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The fate of Carmichael

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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by saber964   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:16 pm

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Whose to say that SEM doesn't have contingency plans. What is the ambassador received instructions to go to the Beowulf Delegation and seek temporary shelter. I'm thinking that the Ballroom (Torch) has a few agents in place, along with BCIA. They could have ways into Chicago's old city were Carmichael & Co and could hide for months without being noticed before smuggling them all off world.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by cthia   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:49 pm

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kzt wrote:The embassy isn't one guy, it's a whole bunch of people who support the mission and the ambassador, and their dependents. Keep that in mind when thinking about evacuating.

Forgot to post this in support of your post. Initially I couldn't quite remember the details. Then, one call to my sister and she rattled it off like it was an item on her shopping list. She hates sci-fi but eats history for lunch...

In Cambodia, the U.S. ambassador and his staff leave Phnom Penh when the U.S. Navy conducts its evacuation effort, Operation Eagle. On April 3, 1975, as the communist Khmer Rouge forces closed in for the final assault on the capital city, U.S. forces were put on alert for the impending embassy evacuation. An 11-man Marine element flew into the city to prepare for the arrival of the U.S. evacuation helicopters. On April 10, U.S. Ambassador Gunther Dean asked Washington that the evacuation begin no later than April 12.

At 8:50 a.m. on April 12, an Aerospace Rescue and Recovery Service HH-53 landed a four-man Air Force combat control team to coordinate the operation. Three minutes later, it guided in a Marine Corps helicopter with the first element of the Marine security force. Marine and Air Force helicopters then carried 276 evacuees–including 82 Americans, 159 Cambodians, and 35 foreign nationals–to the safety of U.S. Navy assault carriers in the Gulf of Thailand. By 10 a.m., the Marine contingency force, the advance 11-man element, and the combat control team had been evacuated without any casualties.

On April 16, the Lon Nol government surrendered to the Khmer Rouge, ending five years of war. With the surrender, the victorious Khmer Rouge evacuated Phnom Penh and set about to reorder Cambodian society, which resulted in a killing spree and the notorious “killing fields.” Eventually, hundreds of thousands of Cambodians were murdered or died from exhaustion, hunger, and disease.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-hist ... -evacuated

As your post states, lots of peripherals and incidentals to evacuate.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by cthia   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:55 pm

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saber964 wrote:Whose to say that SEM doesn't have contingency plans. What is the ambassador received instructions to go to the Beowulf Delegation and seek temporary shelter. I'm thinking that the Ballroom (Torch) has a few agents in place, along with BCIA. They could have ways into Chicago's old city were Carmichael & Co and could hide for months without being noticed before smuggling them all off world.

Well, I hope Anton Zilwicki's in on it. Perhaps we'll get that "much bigger hole in the ground" this time that Helen warned us about. :lol:

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Ed130 The Vanguard   » Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:59 am

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cthia wrote:
saber964 wrote:Whose to say that SEM doesn't have contingency plans. What is the ambassador received instructions to go to the Beowulf Delegation and seek temporary shelter. I'm thinking that the Ballroom (Torch) has a few agents in place, along with BCIA. They could have ways into Chicago's old city were Carmichael & Co and could hide for months without being noticed before smuggling them all off world.

Well, I hope Anton Zilwicki's in on it. Perhaps we'll get that "much bigger hole in the ground" this time that Helen warned us about. :lol:


I rather doubt that, a Green Pines style attack on Chicago or even a deep raid in order to pull out Carmichael would be propaganda gold for the Mandarins. If they were to order the ambassador's arrest a quiet extraction would be the order of things and ultimately be more damaging than a bomb.

"Oh Ambassador Carmichael? The man you whipped Chicago into a frenzy with one of the biggest manhunts in Earth history? He's was deployed to Beowulf last week."

An impotent League is a weak League.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by cthia   » Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:56 am

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cthia wrote:
saber964 wrote:Whose to say that SEM doesn't have contingency plans. What is the ambassador received instructions to go to the Beowulf Delegation and seek temporary shelter. I'm thinking that the Ballroom (Torch) has a few agents in place, along with BCIA. They could have ways into Chicago's old city were Carmichael & Co and could hide for months without being noticed before smuggling them all off world.

