The fate of Carmichael

Weird Harold wrote:

cthia wrote:Ahem, now that you've turned on the front burner, as is the case of the US, wouldn't it be the policy of Manticore to have Manticoran protection on planet to protect its embassy? Wouldn't a Manticoran embassy be considered Manticoran soil? Hence, the Manticoran - and in the case of Beowulf, Beowulfan - flags flying?

Now that Haven is an ally, there's a significant RH Army presence if From the Highlands can be believed. There's no mention of demonstrations at the Havenite embassy or any sort of details about Havenite contingency plans; Perhaps the Havenite embassy will wind up rescuing both Manticore's and Beowulf's embassies when things get worse.

Good points Harold. And wouldn't that be a cool scene - to witness Havenite ground forces at work for Manticoran good? Me hopes are riding high now. Doh!

Anyway, thanks for pointing that out. I never considered it. In considering it now though, as I recall, Solarian sentiment was never poisoned against the Havenites. In fact they had a somewhat working relationship, albeit clandestine.

The immediate danger seems to be in the midst of the demonstrators who are the average misguided Solarian Jen&Joe on the street - who've been intentionally inveigled by their own government's instigators feeding them raw lies specifically regarding Manticoran deceit and duplicity. Which doesn't imply that the inner onion of desperate League apparatchiks won't use that festering mob to indirectly and covertly shed Manty blood.

I don't recall the League government pointing the finger at the Havenites (correct me if I'm wrong here) and rightfully so. They wouldn't want to call it to their misinformed citizens' attention that there's another player to be considered, which should - to any other dimwits besides the hopelessly jaded and retarded Solarian citizens - infer that the probability of both nations being wrong about Mesan duplicity is much lower. So it would behoove the League to try and keep Haven out of it and keep the attention pointed exclusively in the SEM's direction. Besides, the fuel of eons of anti-Manticoran sentiment lights more easily. It's like kindling that has become a natural and plentiful Solarian resource.

Moreover, I don't think the average Solarian citizen or even the League government inherently despises that particular group of neobarbs as they do all things Manticoran - due in part to a long festering jealousy of the SEM's affluence and control of the junctions, etc. So, I don't expect the barbarians at the Manty gate to target the Havenite embassy. Besides, it seems that the League is still reeling from the Havenite alliance with the SEM and are still digesting it. I seem to recall a line that implies a Solarian belief that Pritchart is being misled.

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Jonathan_S wrote:

kzt wrote:No, the SL was the largest trading partner of Manticore. They have the vast majority of planets with productive industrial economies, which is who conducts extensive financial transactions and significant trade.

Further, due to the structure of the SL Manticore's relations with the member systems matters a lot.

It's possible that Manticore actually maintains 2000+ embassies, so they have one with all the important SL worlds, but instead I suspect they mostly do this via their embassy at New Chicago. Which means the people to do this work at the New Chicago embassy.

Maybe. OTOH for much of the League it's a shorter transit to Manticore itself than it is to Sol - so things like trade negotiations might more easily be done by that world's embassy on Manticore rather than embassy to embassy in New Chicago. The communication loops to both party's governments are shorter. (Amusingly for much of the League the fastest way to send a delegation or instructions to their embassy or trade delegation in New Chicago is probably by way of the wormhole network and Beowulf.)

Now that's not true for the very closest of the Core worlds, and also there might be instances of multi-lateral talks where it makes sense to do them between everyone's people already in New Chicago; so this isn't to say that the embassy on Earth didn't have a wider responsibility in handling diplomacy with the various sovereign League worlds; just pointing out that it may not always be the primary point on contact.

I think kzt might be on to something here. With so many worlds to manage in a diplomatic fashion, with a centrally located embassy structure, wouldn't that better ensure that the many hands would more likely know what the other hands are doing? Sort of like an Embassy CIA? And the embassy at Old Chicago would certainly have its hands more accurately on the hearts of Solarian sentiment and better able to analyze information?

Moreover, would Manticore want the influx of so much information overkill from the embassies of 2000+ worlds shutting down their internet? Someone has to be responsible for sorting through and cross referencing the crud. It's their job. And, I think a central location could more realistically achieve that goal. And I think the embassy capital would be located on Old Earth - which houses the League's civilian and military command structure.

Duckk wrote:Exactly. There's some conflation going on here between the embassy and the ambassador.

Admiral Courvoisier's delegation was specifically to negotiate with Grayson and get them into the alliance. Even then, it constituted a number of people (IIRC it was a couple dozen), and did not include the embassy staff that was already present under Ambassador Langtry. And given that Langtry mentions evacuating "as many non-combatants and dependents as possible" on the Manticoran freighters, it must be a sizable one.

