The ART of being reasonable

Theemile wrote:

caias wrote:I don't know if it would or wouldn't. I'm just saying there's a significant difference between "Our 400 SDs got thoroughly beaten by their 400 SDs while they had the advantage of a prepared defensive position with deployed pods and whatnot" and "Our 400 SDs just got steamrolled by their 40 SDs. Who cares how well prepared the defensive position was, we're outclassed even with 10-1 odds."

While a good point (which I agree with), facts don't seem important to the Mandarins at this point, 40 or 400, sneak attack or no - "IT WAS A TRAP" is the story they've spun, and 40 SDs could easily get transformed to 40 squadrons before the "official" story get released to the masses, just to protect the invincible SLN's rep.

I don't know if that's strictly true. In their internal conversations between mandarins, facts are important to them. They make an effort to be truthful with each other. They just haven't seemed to grasp that there's a possibility they could actually lose - if they manage to hold the SL together. They're more worried about internal dynamics than the war, and assuming that they'll win the war eventually (tech up and stall for time, the classic 4X tactic), because they're the Solarian League, dammit.

Now, Kingsford and Kolokotsov seem to have actually finally recognized that the ISLN isn't invincible after all, so harder lessons might not have changed anything. On the other hand, it might well have been a strong enough object lesson to actually make them shake up their priorities.

Clearly we'll never know, it's an interesting hypothetical, though.

cthia wrote:

caias wrote:In fact, given that Filareta fired anyway, in retrospect, it might have been more emphatic for the Sollies if Grayson and the RHN hadn't been there, and it may or may not have changed their diplomatic thinking. Or not, who can know with those apparatchiks.

With regards to my specific emboldening of your post.

Cais, forgive my taking so long to respond to this. Partly because I couldn't quite put my finger on the thought...

I agree that it might have been more emphatic for the Sollies regarding that particular battle but might not have painted an emphatic enough of a bigger picture.

cais wrote:I don't know if it would or wouldn't. I'm just saying there's a significant difference between "Our 400 SDs got thoroughly beaten by their 400 SDs while they had the advantage of a prepared defensive position with deployed pods and whatnot" and "Our 400 SDs just got steamrolled by their 40 SDs. Who cares how well prepared the defensive position was, we're outclassed even with 10-1 odds."

Absolutely, I concur. I'm just saying that their overarching concern was that Filareta doesn't folly. Showing such a stacked deck was supposed to hammer home how thoroughly hopeless Filareta's position was, to force him into surrendering without prejudice.

The arrogance of the League might not have viewed the defenses of the single neobarb alone, to be as insurmountable. Especially considering that Filareta wasn't a dummy, and had to've quickly arrived at the conclusion that the RMN's forces wouldn't be divided on two different fronts.

cthia wrote:Absolutely, I concur. I'm just saying that their overarching concern was that Filareta doesn't folly. Showing such a stacked deck was supposed to hammer home how thoroughly hopeless Filareta's position was, to force him into surrendering without prejudice.

The arrogance of the League might not have viewed the defenses of the single neobarb alone, to be as insurmountable. Especially considering that Filareta wasn't a dummy, and had to've quickly arrived at the conclusion that the RMN's forces wouldn't be divided on two different fronts.

We're in agreement. Clearly the GA did the right thing based on what they knew at the time. I was merely exploring a hypothetical from the perspective that if one knows that Filareta is going to Folly, how does one optimize the result. Sorry for the tangent.

cthia wrote:Vince, from the latter part of your post, top of page 2...

Vince wrote:After Spindle, the Mandarins were going to do the diplomatic dance with Manticore to play for time, then plow them under when the SLN had caught up technologically. Then came the Yawata Strike, and the Mandarins bought into Rajampet's (and the Malign's) plans to use Filareta to steamroller Manticore.

What exactly has changed that the League can't still "play for time?"

And while playing for time, still use that very big hammer to suppress any other uppity polities who're thinking of pulling a 'Beowulfie.' OFS should already be in antagonistic mode. A canned response to that sort or thing.