Well, I hope Anton Zilwicki's in on it. Perhaps we'll get that "much bigger hole in the ground" this time that Helen warned us about. :lol:
Ed130 The Vanguard wrote:I rather doubt that, a Green Pines style attack on Chicago or even a deep raid in order to pull out Carmichael would be propaganda gold for the Mandarins. If they were to order the ambassador's arrest a quiet extraction would be the order of things and ultimately be more damaging than a bomb.

"Oh Ambassador Carmichael? The man you whipped Chicago into a frenzy with one of the biggest manhunts in Earth history? He's was deployed to Beowulf last week."

An impotent League is a weak League.

Actually, I meant it as a joke. Hence, the giggly face.

Though, you have to admit that it'd really be funny, as a reader, if a monstrous hole is left by Zilwicki and we ended up with a timely accompanying one-liner by Helen...

"Now that is a Zilwicki hole!"

:lol: ... ... :lol: ... ... :lol: (oh make it stop.)

Ahem, now that you've turned on the front burner, as is the case of the US, wouldn't it be the policy of Manticore to have Manticoran protection on planet to protect its embassy? Wouldn't a Manticoran embassy be considered Manticoran soil? Hence, the Manticoran - and in the case of Beowulf, Beowulfan - flags flying?

The rabbit hole that thought leads into is that it wouldn't be an attack on Old Chicago, but a defensive military stance on Manticoran soil (whereupon sits the Manticoran embassy and its flag), no?

I am imagining, also using our own US policy as a schematic, that the onus of the safety of Embassy nationals falls on the shoulders of our own Secretary of State, yet is usually shared by the host country (or in this case planet). And if the host country (planet) isn't willing to provide that protection, then contingencies are emplaced by the foreign nationals to do so on their own.

If Old Chicago really are unwilling or unable to provide that protection... as it seems to be indicated in this passage...
ART Ch. 29

"I know. I was watching you watch it.” She smiled slightly. “Impressive, isn’t it?”

“Not as impressive as the fact that Old Chicago’s highly efficient police force seems somehow totally unable to break up this completely un-authorized and spontaneous demonstration.” Carmichael’s tone was poison dry, and this time Hadley actually chuckled.

“The same thought had occurred to me,” she admitted. “Actually, I’ve been wondering whether or not I should add that to my daily indictment on the Assembly floor. It wouldn’t change anything, of course, but it might make me feel a little better.”

Her expression was almost whimsical, and Carmichael shook his head.

“Forgive me, Madam Delegate, but I don’t see how you’ve stood it so long. At best, the Assembly’s turned into some sort of zoo where tourists come to see the exotic animals. Or maybe the term I really want is the endangered species!”

“Not the most tactful of descriptions, perhaps, but to the point,” she said judiciously. Then she shrugged, and her expression turned more serious. “Actually, it’s not a bad description at all, but, you know, I honestly believed—once, at least—that I might be achieving something worthwhile. Even if it was only to be the voice of the past, a reminder of what the League was once supposed to be. Now”—she stepped past Carmichael to look out his window—“all of that seems as foolish as it was pointless.”

-SNIP-

He stepped up beside her, looking back out the window himself at the screaming mob. They were beginning to throw things at the residence’s ground-floor walls and windows. The security fields were stopping the tide of rocks, eggs, over-ripe vegetables, and occasional old-fashioned molotov cocktails, but the symbolic acts of vandalism seemed to please the crowd. Not as much as the little knots of people who were burning the Manticoran and Beowulf planetary flags and dismembering—or igniting—effigies dressed in what they fondly believed were Manticoran and Beowulfan naval uniforms, though. As Carmichael watched, one flashily dressed, wildly tattooed flag-burner—he looked like one of the millions of longterm unemployed who collected their stipends from the planetary government every month—held onto a burning Manticoran flag just a moment too long. It was impossible to hear his howls, but the way he started leaping about and waving his hand frantically said volumes, the ambassador thought with a certain satisfaction.

“Frankly,” Hadley said, “what astonishes me, even though I ought to know better after all this time, is that anyone would take Education and Information’s word for anything.” She grimaced. “Like I say, I ought to know better. In fact, I do know better. But it still seems so incredibly brainless. It’s like they want to be lied to because it’s so familiar, or because it keeps them in their comfort zone by absolving them of the need to actually think about things. Apparently nobody on Old Terra ever heard that cliché about ‘Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.’”
...then Manticore would be negligent and lacking in failing to provide their own security.

