Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

Randomiser wrote:[snip]

Peter2 the EoC can't start a whispering campaign about Merlin being a Seijin because the inner circle decided long ago that they weren't going to lie to people. Especially not publicly and especially not in a way that confirms the existing world-view. Seijin as popularly understood simply don't exist which is why Merlin never claims to be one.

Oh, I fully agree that it wouldn't be entirely ethical, but they've already accepted the principle that "In war, if you're not cheating, you're not trying hard enough." By its very nature, there's never anything official about a whispering campaign. Besides, the end message, that the CoGA has become corrupt and should lose its mandate until it is cleansed, is unquestionably true. Treat it as a semi-truthful seditious rumour (to take an idea from Murray Leinster )
.

XofDallas wrote:SNIP

But I do believe whatever the Church tries to do to the current Prodigal Lass prisoners is going to be the touchstone for whatever happens. And I also believe something will happen before the Charisan army gets through Rychtyr's men.

One delightful thought, though. If it does happen, the issue of Silkiah and the Silkiah Canal will pretty much resolve itself, leaving Charis in a much more robust logistical situation, and the Church in a far more precarious one.

Think on it. The Church's supplies then must come from Harchong, the Border States (already having their own problems, and soon to have more), or South Harchong (the Gulf of Dohlar is huge, so materials will make it across the gulf to the Temple Lands, but the Church's ability to set up convoys for large shipments of supplies from South Harchong would be severely dimished if Dohlar and its Navy go over to Charis).

How about we look at it the other way round... Silkiah resolves the Dohlaran situation. Picture this... Ironclads, towing barges filled with mounted infantry come puffing out of Port Salthar.
This would finish Dohlar. Gorath would be gone in a 5-day. The King flees. His Council would sue for peace but they can't get a quorum.
Richter's in even deeper trouble with his southern supply route cut. But he knows Charis won't harm his soldiers if he surrenders. Father Metzlyr tells him to do what he knows is best for his country, goes into his room. A single shot...

Thirsk and Ahlverez lead the government.

An EOC force drives up the Sabana river to cut the Bedard and Holy Langhorne canals.

Just sayin'...

Not sure if it is indeed a spoiler, but Warning Spoiler, Will Robinson!

EdThomas wrote:How about we look at it the other way round... Silkiah resolves the Dohlaran situation. Picture this... Ironclads, towing barges filled with mounted infantry come puffing out of Port Salthar.
This would finish Dohlar. Gorath would be gone in a 5-day. The King flees. His Council would sue for peace but they can't get a quorum.
Richter's in even deeper trouble with his southern supply route cut. But he knows Charis won't harm his soldiers if he surrenders. Father Metzlyr tells him to do what he knows is best for his country, goes into his room. A single shot...

Thirsk and Ahlverez lead the government.

An EOC force drives up the Sabana river to cut the Bedard and Holy Langhorne canals.

Just sayin'...

Silkiah is indeed the key to Dohlar. Remind me again where that last 50,000 troop convoy leaving Port Royal was heading in LaMA? Oh, that's right! We don't know. Also, we haven't heard anything from Jahras island since LaMA. In all likelihood those troops could have gone to Siddar City with the rest of the IEF troops used to hammer the Army of the Sylmahn and the Army of Glacierheart. I suspect that they went to the Gulf of Jahras.

The accident at Delthak probably delayed deploying the river class ships needed to make taking Silkiah worthwhile. Once the King Haraald's are in the Gulf of Dohlar, the forces in the Gulf of Jahras take the Silkiah Canal. All the new rivers will be armed with the same 6" RBLs as the city class ships to hammer coastal defenses.

Most importantly, we have Hector in theater to give another Inner Circle member to facilitate coordinating taking the Silkiah Canal undamaged. I figure between Hector, Nimue and Merlin they can attack simultaneously in enough key locations along the entire canal to prevent any serious damage to the locks. Once the Salthar-Silkiah Canal is secured, the Duke of Darcos can present the Grand Duke of Silkiah with the offer to protect the canal from harm, build an expanded canal between Silkiah Bay and Salthar bay and pay market rates for passage along any of Silkiah's canals. So, please send word to those manning the northern leg of the Silkiah canal to refrain from destroying it. That would only delay Silkiah getting its passage fees.

All in all I think that is the way things will work out. So by the time the KH VIIs arrive in Gorath Bay, Dohlar will face an invasion force threatening from the South-East, Hanth from the North-East and the biggest ironclad warships ever seen on the oceans of Safehold prepared to level any and all Dohlaran port cities. Given that menu of options Charis will have to chastise Dohlar with, whatever Sarmouth offers Dohlar simply cannot be refused.

