How solid is the Manticoran strategy?

Here are two scenarios; the SL decides to change tactics and much like the 60's Hanoi government they publicly announce their intent to negotiate peace with Manticore and NOTIFY ALL LEAGUE MEMBERS (or at least those relevant parts of the SL periphery) of this intent thereby subverting or freezing any campaigns of OPEN hostilities by the GA. The second scenario isn't as much about tactics as it is about costs of continued hostilities but the result is the same and the SL publicly announces their intent to negotiate peace with Manticore. How does Manticore react? Do they pretend to negotiate? Do they not negotiate? Or do they in fact HAVE to negotiate even though knowing this throws a wrench into their SL strategy of divide and negotiated peace treaties with individual polities? Might this scenario have the unintended effect of Manticore being maneuvered into "showing their hand" and thus exposing their long term strategy to the SL leaders?

npadln wrote:Here are two scenarios; the SL decides to change tactics and much like the 60's Hanoi government they publicly announce their intent to negotiate peace with Manticore and NOTIFY ALL LEAGUE MEMBERS (or at least those relevant parts of the SL periphery) of this intent thereby subverting or freezing any campaigns of OPEN hostilities by the GA. The second scenario isn't as much about tactics as it is about costs of continued hostilities but the result is the same and the SL publicly announces their intent to negotiate peace with Manticore. How does Manticore react? Do they pretend to negotiate? Do they not negotiate? Or do they in fact HAVE to negotiate even though knowing this throws a wrench into their SL strategy of divide and negotiated peace treaties with individual polities? Might this scenario have the unintended effect of Manticore being maneuvered into "showing their hand" and thus exposing their long term strategy to the SL leaders?

To cite a real world example, after the Armistice of 11th November 1918 the Royal Navy maintained the blockade of Germany until after the Treaty of Versailles was signed in June 1919. In Manticore's case they could still maintain control of the wormholes they have already seized & keep the Manticore Wormhole Junction closed as well as their freighters withdrawn from Solarian Space whilst the Solarian League negotiates. If the Solarian League does not negotiate in good faith then the onus for the failure falls on them & the GA can resume combat operations.

Besides how can they negotiate Peace with Manticore when they have not gotten around to declaring War?

The whole reason the Mandarins feel compelled to engage in hostilities is that they don't want to appear weak to the Verge and restive elements in the Shell. If they open negotiations, it's clearly from a position of weakness. The last thing they want is more elements in the Verge think they can defy the League and survive.

They'd start loosing verge systems pretty quick. Followed by Maya and then one or two of the RF systems.

From the Malign's POV it would be better if they did, then the Malign could spend some time taking over the Manticoran crown and GA governments.

But they wont.

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Duckk wrote:The whole reason the Mandarins feel compelled to engage in hostilities is that they don't want to appear weak to the Verge and restive elements in the Shell. If they open negotiations, it's clearly from a position of weakness. The last thing they want is more elements in the Verge think they can defy the League and survive.

All that and complicated by Manticore having the inside loop for information and propaganda. The Mandarins can control information on Earth and possible a few central core worlds, but Manticore can reach most of the rest of the League and Verge faster than any Mandarin controlled news agency.

Another complication for the Mandarins is that some of the News agencies they have access to include MAlign agents. That's going to distort whatever spin the Mandarins try to put on things.

Rincewind wrote:
To cite a real world example, after the Armistice of 11th November 1918 the Royal Navy maintained the blockade of Germany until after the Treaty of Versailles was signed in June 1919. In Manticore's case they could still maintain control of the wormholes they have already seized & keep the Manticore Wormhole Junction closed as well as their freighters withdrawn from Solarian Space whilst the Solarian League negotiates. If the Solarian League does not negotiate in good faith then the onus for the failure falls on them & the GA can resume combat operations.

Besides how can they negotiate Peace with Manticore when they have not gotten around to declaring War?

The SEM could try the High Ridge strategy, but I feel compelled to point out how that ended last time.

One big issue is lag time of communications. It can take months before every one can be notified of any change of stance or policy.

Rincewind wrote:
To cite a real world example, after the Armistice of 11th November 1918 the Royal Navy maintained the blockade of Germany until after the Treaty of Versailles was signed in June 1919. In Manticore's case they could still maintain control of the wormholes they have already seized & keep the Manticore Wormhole Junction closed as well as their freighters withdrawn from Solarian Space whilst the Solarian League negotiates. If the Solarian League does not negotiate in good faith then the onus for the failure falls on them & the GA can resume combat operations.

Besides how can they negotiate Peace with Manticore when they have not gotten around to declaring War?

I don't believe the Vietnam war was ever a "declared" war and yet that didn't stop peace negotiations; funny how politicians can get around such niceties. And on that same note of political machinations and duplicity what if the SL simply agrees to "Peace in our time!" thus giving the "skirmish" "official closure" only to.... bide their time. My point is that there would be a lot of political posturing and maneuvering by both sides and I am wondering if that would have the effect of flushing out for the SL, Manticore's REAL strategy. What would the ramifications be for that, with the Shell and Verge suddenly having more considered significance than originally thought? Or is the SL already aware and just don't believe any such strategy by Manticore's is viable?

Remember that it doesn't matter what the Mandarins do. The MAlign wants to break up the SL, and their plans were in place long before they thought they had Manticore to deal with. In fact, they tried to take Manticore out of the situation with Oyster Bay.

Playing for time isn't going to work: the MAlign isn't going to let it work.

The Mandarins are basically in a can't win position; the only way they can avoid total disaster is to accept that they've lost the protectorates, the Verge, most of the Shell and parts of the Core, and try to put what's left together into a coherent whole. Lotsa luck with that, but it's their only "not total disaster" option.

Duckk wrote:The whole reason the Mandarins feel compelled to engage in hostilities is that they don't want to appear weak to the Verge and restive elements in the Shell. If they open negotiations, it's clearly from a position of weakness. The last thing they want is more elements in the Verge think they can defy the League and survive.

Like Real World Politics, the League is probably mediating, arguing, or negotiating 1000s of disputes with it's neighbors. It has relied on being the 800 pound gorilla as it's main negotiating tactic for centuries - everything is settled in a manner in which the SL gets what they want, independent of how it looks from the outside. If that tactic goes away - or the illusion is seen through, 100s of individual fires will start which the SL won't have the capability in place to deal with.

So to give the appearance of caving in to someone's demands, even someone as powerful and influential as the SEM, is a dangerous precedent. And because they didn't take care of this "properly" when the first parts of the incident happened, their hand was forced to deal with the issue strongly, or else the barbarians will be at the gate.