How solid is the Manticoran strategy?

Even if we ignore the MA, and if we give the Mandarins at least one brain between the bunch of them we still have the problem of Manticore knowing exactly how this will play out.

Making peace and leaving the League relatively intact means that the SLN will be rebuild and reorganized and strengthened. So sooner or later Manticore and it's allies will get a visit by the SLN and they may will not have a technological advantage to help them. So they will be conquered even if they maintain war footing in the meantime.

On the other hand, if the League and the GA were to start negotiating Manticore should present terms so severe that would guarantee their rejection. If the Mandarins played it right they can make the GA look like the warmongers but at the end of the day if the choice is live and have everyone hate you or die as a nation and be friends with everyone I know which one I would choose.

And this whole thing is made more complicated by the MA. It may come to a situation where the MA may decide that propping up the League would be advantageous especially if the GA turns out to be much harder to kill than the MA imagined. So it's not guaranteed that the MA will be acting against the League once they see the GA's bite.

Easy answer... Give a single small country record the equivalent of the current USN carrier forces, the Panama and Suez canals, and then they take over the Bosphorous and the Sea of Japan. Plus the immediate ocean around their own country.

The US is 5000 miles away from any choke point and disinterested, and nukes are the equivalent of an Eridani Edict violation. Just for kicks and giggles, let's make it Denmark instead of Britain.

How long before the Danes are top dogs?

AKA hell yes, the Manticoran strategy is solid. They control the choke points.

Sigs said it. Manticore certainly didn't want this war, but now that it's here the GA will most definitely not be satisfied with anything less than the complete dissolution of the League, the active suppression of slavery, the liberation of the Protectorates, and the demonstrable cessation of any and all neocolonial exploitation of the Verge as the final prize of any peace talks, should the mandarins - or God forbid, the Federal Assembly - discover the rationality and courage to propose such.

Nico wrote:Sigs said it. Manticore certainly didn't want this war, but now that it's here the GA will most definitely not be satisfied with anything less than the complete dissolution of the League, the active suppression of slavery, the liberation of the Protectorates, and the demonstrable cessation of any and all neocolonial exploitation of the Verge as the final prize of any peace talks, should the mandarins - or God forbid, the Federal Assembly - discover the rationality and courage to propose such.

Agreed except they're not after complete dissolution. What they want is probably a bunch of Silesia, Maya, or Talbott size chunks that are well managed, friendly trading partners.

Oh, and the MAlign rough and splintery wooden stake through it's heart, never wake the vampire again dead dead dead.

SharkHunter wrote:

Nico wrote:Sigs said it. Manticore certainly didn't want this war, but now that it's here the GA will most definitely not be satisfied with anything less than the complete dissolution of the League, the active suppression of slavery, the liberation of the Protectorates, and the demonstrable cessation of any and all neocolonial exploitation of the Verge as the final prize of any peace talks, should the mandarins - or God forbid, the Federal Assembly - discover the rationality and courage to propose such.

Agreed except they're not after complete dissolution. What they want is probably a bunch of Silesia, Maya, or Talbott size chunks that are well managed, friendly trading partners.

Oh, and the MAlign rough and splintery wooden stake through it's heart, never wake the vampire again dead dead dead.

Well, yeah. We're probably looking at an end goal of 500 or so successor states in the League proper alone. The problem is that there is no way that the Grand Alliance, even with the inclusion of Haven and Beowulf (possibly with a significant number of her daughter colonies) can ensure that the League's end immediately leads to the establishment of 'well managed, friendly' successor states.

That will probably be the likely outcome within the immediate sphere of influence of the GA's members as well as those former League members that have strong system defence forces of their own. However, that covers but a small part of human space. Everywhere else will likely experience a period of tremendous turmoil as the political galaxy sorts itself out, which, depending on circumstances, might take anything from months to decades.

That does not even take into account the former Protectorates and the situation in the Verge. Chaos is the forecast for years to come, with only a few pockets of relative calm.

Nico wrote:Well, yeah. We're probably looking at an end goal of 500 or so successor states in the League proper alone. The problem is that there is no way that the Grand Alliance, even with the inclusion of Haven and Beowulf (possibly with a significant number of her daughter colonies) can ensure that the League's end immediately leads to the establishment of 'well managed, friendly' successor states.

That will probably be the likely outcome within the immediate sphere of influence of the GA's members as well as those former League members that have strong system defence forces of their own. However, that covers but a small part of human space. Everywhere else will likely experience a period of tremendous turmoil as the political galaxy sorts itself out, which, depending on circumstances, might take anything from months to decades.

