Terms of Surrender (for the Mandarins)

Kytheros wrote:
...

And the Classical Greeks ... they'd really only rally together for a clear and unquestionable outsider, be it a threat like the Persians, or an outsider who insulted one or more of them, like Troy.

Kytheros wrote:In the American Civil War, the CSA had a clear and obvious "external" enemy they could point to in the Union and Lincoln and what they said he and his supporters wanted to do to the South. And the average southerner believed it, or mostly did. And, before the secession, there was something of a national identity that got transferred to the Confederacy. There was a unifying concept and ideals for the CSA.
The League points to Manticore, Haven, the GA as a whole, and says, what? These neo-barbs are an existential threat to the League and the League needs to unify and reform itself in order to crush them before they can crush us? Most of the Solly public isn't going to buy that Manticore and Haven, even combined with Beowulf, are seriously capable of threatening the League.

kzt wrote:No, the SL has a generally hated outside entity combined with a traitor. Or can you find a single SL character who wasn't from Beowulf who liked Manties? I don't remember any, and there are a lot who hate them because.

The fact that they don't see them as a threat means they are not going to pay any attention to any "demands" they might put forward. And then what is the SEM going to do when they simply ignore them? Are they going to let them or are they going to do something dramatic?

Kytheros wrote:

You can't really compare the League politically to any modern nation. The League is perhaps more of a loose alliance or confederation of city-states (representing individual systems) than anything else. A citizen of the League thinks of themselves first as a citizen of their homeworld/home system, the League second. Primary loyalties are not to the League.

kzt wrote:

Kytheros wrote:In the American Civil War, the CSA had a clear and obvious "external" enemy they could point to in the Union and Lincoln and what they said he and his supporters wanted to do to the South. And the average southerner believed it, or mostly did. And, before the secession, there was something of a national identity that got transferred to the Confederacy. There was a unifying concept and ideals for the CSA.
The League points to Manticore, Haven, the GA as a whole, and says, what? These neo-barbs are an existential threat to the League and the League needs to unify and reform itself in order to crush them before they can crush us? Most of the Solly public isn't going to buy that Manticore and Haven, even combined with Beowulf, are seriously capable of threatening the League.

No, the SL has a generally hated outside entity combined with a traitor. Or can you find a single SL character who wasn't from Beowulf who liked Manties? I don't remember any, and there are a lot who hate them because.

The fact that they don't see them as a threat means they are not going to pay any attention to any "demands" they might put forward. And then what is the SEM going to do when they simply ignore them? Are they going to let them or are they going to do something dramatic?

Erls wrote:Just finished re-reading ART, and something towards the end caught my attention. It was the discussion of the Mandarins post-Kingsford's raiding proposal, where they discussed the possibility of starting back-burner diplomatic talks with the GA to keep options open as they had begun to realize how screwed they were. My question is two fold - (1) would the GA seriously listen; and (2) what would their demands be? My stab at what the GA would demand:

Non-negotiable:
1- A full and complete apology and acceptance of fault for New Tuscany, Spindle, Manticore II, and Beowulf (Tsang).
2- A full and complete apology to all worlds under or previously under OFS oversight, including the publishing of records of what OFS did on each protectorate and trials for all living OFS governors, transstellar officials, and military officers who perpetuated atrocities (tried before a neutral court made up of GA appointees, an Andermani appointee, a Maya appointee, and former protectorate appointees). The disbandment of OFS and the turning over of all transtellar property (paid for at a steep discount over a couple decades via the new owners), with joint observers (including Solly officials in a minority role) to oversee the creation of new planetary constitutions. The SL will pay all costs in helping former protectorates undo the damage done.
3- A re-affirmation of the right to secede enshrined in the SL constitution. In fact, a complete re-affirmation of the basic SL constitution as written and not as practiced.
4- Third party investigations into SL and transtellar corruption made up in equal parts of 1/4 Core World appointees, 1/3 former Protectorate/Now Member appointees, 1/4 GA appointees, and 1/4 Protectorate appointees.

Negotiable:
1- Complete re-opening of the Wormholes taken or closed by the GA
2- Complete resumption of trade, including a potential reduction of junction fees as an incentive

Weird Harold wrote:

BobG wrote:It seems to me that the Mandarins saying "We're sorry, our Navy was tricked by the Evil Mesans, let's fight them together instead of fighting each other" would be one approach by them to get out of this mess - but they seem very unwilling to take that approach.

Probably because the MAlign has (or can easily fake) blackmail material that will get them lynched a lot faster than some Neobarbs destroying the League.

