ATST Snippet #1

Alistair wrote:My thoughts:

Dohlar will flip Alverez (army) and Thirsk (Navy) and his sympathetic naval Intendant will see to that.

Dohlar may be able to cut some sort of deal to stop its citys getting flattened after the war as punishment for the torture/murder of POWs. What deal that would be I don't know joining the empire as a province? joining Siddarmark?

Too hard to tell from here but before people think its too far fetched that Dohlar would become part of the Empire I would say that what makes little sense from a practical sense makes HUGE sense from the inner circle end game plan.

That end game is infecting Dohlar with all of the Charis ideas and beleifs and allow Dohlar to be a base to spread to Harchong and the Temple lands and beyond.

DMcCunney wrote:

McGuiness wrote:Let's keep in mind that Clyntahn has no military authority to issue orders to the army or navy, which Kaitswyrth should have taken into consideration!

Clyntahn and cronies had been leaning on the long standing tradition that secular realms cooperate when called upon by Mother Church. It's how he got Chisholm, Corisande, Emerald, Tarot, and Dohlor to combines their navies under Hector of Corisande's overall command to go and crush Charis. It wasn't till after their combined navies suffered a crushing defeat that the CoGA realized they needed military power not borrowed from secular supporters and began trying to create it.

So if Thirsk refuses to obey an order from Clyntahn or anyone in the Inquisition for his fleet to engage in a hopeless assault against the ICN when it arrives with KH VII battleships, he hasn't done anything wrong.

Legally, no. In practice it's another matter.

Remember, he commands the Dohlaran Royal Navy. If King Ronald sends the same order, then Thirsk will have to examine his oath to the navy and his king. Do those oaths require him to sacrifice himself and his men on a mission that is nothing less than suicide? Did his king prevent his family from being seized as pawns by the Inquisition? Has his King acted with honor, or besmirched Thirsk's honor by turning his Charisian POWs over to the Inquisition - twice!

The question is whether Ranhyld will issue that order if Clyntahn says to. He's been depicted as a man totally unfit for his position, who had already had theoretical discussions with his First Councilor about abdicating, and hasn't done so only because the next in succession isn't old enough to assume the throne under Dohlaran law.

It's possible he'll dither into effective catatonia if told to issue the order. There's no way he'll refuse, but he might just be paralyzed into doing nothing. That will present a pretty predicament for Clyntahn. What does he do? Try to have the Inquisition arrest King Rahnyld? Leaving aside the minor problem of who will do the arresting and take him into custody, actually trying might have unintended consequences in Dohlor. I doubt any senior Dohlorans have much respect for Rahnyld, but he is their King, and they take their oaths seriously. The Inquisition arresting Rahnyld for not ordering Thirk and his navy to commit suicide by sallying against the ICN won't go over well.

But the alternatives for Thirsk will be either sit tight in port, get his people off their ships and to shore, and watch the ICN destroy his fleet, or formally surrender and have his ships confiscated and his men taken into custody as POWs. He'll know Charis will treat them honorably, but it will really go against the grain.

If it comes to it, Thirsk will probably sally and take losses to defend Gorath, but order surrender at the point where any rational observer will agree that further combat will simply get every ship sunk and every crew member killed.

I suspect Charis will prefer to do as little damage as possible, and will settle for a point where they can tell the Dohloran government:

"This can stop. We want Rahnyld's head for turning over our honorably surrendered prisoners to the Inquisition to face the Punishment. Depose Rahnyld and let us hang him or do it yourselves, replace him with a new King or a Regency Council till his successor is old enough, and drop out the Jihad and sign a treaty of neutrality that you actually keep and we'll go away and leave you alone. If we have to come back, we won't stop with Rahnyld's head, and every senior member of your government will need to find a deep hole to hide in.

And while you're at it, given who got you into this mess, you might consider telling the Inquisition they are no longer welcome in Dohlor. If you want assistance in kicking them out with their tails between their legs, we'll be delighted to provide it..."

In this case, the ICN is headed for Gorath in retribution for the death via the Punishment of several hundred Charisian POWs who surrendered to Thirsk in good faith, expecting to be treated according to the Laws of War. (Pre-jihad.) Their commander was Cayleb's flag captain at Armageddon Reef, and both Cayleb and Merlin were infuriated by the murder of their sailors and that there was nothing they could do to stop it. Time may have burned away some of the emotional intensity but not their thirst for justice. King Ronald recently turned a second batch of Charisian POWs over to the Inquisition, which were fortunately rescued. So perhaps the entire capital city of Dohlar will burn.

I doubt it.

Consider Ferayd, where Charis's response the the Inquisition incited massacre of Charisian merchant ship personnel was to level the waterfront and everything within two miles of it, and hang the Inquisitors who incited it. But they took pains to avoid civilian casualties and collateral damage. The Delferakan military took losses trying to defend Ferayd, but that would be expected by everybody. It's the military's job to die defending their country and people.

I don't see Charis being more vicious in reprisals against Dohlor. I think Cayleb and Sharleyan's attitude will be the sort of thing Prince Nahrman might say. If asked, his advice is likely to be "Shoot the leaders! Don't kill the poor guys just following orders and fighting for their country and their cause if you don't have to. Kill the ones who gave them the orders."

