ISIS

DDHv wrote:The math assumes the precursors already exist, and only calculates the odds for assembly of them. It does not include the odds for production of or breakdown of the amino acids. I know that in any amino acid linkage, there is a 50% chance of linking another with the same handedness. I've read that the odds of having a peptide bond instead of one of the other possible ones for amino acids also runs about 50%. The lowest odds I've found so far for any stable protein fold, let alone a functional one, were given as one in 10^63 power. The latest estimate of the minimum number of proteins needed for reproduction is in the hundreds. If the math from these things is incorrect, point out exactly where it is incorrect, don't just say it is wrong. Ditto for the odds of all possible events in the visible universe.

The wrongness is not in the Math. It's in you. You're saying "These events are astronomically unlikely, so much so that they can't occur naturally". Which is a statement you must prove before adding in a creator entity.

"Unlikely" does not mean "impossible". Simple as that.

To just say there were precursor steps doesn't provide any evidence for them.

Does the term "Abiogenesis" mean anything to you? No? Then please, feel free to research it, paying particular attention to the results of the Miller-Urey experiment.

He is consistent in providing real choices and requiring accountability, even to the point of taking the penalty

Please explain, in detail, what chain of events led to the Hebrews being condemmed to hate and genocide, given how exalted they were at first. If there is consistency, then surely the causal relationship should be easy to explain.

The Hebrews are the means of humanity's salvation. They were Chosen by God to be the conduit for Jesus. They are and they remain His Chosen People.

The E wrote:
snip

The wrongness is not in the Math. It's in you. You're saying "These events are astronomically unlikely, so much so that they can't occur naturally". Which is a statement you must prove before adding in a creator entity.

"Unlikely" does not mean "impossible". Simple as that.

Astronomical odds calculate to only 10^139 in the most conservative calculation I've seen. This isn't even in the same galaxy as the odds against the first life happening. Any time provable odds get greater than 10^12:1 about something, it is about time to call it proven. I wouldn't bet my life against odds of even 10^9:1

E, when I started investing, only the possibility of things was looked at, and money was lost. When the focus was changed to testing the probabilities, that changed. This is very much more work, but ROI has averaged above 30% annualized with the new strategy for the last five months - eighteen more months of that rate and all that was lost will have been recovered.

Whether I can continue to figure the probabilities well ...

The E wrote:

To just say there were precursor steps doesn't provide any evidence for them.

Does the term "Abiogenesis" mean anything to you? No? Then please, feel free to research it, paying particular attention to the results of the Miller-Urey experiment.

The Miller-Urey experiment was carefully arranged using a mixture of gasses we now know wasn't correct, contained a trap to prevent the supplied energy from decomposing the results as well as producing them, and would have required some means to have only one handedness picked out in order to produce proteins. These inserted information into the setup. Also, amino-amino bonds produced a sludge, rather than a peptide linked functional result. I'm currently studying

http://jpkc2010.nudt.edu.cn/xxlybmjc/ji ... mation.PDF


and have a hopefully improved definition of information:

Information is improbable, specified, functional data. The function can be communication, as now; or control, as in DNA or a CNC program.

Experience to date has shown production of even medium amounts of information only by intelligent choice. Although, as in the M-U experiment, often the information is inserted without admitting that is being done.

The E wrote:

He is consistent in providing real choices and requiring accountability, even to the point of taking the penalty

Please explain, in detail, what chain of events led to the Hebrews being condemmed to hate and genocide, given how exalted they were at first. If there is consistency, then surely the causal relationship should be easy to explain.

Who says they were exalted? The Bible calls them the least of all the peoples. Counting Joseph's sons, there were only seventy people at the start in Egypt. If the estimates of Egyptian population (which vary widely) are roughly correct, and the estimate of two million leaving at the exodus is approximately correct, it is easy to see why Pharoah was concerned about their growth in numbers!

They behaved so badly they got an extra forty years in the wilderness. Chosen does not mean better. Read Deuteronomy chapter 28. The land was given to them, but they specifically were told that if they chose to rebel against God they would be out of it for a time, and suffering. The causal element is accountability. The Bible also speaks of an enemy who was the first to rebel against God, and led many others into rebellion. It says hell was made for the devil and his angels.

What other people who have been out of their homeland for ten generations or more, have remained a people, and have returned to it are you able to present for a counter example


The evidence presented by Islam for the Quran being God's word is the improbability of an illiterate producing high quality poetry in Arabic, stating that it was from God. The development of much travel, and a great increase in knowledge (Daniel 12:4) while true, are peanuts compared to the improbability of this specific people being still in existence, and back in the land

Known illiterates who produced high-quality poetry
in their native tongue:

Homer: Iliad, Oddessy.

HTM

DDHv wrote:
{big snip - htm}

The evidence presented by Islam for the Quran being God's word
is the improbability of an illiterate producing high quality
poetry in Arabic, stating that it was from God.

At the time of writing, there is breaking news about a gun attack in Munich, targeting one of Munich's larger shopping areas.
Early reports indicate at least six fatalities and an unknown but probably large number of injuries. Eyewitnesses claim to have seen a minimum of three gunmen.
The current theory seems to be that it is an operation launched by ISIS, but in an unusual turn of events, there doesn't seem to have been any sign of any suicide bombers.
The lack of suicide bombers is actually concerning as it indicates that ISIS may be shifting more towards IRA-style operations, using guns ad bombs to inflict civilian casualties without sacrificing their own operatives. As this is a more professional way of waging asymmetrical war, this indicates that ISIS are learning. In addition, it suggests that they are starting to see their members as being more than simply one-shot guidance systems for big attacks. this means that their operatives are likely to begin accumulating experience which they may be able to pass to the next generation of terrorists.