XofDallas wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:I'm more interested in the potential fallout from another area. In a conversation with Rayno, Clyntahn expressed displeasure at an apparent growing relationship between Thirsk and Sir Rainos Ahlvarez.


We haven't seen any actual contact between them in the books thus far, but once there is the results might be fascinating. A (possibly unspoken) agreement that many things would be better if there weren't Inquisitors looking over everyone's shoulders might bear interesting fruit. (And I wonder when we might see folks outside of the Empire of Charis and its ally Siddarmark deciding that the only good Inquisitor is a dead one.)

I'd love to see Thirsk and Ahlverez get together - perhaps with their Intendants. Problem is, they'd probably be arrested the same night for conspiracy.

Arrested by whom, and why?

If there has been actual contact between them outside of formal council meetings, we can assume Bishop Maik knows about it, and Ahlvarez's Intendant certainly will.

The one who might have an issue would be Kharmych, but I think he can't quite arrest Thirsk and Ahlvarez simply for talking to each other, even if he'd like to. He'd have to remove and arrest Maik as well, but what does he use as justification? The idea that an Auxiliary Bishop of the Inquisition who is effectively Intendant for the Dohloran Navy might be conspiring against Clyntahn opens a really big crack in the Inquisition's facade. Kharmych may have his suspicions about the level of Maik's commitment, but Maik has been very careful to toe the line (and see that Thirsk toes the line). He's been doing a good job of shielding Thirsk, but can do so only so long as he remains in place. If Thirsk and Ahlvarez have met, it was likely with Maik present, and he can report that he was there, that it made sense for the commander of the Dohloran Navy, and the commander of the Dohloran Army contingent of the Army of Justice to have common interest and reason to talk , and nothing was said, let alone done, that could be construed as disloyalty.

Kharmych wants Ahlvarez's head for withdrawing what he could and retreating after the Army of Justice was effectively destroyed, and he wants the head of Ahlvarez's Intendant for signing off on it instead of requiring Ahlvarez to stand and die, but there's a difference for executing a member of the Inquisition for failure when the command he is attached to loses to Charis in combat, and arresting the Intendant of the only military forces loyal to Mother Church that have had any sort of recent success.

Should Clyntahn decide the time is right to kill Thirsk, I'd say Maik's days are numbered because of guilt by association, but it hasn't reached that point yet.
_______
Dennis

PeterZ wrote:Not sure if it is indeed a spoiler, but Warning Spoiler, Will Robinson!

EdThomas wrote:How about we look at it the other way round... Silkiah resolves the Dohlaran situation. Picture this... Ironclads, towing barges filled with mounted infantry come puffing out of Port Salthar.
This would finish Dohlar. Gorath would be gone in a 5-day. The King flees. His Council would sue for peace but they can't get a quorum.
Richter's in even deeper trouble with his southern supply route cut. But he knows Charis won't harm his soldiers if he surrenders. Father Metzlyr tells him to do what he knows is best for his country, goes into his room. A single shot...

Thirsk and Ahlverez lead the government.

An EOC force drives up the Sabana river to cut the Bedard and Holy Langhorne canals.

Just sayin'...

Silkiah is indeed the key to Dohlar. Remind me again where that last 50,000 troop convoy leaving Port Royal was heading in LaMA? Oh, that's right! We don't know. Also, we haven't heard anything from Jahras island since LaMA. In all likelihood those troops could have gone to Siddar City with the rest of the IEF troops used to hammer the Army of the Sylmahn and the Army of Glacierheart. I suspect that they went to the Gulf of Jahras.

The accident at Delthak probably delayed deploying the river class ships needed to make taking Silkiah worthwhile. Once the King Haraald's are in the Gulf of Dohlar, the forces in the Gulf of Jahras take the Silkiah Canal. All the new rivers will be armed with the same 6" RBLs as the city class ships to hammer coastal defenses.

Most importantly, we have Hector in theater to give another Inner Circle member to facilitate coordinating taking the Silkiah Canal undamaged. I figure between Hector, Nimue and Merlin they can attack simultaneously in enough key locations along the entire canal to prevent any serious damage to the locks. Once the Salthar-Silkiah Canal is secured, the Duke of Darcos can present the Grand Duke of Silkiah with the offer to protect the canal from harm, build an expanded canal between Silkiah Bay and Salthar bay and pay market rates for passage along any of Silkiah's canals. So, please send word to those manning the northern leg of the Silkiah canal to refrain from destroying it. That would only delay Silkiah getting its passage fees.

