The hypothetical 'Battle of Lovat'

munroburton wrote:
Well, by the time Foraker had it set up, White Haven's arrival at Lovat was expected. One should not totally discount the possibility that Foraker was prepared to blow all those SS ships out of space just to give her CO the option to surrender - and avoid killing a few hundred thousand PN personnel whose deaths wouldn't change Haven's military defeat.

Oh I don't doubt that Foraker did it on her own initiative, as an option. But she also didn't tell even her Admiral that she'd done it, she just did it (and used it). So they couldn't have contingency planned on "ok, so Foraker set this up, so when Admiral White Haven comes across the hyper limit, what we'll do is..."

All their contingency planning had to be around things they knew about, and that would have boiled down to them sitting around discussing "ok, so we're screwed when White Haven arrives, and StateSec wouldn't let us surrender if we tried. How are we going to fix this equation?"

jdtinIA wrote:Erls, If I was in Saint-Just's shoes the one place I would be sure to have backup informers (unknown to my commissars) would be on the flagships of every fleet.
Remember Saint-Just was not an amateur ( although his failure to replace commissars at irregular intervals point to his possibly loosing his edge ).

Actually in one of the books, Echoes of Honor I think, Eloise Pritchard actually referred to the possibility that there may have been informers even she did not know about despite being one of the most trusted of St Just's commissioners.

As for St Just being an amateur, he evidently was not, although all of his experience was more towards Internal Security & not towards dealing with the military. He recognised this as well as witness by his appointment of Erasmus Fontein to act as Esther McQueen's Commissioner. The problem he had was a lack of suitable or qualified commissioners... & many of those that he had would have been like those in Twelfth Fleet, identifying more closely with the naval officers they served alongside.

So he was stuck between a rock & a hard place.

Keep in mind, by the time White Haven would have arrived, the State Sec SD's are glowing balls of wreckage, and I'd imagine that Giscard would quickly reorganize his remaining ships into at least a defensive formation, on the off chance that the RMN is coming for blood no matter what. Plus, most of the RN officers trained by Amos Parnell have been honorable men and women, and Giscard was an admiral when Caslet was still a commander.

Given Giscard's actions at Basilisk later, I suspect that his response would be the same as Tourville's was at the Battle of Manticore, or every other honorable RN officer: surrender with safe terms for the crews.

hmmmm i thought that Honor was the admiral that took lovat and
killed giscard? am i getting my books mixed up?

Gun Boat Diplomacy wrote:hmmmm i thought that Honor was the admiral that took lovat and
killed giscard? am i getting my books mixed up?

No, but you are getting your situations mixed up. The thread is discussing the end of Ashes of Victory, when Giscard and Tourville were preparing for the doomed defense of Lovat against White Haven's Eighth Fleet during Buttercup.

caias wrote:

Gun Boat Diplomacy wrote:hmmmm i thought that Honor was the admiral that took lovat and
killed giscard? am i getting my books mixed up?

No, but you are getting your situations mixed up. The thread is discussing the end of Ashes of Victory, when Giscard and Tourville were preparing for the doomed defense of Lovat against White Haven's Eighth Fleet during Buttercup.

White Haven was less than a month from pulling the trigger on Lovat during Buttercup, when the news of the assassination of Cromarty stopped his offensive. Not exactly sure why it stopped his offensive, iirc the news was not accompanied by a 'hold position' order. And shortly after he was informed about the assassination, is when Saint-Just did his little peace talk trick thanks to High Ridge government.

We're just debating what may have happened if White Haven hadn't held position, and delayed his next offensive. I'm sure 90% of the Eighth Fleet would not have hesitated if WH had decided to continue operations, he was really just waiting on more fresh reloads and some routine maintenance to happen. So if he'd been willing to accept the off-scene overdue maintenance he did during the Trevor's Star campaign, he would have immediately informed his fleet of what happened, and done some form of "the Peeps just assassinated the Duke of Cromarty, so let's kick Haven's front door in at Lovat and say hello to their Capital Fleet! ARE YOU WITH ME?" sort of speech, and *poof* into hyper, where no stand-down order can reach them.

My impression of the passage in the book was that they were less than 24 hours from kicking off the advance on Lovat when the message was received regarding the assassination attempt on QEIII and PBXI.