That does not even take into account the former Protectorates and the situation in the Verge. Chaos is the forecast for years to come, with only a few pockets of relative calm.

They do not have all to be friendly to the GA. They just will not be able to focus on the GA without having to worry that one of their neighbors may be on friendly terms with the GA and hit them from behind. Or simply to take advantage of their distraction.

pnakasone wrote:

Nico wrote:Well, yeah. We're probably looking at an end goal of 500 or so successor states in the League proper alone. The problem is that there is no way that the Grand Alliance, even with the inclusion of Haven and Beowulf (possibly with a significant number of her daughter colonies) can ensure that the League's end immediately leads to the establishment of 'well managed, friendly' successor states.

That will probably be the likely outcome within the immediate sphere of influence of the GA's members as well as those former League members that have strong system defence forces of their own. However, that covers but a small part of human space. Everywhere else will likely experience a period of tremendous turmoil as the political galaxy sorts itself out, which, depending on circumstances, might take anything from months to decades.

That does not even take into account the former Protectorates and the situation in the Verge. Chaos is the forecast for years to come, with only a few pockets of relative calm.

They do not have all to be friendly to the GA. They just will not be able to focus on the GA without having to worry that one of their neighbors may be on friendly terms with the GA and hit them from behind. Or simply to take advantage of their distraction.

I think that once the dust settles and a more or less orderly galaxy emerges from the coming upheaval we'll see an infinitely more complex political environment than anything that's ever gone before. Some of the new states will be friendly towards the GA member states, some will be hostile, and others will be so distracted by other, more local concerns and interests that they'll be indifferent towards the GA.

Because of the contextual environment of the series we the readers are inclined to perceive the Honorverse from a Manticoran perspective, as if Manticore and her partners and allies are the center of human space and everything else revolves around them.

Yet this can be no further from the truth. It is but one of a multitude of stories that are occurring at the same time - it just happens to be the one being told and therefor the one about which we know the most. We should remember all those other stories taking place in the background, each of which is just as important to the big picture and the outcome of which will to some extent or another have an impact on the larger picture.

What we can be sure of is that, even if that story is never told, the Honorverse will be a far more dynamic place in the future, with endlessly shifting alliances and interconnections. The GA polities will likely hold a preeminent position for some time to come, because of their central role in creating that outcome, but that won't last forever either. What is important is that the stagnating, strangling influence of the League (and its MAllign puppetmaster) will have been destroyed.

I agree that Manticore doen't have to have all of the successor states (over the next 20 to 30 years) being "friendly" to it, they just don't have to be activly aggressive or beligerent againt the GA.
Manticore isn't going to try and police the formation of the sucessor states. Oddly enough, that is very much what the RF looks like it is intended to do. Manticore (and now Haven and friends) really only want Star Nations that will engage in peaceable trade with it and the GA doesn't intend to act as a police force.
On the other hand, any sucessor state that starts screwing with Manticore or allied though the GA or places like Torch merchant shipping is going to get a smart dose or reality about screwing directly with Manticore. It is VERY likely that such a successor state is going to recive a visit from a RMN or composit GA force of "appropriate" size that will "have a conversation" and attempt to clarify exactly how bad the results will be for screwing with Manticore/Haven/ etc merchant shipping. At the very least, Manticore may "find it nessisary" to provide escorts into said sucessor state's claimed space to "deal" with "pirates and other problems" which could lead to a sharp reduction is said sucessor states Navy through "averse response to criminal and uncivilized behavior" (Manticore destroys enough of the offening ships who attempt to take merchant shipping or try to force the RMN to stay out of their space).

Shall we say that there are rules and if you don't want to abide by them for the conduct of open commerce, then 1st RMN breaks you Navy and then GA shipping doesn't call on any of your systems untill you guarantee that the GA merchant shipping will be protected.

Oh, yes, you want to charge outrageous fees, fine, the GA shipping just won't go to where you are AND your own flagged ships are going to pay a similar premium to use any RMN or GA controlled wormhole.....sticky isn't it?

--snipping--

--> well, quotes condensed... -->

Sigs said it. Manticore certainly didn't want this war, but now that it's here the GA will most definitely not be satisfied with anything less than the complete dissolution of the League, the active suppression of slavery, the liberation of the Protectorates, and the demonstrable cessation of any and all neocolonial exploitation of the Verge as the final prize of any peace talks, should the mandarins - or God forbid, the Federal Assembly - discover the rationality and courage to propose such....
--- Agreed except they're not after complete dissolution. What they want is probably a bunch of Silesia, Maya, or Talbott size chunks that are well managed, friendly trading partners.

