heal.

And while Siddarmark is a sort of democracy, the franchise is restricted to about 15% of the population. I don't recall details being given about just when and how new elections are called for, but Stohnar is calling the shots, and I don't see him leaving office as Lord Protector until he chooses to hang it up, nor do I see the people who have the vote calling for him to do so.
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Dennis

So dohlar will be tasked with fleet operations, keeping the langhorne canal open for business to supply the front, protect their nation and ensure that the charisian can't use the canals to access their region.
While thirsk is in charge of the fleet, who would be in charge of the land border and other needed positions? I doubt th risk would allow an attack on his home soil, but allowing the canal head to be destroyed, eliminating a great part of the church logistics for the border states and the republic border.

While the church destroyed locks, who originally owned that city to the north of Dohlar that is a sea connection to the canal system? If the charisians can repair and advance, their own iron class could be in a position to harm the longhorn canal.

DMcCunney wrote:

Randomiser wrote:NO way South Harchong is going to allow trade with a neutral Dohlar. SH are part of the most fanatically Temple Loyalist country on Safehold. So that idea is out.

That assumes South Harchong continues to be part of the Harchong Empire. With the right sort of stresses, they might just secede.

That's a huge assumption of your own right there, with no textev that it might happen and no mention of it in your original post.

DMcCunney wrote:

Randomiser wrote:The future of the RDN fleet - the surviving ships will be joining the ICN as with every other defeated fleet we have seen. Why ever not?

Because the other defeated fleets in question belonged to realms that are now part of the Empire. I do not see Charis adding Dohlor to the fold. Dohlor wouldn't want to be added, and Charis doesn't need to add them to accomplish their aims.

That's just not so. In AMF for example the Charisians defeat 3 enemy ships capturing one and the next thing we see it has been taken into Charisian service at Claw Island. Same book in the battle where explosive shells are first used the ICN capture 30ish Harchongian galleons intact and are delighted about how that will help improve the number of galleon hulls they have. And so on through all the rest of the books. Converting good captured hulls to their own use is standard practice for both sides

DMcCunney wrote:You do if you have successfully negotiated a binding treaty with a former opponent that states they are a former opponent, and their navy will not be used against you. If the treaty comes about as part of an object lesson in what happens if they try, said treaty is is more likely to be honored.

When they are dealing with a new government that basically came about by means of a coup how can they possibly have sufficient confidence that government will survive to keep it's promises?

DMcCunney wrote:

Randomiser wrote:Edit - On Thirsk's options/decisions - He takes his oath to King Ranahld seriously. However, if the King is not acting as a free agent in the interests of Dohlar but is clearly under coercion from the Inquisition in giving certain orders, what action does an oath to Ranahld require?

Why Rahnyld gives an order will be a matter of speculation, and largely irrelevant. "He's the King. He gave an order. We obey it."

If you think Thirsk is operating on such a cardboard cut-out view of ethics and responsibility, you are not reading the same books I am. Many Christian moral theories, and the Writ contains a huge amount of Christian scripture, recognise a difference in the moral quality of free and constrained actions, at least to some degree. If the king isn't a free agent that might well loosen the degree to which Thirsk feels bound to obey, in his new personal circumstances.

SYED wrote:So dohlar will be tasked with fleet operations, keeping the langhorne canal open for business to supply the front, protect their nation and ensure that the charisian can't use the canals to access their region.

I can't see how the Dohloran navy can protect the Holy Langhorne canal. It runs from the Temple lands, through several Border States, and terminates at Lake City in Siddarmakr's Tarikah province. (See the Border States map. The canal is highlighted in blue.)

How does the Dohloran navy get there to protect it?

The main Dohloran navy strength is concentrated in the Bay of Gorath and points west, and I don't believe Dohlor really has naval vessels that can operate on the canal, save the screw galleys. If the ICN can successfully get an ironclad onto the Holy Langhorne, the screw galleys aren't likely to stop it. (Though as I recall, the Holy Langhorne is one of the early canals, originally created by Shan Wei's teams, and not as wide or deep as later ones. The current City class ironclads might not be able to use it, and I'm not sure about the earlier class like Delthak.)

