Merlin's Upcoming Conversation with Thirsk

WeberFan wrote:SNIP...

n7axw wrote:Whatever the risk factor of a letter--personally I think it is minimal-- the risk of telling Thirsk the truth would be very high. Accorsing to what textev we have, his faith goes to the bone, putting him in the same category as Gray Harbor and Green Mountain for the same reasons.

Don

Don: You state that (with regard to Thirsk) "his faith goes to the bone..."

I absolutely agree, but would also suggest that the same was also true for all of the members of the Inner Circle. UNTIL there was some sort of defining event - indeed some epiphany - whether internally driven or externally driven. Throughout the series, I've been struck by the events that have forced the various members of the Inner Circle to confront their faith and its implications in the face of the new "heretical" information.

In the same way Sharleyan was forced to confront her faith following the Abbey assassination attempt... In the same way that Iris was forced to confront her faith when faced with Hektor's impending death... In the same way that Yairley was forced to confront his faith, not out of the desperate scenarios confronting Sharleyan or Iris but out of his love of Charis and his King... And the list goes on and on. In fact, the only epiphanous scenarios we don't have any textev about are the ones for the Brethern... Everyone else who has been added to the fold had something...

You both have very good arguments, and frankly, I could go either way with this, but there's one thing that neither of you is taking into account... Thirsk is a military commander of a country with which the EoC and Siddarmark are at WAR!!!

There are no citizens of enemy countries in the inner circle, and certainly no one who is subject to the orders of the Go4 and commands forces actively engaged to kill sailors and soldiers of the EoC. People like that can be snatched away and tortured, and verification that Merlin is a demon who uses technology reserved for the archangels would be crippling to the cause of the EoC - if anybody on the mainland were likely to actually believe that tired accusation at this point...

We all desperately want Thirsk to sign up with the good guys, then get his fleet to strike its colors before the Cities or the Haarahlds are forced to destroy it, along with the tens of thousands of sailors, marines, officers, etc. who are aboard those floating wooden targets. We want to see him being instrumental in convincing Dohlar to drop out of the Jihad. (After all, Desnair actually has, they just haven't admitted it yet.)

But it's true that Thirsk believes in the CoGA to the bone, although he has some serious personal opposition to its current management. He's a Reformist who would actually feel quite at home attending the CoC instead, although he'd never actually do that. Unfortunately he's a man of unflinching honor, and despite his personal tragedy and the fact that he's been betrayed by the CoGA and the Inquisition, he still feels that he's sworn to his God, his (ideal) version of the CoGA, his King, and his subordinates in the NoG.

At the moment he's probably mad enough to gladly wrap an anchor chain around every member of the Inquisition and the entire Go4 and toss them in the Gulf of Dohlar. But his faith in Mother Church hasn't been destroyed, as we saw so eloquently in his thoughts while the announcement of the "Kidnapping of Irys and Daivyn" was announced. So I tend to agree that even if he defected, he may well fall into the "can't tell them the truth or you'll destroy who they are" category.

Learning that his family is safe will pull him out of his funk and make him care about living again, and since the Inquisition no longer needs him, it's only a matter of time until it shows up at his door to arrest him or visits him in the night and leaves a corpse. So I expect he'll move back to his flagship and probably spend the rest of HFQ keeping safely out of the Inquisition's reach. His crews and his officers love him, and they'd cross the Rubicon by refusing valid orders from the Inquisition to take him into custody. Clyntahn is stupid enough to try it, and at the very least he'd demote Thirsk and put someone else in charge of the last remnants of the NoG, although he could end up with a mutiny on his hands! (Which alas, Thirsk wouldn't condone.)

Of course this only matters in passing, because the Dohlaran fleet will cease to exist soon, since we're FINALLY gonna see the ICN sail into Gorath Bay to pay back good King Ronald for sending the captured Charisian sailors off to Zion to be tortured to death!!! And we only had to wait for FOUR books! (RFC likes to kid me and PeterZ because we've been screaming for this to happen in each of the last 3 books, and he's been kind enough to point out why the ICN can't quite do it yet.) But the impediments are out of the way, the Cities and Haarahlds are already en route or just about to come out of the shipyards, and Gorath's days are numbered...