All in all I think that is the way things will work out. So by the time the KH VIIs arrive in Gorath Bay, Dohlar will face an invasion force threatening from the South-East, Hanth from the North-East and the biggest ironclad warships ever seen on the oceans of Safehold prepared to level any and all Dohlaran port cities. Given that menu of options Charis will have to chastise Dohlar with, whatever Sarmouth offers Dohlar simply cannot be refused.

PeterZ...

In reading your post here, I am reminded of a line from Ender's Game: "Remember Ender, the enemy's gate is down."

Let's see what the grand alliance currently has in place:
- Naval forces based at Claw Island and pretty much running rampant in the Gulf of Dohlar, with (per textev) Haaralds inbound as soon as the foundry damage is made good and the guns can be proofed again.
- Naval forces / privateers pouncing on any commerce in the North Harchong provinces of Tiegelkamp, Boiiieau, and Cheshire.
- Naval forces based at Howard Island and tearing through the Gulf of Jahras.
- The ground attack from Thesmar up the Seridahn river.
- Siddarmarkan forces "cleaning up" the South March east of the Taigan River.
- Combined Charisian and Siddarmarkan forces systematically wiping out the Temples armies in Shiloh, Glaierheart, and Cliff Peak.
- Combined Charisian and Siddarmarkan forces now west of the Ice Ash Mountains and into New Northland / Tarikah provinces as far east as Five Forks.

Arrayed against these forces, we have the Harchongians, spread out in 14 camps all along the Holy Langhorne Canal, with some likely to be detached to form a "southern force" and a clear picture in their heads that the only direction they'll be going is east...

What do I derive from all that? Where do I see the opportunity to do potentially terminal damage with a force of 50,000, arriving in theater in the Spring??? How can the great celery chomper bring things to a grand close in one fell swoop and actually align the storyline with the notional cover picture that we've all seen (by now)?

No, PeterZ, I don't see the new force of 50,000 ending up in Silkiah Bay and driving Dohlar out of the war. I see the new force of 50,000, with attending River Class ironclads, driving right up Hsing-Wu's Passage, right into Temple Bay, and putting ashore at Port Harbor, then driving directly at the Temple.

From the textev, I know that there ARE temple guard forces in the region, under the Inquisition's command and control - but there ain't 50,000 of them. And the nearest other field forces are well south and east of Lake Pei.

No, my friend. I don't see a slow, slogging, slugging match (like the alliteration??). I see a coup-de-main.

But - of course - that's only a guess!

There are already city class and first gen rivers wreaking havoc in the passage. The next gen rivers have to go somewhere. Also, keep in mind that Green Valley has significant numbers of Siddermarkians to facilitate troops hopping on barges and hitting Zion. Getting Siddermakuan troops to Silkiah is a tougher proposition.

Pardon me if I think you are off the mark.

Randomiser wrote:The thing about the Inquisition in Dohlar is that 'the Emperor has no clothes'. They can only do anything as long as the Dohlaran military let them do it. There is no way there are enough Temple Guardsmen down there to stand up any sizeable section if the Dohlaran military. The Inquisition's power is based on fear and the habit of obedience. "All it takes to stand them off is for the navy to say "They're our people, you're not having them. (Come and take them if you dare!)' And the army to say 'Sorry, Inquisition, you are on your own!" Well that and the determination to follow through and deal with the long term consequences.

Peter2 the EoC can't start a whispering campaign about Merlin being a Seijin because the inner circle decided long ago that they weren't going to lie to people. Especially not publicly and especially not in a way that confirms the existing world-view. Seijin as popularly understood simply don't exist which is why Merlin never claims to be one.

By the standards of Safehold, Merlin is a seijin even if he doesn't claim to be one.

There can't be a whole lot left of the Dohlaran Army in and around Gorath. What there is that is not still working up has been sent forward to Rychtyr. I would suspect that the bulk of muscle in and around Gorath would be the sailors and marines from Thirsk's fleet.

Don

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WeberFan wrote:No, PeterZ, I don't see the new force of 50,000 ending up in Silkiah Bay and driving Dohlar out of the war. I see the new force of 50,000, with attending River Class ironclads, driving right up Hsing-Wu's Passage, right into Temple Bay, and putting ashore at Port Harbor, then driving directly at the Temple.