One thing that hasn't changed is Manticore's recognition that they absolutely, if they are to survive as a star nation, cannot allow the League to do the diplomatic dance "to play for time".

Three things that have changed is all of chapter 43 of Mission of Honor, where the existence of the Mesan Alignment was revealed, the war between the Manticore Alliance and the Republic of Haven was declared over, and the Star Empire accepted the Republic's offer of alliance against the Solarian League.

Four additional things that have changed is the addition of Beowulf and the Kingdom of Torch to the alliance, followed by Filareta's Folly, and the formal end to the Haven war by peace treaty in A Rising Thunder and Cauldron of Ghosts. And the liberation of the Kingdom of Meyers and the imminent liberation of the Meyers sector from the Office of Frontier Security in Shadow of Freedom. And Beowulf, Torch and Haven all share the Manticoran view that they absolutely cannot let the League do the diplomatic dance "to play for time" if they are to survive.

Two things waiting in the wings are Erewhon joining the Grand Alliance and the impending Maya sector succession, probably with Maya joining the Grand Alliance.

Finally, the slow ongoing dawning realization throughout various levels in the Solarian League that they are not just outclassed by the Grand Alliance, but the Mesan Alignment as well, and what that actually means for the both the individuals realizing this (to a greater or lesser extent) in the League, and the League as a whole.

While the League may attempt the diplomatic dance "to play for time", it will be the Grand Alliance who will choose the dance card, the music, the musicians, the venue, when the dance of musical chairs ends, and the terms on which the dance ends (and it WILL end, because the Grand Alliance is absolutely aware it cannot let the Solarian League to do the diplomatic dance "to play for time" if the Grand Alliance is to survive).

NOT the League, much to its dismay (and standing the previous diplomatic paradigm on its head).

People, nobody in the Manticoran government ever really expected the Sollies to listen to reason. Certainly, they hoped that after a couple of hundred Solarian superdreadnoughts had been turned into drifting wreckage reality might begin to percolate through the Mandarins' skulls, but they knew too much about how the Solarian League thought to actually expect it to happen.

The problem was that they had to at least attempt a negotiated settlement, using the most . . . emphatic tools they had, for several reasons. First, because it was the moral and responsible thing to do. Second, because if they want to avoid revanchism on the trimmed-back League's part, they need it on the record when the time inevitably comes to sit down at the peace table and dictate the terms of the treaty that they did their dead level best to not kill any more Solarians than they had to. Third, because up until the instant the trigger got pulled/the button got pushed, there was always the possibility of sanity breaking out somewhere, however unlikely that might be. And I should point out to you that their strategy vis-à-vis Filareta, and what would almost certainly have been the beginning of a negotiated peace process based on a realistic SLN appreciation of the two sides' relative combat capabilities, would have worked without the nanotech-programmed ops officer who fired after Filareta had accepted that he couldn't fight the Allies and win.

The Manties aren't surprised by the Mandarins' intransigence. They are disgusted, infuriated, exasperated, and really oh truly oh pissed-off by it, but not surprised. They and the Havenites are perfectly prepared to pursue diplomatic ends through the exchange of missile pods if that's the only way to make the League listen to reason, and they fully expect that that's precisely what they're going to have to do. But that doesn't absolve them of the moral responsibility to attempt to prevent the fully avoidable deaths of millions of Solarian spacers. Having done their damnedest to prevent it, and to get the League to wake up and smell the coffee where the Mesan Alignment is concerned, they will unflinchingly do whatever they have to do in the defense of their own citizens, but it's important to them — for personal philosophical and moral (and in some instances religious) reasons — to first try to avoid megadeaths. Even if they're "only" Solarians.