I was looking forward to some skullduggery from Merlin and Nimue to get Thirsk's family out during the ICN's attack on Gorath, but the Inquisition made that much easier than I expected, and they managed to rescue them before the ICN's version of Manticore's 8th fleet arrives at Dohlar's doorstep. (But I did enjoy the skullduggery!)

So the only question in the looming battle is how many men of the NoG are going to die before Thirsk gets his fleet to strike its colors. Only RFC knows for sure, and he's not telling. (Or snippeting, or having Drak snippet and theoretically we OUGHT to be getting snippets by now, since it's only 3 months until the publication date, although I expect that date will slip from November, dang it!)

My personal opinion? Some of the ideas are getting pretty far afield.

I agree with McGuiness' thoughts, there is no way Merlin or the gang are going to let Thirsk in on Safehold's real history, the advantages the Charisan leaders have in terms of intelligence, communications and technology, etc. That entails waaay too much risk for not enough reward.

With regard to Merlin's ability to prove Thirsk's family is alright, merely bringing along a favorite toy of one of his grandchildren, and a note from one of his children containing a phrase or reference only Thirsk would know from their childhood, would be the way I'd finesse the issue.

They would likely be safe on Claw Island, or on ship back to wherever Sharly is or will be, by the time of this conversation.

As to what Thirsk is going to do? I still think the most likely outcome will be for Merlin/Cayleb/Sharly to just give him his free will back, letting him know it's up to him what to do with it.

I think what Thirsk most likely will do is, first, to plan how he will survive a kidnapping/assassination attempt by the Inquisition, then how he will rescue his men imprisoned on the Prodigal Lass.

My belief then is that he'll do both, using the rest of the Dohlaran navy to prevent the Church from transporting them to Zion, and to free them, thus starting a mutiny.

And if RFC is any fan of history, that mutiny might turn out (at least with respect to Dohlar)to be similar to the one that ultimately completed Germany's collapse that ended World War I.

My own two cents, probably worth that much or a little less. Such fun it is to speculate!

XofDallas wrote:My personal opinion? Some of the ideas are getting pretty far afield.

I agree with McGuiness' thoughts, there is no way Merlin or the gang are going to let Thirsk in on Safehold's real history, the advantages the Charisan leaders have in terms of intelligence, communications and technology, etc. That entails waaay too much risk for not enough reward.

With regard to Merlin's ability to prove Thirsk's family is alright, merely bringing along a favorite toy of one of his grandchildren, and a note from one of his children containing a phrase or reference only Thirsk would know from their childhood, would be the way I'd finesse the issue.

They would likely be safe on Claw Island, or on ship back to wherever Sharly is or will be, by the time of this conversation.

As to what Thirsk is going to do? I still think the most likely outcome will be for Merlin/Cayleb/Sharly to just give him his free will back, letting him know it's up to him what to do with it.

I think what Thirsk most likely will do is, first, to plan how he will survive a kidnapping/assassination attempt by the Inquisition, then how he will rescue his men imprisoned on the Prodigal Lass.

My belief then is that he'll do both, using the rest of the Dohlaran navy to prevent the Church from transporting them to Zion, and to free them, thus starting a mutiny.

And if RFC is any fan of history, that mutiny might turn out (at least with respect to Dohlar)to be similar to the one that ultimately completed Germany's collapse that ended World War I.

My own two cents, probably worth that much or a little less. Such fun it is to speculate!

Good speculation, I think. My point here originally was that although it is true that all of the inner circle had their own clash between their earnestly held belief and the truth, Thirsk's commitment is such that he may well not be able to handle the truth which puts him in the same category as Green Mountain and Gtay Harbor.

The point about not revealing the truth to someone still committed to an enemy country is a good one and is in addition to my point.

Don

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n7axw wrote:Good speculation, I think. My point here originally was that although it is true that all of the inner circle had their own clash between their earnestly held belief and the truth, Thirsk's commitment is such that he may well not be able to handle the truth which puts him in the same category as Green Mountain and Gtay Harbor.

The point about not revealing the truth to someone still committed to an enemy country is a good one and is in addition to my point.

Don
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Yet, just like Gray Harbor Thirsk can be introduced to seijins. I for one would love to see Dialidd Mabb follow up on Merlin's visit. With Mabb as a conduit, Thirsk will think long and hard about doing anything that resembles betrayal.

