Terms of Surrender (for the Mandarins)

Eagleeye wrote:Because, the eradication of this ... genetically ingrained mental lazyness alone is a herculanean task that would need at least a generation; more probably two or three. In other words - much more time as both the GA and the Mesan Alignment are willing to give them.

I seem to remember the US having only contempt for the Imperial Japanese military on Dec 6, 1941, and a pretty much total discounting of the idea that they were really a threat. Much less any popular commitment to a huge mobilization of the entire population and economy to dedicate it to crushing them.

I understand that something happened that changed that opinion but I can't think of what it might be, perhaps you might help me?

Vast differneces between the 1940 US and the present SL.

Not the least of that is that while SOME of the SL knows now what RMN (and shortly will know to include the PRH in that) can do, they have only the knowlege of some of the ranges, the degree of superiorty in ECM, that Manticore (not Haven) had practical FTL communications and an idea of how superior the RMN/PRH missiles performance is vs SLN equipment.

Sure, they have the reports of Byng's 2nd in command, the surviving Sr. officer from Spindle and the surviving SR officers (and as many others that contributed to the reports that Manticore LET THEM SEND plus the tactical data (scrubbed) Manticore sent along plus info from Monica and ?Nuncio? where the FF BC force retreated. But the actual tech to match that, not even close. Effectively they are going to have to develop the tech, test it, implement it on NEW ships (the existing ships would be a cast-iron bitch to retrofit without starting on the software and miniaturization of all the components that would be nessisary to create weapons in the same performance range plus thing like the FTL.

Kingsford has addressed this though not in so many words. The existing ships in the SL inventory are, for the most part, hopelessly outclassed and outranged. All the capital ships (all those SD) are so much junk fit for little more than target practice or scrapping for raw materials. Things from the BC range and lowere MIGHT work if they can either ambush GA ships or swam them with numbers- hence the commerce rainding strategy. To actually build new ships that are going to be effective against the GA, they are going to have to "improve" them. And they don't really know where to start because they will have to develop a LOT of stuff first go be able to incorporate it into new designes.
They don't have the time.
Sure, they have an Alignment mole in SLN now providing essentialy strategic advice to Kingsford but he doen't have any of the technical information. While we don't yet know what else the Alignment has beyond Spyder and Streak Drives (and the ships and weapons that take advantage of those things) we also don't seem to have been told if any actual weapons improvements beyond the Cataphracts are in the hand of SLN (and perhaps not actualy where they can continue to be made for SLN, or any more advanced than SLN weapons and systems in the hand of Mannheim or other pre-RF systems.

Kingsford may do a bunch of damage to the GA with commerce raiding but it will cost him a lot of ships and crews (and their experience) plus any more large force attacks against the GA is probably just going to gut the SLN in therms of crew and ships so they will be having fewer and fewer experienced people to put on any "improved" ships they might be able to lay down and finish in the next 3- 7 years.

You have 5 years of cease-fire, with a whole bunch of officers sacked for not having the right party supporters. What do you think they did? Well, I'd predict, based on what military leaders have always done after a war, they wrote books and published articles.

You had a huge assault on the Manticoran home system, with enormous losses in the RMN. Do you really think the post-battle discussion in the press and in the public hearing won't be somewhat enlightening as to the capabilities of the RMN and RHN?

The assumption that there is nobody among the 10 trillion or so people in the SL have bothers to keep track of these kind of things is pretty silly.

HB of CJ wrote:Sosss, will the Manties and the GA understand that they are tickling the hind leg of that very big and very powerful 800 pound Gorilla? If the GA goes for a quick victory, it will quickly become neither victory nor quick. The GA can not physically destroy the entire Sollie League. Not by a factor of at least 10. Maybe even more.

The GA knows they've kicked the 1000# gorilla.

You're wrong about the battle, though--the SLN doesn't have anything that wouldn't be a piece of cake for the GA to defeat. The only problem is the GA can't occupy the territory.

What if the Sollies or the Mandarins tell the GA to pound sand? What then? Both sides know that in 3 to 5 years the Sollie fleets will pound out and roll over ANY possible GA fleet. This goes beyond political. It becomes industrial potential. Again folks, there is no GA victory here. History proves victory goes to the "Biggest Battalions".

Disagree--even 5 years is being quite optimistic assuming the GA isn't going around punching out your military infrastructure. In practice they're going to have to build a hidden shipyard before they can even hope to build a fleet.