The greater threat to the Holy Langhorne is from the land, if the ICA can pull off a flanking attack with the aim of putting it out of commission.

While thirsk is in charge of the fleet, who would be in charge of the land border and other needed positions? I doubt Thirsk would allow an attack on his home soil, but allowing the canal head to be destroyed, eliminating a great part of the church logistics for the border states and the republic border.

Good question. It ought to be Ahlverez, but he's under an Inquisition cloud for retreating and trying to save part of the army after Harless's terminal stupidity. Rychtyr would really rather not retreat back to Dohlor proper, since he's concerned the forces freed up by the Army of Justice's destruction might just be used to invade Dohlor. (Though he stated being a Dohloran was a factor in his thinking, and Charis did have other targets to go after.)

I don't think Charis wants to invade Dohlor at all if it doesn't have to. If it wants to invade anything, it will be the Temple Lands. (Cayleb did fantasize a while back about the ICN being able to totally dominate Hsing-wu's Passage and put ICA troops ashore to occupy Zion. That can't happen for a while, but it's a goal.) If the ICN can take the Dohloran navy out of the equation, it can then dominate the eastern half of the Passage as well as the western half, for the part of the year the Passage is unfrozen. I don't think Harchong has anything that could interfere after the destruction of the Navy of God in the Markovian Sea.

While the church destroyed locks, who originally owned that city to the north of Dohlar that is a sea connection to the canal system? If the charisians can repair and advance, their own iron class could be in a position to harm the longhorn canal.

You mean Dairnyth? I believe that's Dohloran territory. That has a sea connection from the Bay of Vess, and connects to the Dairntyh-Alyksburg canal. Losing that would be painful to Dohlor, but wouldn't help Charis threaten the Holy Langhorne. (I don't if the rivers depicted running north-south would permit naval vessels to reach the Langhorne from down there.)
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Dennis

My thought is the triggering event for Thrisk and the Dohlarian Navy is the order for the surviving officers of the ships that lost the Charisian sailors who where being sent to to Question at the Temple to also be sent to Question.

Will some of the Navy mutiny and try to prevent the COG's action? The crews are loyal to the Church but have they begun to distinguish between the COG and Clinton? Will the mutiny of the English fleet during the Napoleonic Wars be used as a template (not motivationally) for DW's "resolution".

With the Army firmly supporting its commanders who also would probably disinclined to support the Inquisition due to threat of the Kingdom posed by the Chrisian Army and Navy, and a conduit existing between Thrisk and the Army, a limited revolution to protect Dohlar is possible.

Regarding this idea of a RDN mutiny in response to turning over the crews of the Dohlaran POW transports to the Inquisition.

I tend to doubt the crews would mutiny without the officer corps backing the idea. The officers wouldn't back a mutiny without some idea that a mutiny would succeed in both actually freeing the crew and keeping most of the mutineers alive. Without a reasonable chance of success in those two particulars, no officer worth his salt would back a mutiny.

So in all likelihood only if that crew actually gets sent to Zion will the RDN begin considering mutiny. That is unless Thirsk begins organizing the mutiny and I am unsure he is ready to go quite that far. After they get sent, perhaps Thirsk will begin making plans.

So the crews get sent to Zion, then what?
I suspect that should the KH VIIs be available at that time, we get a second rescue. This time, the message sent to Dohlar is that since the RDN cannot be trusted to take care of their own crews in the face of the murderous demands of the Inquisition, Charis has to. The captured crew will be held at Claw Island pending the cessation of hostilities. The ICN will of course continue to treat their honorably surrendered foes with the courtesy due any child of God.

With that as a precursor, what will happen once the KH VIIs steam into sight? I predict mass surrender regardless of what Thirsk wants.

PeterZ wrote:Regarding this idea of a RDN mutiny in response to turning over the crews of the Dohlaran POW transports to the Inquisition.

I tend to doubt the crews would mutiny without the officer corps backing the idea. The officers wouldn't back a mutiny without some idea that a mutiny would succeed in both actually freeing the crew and keeping most of the mutineers alive. Without a reasonable chance of success in those two particulars, no officer worth his salt would back a mutiny.