Perhaps a combination of Ferayd and Iythria - burn all the manufacturies of war materials, their supplies, and all their finished products. Burn the Dohlaran fleet, destroy the royal palace, and level every building within a predetermined distance from the harbor - and Gorath has a much larger harbor than Ferayd! Demand King Ronald's head on a pike, we can't forget that! (Thirsk is destined to serve on the regency council, after all!)

I think Cayleb and Sharleyan will settle for Rahnyld's head on a pike outside his palace, and Dohlor knocked out of the Jihad with a declaration of neutrality and a permanent non-aggression treaty.

This may seem like a bit much, but considering that it isn't much more than was required at Iythria, and Ferayd lost every building within a mile of the harbor for the deaths of a few dozen civilians, and for sending the survivors to Zion to face the Question and the Punishment. In Gorath's case, Cayleb and Sharley are seeking justice for the horrific torture and murder of hundreds of Charisian seamen who surrendered honorably under the laws of war, which precluded such treatment!

And the people you take measures against are those who allowed it to occur. That's Rahnyld and possibly some of his senior ministers. It doesn't mean the people who just happen to live in Gorath.

I'm sure Cayleb and Sharley decided on an equitable punishment long ago, but since they're also trying to knock Dohlar out of the war, dealing them a massive blow is going be necessary, and they can't work with a snake like King Ronald.

Remove and execute him, and they don't have to. I think his head with be the one real non-negotiable demand. His successor can sign the required treaties.

That's where Thirsk and Ahlverez and whoever else is willing to break from the jihad to save their country comes into the picture. The very survival of Dohlar as a nation is at stake. Millions of Siddarmarkans are screaming for blood, and the leaders of the army and navy have grave doubts about the cause they're serving, and even larger doubts about their ability to successfully defend their country. The eastern front between Dohlar and Siddarmark is bound to collapse under Hanth's reinforced assault sooner or later. Thirsk's fleet won't survive the "Battle" of Gorath, and by the time the battle arrives, Thirsk will be well aware of that.

I think Thirsk is already aware of that. His challenge has been to rebuild the Dohloran Navy into something that can face the ICN at sea, and he's likely well aware that the scarce resource is time. He needs to improve and expand the Dohloran Navy before Charis can divert significant ICN resources to deal with Dohlor, and everything he's heard courtesy of Bishop Maik will only tell him that Charis is building new ships even more powerful than the ones he'd have trouble taking now without a significant force advantage. If that new construction does come to call, he's screwed and he knows it.

He's not obligated to lead his fleet on a suicide mission, so when the KH VIIs appear, he can safely surrender his fleet and everyone will understand why and agree with his decision. (Except for the Inquisition, but nothing makes those guys happy except pulling the wings off of flies and torturing small, helpless animals.)

I'm afraid he'll have to take damage first. No one in Dohlor will understand what the KH VIIs are and can do, or will understand facing them is a suicide mission. They'll need to be taught a painful object lesson before Thirsk can order surrender. Given the history between Dohlor and Charis, his own people will want to fight, and will have to take nasty losses before they agree surrender is required.

Once Dohlar officially withdraws from the jihad, Thirsk technically hasn't committed treason or mutinied, since he was following the (eventual) lawful orders of his king. (Who is quite likely to be Ronald's son at that point, with Ronald either a Charisian prisoner for life, dead, or fled to Zion where Clyntahn will have him put to the Punishment as an example for any other rulers who might consider switching sides or declaring neutrality.)

If Rahnyld doesn't issue a royal order for Thirsk to have his Navy commit suicide, he's not committing mutiny or treason if he orders his navy to surrender honorably after taking losses facing an overwhelming enemy. But I'm afraid his navy will have to take its lumps first. He can't simply surrender when the KH VIIs appear, even if Merlin hastold him what he'll be facing. How does he justify it? Announce "Seijin Merlin appeared in my townhouse and showed me what the ICN had up it's sleeve"?

And I don't see Rahnyld being quite stupid enough to seek sanctuary in Zion, even if he could be sure he could get there. I'd say his days are numbered.
_______
Dennis

Sharp Claw wrote:When Merlin tells Thirsk that time is pressing and he still has a long way to go tonight , it makes me wonder if Merlin's next move will be to visit Ahlvarez?

DMcCunney wrote:* And speaking of which, a question I'd have for Dunstyn Oliver would be "If you wanted to make the fastest possible blue water capable steamship, how fast could it be?" A major issue the Empire faces is the fact that it spans a large area of ocean. Cayleb and Sharleyan already have the problem of transit times between Cheryath and Tellesburg to meet the constitution mandated requirement of having dual capital cities. Archbishop Michael will face even worse problems in traveling between the realms whose Church he is prelate of. I don't think the spare capacity exists to build them now, but I think fast VIP transports that can shrug off things like hurricanes and get senior Charisians to and from the various parts of the Empire in less time than it currently takes will be a definite need.Dennis

DMcCunney wrote:snip

* And speaking of which, a question I'd have for Dunstyn Oliver would be "If you wanted to make the fastest possible blue water capable steamship, how fast could it be?" A major issue the Empire faces is the fact that it spans a large area of ocean. Cayleb and Sharleyan already have the problem of transit times between Cheryath and Tellesburg to meet the constitution mandated requirement of having dual capital cities. Archbishop Michael will face even worse problems in traveling between the realms whose Church he is prelate of. I don't think the spare capacity exists to build them now, but I think fast VIP transports that can shrug off things like hurricanes and get senior Charisians to and from the various parts of the Empire in less time than it currently takes will be a definite need.
_______
Dennis