Terms of Surrender (for the Mandarins)

Just finished re-reading ART, and something towards the end caught my attention. It was the discussion of the Mandarins post-Kingsford's raiding proposal, where they discussed the possibility of starting back-burner diplomatic talks with the GA to keep options open as they had begun to realize how screwed they were. My question is two fold - (1) would the GA seriously listen; and (2) what would their demands be? My stab at what the GA would demand:

Non-negotiable:
1- A full and complete apology and acceptance of fault for New Tuscany, Spindle, Manticore II, and Beowulf (Tsang).
2- A full and complete apology to all worlds under or previously under OFS oversight, including the publishing of records of what OFS did on each protectorate and trials for all living OFS governors, transstellar officials, and military officers who perpetuated atrocities (tried before a neutral court made up of GA appointees, an Andermani appointee, a Maya appointee, and former protectorate appointees). The disbandment of OFS and the turning over of all transtellar property (paid for at a steep discount over a couple decades via the new owners), with joint observers (including Solly officials in a minority role) to oversee the creation of new planetary constitutions. The SL will pay all costs in helping former protectorates undo the damage done.
3- A re-affirmation of the right to secede enshrined in the SL constitution. In fact, a complete re-affirmation of the basic SL constitution as written and not as practiced.
4- Third party investigations into SL and transtellar corruption made up in equal parts of 1/4 Core World appointees, 1/3 former Protectorate/Now Member appointees, 1/4 GA appointees, and 1/4 Protectorate appointees.

Negotiable:
1- Complete re-opening of the Wormholes taken or closed by the GA
2- Complete resumption of trade, including a potential reduction of junction fees as an incentive




Thoughts?

Erls wrote:Just finished re-reading ART, and something towards the end caught my attention. It was the discussion of the Mandarins post-Kingsford's raiding proposal, where they discussed the possibility of starting back-burner diplomatic talks with the GA to keep options open as they had begun to realize how screwed they were. My question is two fold - (1) would the GA seriously listen; and (2) what would their demands be? My stab at what the GA would demand:

Non-negotiable:
1- A full and complete apology and acceptance of fault for New Tuscany, Spindle, Manticore II, and Beowulf (Tsang).
2- A full and complete apology to all worlds under or previously under OFS oversight, including the publishing of records of what OFS did on each protectorate and trials for all living OFS governors, transstellar officials, and military officers who perpetuated atrocities (tried before a neutral court made up of GA appointees, an Andermani appointee, a Maya appointee, and former protectorate appointees). The disbandment of OFS and the turning over of all transtellar property (paid for at a steep discount over a couple decades via the new owners), with joint observers (including Solly officials in a minority role) to oversee the creation of new planetary constitutions. The SL will pay all costs in helping former protectorates undo the damage done.
3- A re-affirmation of the right to secede enshrined in the SL constitution. In fact, a complete re-affirmation of the basic SL constitution as written and not as practiced.
4- Third party investigations into SL and transtellar corruption made up in equal parts of 1/4 Core World appointees, 1/3 former Protectorate/Now Member appointees, 1/4 GA appointees, and 1/4 Protectorate appointees.

Negotiable:
1- Complete re-opening of the Wormholes taken or closed by the GA
2- Complete resumption of trade, including a potential reduction of junction fees as an incentive




Thoughts?

Anything less than dissolution of the League is just asking for trouble. If the GA offers this, and the League accepts it or vice versa and retains even a fraction of its membership 10 or 15 years down the road the League will go back and "renegotiate" the peace treaty. All those protectorates will end up in probably a worse situation than they already were and the GA would become part of those protectorates.


I would say 1,2 and 4 plus another one that states the League has to dissolve as an entity.

Problem is that even 100 core worlds can create a fleet that would overwhelm the GA in a decade or two. And what's worse, a negotiated dissolution of the League would be hard to enforce. Many of the core worlds might want to go their separate way any way but if forced it might strengthen their resolve to stick together.

Sigs wrote:Problem is that even 100 core worlds can create a fleet that would overwhelm the GA in a decade or two. And what's worse, a negotiated dissolution of the League would be hard to enforce. Many of the core worlds might want to go their separate way any way but if forced it might strengthen their resolve to stick together.

An actual alliance between Haven, Manticore and the Andis is not something that is likely to last, there are too many points of friction. So you'd end up with 20+ different star nations, all of which are as or more powerful than Manticore, each with a powerful military and all of which are annoyed at Manticore for getting involved with their internal matters. The verge is now filled with failed states roughly comparable to Yemen, Somalia and Zimbabwe, except with star ships, mixed with a few successful states - generally known as the warlords and a large number that resemble the Confederacy, except without the respect for the law and business ethics that Silesia was renown for. Maybe its just me, but I think this isn't exactly a great advance.

