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The fate of Carmichael

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The fate of Carmichael
Post by cthia   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:29 am

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Interesting morsel pilfered from Ch. 29 of ART...
For the moment, Carmichael was relatively safe in a personal sense, here with the Beowulf delegation. That shouldn’t have been a significant consideration, but it was in this case. Under interstellar law as accepted by most star nations, his person was legally sacrosanct, no matter what happened to the relations between his star nation and another. Even in time of war, he was supposed to be returned safely to his government’s jurisdiction, just as any ambassadors to the Star Empire were to be repatriated under similar circumstances.

The Solarian League, however, had never gotten around to ratifying that particular interstellar convention. That hadn’t mattered in the past, since no one had been crazy enough to challenge the League, which meant Old Chicago had never been forced to deal with the problem. It left Carmichael in something of a gray area under the current circumstances, however, and he wasn’t at all sure how Kolokoltsov and his cronies might choose to interpret the law in his own case. That was why he’d moved into the Beowulf residence, which enjoyed extraterritorial status under the Constitution. Assuming anyone was paying attention to the Constitution. On the other hand, if things kept building the way they were, Beowulf wasn’t going to be enjoying any sort of legal status within the Solarian League very much longer.

Anyone other than myself think Manticore should have long ordered Carmichael home? What can be done if he is murdered [via any degree] by the League? Or simply held as a prisoner of a nonexistent war? What can Manticore reasonably do?

This so reminds me of the scene in the movie "300" when King Leonidas killed the messengers. https://youtu.be/514IEcgz1Q8

This is Sparta! err the invincible Solarian League!

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Last edited by cthia on Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Somtaaw   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:41 am

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Honestly, I've been surprised he hasn't been ordered home ever since he gave them the notes just after the Filareta & Tsang he should have left.

He'd done all he really could by that point, and if I'd been Caparelli, or even a senior advisor, I would have been recommending something larger than a DB deliver that data for Carmichael to deliver, and then bring him home.


And after the diaster of Filareta actually crossing the Manticore hyper limit, and firing... de facto state of war with a nation that hadn't signed "Ambassadors are legally off limits to touch", I wouldn't have thought twice about the non-discretionary recall order.


And given how fast, we as the readers, saw at least one Mandarin jumping to "well let's imprison Carmichael on jumped up charges", well.... yeah.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by cthia   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:37 am

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Somtaaw wrote:Honestly, I've been surprised he hasn't been ordered home ever since he gave them the notes just after the Filareta & Tsang he should have left.

He'd done all he really could by that point, and if I'd been Caparelli, or even a senior advisor, I would have been recommending something larger than a DB deliver that data for Carmichael to deliver, and then bring him home.


And after the diaster of Filareta actually crossing the Manticore hyper limit, and firing... de facto state of war with a nation that hadn't signed "Ambassadors are legally off limits to touch", I wouldn't have thought twice about the non-discretionary recall order.


And given how fast, we as the readers, saw at least one Mandarin jumping to "well let's imprison Carmichael on jumped up charges", well.... yeah.

I certainly concur. Yet it is interesting that you think he should have remained throughout Filareta's folly. Knowing so far in advance that he was coming and considering what was planned for him, I think he should have gotten out before the folly. I think he should have been recalled prior to the activation of Laccon.

The shutting of the junctions reminds me of the locking down of sections of a damaged warship during an attack - get out before you're sealed in and the creek rises! The only difference being that instead of a warship being damaged and lower decks flooding, it was the political ship of diplomacy that was severely damaged and the higher decks of diplomacy sinking. Before Manticore began to batten down the hatches with Lacoon (which should have literally telegraphed a military posturing to the arrogant League), Carmichael should have been recalled, IMO.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:06 pm

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cthia wrote: I certainly concur. Yet it is interesting that you think he should have remained throughout Filareta's folly. Knowing so far in advance that he was coming and considering what was planned for him, I think he should have gotten out before the folly. I think he should have been recalled prior to the activation of Laccon.
It certainly increased the risk to Carmichael to not withdraw him when Laacoon was activated.

But his safety isn't (and IMHO shouldn't be) the top priority for Manticore. They're still hoping someone in the League government will come to their senses and choke this off short of a full war. But withdrawing your diplomat is a usual prelude to war - it sends the League exactly the wrong signal to withdraw the embassy and then choke off all trade - it signals that you're no longer willing to negotiate or make peace. Leaving him there lets them attempt to use Laccon as a wake-up call for opening negotiations - not the first step in a full blown war.

At even as late as the arrival of Raging Justice, if Fileretta hadn't been screwed by MALign plots to attack after he'd decided to withdraw having the embassy there to open talks would have increased the chances that the one deescalation would be the start of a peaceful resolution.


Heck, even after Manticore made the decision that the continued survival of the League was incompatible with their longterm safety they still have to think of managing the post breakup world. To some extent they're playing the diplomatic game to maintain, or increase, their reputation and negotiating clout for during and after the breakup. They need to do nearly everything to show that they bent over backwards to avoid this, and it was the corrupt and out of control League government that was solely responsible for this interstellar trainwreck. (Because that's a very good wedge with which to split systems off from it).