DDHv wrote:Astronomical odds calculate to only 10^139 in the most conservative calculation I've seen. This isn't even in the same galaxy as the odds against the first life happening. Any time provable odds get greater than 10^12:1 about something, it is about time to call it proven. I wouldn't bet my life against odds of even 10^9:1

Bla bla bla. You are tossing out numbers without source or context in an attempt to "prove" a creator. To quote yourself:

Saying a thing is cheap. Providing evidence takes work.

The Miller-Urey experiment was carefully arranged using a mixture of gasses we now know wasn't correct,

The experiment was repeated with different atmospheres.

More recent experiments by chemists Jeffrey Bada, one of Miller's graduate students, and Jim Cleaves at Scripps Institution of Oceanography of the University of California, San Diego were similar to those performed by Miller. However, Bada noted that in current models of early Earth conditions, carbon dioxide and nitrogen (N2) create nitrites, which destroy amino acids as fast as they form. When Bada performed the Miller-type experiment with the addition of iron and carbonate minerals, the products were rich in amino acids. This suggests the origin of significant amounts of amino acids may have occurred on Earth even with an atmosphere containing carbon dioxide and nitrogen.

contained a trap to prevent the supplied energy from decomposing the results as well as producing them,

In reality, lightning is not continuous as the spark was, the environment is not confined and rain could have quenched thermal decomposition.

and wold have required some means to have only one handedness picked out in order to produce proteins.

Some crystals enrich molecules by chirality, depending on the surface they settle on. They also significantly interfere with local chemistry, changing the odds for formation of complex molecules.

These inserted information into the setup.

Your point being? Of course an assumption about initial conditions is information.

and have a hopefully improved definition of information:

Information is improbable, specified, functional data. The function can be communication, as now; or control, as in DNA or a CNC program.

Experience to date has shown production of even medium amounts of information only by intelligent choice.

Sounds like circular logic, unless you can prove DNA was not created naturally. Also, what is functional data in the first place?

Latest information indicates that this may be an ultra right nationalist group, with one recorded ranting about being born in Germany and throwing out foreigners.

Michael Everett wrote:At the time of writing, there is breaking news about a gun attack in Munich, targeting one of Munich's larger shopping areas.
Early reports indicate at least six fatalities and an unknown but probably large number of injuries. Eyewitnesses claim to have seen a minimum of three gunmen.
The current theory seems to be that it is an operation launched by ISIS, but in an unusual turn of events, there doesn't seem to have been any sign of any suicide bombers.
The lack of suicide bombers is actually concerning as it indicates that ISIS may be shifting more towards IRA-style operations, using guns ad bombs to inflict civilian casualties without sacrificing their own operatives. As this is a more professional way of waging asymmetrical war, this indicates that ISIS are learning. In addition, it suggests that they are starting to see their members as being more than simply one-shot guidance systems for big attacks. this means that their operatives are likely to begin accumulating experience which they may be able to pass to the next generation of terrorists.

You jumped the gun, Daryl. The guy was an Arayan but not a right wing white supremist. The guy was German born of Iranian descent. Not neonazi material.

Daryl wrote:Latest information indicates that this may be an ultra right nationalist group, with one recorded ranting about being born in Germany and throwing out foreigners.

Michael Everett wrote:At the time of writing, there is breaking news about a gun attack in Munich, targeting one of Munich's larger shopping areas.
Early reports indicate at least six fatalities and an unknown but probably large number of injuries. Eyewitnesses claim to have seen a minimum of three gunmen.
The current theory seems to be that it is an operation launched by ISIS, but in an unusual turn of events, there doesn't seem to have been any sign of any suicide bombers.
The lack of suicide bombers is actually concerning as it indicates that ISIS may be shifting more towards IRA-style operations, using guns ad bombs to inflict civilian casualties without sacrificing their own operatives. As this is a more professional way of waging asymmetrical war, this indicates that ISIS are learning. In addition, it suggests that they are starting to see their members as being more than simply one-shot guidance systems for big attacks. this means that their operatives are likely to begin accumulating experience which they may be able to pass to the next generation of terrorists.

PeterZ wrote:You jumped the gun, Daryl. The guy was an Arayan but not a right wing white supremist. The guy was German born of Iranian descent. Not neonazi material.

According to the police press conference, the perpetrator was in therapy for psychological issues. Police found a number of research materials where he lived showing a great obsession with amok runs of the past few years, but nothing showing any connection to organized terror groups of any kind.

And yeah, there was only one attacker.

It would seem I jumped the gun as well.
The person responsible for the Munich shooting appears to have been a loner obsessed with mass shootings and who was suffering from psychiatric problems.
Given the extremely strict German gun/weapon laws, it is rather unfortunate that the person in question still managed to get his hands on a weapon.
How he got his hands on the gun (9mm Glock pistol with about 300 rounds of ammunition in his backpack at the time it was recovered) is unknown, but he did not have a permit and the serial number was removed, rendering it virtually untraceable.

So, this was not linked to ISIS after all.
Mea culpa, I took the early reports at face value.

This may become an issue for the "Guns, Guns, Guns" thread though. The strictest weapons laws in Europe failed to stop a lone madman from getting his hands on a gun and killing nine people (plus injuring 27 others whether directly or indirectly).
I can see the "This is why gun laws don't make a difference" argument starting up again from this...