Terms of Surrender (for the Mandarins)

kzt wrote:

Eagleeye wrote:Because, the eradication of this ... genetically ingrained mental lazyness alone is a herculanean task that would need at least a generation; more probably two or three. In other words - much more time as both the GA and the Mesan Alignment are willing to give them.

I seem to remember the US having only contempt for the Imperial Japanese military on Dec 6, 1941, and a pretty much total discounting of the idea that they were really a threat. Much less any popular commitment to a huge mobilization of the entire population and economy to dedicate it to crushing them.

I understand that something happened that changed that opinion but I can't think of what it might be, perhaps you might help me?

Minor nit #1: the technical base between the contenders of the WW2 were more or less on the same level. Especially the military technology.

Minor nit#2: It is much easier to change the mindset of a population of just a continent than it is to change the mindset of a population of - what? - 200 or so? worlds (if we only count the core worlds of the SL). Communication delay times come to mind; and the fact, that noone - not one, and not in the better part of a thousand years of recorded history - attacked the Solarian League in any serious way. Oh, there were some small wars with solarian forces involved (that simulated battle (based on a real one) that Harkness changed on board of PNS Tepes comes to mind), but never in their history the SL faced a contender with such an ability to hurt them. That has to sink in, first. (And that is only the one they know about. The Mesan Alignment isn't even acknowledged by the mandarins as a contender against the Solarian League)

But after the better part of a 1,000 years of peace (at least as far as the core worlds are concerned) you simply can't push a button and put a whole civilisation on a war footing from one day to another. Impossible. Not with all the corruption and all the "not here invented"-mindset, accumulated through these long years of peace.

pnakasone wrote:Never underestimate what a nation can achieve or do when it has to. During world war 2 Germany and Japan where both producing large amounts of military equipment long after they should have collapsed economically. Both were also still heavily funding weapon research programs up till they surrendered.

Here is one fun fact is that at the end of WW2 the US debt-to-GDP ratio was 113%.

It is now a game of who can hold the longest economically the GA whom feel they fighting for their survival of their nations or the SL worlds many of which will not feel so motivated.

As far as I know, no nation-state has ever decided to surrender in an existential war simply over economic reasons. People, once the decide they need to fight, will fight far past what seems reasonable. They will arrange to get stuff done despite what economist will later say.

For example, the U.K. pretty much destroyed itself rather than cut the deal with Hitler that he was fully confident would come.

kzt wrote:

Nico wrote:Also important to consider, is that although most of the Core Worlds are very wealthy, the GA's ability to deny them the wormhole network means that their economies will rapidly enter a recession, which will affect their ability to pay for a massive, intensive R&D effort.

While having to replace your entire manufacturing and orbital infrastructure - worth multiples of your system gross product - from scratch, training millions to run that infrastructure (hence assuring everyone is a FNG) while at the same time having lost 95% of your trade partners and losing of 90% of your junction revenue is only a minor pip compared to the terror of low value shipments piling up and high value shipments taking longer then planned.

As much as Manticore is hurting for money because of the closure of WH and recall of freighters, so are many League worlds. The goal is to convince as many systems as you can that leaving the League is the way to go, the way to open the trade routes again. This way Manticore benefits and so do the systems leaving the League. Afterall aren't the mandarins worried about just that situation popping up? The big corporations switching sides and taking many systems with them?

kzt wrote:

pnakasone wrote:Never underestimate what a nation can achieve or do when it has to. During world war 2 Germany and Japan where both producing large amounts of military equipment long after they should have collapsed economically. Both were also still heavily funding weapon research programs up till they surrendered.

Here is one fun fact is that at the end of WW2 the US debt-to-GDP ratio was 113%.

It is now a game of who can hold the longest economically the GA whom feel they fighting for their survival of their nations or the SL worlds many of which will not feel so motivated.

As far as I know, no nation-state has ever decided to surrender in an existential war simply over economic reasons. People, once the decide they need to fight, will fight far past what seems reasonable. They will arrange to get stuff done despite what economist will later say.