Oh, and the MAlign rough and splintery wooden stake through it's heart, never wake the vampire again dead dead dead...

...Well, yeah. We're probably looking at an end goal of 500 or so successor states in the League proper alone. The problem is that there is no way that the Grand Alliance, even with the inclusion of Haven and Beowulf (possibly with a significant number of her daughter colonies) can ensure that the League's end immediately leads to the establishment of 'well managed, friendly' successor states.

Actually, I'm thinking that Manticore would prefer maybe up to about 50 successor states, but "balanced states".

The equivalent would be something like this -- and let's pretend that each area I mention has equally valuable trading resources: South half of Africa, North half, Desert Africa, Middle East, Middle Balkans, the 'stan's, Southeast Indian Ocean, Malay and Indonesia, Philipines but stabilized, Southeast Asia Polynesia, South Central America to go with the US, EU, British Commonwealths, and no malignant China, Russia, Iran on the horizons. Plus the currently stable big 8 ish. entities vs. the +170 country mess we have now. Which would you prefer?

So in the Honorverse you'd have the Republic of Haven, the SEM and Grayson, the Andermani, Maya, the Judean League, the Madras sector under the House of Thomas "dot dot dot", equivalencies probably to the current sectors, but without the transtellars, Mesan, and bureaucratic corruption.

SharkHunter wrote:--snipping--

--> well, quotes condensed... -->

Sigs said it. Manticore certainly didn't want this war, but now that it's here the GA will most definitely not be satisfied with anything less than the complete dissolution of the League, the active suppression of slavery, the liberation of the Protectorates, and the demonstrable cessation of any and all neocolonial exploitation of the Verge as the final prize of any peace talks, should the mandarins - or God forbid, the Federal Assembly - discover the rationality and courage to propose such....
--- Agreed except they're not after complete dissolution. What they want is probably a bunch of Silesia, Maya, or Talbott size chunks that are well managed, friendly trading partners.

Oh, and the MAlign rough and splintery wooden stake through it's heart, never wake the vampire again dead dead dead...

...Well, yeah. We're probably looking at an end goal of 500 or so successor states in the League proper alone. The problem is that there is no way that the Grand Alliance, even with the inclusion of Haven and Beowulf (possibly with a significant number of her daughter colonies) can ensure that the League's end immediately leads to the establishment of 'well managed, friendly' successor states.

Actually, I'm thinking that Manticore would prefer maybe up to about 50 successor states, but "balanced states".

The equivalent would be something like this -- and let's pretend that each area I mention has equally valuable trading resources: South half of Africa, North half, Desert Africa, Middle East, Middle Balkans, the 'stan's, Southeast Indian Ocean, Malay and Indonesia, Philipines but stabilized, Southeast Asia Polynesia, South Central America to go with the US, EU, British Commonwealths, and no malignant China, Russia, Iran on the horizons. Plus the currently stable big 8 ish. entities vs. the +170 country mess we have now. Which would you prefer?

So in the Honorverse you'd have the Republic of Haven, the SEM and Grayson, the Andermani, Maya, the Judean League, the Madras sector under the House of Thomas "dot dot dot", equivalencies probably to the current sectors, but without the transtellars, Mesan, and bureaucratic corru

I do not agree with the number you mentioned, for several reasons. The League has about 2000 full members and who knows how many worlds in the Protectorates.

Honor's vision that she sold to the assembled leaders of what would become the GA was to break the League up into howsoever many managable successor states. One would assume that she meant 'managable' as in not being able to threaten, first, Manticore, and second, any other member of the GA, at any point in the immediate-to-medium term future.

At the same time I think we're safe to assume that, given how savvy she's proven to be politically, Honor is also wise enough to understand and accept that to force completely disparate or mutually-hostile worlds together under one banner based only on geographic proximity will cause far more problems than it would solve.

Also, given that even though we can expect serious League-wide turmoil over the next few years many of the Core worlds will remain economic powerhouses with very advanced research and development establishments, it would be a grave risk to allow too many such worlds to band together and pool their resources.

As such, we can then assume that chunks of forty or fifty worlds apiece would not serve the managability goal. Even confederations of twenty or so Core worlds apiece would stretch the GA's ability to manage their threat potential in the future, given the size of their populations and their economic power or potential power.

But let's say twenty maximum per Core world confederation. That means 100 confederations minimum. However, that does not take into account that many Core worlds would choose to either go it alone or would opt for much smaller unions. Also, I think it's safe to assume that given the Protectorate worlds' experience with the excesses of imposed authority most would reject any form of collective government and would opt for complete independence. Given all of that, I think my estimate of 500 or so successor states might even be on the low side.