Logistics and the Coming Year

Dang! RFC didn't comment on my analysis of the Church's financial condition!

That might actually be a good thing, since it may prove that I'm right. He certainly wouldn't comment to pat me on the back!

Or possibly he just hasn't gotten around to it yet... I'm sure he has better uses for his time, and I probably didn't say much that he disagrees with - fingers crossed!

Thanks RFC

Damn dragons are big! some back of the envelope calculations assuming similar performance to elephants suggests that for this load to be pulled by a 4 dragon team would require the dragons to in the 20 ton range each!

(based on data that an elephant can haul up to a 900kg log on its own)

Silverwall wrote:Thanks RFC

Damn dragons are big! some back of the envelope calculations assuming similar performance to elephants suggests that for this load to be pulled by a 4 dragon team would require the dragons to in the 20 ton range each!

(based on data that an elephant can haul up to a 900kg log on its own)

If I remember correctly, it said in the books that a dragon could pull a greater proportion of its weight than an Elephant can.

ConnorM wrote:

Silverwall wrote:Thanks RFC

Damn dragons are big! some back of the envelope calculations assuming similar performance to elephants suggests that for this load to be pulled by a 4 dragon team would require the dragons to in the 20 ton range each!

(based on data that an elephant can haul up to a 900kg log on its own)

If I remember correctly, it said in the books that a dragon could pull a greater proportion of its weight than an Elephant can.

A dragon can haul a greater proportion of its weight than an ox can pull, and on a decent surface (not a paved road, only a hard, firm surface) with a properly designed freight wagon, an ox can pull about 5.5 times its own body weight. Dragons run in the 18-ton range for weight and they can produce more draft than an ox for the same reason an ox produces more draft than a horse: they have lower centers of gravity (ox advantage over horse and dragon advantage over ox) and they have an extra pair of limbs, both of which permit them to concentrate a lot more force (proportionately) on their yoke/breast strap. They can also carry much more proportionately than an elephant because an elephant is poorly shaped for pack saddles. A horse can carry a much greater percentage of its body weight than an elephant can because of the difference in body form; a dragon is longer, lower, and broader (proportionately) than an ox, much less an elephant or a horse. In addition, a huge element in determining the tractive resistance of a wheeled vehicle is the design of the wheel: the bigger the diameter, the higher the ratio between circumference and spindle, the broader the wheel rim (to spread the ground pressure and hence reduce resistance in soft going), and the lower the friction (i.e., the more efficient the bearings), the lower the tractive resistance and the greater the efficiency with which loads can be moved. Freight wagons on Safehold tend to have man-height wheels and considerably more efficient bearings than were available to 19th century military wagons.

If Old Earth had possessed dragons, the arguments in favor of military mechanization would have been much weaker than they were!

runsforcelery wrote:
A dragon can haul a greater proportion of its weight than an ox can pull, and on a decent surface (not a paved road, only a hard, firm surface) with a properly designed freight wagon, an ox can pull about 5.5 times its own body weight. Dragons run in the 18-ton range for weight and they can produce more draft than an ox for the same reason an ox produces more draft than a horse: they have lower centers of gravity (ox advantage over horse and dragon advantage over ox) and they have an extra pair of limbs, both of which permit them to concentrate a lot more force (proportionately) on their yoke/breast strap. They can also carry much more proportionately than an elephant because an elephant is poorly shaped for pack saddles. A horse can carry a much greater percentage of its body weight than an elephant can because of the difference in body form; a dragon is longer, lower, and broader (proportionately) than an ox, much less an elephant or a horse. In addition, a huge element in determining the tractive resistance of a wheeled vehicle is the design of the wheel: the bigger the diameter, the higher the ratio between circumference and spindle, the broader the wheel rim (to spread the ground pressure and hence reduce resistance in soft going), and the lower the friction (i.e., the more efficient the bearings), the lower the tractive resistance and the greater the efficiency with which loads can be moved. Freight wagons on Safehold tend to have man-height wheels and considerably more efficient bearings than were available to 19th century military wagons.