Yep. That's the problem with mutinies. Everybody has to be on board or they're likely to fail.

Whether everyone will be on board will be a complex issue. Thirsk might be. His direct reports might be. What about the ordinary seamen? Many of them were impressed, but Thirsk was able to get agreement that Mother Church would be the employer of record and see their families got their pay if desired. Given that and their inherent loyalty to Mother Church, would the crews obey orders to mutiny? (They might well, but I'd be reluctant to assume they would.)

So in all likelihood only if that crew actually gets sent to Zion will the RDN begin considering mutiny. That is unless Thirsk begins organizing the mutiny and I am unsure he is ready to go quite that far. After they get sent, perhaps Thirsk will begin making plans.

After Merlin's visit telling him his family is safe, Thirsk has one major concern off his mind. One interesting question is what Bishop Maik might do if Thirsk hints he will try to prevent the transfer of his people to Zion to face Clyntahn. We have hints Bishop Maik is deeply unhappy about the idea, and agrees with Thirsk the crews were not at fault, but was handed blunt non-discretionary orders. At what point will he decide he can no longer obey his oaths to the Grand Inquisitor?

So the crews get sent to Zion, then what?
I suspect that should the KH VIIs be available at that time, we get a second rescue. This time, the message sent to Dohlar is that since the RDN cannot be trusted to take care of their own crews in the face of the murderous demands of the Inquisition, Charis has to. The captured crew will be held at Claw Island pending the cessation of hostilities. The ICN will of course continue to treat their honorably surrendered foes with the courtesy due any child of God.

With that as a precursor, what will happen once the KH VIIs steam into sight? I predict mass surrender regardless of what Thirsk wants.

The question is timing.

How might the KH VIIs be involved in a rescue? If the KH VIIs arrive in Gorath Bay soon enough and demonstrate trying to fight them is suicide, the crew being held for shipment to Zion can simply be taken into custody by the ICN. Thirsk will know the ICN will treat them honorably and give them proper care pending cessation of hostilities.

If they don't, there may still be an attempt to transport them to Zion.

Given what happened to the last groups Clyntahn tried to have sent by sea, I doubt Clyntahn will be enthusiastic about transport by ship, and likely won't trust the Dohloran navy to do it in any case. But the Church doesn't have many ships of the Navy of God left, even if Clyntahn wants to do it that way.

Transport might be overland, as the EoC hasn't yet completely cut off Dohlor. If the EoC can plausibly learn of the attempt, and organize a strike to intercept them, it would be fun if they could do so, rescue the Dohloran navy personnel, and tell Dohlor "We have your people, they're safe and getting proper care, and we'll hand them back to you with no strings attached. We aren't Zhaspar Clyntahn!" It might, um, clarify the thinking of various senior Dohlorans.
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Dennis

As I recall Dennis, the KH VIIs are due to be completed in 1-2 months. They'll be able to finish their trials and arrive on the Gulf of Dohlar by the end of March. We know Claw Island has had coal stored since the ICN retook the base. One suspects that more coal has been sent forward regularly. The KH VIIs would have not spared the coal on their trip and surely made it before Spring 898.

Clyntahn has mentioned to Rayno he wanted to wait until Spring before sending for the crew and Thirsk. With his family dead, he might well making plans for taking Thirsk after all. The arrival of the KH VIIs may well forestall his plans for Thirsk in the hopes that the RDN might find away to defeat those ICN behemoths.

My thought on the KH VIIs being used to free the crew was that with Mabb and the seijin network actively patrolling the road ways to Zion, Clyntahn would see sending the RDN crews to Zion aboard ship as the less risky. Afterall, the ICN has shown little appetite for freeing their enemies. Those demon seijin on the other hand have more than shown their desire to attack jihadi forces under the command of the Inquisition.

Add to these considerations Hanth's and Eastshare's success and it may well appear that if Clyntahn wants his human sacrifices, he best send them by ship quickly before the ICN steamers cut off all oceangoing traffic. I am sure that Baron Sarmouth can replicate his feat using the KH VIIs much more easily than using his galleons.

So, if the Dohlaran crews are to be rescued by Allied forces, it will happen on the Oceans. By 2 bits anyway.