From the Solarian perspective, in one sense it's self-evidently true that Manticore and Haven can't win an extended war if the League is willing to commit the effort, expend the lives, and somehow pay for the R&D and construction budgets required. What the League hasn't quite grasped yet is that the Grand Alliance presents an existential threat to the entire League. They've always been able to "game" the situation in the past, and the sheer size of their polity and their industrial plant, coupled with their robust technological sector, tells them that within four or five years — possibly as many as ten — they will be able to duplicate Manticoran war-fighting technology at least well enough for their fleets to have a fighting chance with numerical superiority. In that calculation, they are quite correct, but what they haven't fully confronted — so far, at least — is that they don't have four or five years . . . unless the Grand Alliance chooses to give those years to them. What the Mandarins haven't figured out even yet is that the Grand Alliance is showing tremendous restraint and trying to minimize Solarian casualties.

To the extent that that restraint allows the Mandarins to go on lying to themselves about their ability to "eventually" defeat the Grand Alliance, it is a strategic mistake on Elizabeth and Eloise's part. It's just a little difficult even for someone as tough-minded as Elizabeth Winton or Eloise Pritchart to justify killing effectively defenseless men and women to make a point to their political overlords, however. Eventually, they may have to simply accept that they have to break some eggs — lots of eggs — to make their omelette, but despite what the other side's propagandists may be saying about them, neither of them delights in the slaughter of their enemies.

Vince wrote:

cthia wrote:Vince, from the latter part of your post, top of page 2...
What exactly has changed that the League can't still "play for time?"

And while playing for time, still use that very big hammer to suppress any other uppity polities who're thinking of pulling a 'Beowulfie.' OFS should already be in antagonistic mode. A canned response to that sort or thing.

One thing that hasn't changed is Manticore's recognition that they absolutely, if they are to survive as a star nation, cannot allow the League to do the diplomatic dance "to play for time".

Three things that have changed is all of chapter 43 of Mission of Honor, where the existence of the Mesan Alignment was revealed, the war between the Manticore Alliance and the Republic of Haven was declared over, and the Star Empire accepted the Republic's offer of alliance against the Solarian League.

Four additional things that have changed is the addition of Beowulf and the Kingdom of Torch to the alliance, followed by Filareta's Folly, and the formal end to the Haven war by peace treaty in A Rising Thunder and Cauldron of Ghosts. And the liberation of the Kingdom of Meyers and the imminent liberation of the Meyers sector from the Office of Frontier Security in Shadow of Freedom. And Beowulf, Torch and Haven all share the Manticoran view that they absolutely cannot let the League do the diplomatic dance "to play for time" if they are to survive.

Two things waiting in the wings are Erewhon joining the Grand Alliance and the impending Maya sector succession, probably with Maya joining the Grand Alliance.

Finally, the slow ongoing dawning realization throughout various levels in the Solarian League that they are not just outclassed by the Grand Alliance, but the Mesan Alignment as well, and what that actually means for the both the individuals realizing this (to a greater or lesser extent) in the League, and the League as a whole.

While the League may attempt the diplomatic dance "to play for time", it will be the Grand Alliance who will choose the dance card, the music, the musicians, the venue, when the dance of musical chairs ends, and the terms on which the dance ends (and it WILL end, because the Grand Alliance is absolutely aware it cannot let the Solarian League to do the diplomatic dance "to play for time" if the Grand Alliance is to survive).

NOT the League, much to its dismay (and standing the previous diplomatic paradigm on its head).

Welcome back, RFC

runsforcelery wrote:People, nobody in the Manticoran government ever really expected the Sollies to listen to reason. Certainly, they hoped that after a couple of hundred Solarian superdreadnoughts had been turned into drifting wreckage reality might begin to percolate through the Mandarins' skulls, but they knew too much about how the Solarian League thought to actually expect it to happen.

The problem was that they had to at least attempt a negotiated settlement, using the most . . . emphatic tools they had, for several reasons. First, because it was the moral and responsible thing to do. Second, because if they want to avoid revanchism on the trimmed-back League's part, they need it on the record when the time inevitably comes to sit down at the peace table and dictate the terms of the treaty that they did their dead level best to not kill any more Solarians than they had to. Third, because up until the instant the trigger got pulled/the button got pushed, there was always the possibility of sanity breaking out somewhere, however unlikely that might be. And I should point out to you that their strategy vis-à-vis Filareta, and what would almost certainly have been the beginning of a negotiated peace process based on a realistic SLN appreciation of the two sides' relative combat capabilities, would have worked without the nanotech-programmed ops officer who fired after Filareta had accepted that he couldn't fight the Allies and win.