Likewise, Honor's negotiation with Haven was to reopen diplomatic ties. In other words, there was no embassy there, and thus no embassy staff.

My original post, which fears for Carmichael's welfare, is probably responsible for the conflation because I later moved to include the Embassy. Frankly, I think the two are naturally connected at the hip. If Carmichael is ordered home, I'd naturally think the Embassy would be closed. Of course, as someone has already penned, perhaps all nonessential personnel has long been gone. In fact, it occurs to me that Carmichael would not be recalled unless the remaining entourage goes with. Yet not necessarily vice versa.

Also, at least partly responsible for my confusion at least, is the book (Carmichael) reminisces on his safety and there's no mention of the safety of his contingency - whom, OBVIOUSLY, are in danger as well - if the pitchfork carrying barbarians at the gate are an accurate indication. I'm willing to bet they are out for Manty blood and could care less if that blood type is A, B or C for Carmichael.

Which begs the question of whether we as readers can indeed assume that Carmichael's entire contingency has also relocated behind the relative safety within Beowulf's embassy walls. Or since they haven't been mentioned is, OTOH, explained by this insightful post and its owner...

Adeon Hawkwood wrote:Something worth considering, is that while Manticore hasn't recalled Carmichael himself, there's no textev regarding the embassy. I think it's reasonable to assume that Manticore has probably already evacuated dependents and non-essential personnel from the embassy. In fact they may have gone so far as to shut-down the embassy itself, just leaving a minimal support staff for Carmichael.

Duckk wrote:Nations don't recall ambassadors unless things get really serious. It doesn't have any significant practical effect (assuming the rest of the embassy remains open), but it does have major political meaning. It's effectively saying, "we think talking to you right now is a waste of time."

As it applies to this particular situation, leaving Carmichael on Sol is an indication that Manticore is willing to negotiate up to the last possible minute. They're leaving the door open for any last minute outbreak of sanity on the Sollies' part.

May we assume that you do think that things are serious at the moment? Wormholes have been closed and seized. Two major Solarian fleets have been destroyed. A new alliance has been formed. Beowulf has defected and "become traitors" and the League has ignored every single attempt at diplomacy. And the latest, a dangerous riot has obviously been intentionally incited as a result of heinous lies spun, with no attempt to manage.

If the League were indeed to have a last minute reasonable epiphany, would the lack of an on planet liaison hinder them from acting on it, or realistically impede the possibility of it? Just pull them out, point to the barbarians at the embassy gates and inform the proper Solarian imbeciles that the evacuation is solely out of concern for "our foreign nationals."

The League would still have access to the inner communication loop via dispatch boats, no?

And why isn't a partial evacuation also a negative message to the brain dead League? I can only hope to imagine how that's being spun in the media.

"GUILT - SOME OF THE MURDERERS HAVE HIT & RUN!"

- which effectively, could dump still more heat on Carmichael.

kzt wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Maybe. OTOH for much of the League it's a shorter transit to Manticore itself than it is to Sol - so things like trade negotiations might more easily be done by that world's embassy on Manticore rather than embassy to embassy in New Chicago. The communication loops to both party's governments are shorter. (Amusingly for much of the League the fastest way to send a delegation or instructions to their embassy or trade delegation in New Chicago is probably by way of the wormhole network and Beowulf.)

There is no SL embassy on Manticore. There were some SL members IIRC, but not a SL one.

Considering it, I'm surprised that the League has embassies anywhere. Battle Fleet operated as their embassy and OFS was their fleet of assistants.

Right or wrong, my off the cuff informed guess would be more 'par for the arrogant Solarian course.' Why would the invincible League who is in the habit of bending entire governments to their will think that they need an embassy. Embassies orchestrate diplomacy. Diplomacy is give on one side of the coin and take on the other. The League operates with a one-sided coin.

War is the continuation of diplomacy by non diplomatic means. The deeply ingrained fear of the almighty gorilla is diplomacy by psychological means. Most planets operate on a "What would the League think or want" model. You have to give it to them, their heyday may be over now, but the League ruled by total fear, no one wanted to step on the toes of the 800 lb bully of a gorilla with its linchpins of Obedient Frothing Sheetheads sewing legendary seeds of horror.

Don't fall prey to more underestimating of Solarian arrogance...

"We don't need embassies. We tell them what we want. We get. They don't give, we turn the screws and take. Make them come to us with any and all diplomatic needs."