For example, the U.K. pretty much destroyed itself rather than cut the deal with Hitler that he was fully confident would come.

Exactly.

Brigade XO wrote:Vast differneces between the 1940 US and the present SL.

Not the least of that is that while SOME of the SL knows now what RMN (and shortly will know to include the PRH in that) can do, they have only the knowlege of some of the ranges, the degree of superiorty in ECM, that Manticore (not Haven) had practical FTL communications and an idea of how superior the RMN/PRH missiles performance is vs SLN equipment.

To continue with why Dec 6, 1941 is a reasonable metaphor

"Blind to the Sun: U.S. Intelligence Failures
Before the War with Japan"

Despite the skills and intentions of these men, their reporting flew in the face of pervasive Oriental stereotypes and was victimized by an Occidental bias. Much of the reporting about America’s future wartime adversaries was filtered through this perceptual lens. ‘‘German efficiency, unity, and organization became racial maxims in American minds. Germany could do almost anything militarily, and partially for the same racial reasoning the American leaders suspected that Japan could do almost nothing.’’14

In the United States, popular magazine reports of Japanese aviation fostered images of pilots plagued by poor eyesight, physical handicaps, and mechanical ineptitude. Some of these fictions were even the product of the writings of William D. Puleston, a former director of naval intelligence.

Professional journals of the time echoed many of the same sentiments. A wide assumption was that the Japanese simply could not design their own aircraft and relied, instead, on reverse engineering Western-built aircraft, or outright purchases of foreign types.1 5 The June 1941 issue of Proceedings carried a report that estimated Japanese aircraft design was seven to eight years behind design trends in the West.16 Even Chennault, an astute observer, was not immune. Before submitting his detailed report on the aircraft, Chennault initially identified the nimble Claude fighter as a French-built Dewoitine 501.17 Japan, many American experts believed, was just incapable of forging the weapons of modern aviation.

A more dispassionate and critical analysis of the facts would have revealed the Japanese regarded naval aviation as a critically important new weapon of war. Japanese pilots were rigorously screened before admission to flight
school and then thoroughly trained. Western aircraft imports were secured mainly for test flying and for technical exploitation....

kzt wrote:
To continue with why Dec 6, 1941 is a reasonable metaphor

"Blind to the Sun: U.S. Intelligence Failures
Before the War with Japan" [...]

Nice quote, but ... The Solarian League, 1922 PD, is, at least in this aspect, not comparable to the United States, AD 1941. Reason: The last big war, which had at least the potential to threaten the integrity of the US (WW1) ended only 23 years before. There were still many people, who could remember that war; maybe even had fought in it. Changing from peace footing to a war footing, after Pearl Harbor, was, therefore, more or less straightforward - or had, at least, no insurmountable problems.

The last big war, which had at least the potential to threaten the integrity of the Solarian League ... did not exist (at least as far as we know). It's as simple as that. For more than 99.999% of the population of the core worlds it's just not conceivable, that any human-based star nation should be able to pose a real danger for the existence of the SL in its present form.

Breaking through this kind of mindset (which is something like a natural law, as far as Core-World-Solarians think about it at all) doesn't happen fast enough to do the Solarian League any good.

And that is valid even after Byng, Crandall and Filareta managed (or, in Filaretas case: was forced to manage by mesan nanotech used against his Flag Operations Officer) to kill countless solarian spacers.

HB of CJ wrote:Also consider that there are too many real and difficult trip points leading down that non returnable road to a prolonged shooting war nobody is going to win.

Plus the naggy fact that there are just too few common agreeable communication points to hold off everything falling apart. Do not underestimate the evil MA.

Galactic Armageddon is quite possible. One plan that MIGHT, (might) work to stop future shooting is to just open very quick frank discussions and say "Whoa Nellie!".

This means stop right now. Both sides. All sides. But ... this would not apply to the MA which is the central point of communications.

The GA just says anyway they can ... "STOP PLEASE!" Try to get the Mandarins and the Sollies, (different entities?) attention? Any port in the storm to prevent shooting?