Unless off camera there were instructions to stand down I can't think of any reason why White Haven did not proceed with the advance on Lovat.

(other than plot of course )

George J. Smith wrote:My impression of the passage in the book was that they were less than 24 hours from kicking off the advance on Lovat when the message was received regarding the assassination attempt on QEIII and PBXI.

Unless off camera there were instructions to stand down I can't think of any reason why White Haven did not proceed with the advance on Lovat.

(other than plot of course )

It wasn't the assassination attempt that finally derailed Operation Buttercup - it was Saint-Just's dispatch boat with a ceasefire offer that arrived at wherever Eighth Fleet was before its planned attack on Lovat. White Haven had to relay that message or he'd be committing a war crime.

I think Hamish's initial worry was more that High Ridge would claim the victory dividend, using it to shape a post-war Manticore more electorally favourable to the 'traditional' opposition parties. At that earlier point, an outright military victory was expected by everyone - even Saint-Just thought his ceasefire offer would be rejected!

munroburton wrote:

George J. Smith wrote:My impression of the passage in the book was that they were less than 24 hours from kicking off the advance on Lovat when the message was received regarding the assassination attempt on QEIII and PBXI.

Unless off camera there were instructions to stand down I can't think of any reason why White Haven did not proceed with the advance on Lovat.

(other than plot of course )

It wasn't the assassination attempt that finally derailed Operation Buttercup - it was Saint-Just's dispatch boat with a ceasefire offer that arrived at wherever Eighth Fleet was before its planned attack on Lovat. White Haven had to relay that message or he'd be committing a war crime.

I think Hamish's initial worry was more that High Ridge would claim the victory dividend, using it to shape a post-war Manticore more electorally favourable to the 'traditional' opposition parties. At that earlier point, an outright military victory was expected by everyone - even Saint-Just thought his ceasefire offer would be rejected!

There was a delay between the Manticoran courier boat arriving with the news 'Cromarty dead, Queen uninjured', and the Havenite courier boat from Saint-Just with his peace talks offer.

White Haven could easily have departed from Lovat after receiving the update about the assassination, and arrived in Lovat before the peace talk offer arrived. It took far less time for the assassination attempt to reach Manticore and then be forwarded to all fleet commanders, than it could possibly have taken to reach Saint-Just for the one-way Grayson>Haven route thanks to the Manticore<>Trevor Star junction.

Somtaaw wrote:

munroburton wrote:It wasn't the assassination attempt that finally derailed Operation Buttercup - it was Saint-Just's dispatch boat with a ceasefire offer that arrived at wherever Eighth Fleet was before its planned attack on Lovat. White Haven had to relay that message or he'd be committing a war crime.

I think Hamish's initial worry was more that High Ridge would claim the victory dividend, using it to shape a post-war Manticore more electorally favourable to the 'traditional' opposition parties. At that earlier point, an outright military victory was expected by everyone - even Saint-Just thought his ceasefire offer would be rejected!

There was a delay between the Manticoran courier boat arriving with the news 'Cromarty dead, Queen uninjured', and the Havenite courier boat from Saint-Just with his peace talks offer.

White Haven could easily have departed from Lovat after receiving the update about the assassination, and arrived in Lovat before the peace talk offer arrived. It took far less time for the assassination attempt to reach Manticore and then be forwarded to all fleet commanders, than it could possibly have taken to reach Saint-Just for the one-way Grayson>Haven route thanks to the Manticore<>Trevor Star junction.

The point I tried to make is, Hamish thought he had all the time in the universe to sort Haven out. He wasn't going to rush into a situation where his forces would essentially be exterminating Havenite personnel without authorisation. That's veering into grounds of war crime charges.

Remember that Hamish is also Willie Alexander's brother. The assassination was going to destabilise Manticoran politics sufficiently that Willie becoming Prime Minister was a difficult enough task without his brother becoming a rogue warlord.

He held fast, lest further action deliver the Star Kingdom into High Ridge's hands. As it happened, Elizabeth blew that one anyway, but Hamish was probably trying to avoid inflamming the SKM's domestic political situation by blowing through Lovat and Haven immediately without orders and ahead of schedule. Don't forget that the Cromarty Government diligently briefed all the opposition leaders fully - they were as informed of White Haven's plans as the Queen was!