In fact, the League probably viewed embassies as a sign of weakness. Which is probably another reason they never got around to ratifying that interstellar convention to repatriate ambassadors. They didn't have any themselves to worry about. That, my friend, is your freshman year object lesson of what it is and how to wield absolute power.

When it comes to arrogance, Solarians mainline it and get timely booster shots. With OFS giving them regular blood transfusions!

Off the cuff that is.

I think people overestimate the importance of placing embassies. It's not as if the United Kingdom has an embassy in each and every 50 states in the US. What the UK does have is a handful of consulate offices (which are different than embassies) at key population centers such that a UK citizen doesn't have to travel far to reach one. Likewise, I'm sure Manticore has consulate offices at sector capitals and other critical nodes, but isn't on literally every planet in the League.

Duckk wrote:I think people overestimate the importance of placing embassies. It's not as if the United Kingdom has an embassy in each and every 50 states in the US. What the UK does have is a handful of consulate offices (which are different than embassies) at key population centers such that a UK citizen doesn't have to travel far to reach one. Likewise, I'm sure Manticore has consulate offices at sector capitals and other critical nodes, but isn't on literally every planet in the League.

There aren't any sector capitals in the main part of the SL. All 1500 or whatever systems are all separate, you only have an overall organization in the verge. At least that is what we've been told...

An admittedly poor choice of words on my part, in an attempt at brevity. We do know, for example, that the banking institutions of the League have significant presence at major nodes that act as clearinghouses for the interstellar market. Those nodes may be chosen because they are proximate to a wormhole, are conveniently located near industrial or commercial systems, confluence of grav waves, and so forth. The same kind of logic applies to things like naval bases, merchant transshipment points, etc.

Likewise, the very things that make such a system attractive for those purposes, makes them a useful place to plunk down a consulate. Going back to my previous example, the UK maintains consulates in places such as Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Chicago, because they're major transportation hubs. They don't place consulates in any old place like Cheyenne, Wyoming because there's little to justify the need.

cthia wrote:Considering it, I'm surprised that the League has embassies anywhere. Battle Fleet operated as their embassy and OFS was their fleet of assistants.

Right or wrong, my off the cuff informed guess would be more 'par for the arrogant Solarian course.' Why would the invincible League who is in the habit of bending entire governments to their will think that they need an embassy. Embassies orchestrate diplomacy. Diplomacy is give on one side of the coin and take on the other. The League operates with a one-sided coin.

I'm not sure the League per se does have embassies anywhere.
Some consulate offices to handle routine trade items, or provide help for members of the various League worlds who may be nearby; maybe.

But an embassy means an Ambassador, who is empowered to act on diplomatic foreign policy. But the League, famously, doesn't really have a foreign policy. Members tend to use their Assembly vetoes to block any such ideas. What's the point of having an embassy if it can't work to implement to support a foreign policy?

Individual worlds may have foreign policy interest that they pursue as individuals (or theoretically in multi-system common trade consortium) - but none are willing to have some League wide policy that might infringe on their own rights to deal with (or ignore) systems outside the League.

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:Considering it, I'm surprised that the League has embassies anywhere. Battle Fleet operated as their embassy and OFS was their fleet of assistants.

Right or wrong, my off the cuff informed guess would be more 'par for the arrogant Solarian course.' Why would the invincible League who is in the habit of bending entire governments to their will think that they need an embassy. Embassies orchestrate diplomacy. Diplomacy is give on one side of the coin and take on the other. The League operates with a one-sided coin.

I'm not sure the League per se does have embassies anywhere.
Some consulate offices to handle routine trade items, or provide help for members of the various League worlds who may be nearby; maybe.

But an embassy means an Ambassador, who is empowered to act on diplomatic foreign policy. But the League, famously, doesn't really have a foreign policy. Members tend to use their Assembly vetoes to block any such ideas. What's the point of having an embassy if it can't work to implement to support a foreign policy?

Individual worlds may have foreign policy interest that they pursue as individuals (or theoretically in multi-system common trade consortium) - but none are willing to have some League wide policy that might infringe on their own rights to deal with (or ignore) systems outside the League.

League Embassies proper, probably not.
But League consulates are probably somewhat more common - or perhaps just someone empowered to assist and act on behalf of League Citizens in need, this is probably usually part of the local OFS office or an office at the main transtellar in residence.
Somewhere like Manticore or Erewhon, on account of being significant wormhole junctions connected to League space, probably actually have some sort of official League Consulate, probably in addition to embassies/consulates from nearby/major League Core Worlds.
I also expect that most the major interstellar financial nodes probably have consulates or embassies with each other.