Terms of Surrender (for the Mandarins)

BobG wrote:It seems to me that the Mandarins saying "We're sorry, our Navy was tricked by the Evil Mesans, let's fight them together instead of fighting each other" would be one approach by them to get out of this mess - but they seem very unwilling to take that approach.

Probably because the MAlign has (or can easily fake) blackmail material that will get them lynched a lot faster than some Neobarbs destroying the League.

Also consider that there are too many real and difficult trip points leading down that non returnable road to a prolonged shooting war nobody is going to win.

Plus the naggy fact that there are just too few common agreeable communication points to hold off everything falling apart. Do not underestimate the evil MA.

Galactic Armageddon is quite possible. One plan that MIGHT, (might) work to stop future shooting is to just open very quick frank discussions and say "Whoa Nellie!".

This means stop right now. Both sides. All sides. But ... this would not apply to the MA which is the central point of communications.

The GA just says anyway they can ... "STOP PLEASE!" Try to get the Mandarins and the Sollies, (different entities?) attention? Any port in the storm to prevent shooting?

All it costs the GA is pride and ego. It might head off the deaths of many billions and save who knows how many $trillions$. Try to expose the MA to the Mandarins.

Low probability of working. But .... nothing ventured, nothing gained. Everybody might go down shooting but at least the best attempt was made to WAGE PEACE!

BobG wrote:One thing that has surprised me about the Mandarins is their complete unwillingness to support the "it's the Mesan Alignment's fault" line. Whether they believe it or not, it doesn't matter. They will advocate whatever they feel is in their best interests.

It seems to me that the Mandarins saying "We're sorry, our Navy was tricked by the Evil Mesans, let's fight them together instead of fighting each other" would be one approach by them to get out of this mess - but they seem very unwilling to take that approach.

-- Bob G

Which does nothing about the fact that the GA showed they were about as dangerous as a kitten. It would get them out of the fight with the GA but they would still lose all the systems that aren't happy with them--and that's what the Mandarins are really trying to prevent.

Loren Pechtel wrote:

BobG wrote:One thing that has surprised me about the Mandarins is their complete unwillingness to support the "it's the Mesan Alignment's fault" line. Whether they believe it or not, it doesn't matter. They will advocate whatever they feel is in their best interests.

It seems to me that the Mandarins saying "We're sorry, our Navy was tricked by the Evil Mesans, let's fight them together instead of fighting each other" would be one approach by them to get out of this mess - but they seem very unwilling to take that approach.

-- Bob G

Which does nothing about the fact that the GA showed they were about as dangerous as a kitten. It would get them out of the fight with the GA but they would still lose all the systems that aren't happy with them--and that's what the Mandarins are really trying to prevent.

They're losing them anyway. BobG's idea would at least permit the Mandarins to deploy the forces they have left against their other secessionists, the GA could be compelled by treaty to leave the Verge alone and reopen the wormholes to SL traffic.

That door, however, was closed when Filareta showed up at Manticore. Even if somehow it's later established exactly what happened aboard his flagship, the GA can no longer allow the SL's survival as a hostile and humiliated major power.

HB of CJ wrote:Also consider that there are too many real and difficult trip points leading down that non returnable road to a prolonged shooting war nobody is going to win.

Plus the naggy fact that there are just too few common agreeable communication points to hold off everything falling apart. Do not underestimate the evil MA.

Galactic Armageddon is quite possible. One plan that MIGHT, (might) work to stop future shooting is to just open very quick frank discussions and say "Whoa Nellie!".

This means stop right now. Both sides. All sides. But ... this would not apply to the MA which is the central point of communications.

The GA just says anyway they can ... "STOP PLEASE!" Try to get the Mandarins and the Sollies, (different entities?) attention? Any port in the storm to prevent shooting?

All it costs the GA is pride and ego. It might head off the deaths of many billions and save who knows how many $trillions$. Try to expose the MA to the Mandarins.

Low probability of working. But .... nothing ventured, nothing gained. Everybody might go down shooting but at least the best attempt was made to WAGE PEACE!

Even if the current Mandarins where removed from power the system that produced and supported them would still be in place. Can the system really be trusted to uphold any deal longer then it would take the SLN to get the over its tech disadvantage against the GA?

pnakasone wrote:Even if the current Mandarins where removed from power the system that produced and supported them would still be in place. Can the system really be trusted to uphold any deal longer then it would take the SLN to get the over its tech disadvantage against the GA?

At least in part, that would depend on who removed them from power and how. They've all broken League laws/regulations and consider themselves above the law. If the League prosecutes and convicts them of violating League laws, there will be little rebound against the GA. It would have to be a fairly deep purge of bureaucrats and Admirals to root out the business-as-usual crowd waiting in the wings.

I'm sure that the league has someplace like Hades for people they'd rather not hear from again, or Haven could offer to incarcerate them at Hades (for a small annual fee.)