If Old Earth had possessed dragons, the arguments in favor of military mechanization would have been much weaker than they were!

Would it be correct to assume then that these large freight wagon wheels are also much wider than traditional cart wheels? Given the scenario described I assume the critical factor in wagon feasability is ground pressure on the wheels and digging in.

It would, but that's not the primary factor in moving heavy freight loads over established routes (which is one reason possession of the intact high roads is so critical). A Safeholdian high road has a lot in common with a concrete autobahn or interstate. On those surfaces, a wheel with a narrower rim actually has some advantages because there's less friction. The broader rim comes into its own on softer going (one reason for the "mud tracks" you'll see on pictures of wheeled trucks on the Eastern Front from WW II). By the same token, a metal rim/tire is superior to a wooden rim and a pneumatic tire (which is a-coming) is superior to a metal tire. Springs come into it, as well, and Safehold has leaf springs which are at least as efficient as the best available in the 19th century.

If you can find a good photo of an ambulance and a quartermaster's wagon from the American Civil War, you'll notice that the ambulance has both a broader wheel rim and better springs. That's obviously at least in part because the fact that it's going to be carrying a "cargo" of wounded men makes smoothness of ride a lot more critical, but it's also so that vehicles can move more rapidly through difficult terrain. Time is often more critical getting a wounded man to the surgeons than it is getting a case of hardtack to the cook.

Silverwall wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:
A dragon can haul a greater proportion of its weight than an ox can pull, and on a decent surface (not a paved road, only a hard, firm surface) with a properly designed freight wagon, an ox can pull about 5.5 times its own body weight. Dragons run in the 18-ton range for weight and they can produce more draft than an ox for the same reason an ox produces more draft than a horse: they have lower centers of gravity (ox advantage over horse and dragon advantage over ox) and they have an extra pair of limbs, both of which permit them to concentrate a lot more force (proportionately) on their yoke/breast strap. They can also carry much more proportionately than an elephant because an elephant is poorly shaped for pack saddles. A horse can carry a much greater percentage of its body weight than an elephant can because of the difference in body form; a dragon is longer, lower, and broader (proportionately) than an ox, much less an elephant or a horse. In addition, a huge element in determining the tractive resistance of a wheeled vehicle is the design of the wheel: the bigger the diameter, the higher the ratio between circumference and spindle, the broader the wheel rim (to spread the ground pressure and hence reduce resistance in soft going), and the lower the friction (i.e., the more efficient the bearings), the lower the tractive resistance and the greater the efficiency with which loads can be moved. Freight wagons on Safehold tend to have man-height wheels and considerably more efficient bearings than were available to 19th century military wagons.

If Old Earth had possessed dragons, the arguments in favor of military mechanization would have been much weaker than they were!

Would it be correct to assume then that these large freight wagon wheels are also much wider than traditional cart wheels? Given the scenario described I assume the critical factor in wagon feasability is ground pressure on the wheels and digging in.

Peter2 wrote:Yes. I saw a quote somewhere to the effect that old generals studied strategy, but modern generals study logistics..

The usual form of the quote is "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics."

Another statement of the principal is "An army marches on its stomach." Keeping your people fed in the field, let alone supplied with clothing, weapons, and ammunition could become an insuperable problem.

Safehold's high roads remind me a bit of Rome's. Roman road building was sophisticated and thorough. Part of the purpose of the roads was logistics. Roman legions could march, and the roads provided a good place for them to do it. The mobility the roads afforded the legions was one of the things that allowed Rome to create the empire and control it once they had.

And Nimue Alban recalls at one point an Academy instructor who said that Rome could conquer what became the Empire and hold it because they had the surplus to support and maintain a standing 40,000 man army, and no one else did.

Safehold is in a better position than Rome was, courtesy of genetically engineered plants courtesy of Shan Wei that produced high yields, and a basic understanding of agriculture and animal husbandry courtesy of Sondheim and Truscott, so Safehold could support a higher population density per area than Earth could at a comparable level of technology. But there are still intrinsic limits, witness the fact that Siddarmark has a population of about 130 million pre-Sword of Schueler, and an army of about 1% of that, with two thirds of that army being militia reserves.