Soss, what to do? Wage peace. The GA needs to huff and puff and try to get the Mandarins AND the Sollie League to lay off. The problem is can the GA get the Sollies to NOT consider just rebuilding their huge fleet potential and then much later, (years) just turning on the GA? That is the problem. Long term Galactic Peace may not be a coming.

The SLN can't lay off. Anything less than a resounding victory causes them to lose control of an awful lot of systems they are desperate to hold on to.

HB of CJ wrote:Everything the GA can do right now, the Sollies will be able to do 100 times better in LESS THAN THREE YEARS. Do the math. Now do the math for 5 years! Even with the Andes commenting suicide and joining up with the GA, the GA is doomed in the end. Yikes!

It would take them at least years to start building ships even if they had all the tech right now--and there's tech they don't even know about.

Brigade XO wrote:Vast differneces between the 1940 US and the present SL.

Not the least of that is that while SOME of the SL knows now what RMN (and shortly will know to include the PRH in that) can do, they have only the knowlege of some of the ranges, the degree of superiorty in ECM, that Manticore (not Haven) had practical FTL communications and an idea of how superior the RMN/PRH missiles performance is vs SLN equipment.

You think that is unique?

From "Blind to the Sun: U.S. Intelligence Failures Before the War with Japan"
In a similar vein, Admiral Layton recounts that until he reported aboard the U.S.S. Pennsylvania in December 1940:

The Pacific Fleet never had a full-time intelligence officer... the sturdy safe built into battleship Pennsylvania’s bulkhead as a repository for the fleet’s most secret documents contained just eighteen file folders;and most of them were empty!

In only one did I discover any [emphasis in the original] information about Japan. This was ONI Monograph 49, which, kept meticulously up to date, provided only the broadest generalities about the imperial navy. It had languished in the safe for years protected by its redstamped cover, which read, TO BE REMOVED ONLY IN THE EVENT OF WAR.4

Eagleeye wrote:There is one additional aspect in all this mess. The Sollies at large don't have developed the necessary mindset. They are not at a war footing the way Manticore and Haven are. Why should they? They knew already they were the biggest and meanest gorilla in the neighborhood. After all, no other star nation would be crazy enough to attack the invincible Solarian League. That is a kind of genetical anchored belief you simply can't eradicate fast enough.

Because, the eradication of this ... genetically ingrained mental lazyness alone is a herculanean task that would need at least a generation; more probably two or three. In other words - much more time as both the GA and the Mesan Alignment are willing to give them.

Also important to consider, is that although most of the Core Worlds are very wealthy, the GA's ability to deny them the wormhole network means that their economies will rapidly enter a recession, which will affect their ability to pay for a massive, intensive R&D effort.

Nico wrote:Also important to consider, is that although most of the Core Worlds are very wealthy, the GA's ability to deny them the wormhole network means that their economies will rapidly enter a recession, which will affect their ability to pay for a massive, intensive R&D effort.

While having to replace your entire manufacturing and orbital infrastructure - worth multiples of your system gross product - from scratch, training millions to run that infrastructure (hence assuring everyone is a FNG) while at the same time having lost 95% of your trade partners and losing of 90% of your junction revenue is only a minor pip compared to the terror of low value shipments piling up and high value shipments taking longer then planned.

One issue is the the SL dos not really have the ability to to really tap full industrial and research potential of its member worlds.

kzt wrote:

Nico wrote:Also important to consider, is that although most of the Core Worlds are very wealthy, the GA's ability to deny them the wormhole network means that their economies will rapidly enter a recession, which will affect their ability to pay for a massive, intensive R&D effort.

While having to replace your entire manufacturing and orbital infrastructure - worth multiples of your system gross product - from scratch, training millions to run that infrastructure (hence assuring everyone is a FNG) while at the same time having lost 95% of your trade partners and losing of 90% of your junction revenue is only a minor pip compared to the terror of low value shipments piling up and high value shipments taking longer then planned.

Never underestimate what a nation can achieve or do when it has to. During world war 2 Germany and Japan where both producing large amounts of military equipment long after they should have collapsed economically. Both were also still heavily funding weapon research programs up till they surrendered.

Here is one fun fact is that at the end of WW2 the US debt-to-GDP ratio was 113%.

It is now a game of who can hold out the longest economically the GA whom feel they are fighting for their survival of their nations or the SL worlds many of which will not feel so motivated.