If the GA captures and tries them -- even if they try them for violations of League law -- they're going to be Martyrs and rallying points for revanchism. The GA is best served by throwing them to the wolves in the League Assembly once the Assembly's ire is suitably aroused. In the meantime, the Madarins can be ignored as irrelevant and the GA can conduct any negotiations with the 'Elected' officials who should be handling such things.

HB of CJ wrote:The last thing the Grand Alliance, (GA) or Manticore wants to do is put the Mandarins into a corner. Or for that matter even greatly frightening or angering them. The Sollie behemoth is exactly that; the classic definition of "The Sleeping Giant".

An understanding or perhaps a gentleman's agreement between all parties would be much more desirable than a shooting war which the GA has no hope of ever winning over the years. Waging peace is much better and cheaper than shooting.

At this point, I don't think the Solly public is all that excited about leaving the Mandarins in charge. It's too late for them, the war is on and they're going to be dead or in prison because they were given a chance to surrender and chose to invade Manticore home space anyway. That's the unpardonable as far as the Houses of Winton, Manticore, etc. are concerned. If the SEM doesn't arrive first to take the Mandarins out, I am sure that Theisman and cohorts will be glad to.

SharkHunter wrote:

HB of CJ wrote:The last thing the Grand Alliance, (GA) or Manticore wants to do is put the Mandarins into a corner. Or for that matter even greatly frightening or angering them. The Sollie behemoth is exactly that; the classic definition of "The Sleeping Giant".

An understanding or perhaps a gentleman's agreement between all parties would be much more desirable than a shooting war which the GA has no hope of ever winning over the years. Waging peace is much better and cheaper than shooting.

At this point, I don't think the Solly public is all that excited about leaving the Mandarins in charge. It's too late for them, the war is on and they're going to be dead or in prison because they were given a chance to surrender and chose to invade Manticore home space anyway. That's the unpardonable as far as the Houses of Winton, Manticore, etc. are concerned. If the SEM doesn't arrive first to take the Mandarins out, I am sure that Theisman and cohorts will be glad to.

AFAIK no Haven systems have been attacked by the Sollies, thus the Republic would have no individual remit to attack the league, I assume the military alliance with the SEM proposed by Pritchard is a mutual defence treaty so along with the other members of the GA any attacks by the SLN would be covered.

The use of any RHN ships in offensive actions against the SLN before action by the SLN against RHN ships or Haven systems, (as opposed to the defensive actions by the GA fleets at Manticore) would be a political minefield which would be like giving the Mandarins home field advantage.

(sorry if this is a bit dis-jointed)

I suspect that each of the Mandarins individualy and in various combinations has a lot of people within the SL system and who opeate with the SL system (like transtellars) who would really want them dead and out of the way. Exile -where did they think they were going to retire to when/if the finaly "retired" from their current position? How are they going to get there? Who might be looking for them to fatal accidents on the way or shortly after they got there?

It is not like these people were beloved public faces, they were the entranced Sr. bureaucracy who clawed their way to the top of their several Bureaus by any means possible and made a lot of enemies on the way.

Even if the current set just resigned (letters posted AFTER they got to hyperspace leaving Earth) it is quite likely that somebody (other than Alignment) would take the oppertunity to kill them off "just because" of past problems.
Then there is the problem of not only who of the remaining members of the various Bureaus would move up, but what would they be able to do other than perhaps public acceptance "after investigation the information available" and agreeing that everybody had been manipulated - were launching investigations to find key people in the conspiracy- and announce they would agree to a cease-fire to allow negotiated settlement of the problems. Oh, yes, communication with the Navy may "take a while" because the SLN is spread over a lot of space and it is "possible" that there will continue to be incedents invovling people who haven't gotten the orders now going out.

How fast can some of the major members (and allied systems) in the SL put together realistic contingency plans and prep enough to move as blocks when the SL comes apart. You know, like very quiet conversations with BF/FF officers to station themselves in "our" Star Nation and become our "SDF"...fun times.

George J. Smith wrote:AFAIK no Haven systems have been attacked by the Sollies, thus the Republic would have no individual remit to attack the league, I assume the military alliance with the SEM proposed by Pritchard is a mutual defence treaty so along with the other members of the GA any attacks by the SLN would be covered.

The use of any RHN ships in offensive actions against the SLN before action by the SLN against RHN ships or Haven systems, (as opposed to the defensive actions by the GA fleets at Manticore) would be a political minefield which would be like giving the Mandarins home field advantage.

Mmm, if Fileretta had backed down, but then the SLN attacked Manticore again elsewhere I'd fully agree that it would be hard for Haven to justify domestically (or to system the GA want to encourage to leave the League) if Haven started opperating offensively against the SLN.

But at Manticore, while they were there to help defend Manticore, their ships were fired on by SLN units. (Sure, we know that was due to MAlign manipulation - not Filleretta intent; but the rest of the galaxy doesn't, and I'm not even sure if Manticore knows that (though I'm sure they suspect it)
Being attacked, even when supporting an Ally, is pretty universally seen as a Casus belli (reason for war)