Harchong's logistics get very interesting at this point. Most of the million and a half members of the Mighty Host of God and the Archangels are peasants pulled from the fields, and Harchong has a highly inefficient agricultural sector. They still rely on manual labor and techniques right out of Earth's Middle Ages when places like Charis and Siddarmark have long since adopted mechanical cultivation and harvesting aids.

How many peasants can you pull out of the fields before their agricultural sector collapses? And who will actually grow the food that will have to be shipped to the Mighty Host to keep it fed? I don't see the Temple Lands and the Border States having the capacity, let alone the willingness to do so. And we haven't heard much about South Harchong or Sodar thus far, but we might if they get expected to pick up a major share of the burden.

One thing that might put a crimp in the Mighty Host will be a collapse back home in Harchong. If South Harchong does what Sharleyan once suspected would happen and secedes, and North Harchong goes up in rebellious flames, what does the Earl of Rainbow Waters, the Mighty Host's commander, do when the Harchongese Emperor says "We need you back here! Now!" while Zion orders him to continue east to smite the heretics? (And I suspect he's smart enough to guess that arming and training a million+ peasants may have unintended consequences if he's called upon to bring them home to quell a revolt by the peasants still back on Harchong.)

Wars like this are about morale, and continue till one or both sides just don't want to fight anymore, even if they technically still can. Desnair is effectively out of the game. Dohlor is almost so. If Harchong crumbles b3ehind it, Mother Church may have no choice about opening truce negotiations, even if the Mighty Host has not yet engaged Eastshare and Green Valley, because the Mighty Host will be somewhat distracted.
_______
Dennis

The comment that Desnair is out of the game is almost but not quite right.

Remember those darn privateers who have been tying up close to half of the ICN in commerce protection...

Don

-

n7axw wrote:The comment that Desnair is out of the game is almost but not quite right.

Remember those darn privateers who have been tying up close to half of the ICN in commerce protection...

Don-

I said effectively out of the game. I'm aware of the privateers (and they are why Commodore Zhastro and the first four City class ironclads didn't go to Sharpfield on Claw Island as originally planned. Zhastro got tasked with Doing Something about the privateers. Since he got to bombard several of Desnair's major cities, he could console himself. )

But the main theater of the war is in Siddarmark, and Desnair can't make any contribution there. The Army of Justice was destroyed, and it will take them some time to raise and equip another, assuming they even try. It's made pretty clear Desnair is foot dragging for all they're worth, and there's real concern in Zion they may just declare neutrality and drop out of the Jihad. (Note the bit where Magwair tells Clyntahn Trynair won't let him hand over Earl Hennett to the Inquisition as a stand in for the late Duke Harless. Trynair's reasoning is that Hennett is related to half the great nobles in Desnair, and handing him over to the Inquisition for the Punishment is almost certain to cause Desnair to drop out.

They also have no effective navy after the destruction of the one they were building at Jahras, and can't create another when the ICN can simply destroy it too.

About the only contributions Desnair can make to the Jihad are commerce raiders and gold. The commerce raiders are a problem but can't materially affect Charis's chances if they are kept pruned back, and Zhastro's made a start on that. The bigger problem for Zion might be Charis interdicting their payments of the tithe to Mother Church, and if Charis can successfully seal off Silkiah, Duchairn's job gets a lot harder.
_______
Dennis

Hi DNCunney,

Welcome to the forums, please enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum!

You've done some excellent analysis, and while the dragons have grown in weight from MTaT [ie @15,000 lbs], the wagons still can carry 27 short tons, so divide your American civil war 1 ton wagons by 27, and the hundreds or thousands of dragons mentioned in passing supporting the armies become very reasonable.

Remember too that they can move 500 miles on a high road over 3+ 5days [16] and return [in 32 days total time] while delivering 3/4 cargo as they eat the last quarter, which Napoleon and the Wehrmacht would have killed for in preference to the small pange carts they were forced to use, as Sherman said the range of a [mid-19th century] army away from a rail-head was about 200 miles IIRC, but that presupposed that there was anything to spare from the horse fodder carried by a two horse 1 ton wagon.