The Manties aren't surprised by the Mandarins' intransigence. They are disgusted, infuriated, exasperated, and really oh truly oh pissed-off by it, but not surprised. They and the Havenites are perfectly prepared to pursue diplomatic ends through the exchange of missile pods if that's the only way to make the League listen to reason, and they fully expect that that's precisely what they're going to have to do. But that doesn't absolve them of the moral responsibility to attempt to prevent the fully avoidable deaths of millions of Solarian spacers. Having done their damnedest to prevent it, and to get the League to wake up and smell the coffee where the Mesan Alignment is concerned, they will unflinchingly do whatever they have to do in the defense of their own citizens, but it's important to them — for personal philosophical and moral (and in some instances religious) reasons — to first try to avoid megadeaths. Even if they're "only" Solarians.

From the Solarian perspective, in one sense it's self-evidently true that Manticore and Haven can't win an extended war if the League is willing to commit the effort, expend the lives, and somehow pay for the R&D and construction budgets required. What the League hasn't quite grasped yet is that the Grand Alliance presents an existential threat to the entire League. They've always been able to "game" the situation in the past, and the sheer size of their polity and their industrial plant, coupled with their robust technological sector, tells them that within four or five years — possibly as many as ten — they will be able to duplicate Manticoran war-fighting technology at least well enough for their fleets to have a fighting chance with numerical superiority. In that calculation, they are quite correct, but what they haven't fully confronted — so far, at least — is that they don't have four or five years . . . unless the Grand Alliance chooses to give those years to them. What the Mandarins haven't figured out even yet is that the Grand Alliance is showing tremendous restraint and trying to minimize Solarian casualties.

To the extent that that restraint allows the Mandarins to go on lying to themselves about their ability to "eventually" defeat the Grand Alliance, it is a strategic mistake on Elizabeth and Eloise's part. It's just a little difficult even for someone as tough-minded as Elizabeth Winton or Eloise Pritchart to justify killing effectively defenseless men and women to make a point to their political overlords, however. Eventually, they may have to simply accept that they have to break some eggs — lots of eggs — to make their omelette, but despite what the other side's propagandists may be saying about them, neither of them delights in the slaughter of their enemies.

Vince wrote:

cthia wrote:Vince, from the latter part of your post, top of page 2...
What exactly has changed that the League can't still "play for time?"

And while playing for time, still use that very big hammer to suppress any other uppity polities who're thinking of pulling a 'Beowulfie.' OFS should already be in antagonistic mode. A canned response to that sort or thing.

One thing that hasn't changed is Manticore's recognition that they absolutely, if they are to survive as a star nation, cannot allow the League to do the diplomatic dance "to play for time".

Three things that have changed is all of chapter 43 of Mission of Honor, where the existence of the Mesan Alignment was revealed, the war between the Manticore Alliance and the Republic of Haven was declared over, and the Star Empire accepted the Republic's offer of alliance against the Solarian League.

Four additional things that have changed is the addition of Beowulf and the Kingdom of Torch to the alliance, followed by Filareta's Folly, and the formal end to the Haven war by peace treaty in A Rising Thunder and Cauldron of Ghosts. And the liberation of the Kingdom of Meyers and the imminent liberation of the Meyers sector from the Office of Frontier Security in Shadow of Freedom. And Beowulf, Torch and Haven all share the Manticoran view that they absolutely cannot let the League do the diplomatic dance "to play for time" if they are to survive.

Two things waiting in the wings are Erewhon joining the Grand Alliance and the impending Maya sector succession, probably with Maya joining the Grand Alliance.