A fair amount of (informed) risk to their ambassador is (again IMHO) worth it to be seen as trying to keep the lines of negotiation open even as the unelected Mandarins continue greater and greater provocations (leading to greater and greater failures for the SLN).
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Somtaaw   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:08 pm

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cthia wrote:
Somtaaw wrote:Honestly, I've been surprised he hasn't been ordered home ever since he gave them the notes just after the Filareta & Tsang he should have left.

He'd done all he really could by that point, and if I'd been Caparelli, or even a senior advisor, I would have been recommending something larger than a DB deliver that data for Carmichael to deliver, and then bring him home.


And after the diaster of Filareta actually crossing the Manticore hyper limit, and firing... de facto state of war with a nation that hadn't signed "Ambassadors are legally off limits to touch", I wouldn't have thought twice about the non-discretionary recall order.


And given how fast, we as the readers, saw at least one Mandarin jumping to "well let's imprison Carmichael on jumped up charges", well.... yeah.

I certainly concur. Yet it is interesting that you think he should have remained throughout Filareta's folly. Knowing so far in advance that he was coming and considering what was planned for him, I think he should have gotten out before the folly. I think he should have been recalled prior to the activation of Laccon.

The shutting of the junctions reminds me of the locking down of sections of a damaged warship during an attack - get out before you're sealed in and the creek rises! The only difference being that instead of a warship being damaged and lower decks flooding, it was the political ship of diplomacy that was severely damaged and the higher decks of diplomacy sinking. Before Manticore began to batten down the hatches with Lacoon (which should have literally telegraphed a military posturing to the arrogant League), Carmichael should have been recalled, IMO.



Well Laocoon was certainly aggressive, but Manticore (at that time) was still almost pleading for some sense to entire the bureaucrats heads. Keeping Ambassador Carmichael on Old Terra in that situation did make sense, even if it was a bit of a risk, it was less so than making such an "aggressive, could be construed as an act of war" while simultaneously pulling your Ambassador out would have been implying.

By the time of Filareta's Folly, however it has become absolutely clear that diplomacy and trying to stop the shooting is very clearly, a waste of time. In that situation, keeping your Ambassador when every attempt to resolve the dispute that started in New Tuscany with Byng has ended up with more and more Solarian fleet units being dispatched (and torn apart).


Case in point, Carmichael had to seek refuge from his official Manticoran embassy, into the Beowulf one just to stay safe from the howling mobs that E&I whipped up. By that point, he should have been boarding a Roland that had been left stationed at Old Terra specifically after delivering the latest notes for him to hand over.


If I were an analyst projecting League responses, a Roland is better than a dispatch boat to have pulled out Ambassador Carmichael, yet 'safe' in avoiding unncessary antagonizing. After all, if Dame Medusa had intended on using a Roland to deliver her message to Meyers, which led to discovering Crandall early, certainly a Roland would have been acceptable for extracting Carmichael. By the time they'd realized he was off planet, the Roland would have been accelerating at upwards of 500 g, yet has defences a DB doesn't in the event the Mandarins ordered Kingsford to order a local squadron to force the Roland to stop.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by kzt   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:52 pm

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Somtaaw wrote:If I were an analyst projecting League responses, a Roland is better than a dispatch boat to have pulled out Ambassador Carmichael, yet 'safe' in avoiding unncessary antagonizing. After all, if Dame Medusa had intended on using a Roland to deliver her message to Meyers, which led to discovering Crandall early, certainly a Roland would have been acceptable for extracting Carmichael. By the time they'd realized he was off planet, the Roland would have been accelerating at upwards of 500 g, yet has defences a DB doesn't in the event the Mandarins ordered Kingsford to order a local squadron to force the Roland to stop.

A Rolland is a really bad idea. It has all the cool tech and limited defenses. For example, let's say you have the ambassador making good his escape in someone else's shuttle, along with an escort of two platoons of SL marines in power armor. Or say someone very carefully blows the nodes off it one morning at 2am along with punching out all the weapons. Or just cut the front or rear 80 meters off the ship, very carefully avoiding the reactors. You can achieve amazing accuracy with a shipboard energy weapon at a few thousand km range.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by Somtaaw   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:59 pm

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kzt wrote:
Somtaaw wrote:If I were an analyst projecting League responses, a Roland is better than a dispatch boat to have pulled out Ambassador Carmichael, yet 'safe' in avoiding unncessary antagonizing. After all, if Dame Medusa had intended on using a Roland to deliver her message to Meyers, which led to discovering Crandall early, certainly a Roland would have been acceptable for extracting Carmichael. By the time they'd realized he was off planet, the Roland would have been accelerating at upwards of 500 g, yet has defences a DB doesn't in the event the Mandarins ordered Kingsford to order a local squadron to force the Roland to stop.

A Rolland is a really bad idea. It has all the cool tech and limited defenses. For example, let's say you have the shuttle with the ambassador coming with an escort of two platoons of SL marines in power armor. Or say someone very carefully blows the nodes off it one morning at 2am along with punching out all the weapons. Or just cut the front or rear 80 meters off the ship, very carefully avoiding the reactors. You can achieve amazing accuracy with a shipboard energy weapon at a few thousand km range.