Regarding the support of the MH at ~3.5 million total, it still represents less than 1% of the CoGA population in western Haven still under the Go4's control when Dohlar/Silkiah is lost; so less of a burden for the border states and the temple lands food supply etc than some may think, especially considering Safehold's food preservation technology and the pre-war food surpluses that may yet not be fully consumed, combined with the lack of famine reports Duchairn hasn't complained about [not that he isn't rather worried about the future], the CoGA/Go4 agriculture may be better organised and prepared to provide the required surpluses than some realise, with distribution being the future bottleneck, as more dragons are drafted for the front.

Granted the labor loss to North Harchong is much greater than the border states and temple land food burden [being almost 2% of its population], but it should still be capable of food surpluses [albeit much smaller ones] or at least feeding itself due to the multiple growing seasons, plus the probability of most of South Harchong's own food surpluses are normally shipped to the north.

It could very well be that the loss of the South Harchong food imports may be critical to North Harchong's food supply and stability, but we don't have any textev yet, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it in AtSoT with the complications you suggest.

Of course all the weapons that South Harchong is unable to ship north will be available if or when they decide to choose an independent path.

L

DMcCunney wrote:

Peter2 wrote:Yes. I saw a quote somewhere to the effect that old generals studied strategy, but modern generals study logistics..

The usual form of the quote is "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics."

Another statement of the principal is "An army marches on its stomach." Keeping your people fed in the field, let alone supplied with clothing, weapons, and ammunition could become an insuperable problem.

Safehold's high roads remind me a bit of Rome's. Roman road building was sophisticated and thorough. Part of the purpose of the roads was logistics. Roman legions could march, and the roads provided a good place for them to do it. The mobility the roads afforded the legions was one of the things that allowed Rome to create the empire and control it once they had.

And Nimue Alban recalls at one point an Academy instructor who said that Rome could conquer what became the Empire and hold it because they had the surplus to support and maintain a standing 40,000 man army, and no one else did.

Safehold is in a better position than Rome was, courtesy of genetically engineered plants courtesy of Shan Wei that produced high yields, and a basic understanding of agriculture and animal husbandry courtesy of Sondheim and Truscott, so Safehold could support a higher population density per area than Earth could at a comparable level of technology. But there are still intrinsic limits, witness the fact that Siddarmark has a population of about 130 million pre-Sword of Schueler, and an army of about 1% of that, with two thirds of that army being militia reserves.

Harchong's logistics get very interesting at this point. Most of the million and a half members of the Mighty Host of God and the Archangels are peasants pulled from the fields, and Harchong has a highly inefficient agricultural sector. They still rely on manual labor and techniques right out of Earth's Middle Ages when places like Charis and Siddarmark have long since adopted mechanical cultivation and harvesting aids.

How many peasants can you pull out of the fields before their agricultural sector collapses? And who will actually grow the food that will have to be shipped to the Mighty Host to keep it fed? I don't see the Temple Lands and the Border States having the capacity, let alone the willingness to do so. And we haven't heard much about South Harchong or Sodar thus far, but we might if they get expected to pick up a major share of the burden.

One thing that might put a crimp in the Mighty Host will be a collapse back home in Harchong. If South Harchong does what Sharleyan once suspected would happen and secedes, and North Harchong goes up in rebellious flames, what does the Earl of Rainbow Waters, the Mighty Host's commander, do when the Harchongese Emperor says "We need you back here! Now!" while Zion orders him to continue east to smite the heretics? (And I suspect he's smart enough to guess that arming and training a million+ peasants may have unintended consequences if he's called upon to bring them home to quell a revolt by the peasants still back on Harchong.)

Wars like this are about morale, and continue till one or both sides just don't want to fight anymore, even if they technically still can. Desnair is effectively out of the game. Dohlor is almost so. If Harchong crumbles b3ehind it, Mother Church may have no choice about opening truce negotiations, even if the Mighty Host has not yet engaged Eastshare and Green Valley, because the Mighty Host will be somewhat distracted.
_______
Dennis