Finally, the slow ongoing dawning realization throughout various levels in the Solarian League that they are not just outclassed by the Grand Alliance, but the Mesan Alignment as well, and what that actually means for the both the individuals realizing this (to a greater or lesser extent) in the League, and the League as a whole.

While the League may attempt the diplomatic dance "to play for time", it will be the Grand Alliance who will choose the dance card, the music, the musicians, the venue, when the dance of musical chairs ends, and the terms on which the dance ends (and it WILL end, because the Grand Alliance is absolutely aware it cannot let the Solarian League to do the diplomatic dance "to play for time" if the Grand Alliance is to survive).

NOT the League, much to its dismay (and standing the previous diplomatic paradigm on its head).

Please forgive the snips where snipped, whereas the hope of any unsnipped mistakes has no bearing on upcoming snippets. A guy has to protect his head from the points of pitch-forks.

runsforcelery wrote:The Manties aren't surprised by the Mandarins' intransigence. They are disgusted, infuriated, exasperated, and really oh truly oh pissed-off by it, but not surprised.

Thanks for clearing that up. I was wrong about their emotions. I might point our that I also intimated that storyline seemed to support a bewilderment on the part of the RMN that the League wouldn't take advantage of a diplomatic resolution simply because it was logical. My point was that the League's decisions aren't based on logic, but arrogance - and that the GA can't come to terms with "it is what it is." I suppose, you being the author and all and by implication of your post, I can assume that that isn't the case either. Mea culpa, my apology.

runsforcelery wrote: They and the Havenites are perfectly prepared to pursue diplomatic ends through the exchange of missile pods if that's the only way to make the League listen to reason, and they fully expect that that's precisely what they're going to have to do. But that doesn't absolve them of the moral responsibility to attempt to prevent the fully avoidable deaths of millions of Solarian spacers. Having done their damnedest to prevent it, and to get the League to wake up and smell the coffee where the Mesan Alignment is concerned, they will unflinchingly do whatever they have to do in the defense of their own citizens, but it's important to them — for personal philosophical and moral (and in some instances religious) reasons — to first try to avoid megadeaths. Even if they're "only" Solarians.

This is all as it should be expected.

But this would have raised a brow, coming from someone else other that himself...

runsforcelery wrote:And I should point out to you that their strategy vis-à-vis Filareta, and what would almost certainly have been the beginning of a negotiated peace process based on a realistic SLN appreciation of the two sides' relative combat capabilities, would have worked without the nanotech-programmed ops officer who fired after Filareta had accepted that he couldn't fight the Allies and win.

The bold is my own and not the author's or the poster's, whom - just like Lady Harrington and Admiral Harrington - happen to share the same body. Those are simply limitations of mere mortals. ...

I wouldn't have thought that preventing Filareta's Folly would have had any bearing on the intransigence of overabundant League arrogance. I would have thought that the League would have downplayed the surrender of Filareta's fleet simply as a sane and noble attempt on Filareta's part to prevent the needless loss of so much tonnage or lives than need be, simply by returning to fight another day - having lost the element of surprise and put in the unfortunate situation where loose lips sink ships. And not having benefit of better intel of system defenses, how many fronts they'd actually be engaging and being mouse trapped. I would think that had that engagement not happened would have cancelled the fat lady singing in the minds of the Mandarins and they would simply have sent another fleet - supposedly more prepared, at a later date.

It would have amounted to the same disposition as in this scene with the Outlaw Josey Wales...

"I had to come back."

"I know."

https://youtu.be/C3Oa2tLrWqY

These would have been my thoughts in that situation - had himself not dispelled them.

I doubt that Filerta had a complicated Surrender Demand preprepaired by his superiors or the Mandarins.
More like: We have crushed your home fleet, surrender your planets, your naval forces out of system, the systems you possess outside of the Manticore Binary system and present your government to the field at Landing for internment.

Filerta may have had some concerns about what was going to be the cost in trems of ships and personel to take the Manticore Home System but he didn't really expect to have his fleet (truly massive) seriously damaged. The Fleet that was supposed to come through via Beowulf was probably intended as a way to provide guard and enforcement detachments to the other ends of the various termini and the systems related to them.