Kytheros wrote:There are four fundamental points on which any comparison of the League's and pre-WW2 USA's situations collapse.
First, the relative tech imbalance. Oh, sure, the USA was a tech disadvantage in a lot of ways, but the differences were of degree, rather than kind - most of the tech differences were relatively incremental. They were at a point where quantity has a quality - they were close enough in quality that their massive advantage in quantity could and did overwhelm qualitative disadvantages. The SLN is years, if not decades, away from closing the technological gap to where their quantitative advantages can overcome their qualitative disadvantages. Even after that tech gap is closed enough, it's still another few years minimum to design and then build the first units utilizing that technology.
Second, the United States was never truly in serious danger of a major attack or invasion - it was too difficult for Japan or Germany to project more force than light raiding forces with limited time on station before needing to head home. And the US's industry was not seriously threatened. The GA can get to anywhere in the League it wants to get in whatever force it wants to send without any difficulties whatsoever.
Third, the United States was a unified nation-state, with a national identity, and a strong central government that had plenty of ability to raise funds. The League is not a nation, it is not united, its citizens identify with their home system/system of residence, and it does not have a strong central government. The League is in serious danger of fracturing and collapsing without anyone from the outside trying to make that happen, and both the MAlign and the GA are going to be putting a lot of effort into breaking up the League.
Fourth, the United States could send news, information, etc, anywhere within an extremely short period of time, and the information loop wasn't much longer - even for hardcopy documentation. The League takes weeks to months for one-way information travel, and the only shortcuts are the wormholes, which Laocoon II will have almost entirely closed off. Sol could get swallowed by a space monster tomorrow, and it would take months for the rest of the League to find out about it.




You can't really compare the League politically to any modern nation. The League is perhaps more of a loose alliance or confederation of city-states (representing individual systems) than anything else. A citizen of the League thinks of themselves first as a citizen of their homeworld/home system, the League second. Primary loyalties are not to the League.

“That’s becoming a steadily more likely scenario,” he said grimly. “And that’s hard.” He shook his head, his expression sad. “I’ve known the League was rotten at the core for almost my entire life, but it was still the Solarian League. It was still the heir of all Mankind’s greatness, and for all its warts, it was still my star nation. And now this.” He shook his head again. “Now it looks like I'm going to be directly party to the actions which bring the whole tottering edifice crashing down. And I can’t be sure we’re not doing exactly what those Mesan bastards want us to be doing.”
(Italics my own)

Loren Pechtel wrote:

HB of CJ wrote:Sosss, will the Manties and the GA understand that they are tickling the hind leg of that very big and very powerful 800 pound Gorilla? If the GA goes for a quick victory, it will quickly become neither victory nor quick. The GA can not physically destroy the entire Sollie League. Not by a factor of at least 10. Maybe even more.

The GA knows they've kicked the 1000# gorilla.

You're wrong about the battle, though--the SLN doesn't have anything that wouldn't be a piece of cake for the GA to defeat. The only problem is the GA can't occupy the territory.

What if the Sollies or the Mandarins tell the GA to pound sand? What then? Both sides know that in 3 to 5 years the Sollie fleets will pound out and roll over ANY possible GA fleet. This goes beyond political. It becomes industrial potential. Again folks, there is no GA victory here. History proves victory goes to the "Biggest Battalions".

Disagree--even 5 years is being quite optimistic assuming the GA isn't going around punching out your military infrastructure. In practice they're going to have to build a hidden shipyard before they can even hope to build a fleet.

Soss, what to do? Wage peace. The GA needs to huff and puff and try to get the Mandarins AND the Sollie League to lay off. The problem is can the GA get the Sollies to NOT consider just rebuilding their huge fleet potential and then much later, (years) just turning on the GA? That is the problem. Long term Galactic Peace may not be a coming.

The SLN can't lay off. Anything less than a resounding victory causes them to lose control of an awful lot of systems they are desperate to hold on to.

Rincewind wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:quote="BobG"]It seems to me that the Mandarins saying "We're sorry, our Navy was tricked by the Evil Mesans, let's fight them together instead of fighting each other" would be one approach by them to get out of this mess - but they seem very unwilling to take that approach.

Probably because the MAlign has (or can easily fake) blackmail material that will get them lynched a lot faster than some Neobarbs destroying the League.[/quote]

It's not just the MAlign & they would not have to fake it. In A Rising Thunder Rajampet clearly had enough on most, if not all of the Mandarins to get them sent away for a very long time, or even lynched. So the MAlign would not even have to go looking for it, they could find it in Rajampet's files.[/quote]