From the textev, I know that there ARE temple guard forces in the region, under the Inquisition's command and control - but there ain't 50,000 of them. And the nearest other field forces are well south and east of Lake Pei.

No, my friend. I don't see a slow, slogging, slugging match (like the alliteration??). I see a coup-de-main.

But - of course - that's only a guess!

We all know that the happy day when the ICN arrives at Port Harbor and starts unloading the troops is inevitable. The question is "Does RFC want to end the series in this book?"

In my opinion, the current story arc has at least two books left. The next one will deal with removing Dohlar from the war - with a lot of help from Thirsk, along with the reclamation of Siddarmark and the spreading knowledge of the atrocities that went on (and may still be going on at the end of the book) in the prison camps.

The book after that - call it "A Tower of Strength" or "While Saints their Watch are Keeping" as possible titles (and I get FULL kudos if one of those ends up being the actual title!) will deal with the conquest of Zion, the infiltration and capture of the Temple, and the fat pig who's masquerading as the Grand Inquisitor figuratively getting an apple stuffed in his mouth and being served for dinner! I expect the coward will probably commit suicide when he hears the door to his suite being opened by the override tool that the invading Charisians are given by the extremely helpful Temple Guard. At least he'll understand how the Wylsynns felt when they knew that death was at the door!

Safehold at large and your average Temple Loyalist in the street isn't yet ready to accept a Charisian invasion of the holiest place on the planet. Currently their reaction would be "The infidels invaded the Temple! Let's get 'em!" Given time for the story to spread of how countless thousands of Siddarmarkans, many who were loyal to the CoGA, were systematically starved, beaten, and murdered in the prison camps, and even the most rabid TL is going to start thinking "If that's true, how can we support the widespread murder of our innocent fellow believers by Mother Church?"

Once the reaction to a Charisian invasion of Zion evolves to "It's about time!" then the moment is ripe to not only cut the head off of the snake, but to get to the Grand Reveal. I still haven't come up with an idea of how RFC will pull that off that will work - my best bet is large holograms of Scheuler appearing over every large city on Safehold explaining Operation Ark, how its purpose was warped into the creation of the CoGA, and that mankind's origins and future lie far away among the stars, where a threat to their very existence still searches to eradicate them. Repeat that message every day for a few weeks, and no amount of screaming from the pulpit by the local clergy will be able to snuff out the doubts and widespread apostasy, especially if the message changes as people's doubts increase.

Perhaps Merlin and Nimue could perform regular flyovers of major cities in the skimmers with all the stealth systems turned off - and broadcast over a loudspeaker that this is an example of the craft that the crew of Operation Ark used to fly across the planet while pretending to be angels. Flip on the floodlights at night and demonstrate the tractor beam to show everyone how the "angels" faked their "divine power."

For my theory to work, there needs to be either a computer personality of Scheuler (or somebody important) in the Temple basement, or possibly a sleeping Archangel. Surviving in cryo that long would be a serious stretch, so I don't expect anyone to appear in person. RFC has emphasized that a personality in a computer like Nahrmahn is at the moment eventually goes insane, so to avoid that it needs to shut down occasionally. That would explain why the CoGA has been allowed to run so far off the rails in the past few centuries - any watchers are literally sleeping.

We also don't know what's on all that storage space in the Key of Schueler. Perhaps the equipment to access the data is in the Temple basement and the holographs explaining Operation Ark etc. already exist.

Let's just hope whatever is hiding in the basement isn't hostile to the goals of the inner circle, and that it doesn't have control of the bombardment system!

One last worry - if the return of the Archangels is managed by the Hamilcar appearing in the skies over Safehold, the good guys need to be in control of the Rakurai so they can blow the mothership to smithereens if they have to. The Hamilcar would provide such an incredible jump start to restoring Terran Federation technology that I really, really, really hope it still exists and that the good guys can get their hands on it!

You may now return to your regularly scheduled discussion of Merlin's conversation with Thirsk...

For the benefit of anyone who isn't paying close attention, this thread is now defunct, since RFC just posted the entire conversation in the "ATST Snippet #1" thread.

We did pretty well in our predictions!

McGuiness wrote:For the benefit of anyone who isn't paying close attention, this thread is now defunct, since RFC just posted the entire conversation in the "ATST Snippet #1" thread.

We did pretty well in our predictions!

Yes! Got it right for once!

<patting self on the back, then turning to the task of making further, completely erroneous, predictions and speculations>