After all, they would have had "surrender" instructions as the probable last official acts of both the Queen (or successor) and the CO of the RMN to stand down and turn over the military assets and all of the systems that were now part of the Empire to control of the SL (designate military and civilian manager: OFS Commissioner- Protectorate of Manticore and ancillary systems

Can you imagine the potential for graft and just outright theft of goods and assets that post would bring? There would be actual bloodletting in the scramble to get top posts in that administration.

Brigade XO wrote:I doubt that Filerta had a complicated Surrender Demand preprepaired by his superiors or the Mandarins.
More like: We have crushed your home fleet, surrender your planets, your naval forces out of system, the systems you possess outside of the Manticore Binary system and present your government to the field at Landing for internment.

Filerta may have had some concerns about what was going to be the cost in trems of ships and personel to take the Manticore Home System but he didn't really expect to have his fleet (truly massive) seriously damaged. The Fleet that was supposed to come through via Beowulf was probably intended as a way to provide guard and enforcement detachments to the other ends of the various termini and the systems related to them.

After all, they would have had "surrender" instructions as the probable last official acts of both the Queen (or successor) and the CO of the RMN to stand down and turn over the military assets and all of the systems that were now part of the Empire to control of the SL (designate military and civilian manager: OFS Commissioner- Protectorate of Manticore and ancillary systems

Can you imagine the potential for graft and just outright theft of goods and assets that post would bring? There would be actual bloodletting in the scramble to get top posts in that administration.

How would the League have even accepted their own surrender? Shock. They would have had to endure the shame. And the SLN wouldn't have been able to wipe their computers.

How quickly would Manticore have repatriated the captured officers back with their government? If they had kept them, they wouldn't have added to the testimony given their superiors of their completely being outclassed.

Speaking of the ART of being reasonable. In the RMN's anticipation and reception of the Solarian League Navy during Operation Raging Justice...

Disclaimer: The poster is simply stating that this was the first type of plan that came to his mind in his natural attempt at trying to second-guess Harrington. Honor didn't want to kill anyone. And I always believed the old adage that you shouldn't back a snake into a corner, where his only recourse is to strike.

'Cause he's gonna.

When Honor said, I paraphrase, 'If we hammer them we hammer them hard." That didn't sound like the Salamander in that situation to me. Or maybe it did. But it didn't sound like Honor. IMO.

Unfortunately, in retrospect only, if this alternate course had been chosen instead, might even have made it more difficult, if not impossible, for the MAlign to program-in, as fatal a reply.

The plan that they came up with threw me a curve. I was surprised that Honor chose to "trap" Filareta. Intead of allowing the SLN to come in all fat, arrogant and happy, see the immense defenses then allowed to hyper out. But on the way out, the RMN could have used humor, and put on a magic show of traps and tricks - of materializing system pods, probes up their anuses err sinuses like proctologists err otolaryngologists and the dance of Apollo missiles pirouetting oh so closely around key ships in enemy fleets. But not pulling the trigger.

The RMN could have put on a mesmerizing show of tactics and technology in a serious yet humorous manner, getting the message across with humor and sleight of hand, but with the effect of having the enemy humorously running home with their proverbial tails tucked between their legs.

"Man, they had us dead to rights. Trap after trap they sprang on us. Yet they just let us go, without ever closing the door on our entire fleet - even though it was obvious, to us both!, that they so easily could have... at just about any ol' time."

They came.

They saw.

They bugged the phuck out!

Look at 'em run!

Then broadcast that on League HD.



Aside:
Honor knew she could have taken the fire. Shown that it wasn't going to get through. That's what she was trying to convey to Theisman. She could have "trusted" her technology and soaked up that fire.

More of a 'Let our next response not be out of vengeful spite, but out of a merciful reason.'

Honor knew she could have been more reasonable with her response. Had it not been for a natural reflexive tendency to react, anytime there's even a flinch during a Mexican standoff.