All it costs the GA is pride and ego. It might head off the deaths of many billions and save who knows how many $trillions$. Try to expose the MA to the Mandarins.

Low probability of working. But .... nothing ventured, nothing gained. Everybody might go down shooting but at least the best attempt was made to WAGE PEACE!

This idea has already been addressed in the books. The economic and military potential of the SL is many times that of Manticore, even with Haven factored in. Eventually the SL will be able to duplicate Manticore's technology and be able to attack with far stronger forces. In fact, that is what the Mandarins have discussed. Manticore's only choice is to go for the jugular now.

ewlandmine99 wrote:

HB of CJ wrote:Also consider that there are too many real and difficult trip points leading down that non returnable road to a prolonged shooting war nobody is going to win.

Plus the naggy fact that there are just too few common agreeable communication points to hold off everything falling apart. Do not underestimate the evil MA.

Galactic Armageddon is quite possible. One plan that MIGHT, (might) work to stop future shooting is to just open very quick frank discussions and say "Whoa Nellie!".

This means stop right now. Both sides. All sides. But ... this would not apply to the MA which is the central point of communications.

The GA just says anyway they can ... "STOP PLEASE!" Try to get the Mandarins and the Sollies, (different entities?) attention? Any port in the storm to prevent shooting?

All it costs the GA is pride and ego. It might head off the deaths of many billions and save who knows how many $trillions$. Try to expose the MA to the Mandarins.

Low probability of working. But .... nothing ventured, nothing gained. Everybody might go down shooting but at least the best attempt was made to WAGE PEACE!

This idea has already been addressed in the books. The economic and military potential of the SL is many times that of Manticore, even with Haven factored in. Eventually the SL will be able to duplicate Manticore's technology and be able to attack with far stronger forces. In fact, that is what the Mandarins have discussed. Manticore's only choice is to go for the jugular now.

Captain Gweon predicted near the End of ART (chapter 31, the interesting part itself starts at page 394, HC-edition), that Manticore and Haven together will effectively match the SL economic power in no more than 15 years.

If that prediction holds air (and if the GA leadership is ruthless - or dumb - enough to do it), the GA has not necessarily to go for the jugular ... as long as they remain far enough in the lead in their deployed military tech.

kzt wrote:

pnakasone wrote:Never underestimate what a nation can achieve or do when it has to. During world war 2 Germany and Japan where both producing large amounts of military equipment long after they should have collapsed economically. Both were also still heavily funding weapon research programs up till they surrendered.

Here is one fun fact is that at the end of WW2 the US debt-to-GDP ratio was 113%.

It is now a game of who can hold the longest economically the GA whom feel they fighting for their survival of their nations or the SL worlds many of which will not feel so motivated.

As far as I know, no nation-state has ever decided to surrender in an existential war simply over economic reasons. People, once the decide they need to fight, will fight far past what seems reasonable. They will arrange to get stuff done despite what economist will later say.

For example, the U.K. pretty much destroyed itself rather than cut the deal with Hitler that he was fully confident would come.

The one great advantage that the GA has, besides their obvious military superiority and their control of the wormhole network, is that the League, for all its might and reputation, is not a true nation state. Even though its citizens are appreciative of the benefits that came with League membership they do not have any deeply entrenched feelings of loyalty towards the New Chicago bureaucracy. Their loyalty lie first and foremost with their local planetary governments. And the citizens of the Protectorates actively detest the League. All of this makes for a very fragile political situation, even if most Solarians do not recognize it as such. After all, they do not know any different.

This is, of course, the basis of both the GA's and the MAllign's strategy. Both are anticipating that the mighty edifice will shatter if a hard enough impact is applied.

Nico wrote:This is, of course, the basis of both the GA's and the MAllign's strategy. Both are anticipating that the mighty edifice will shatter if a hard enough impact is applied.

Applied right, and without appropriate reaction, yes it might. But leaping off into the unknown from something that has been working effectively for 1000 years. It's like the Goths marching up to Florence and telling them how they should bail on this whole Roman empire stuff. Trust us.