Least possible evil, a DB is helpless if anyone fired at it period, while older classes are both too slow and their defenses are sub-par.

Keep in mind as well, I would have suggested the Roland to deliver to messages (regarding what happened to Filareta) aboard the Roland, Carmichael would have delivered the note, and reboarded the destroyer. By the time the note went from the 'official' receive the Y Valiente fellow to the Mandarins, Carmichael and the Roland would already have been at least halfway to the hyperlimit. By the time orders to shoot could possibly have been sent, with Solly slower than light radio, the Roland would have already been across the limit and gone into hyper.

In his present situation, he's got no choice now but to rely on Beowulfe to pull him out when they leave Old Terra, or wait for a Manticoran DB, because things are too hostile for a modern warship now.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by cthia   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:16 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:
cthia wrote: I certainly concur. Yet it is interesting that you think he should have remained throughout Filareta's folly. Knowing so far in advance that he was coming and considering what was planned for him, I think he should have gotten out before the folly. I think he should have been recalled prior to the activation of Laccon.
It certainly increased the risk to Carmichael to not withdraw him when Laacoon was activated.

But his safety isn't (and IMHO shouldn't be) the top priority for Manticore. They're still hoping someone in the League government will come to their senses and choke this off short of a full war. But withdrawing your diplomat is a usual prelude to war - it sends the League exactly the wrong signal to withdraw the embassy and then choke off all trade - it signals that you're no longer willing to negotiate or make peace. Leaving him there lets them attempt to use Laccon as a wake-up call for opening negotiations - not the first step in a full blown war.

At even as late as the arrival of Raging Justice, if Fileretta hadn't been screwed by MALign plots to attack after he'd decided to withdraw having the embassy there to open talks would have increased the chances that the one deescalation would be the start of a peaceful resolution.


Heck, even after Manticore made the decision that the continued survival of the League was incompatible with their longterm safety they still have to think of managing the post breakup world. To some extent they're playing the diplomatic game to maintain, or increase, their reputation and negotiating clout for during and after the breakup. They need to do nearly everything to show that they bent over backwards to avoid this, and it was the corrupt and out of control League government that was solely responsible for this interstellar trainwreck. (Because that's a very good wedge with which to split systems off from it).

A fair amount of (informed) risk to their ambassador is (again IMHO) worth it to be seen as trying to keep the lines of negotiation open even as the unelected Mandarins continue greater and greater provocations (leading to greater and greater failures for the SLN).

I considered as well that risk is part and parcel of an ambassador's job and for the most part, he's somewhat expendable. But, in situation's like this, I'd think that an ambassador's safety and survival is better than 90 %, but considering present company is an arrogant League, an arrogant League who will surely become desperate (and desperation begets foolish decisions), and the fact that the League never signed the pertinent interstellar convention regarding an ambassador's safety, and the fact that it's questionable at best whether the League themselves would be able to protect him from angry Solarian citizens even if they wanted to (especially after the garbage of honey-coated-lies they're being fed)... Well, quite frankly, I'm surprised he isn't dead already. Leaving him there to do his job, albeit a very important one in the face of danger is one thing. But leaving him to surely die (as I think he will) is another. His safety shouldn't be first and foremost as you've said, but IMO his certain death should be.

I suppose at the heart of my feelings is the fact that I really don't want Manticore to lose yet another ambassador on that planet. Perhaps we both agree that he should be extracted? Just when should he have been? <shrugs>

Or perhaps you think he should stay his course and weather the storm, even though the building clouds over his head are very very dark - I identify those ominous clouds not as cumulonimbuses but cumulobimbosses.

In the end, I really can't argue your point. And I concur and defer to your better sensibilities here. I'm probably much too emotionally vested. As I've already stated, I even considered as well that risk is part and parcel of an ambassador's job and for the most part, he's somewhat expendable. However, I certainly don't like it. I'm already preparing myself that in the next book, Carmichael dies.


Moving farther along, I think you are correct and perhaps Carmichael should tough it out 'til the bitter end - an end that surely will be bitter if it passes the reservoir of RFC's quill and I come across it.

And there's absolutely nothing that the RMN can do that it isn't doing already - still considering the bigger picture.

'Oh shut up will you!'

Sorry guys, there's one on one shoulder shouting "No man left behind!"

...and the other shoulder his doppelganger shouts "And remember Theisman said that your duty is to your own."

The only time the two voices in my head have ever concurred on anything. Even though both are probably wrong.

Edit: invested => vested

.
Last edited by cthia on Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by kzt   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:39 pm

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The embassy isn't one guy, it's a whole bunch of people who support the mission and the ambassador, and their dependents. Keep that in mind when thinking about evacuating.
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Re: The fate of Carmichael
Post by pnakasone   » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:59 pm

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Leaving ambassadors in place to the last possible moment is not unusual. The Japanese ambassadors where literally sitting in the outer office of the secretary of state Cordell Hull while Pear Harbor was attacked.

As it has been pointed out removing your ambassadors sends the signal that you officially no longer consider a negotiated settlement possible.
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