I suspect that Mabb has built a reputation for visiting punishment on the Inquisition's excesses. He is also the one seijin that most Temple Loyalists would most easily believe is a true seijin. Merlin and all the others act to support the apostasy of the CoC. Mabb strikes at what is becoming a broadly held belief that the Inquisition is indulging in excess. He saves people from that excess. He visits punishment with a razor's precision as opposed to the Inquisitions uncaring sledge hammer.

No one would convey the seijins' understanding of the quandary Thirsk faces better than Mabb. Understanding of the quandary and determination to fix what needs fixing without tossing the baby out with the bathwater. Also, it is not good for Merlin to distill all his anger and desire for violence into one personality. That personality will be more and more defined by death and destruction. Tie Mabb to Thirsk and reconnect that personality to building positive relations with more people.

DEFINITELY... So many possibilities!

And I confess I love reading all of your thoughts, justifications, and hypotheses.

All could be true.

Or none of them.

To paraphrase the old (I think) L'Oreal advertisement... "Only RFC knows for sure..."

Our guesses in these forums are what keeps me interested - I'm always thinking to myself: "Now why did David SAY that?" He's a master of plots within plots. Like peeling back the layers of an onion. So there MUST be a reason for everything he has written. What's he setting us up for? What are we NOT seeing - or what ARE we seeing and not recognizing for what it is?

Perhaps that's what's keeping my anticipation level up so high.

Cheers all!

I have to put myself in the"just tell 'im the families ok" camp. That really isn't much Thirsk can do, except to move aboard ship. I don't understand how he feels any obligation to his king. Oaths go both ways and Rahnald and his Council haven't held up their side at all. Come to think of it, Mother Church hasn't done a lot for him either.

Merlin could offer assistance from the seijin community in protecting Thirsk's men aboard the Prodigal Lass.

Here is what I think will happen to Thursk. His valet will come in and find a note 'gone to be with my family'.

Or Thirsk is ordered to report to Zion by ship and he transports a special ops squad to take over the temple.

Looking at the last two posts. Holding my head in my hands.... Arrrrgh!!!

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:Good speculation, I think. My point here originally was that although it is true that all of the inner circle had their own clash between their earnestly held belief and the truth, Thirsk's commitment is such that he may well not be able to handle the truth which puts him in the same category as Green Mountain and Gtay Harbor.

The point about not revealing the truth to someone still committed to an enemy country is a good one and is in addition to my point.

Don
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Yet, just like Gray Harbor Thirsk can be introduced to seijins. I for one would love to see Dialidd Mabb follow up on Merlin's visit. With Mabb as a conduit, Thirsk will think long and hard about doing anything that resembles betrayal.

I suspect that Mabb has built a reputation for visiting punishment on the Inquisition's excesses. He is also the one seijin that most Temple Loyalists would most easily believe is a true seijin. Merlin and all the others act to support the apostasy of the CoC. Mabb strikes at what is becoming a broadly held belief that the Inquisition is indulging in excess. He saves people from that excess. He visits punishment with a razor's precision as opposed to the Inquisitions uncaring sledge hammer.

No one would convey the seijins' understanding of the quandary Thirsk faces better than Mabb. Understanding of the quandary and determination to fix what needs fixing without tossing the baby out with the bathwater. Also, it is not good for Merlin to distill all his anger and desire for violence into one personality. That personality will be more and more defined by death and destruction. Tie Mabb to Thirsk and reconnect that personality to building positive relations with more people.

I agree. The seijins have been active long enough that now that when a seijin does seijin sorts of things, nobody is surprised. Given what the Temple has been doing, its claim that the seijins are demons would ring hallow for Thirsk, especially once he knows his family is safe.

I don't see any need to introduce Mabb at this point. Due to the fact of his previous encounter with Merlin, Merlin has used his own persona to reintroduce himself to Thirsk, I suspect that he will continue to use the persona in upcoming encounters.

There has been speculation earlier in this thread that Thirsk will use his new freedom to protect the survivors aboard the Prodigal Lass. That does make sense and it will be interesting to see if that is how it goes and how it plays out.

Don

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