Erls wrote:Just finished re-reading ART, and something towards the end caught my attention. It was the discussion of the Mandarins post-Kingsford's raiding proposal, where they discussed the possibility of starting back-burner diplomatic talks with the GA to keep options open as they had begun to realize how screwed they were. My question is two fold - (1) would the GA seriously listen; and (2) what would their demands be? My stab at what the GA would demand:

...


Thoughts?

I think at this point, the Mandarins are irrelevant to the GA in terms of negotiating a peace treaty. Manticore, and presumably the GA, is working on the premise that they need to conclude separate bi-lateral peace treaties with each member of the League -- effectively treating the Solarian League Bureaucracy as irrelevant because it doesn't represent the electorate of the League members.

The one thing the GA must avoid under all circumstances is to leave the door open for a revanchist movement intent on rebuilding the League. A forcible dissolution of the League by putting a gun to the Mandarin's collective heads is not in the GA's best interest; What they want is to show the SL's member nations that they're better off in a loose alliance with the GA than they would be under the SL.

In essence, the League must be shown to be unable to perform its stated mission so that it is dissolved by the will of its member states rather than being destroyed from without.

The last thing the Grand Alliance, (GA) or Manticore wants to do is put the Mandarins into a corner. Or for that matter even greatly frightening or angering them. The Sollie behemoth is exactly that; the classic definition of "The Sleeping Giant".

An understanding or perhaps a gentleman's agreement between all parties would be much more desirable than a shooting war which the GA has no hope of ever winning over the years. Waging peace is much better and cheaper than shooting.

HB of CJ wrote:The last thing the Grand Alliance, (GA) or Manticore wants to do is put the Mandarins into a corner. Or for that matter even greatly frightening or angering them. The Sollie behemoth is exactly that; the classic definition of "The Sleeping Giant".

An understanding or perhaps a gentleman's agreement between all parties would be much more desirable than a shooting war which the GA has no hope of ever winning over the years. Waging peace is much better and cheaper than shooting.

Would you trust the Mandarins to uphold long term any agreement? They know how the worlds in the verge are being treated by the OFS and its business partners.

Offer the same deal the Silesians got. Buy the Mandarins out, annex the League.

This guarantees the League will fall apart... especially if its new rulers explictly state that secession is permitted, as guaranteed in the League Constitution(Silesia did not permit secession).

I don't think it'll be as cheap as Silesia was though.

I don't know about buying the Mandarins out. Perhaps you would let them leave - after accepting the blame for Spindle, 2nd Manticore and perhaps now a couple of things with Beowulf but there are too many people in too many places that brought this about.
Just promising not to hunt them down and kill them (not saying anything about even attempting to keep others within and without the SL from hunting them down and killing them) might be the best IF you can get admission that they and the League were complicit in the events leading up to 2nd Manticore.
Big problem is unraveling the bureaucracy between OFS, SLN and the various Commissions and Agencies (like Treasury, Public Education, Trade and soforth. Cutting all the systems in the SL plus Protectorates loose will be "interesting" even if it isn't complicated by SLN officers and OFS people setting up their own little empires. Maya is going to do that and although Manticore isn't all that sure about Berogose (spelling) his activities with Torch and Erwhon but the rest of the OFS controlled or those for which they have provided the support for either local tyrants or Transtellars to control are going to be a true problem.
PROBABLY most of the present SL Member worlds can sort out much of the administrative stuff and run their own shops. The problems come when they start using intimidation, political manipulation and other things to take over or just compel other systems to do what they want - with or without the use of former SLN ships since many may have practical SDFs which can be the start of their larger fleets.
What to do with the SLN -both Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet is still a question. Getting them attached to some of the soon to be new successor states is actually better than letting them just go since at least they will be under( if not command then attached for logistics and support) some "civilian" oversight and MAY work better as having something to both call home and defend.

One thing that has surprised me about the Mandarins is their complete unwillingness to support the "it's the Mesan Alignment's fault" line. Whether they believe it or not, it doesn't matter. They will advocate whatever they feel is in their best interests.

It seems to me that the Mandarins saying "We're sorry, our Navy was tricked by the Evil Mesans, let's fight them together instead of fighting each other" would be one approach by them to get out of this mess - but they seem very unwilling to take that approach.

-- Bob G