Aren't foreign flags emplaced at embassies to denote foreign soil? How far does the League's unsupport of the interstellar convention to repatriate ambassadors go? I don't get the feeling that they have denied Manticore from its own contingency or responsibility to provide their own security on planet as would 'normally' be allowed (as the passage indicating that the League has never had to deal with this because no one has ever dared attack them - a lack of precedent.)

FYI: A schematic of our Secretary of State's MO to secure US embassies. http://www.state.gov/m/ds/about/overview/c9004.htm

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:37 am

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cthia wrote:Ahem, now that you've turned on the front burner, as is the case of the US, wouldn't it be the policy of Manticore to have Manticoran protection on planet to protect its embassy? Wouldn't a Manticoran embassy be considered Manticoran soil? Hence, the Manticoran - and in the case of Beowulf, Beowulfan - flags flying?


Now that Haven is an ally, there's a significant RH Army presence if From the Highlands can be believed. There's no mention of demonstrations at the Havenite embassy or any sort of details about Havenite contingency plans; Perhaps the Havenite embassy will wind up rescuing both Manticore's and Beowulf's embassies when things get worse.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Somtaaw   » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:09 am

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Carmichael moved into the Beowulf embassy with seemingly zero fuss over moving a large amount of people. And given the mechanics of hyper travel, having large embassies anymore is almost counter-productive, anything you can do with an official ambassador and perhaps a dozen aides is all you need. A few clerks to handle paperwork filing, since that's a little more specialist than generic aide is. Call it no more than two dozen for the official staff of the embassy, that would rise considerably depending on how many brought their families with them.

Although on balance, I could almost see how Carmichael and the rest of the embassy bundled their families off planet before now, certainly by the time Filareta was scheduled to have arrived in Manticore. They may have remained to at least try to inject sense into the League, but they wouldn't be risking their families too, and since that coincidentally also drastically cuts down on the number of evacuee's later, it's a two-fer.


Manticoran ground troops wouldn't really help much, if they have any guards at all, I figure it's in the same minimalist approach to the embassy staff, I'm figuring somewhere between a squad to a platoon (sans heavy weapons) at a maximum. Haven had a much larger one, but they were also hiding special ops types among their embassy so having a much larger official staff helped hide that. Currently the Mandarins are also trying to ooze sympathy that Haven is merely an unwitting dupe in the Manticoran Grand Alliance, so they haven't focused much if any anti-Haven propaganda yet.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Duckk   » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:40 am

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Carmichael moved into the Beowulf embassy with seemingly zero fuss over moving a large amount of people. And given the mechanics of hyper travel, having large embassies anymore is almost counter-productive, anything you can do with an official ambassador and perhaps a dozen aides is all you need. A few clerks to handle paperwork filing, since that's a little more specialist than generic aide is. Call it no more than two dozen for the official staff of the embassy, that would rise considerably depending on how many brought their families with them.


That seems like a non sequitor to me. Today, we can get to nearly any point on the planet in 24 hours, and we have a communications grid that lets us communicate and send data instantaneously. Yet we still have embassies that range in the hundreds of personnel to handle stuff locally. In the Honorverse, where communications lags can be measured in weeks or even months, you don't want to constantly "call home" unless you really need to. Hence, a large team of people for local support.

Additionally, embassies aren't necessarily just the diplomat and his or her aides. Embassies in major countries serve as liaison points for economic, cultural and scientific activities. For something as big and important as the Solarian League, Manticore would have hundreds of personnel operating out of their embassy: media and public relations teams, business liaisons, experts on international law, and more.

That's not to say they haven't shipped all non-essential personnel back to Manticore by the end of ART, but there nominally would be a lot more people operating the embassy.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by npadln   » Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:55 pm

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It seems the crux of the problem as stated here is that having an Ambassador remain in enemy territory past his "intelligence" usefulness, is that he keeps the lines of communication open. But is that really necessary? If the SL wanted to reach out to the GA surely they would find a way. And as far as intelligence gathering isn't it pretty much passive intelligence gathering now; something that could easily be accomplished by someone of less prominence?
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Duckk   » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:05 pm

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Nations don't recall ambassadors unless things get really serious. It doesn't have any significant practical effect (assuming the rest of the embassy remains open), but it does have major political meaning. It's effectively saying, "we think talking to you right now is a waste of time."

As it applies to this particular situation, leaving Carmichael on Sol is an indication that Manticore is willing to negotiate up to the last possible minute. They're leaving the door open for any last minute outbreak of sanity on the Sollies' part.
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