All out Warfare Against the Sollies

Kytheros wrote:It depends on how one defines "all out warfare".

If you're willing to accept total war - and all the civilian casualties that implies, the GA could, in theory, eliminate the League as a functioning entity by destroying planetary populations wholesale. Unfortunately, once you start that path, you have to completely finish it - and that would involve killing off a rather massive percentage of the entire human race, and putting picket forces in the formerly inhabited systems for some time to get anyone who was in transit between systems. Also, once you start that path, you have to be ever-watchful for somebody trying something similar against you, whether for revenge or because they just don't like you.
For some reason, I rather doubt that the GA is going to take that option.


The 'best' option that Manticore and the GA has is to break the League into a series of much smaller successor states without inspiring a lasting hatred of Manticore and the GA that could lead to widespread revanchist tendencies.
And, frankly, things have gone far enough that Manticore and the GA has to break up the League, no matter what the League and the Mandarins do, as a survival imperative - leaving the League intact now means that in a couple decades at most, the League can do the same sort of thing to Manticore and the GA that Theisman and Haven did to Manticore with Bolthole and Operation Thunderbolt, only on a larger and more devastating scale.

I would define the best stratagy as warfare against only the SLN. Under no circumstances should any civilian structure be touched, and that includes shipyards building civilian ships.

To give you an example, if North Korea declares war against the US, and destroys a bunch of US warships in Seoul harbor, there is a chance that South Korea might not declare war. If North Korea destroyed an army base and thousands of south Koreans die, nothing will stop south Korea from joining the fight.

pnakasone wrote:I think we have to just disagree on this. I do not see it as a collapse the way you do. It is going to hurt majorly but Manticore will recover given time.

Lets say the US went to war with all of Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and India, with our allies being Canada and Israel. (The rest of the world is neutral.) Then someone blows up every factory in the US and Israel at 10am local on a Tuesday, with a kg of TNT per square foot.

Do you think Intel will make their next bond payment? How about Ford and Caterpillar? How about the one after that?

What would be the impact on the US economy? With the US shut out of every financial market, will there be a noticeable impact on the profits of Goldman Sachs and Citbank?

Will this have a positive or negative impact on taxes collected? How about employment? US exports?

Would you consider a US bond to be more or less risky than it was before this happened?

Will Airbus or Boeing sell more airplanes over the next 2 years? Given the lack of spare parts and engines for Boeing aircraft, will any still be flying in 2 years?

It's a catastrophic disaster whose second and third order effects will be worse.

kzt wrote:

pnakasone wrote:I do not see a collapse of the economy of Manticore what is gone is the easy to access money of the junction traffic revenue. For all practical purposes that was free money for the government.

They have lost the vast majority of the junction traffic.

This means all the people who worked at the junction to support the vast merchant traffic (freight forwarders, entertainment) are mostly unemployed and a bunch of the firms that did this are now bankrupt. The repair facilities and the repair people will find profitable work, so there is that.

They have lost all the trade with the League, which constitutes the majority of the humans and the vast majority of the wealth in the Honorverse. So those people who made their living trading with the League are unemployed and those firms that didn't go bankrupt are not paying much in taxes. (David's explanation that this doesn't really matter would be like me claiming that I can just increase US trade with Ghana and Sudan to make for for my proposed ban on trade with Germany and Japan.)

This means no financial transaction either. So a vast drop in money raked off of these. The insurance companies are probably bankrupt, as they get to pay off 5 million life insurance policies in one day. This will have interesting second order effects I'm sure.

The fleets of freighters mostly have a cargo that they are legally required to deliver within a certain timeline or they will forfeit their enormous surety bond. Which they have blown. The typical freighter cost billion of $M and hence has to make tens of millions of $M per month to pay off the note on the ship, pay the crew, and maintain the ships. Once their surety bond is confiscated by their last customer and they have no money coming in they are pretty much out of business. Large firms probably also have raised money via bonds and other financial instruments and they are not going to be making their scheduled payments on them.

They have lost all the manufacturing. All those companies owe all sorts of money to suppliers, survivors/estates, and they also have legally binding commitments to ship goods that they have broken. In addition, they have no method of paying back financial instruments like bonds they have sold that were based on the idea that they would make money. So they are all bankrupt in addition to mostly vaporized.

All the people who made money shipping manufactured goods are out of business, though most of them are probably dead.

All the people who supported manufacturing, like the 300 million belters who did asteroid mining, are out of work as their is no need for them to be supping tens of millions of tons of raw material per week to the non-existent factories.

I think that pretty much covers all the sources of income that Manticore has been said to have.

The cynical insurance companies will have "Act of War" clauses which will insulate them from the burden of paying out those 5M+ claims

kzt wrote:Lets say the US went to war with all of Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and India, with our allies being Canada and Israel. (The rest of the world is neutral.) Then someone blows up every factory in the US and Israel at 10am local on a Tuesday, with a kg of TNT per square foot.

Do you think Intel will make their next bond payment? How about Ford and Caterpillar? How about the one after that?

Given where Intel's fabs are located and the global supply chains that Ford and Caterpillar rely on I'm pretty sure in that scenario they'd fail their next bond payment whether or not every factory in the US and Israel disappeared...

Erls wrote:As the title suggests.. This is a thought exercise about what the GA would do if the were prepared to wage all-out war against the Sollies. Think about Winston and Pritchett (and Anderman) on an all out warpath wanting nothing but blood and destruction among the core worlds of the SL. How would this transpire - what would happen?

M<y take:
1- The GA would have 7-8 raiding fleets who were each given 3-6 'core SL worlds' to take out. Each fleet would be comprised of, roughly speaking: 50 SD(P)s [Apollo capable], 1 squad CLAC, 2 squad BC, 2 squad Heavy Cruiser, 3 squad Destroyers/Light Cruisers, 4-6 Ammo ships packed full of Apollo pods (and some ancillary missiles for the light combatants in smaller numbers).
2- Commanders would be: Harrington (1st GA Fleet), Henke (2nd GA fleet), Tourville (3rd GA fleet), Yu (4th GA fleet), Rabenstrange (5th GA fleet), Truman (6th GA fleet), and Who Else?
3- Each fleet would have 3-6 targets to hit among the 'core SL' worlds. They would fly in, pound any naval unit and installation to dust via Apollo at long range, and then move in close to energy range to wreck every space-facility present. Upon completion of that, they would leave the system for the next.

My second question: If the GA did this - pursued total war against the SL - how long would it be until the SL sued for peace OR acquired the capability to fight back? Assuming it will take 2-3 years for the SL to acquire basic MDM/FTL/Pod tech and start producing units, and then another 2-3 years from there to acquire Apollo tech and start producing units, we're looking at almost 10 T-years until the SL could field units capable of matching current generation GA tech. And, the GA won't be standing still - they'll be improving. So, is it theoretically possible for the GA to hammer the SL into submission and get their core [the strongest, richest, etc] worlds to join the GA and completely forget about the GA before the size of the GA crushes the GA?

In regard to you force estimate, I think 50 SD(P)s is massive overkill for the vast majority of League worlds. Even *without* Apollo. Currently a SD(P) with MDMs can easily engage and defeat 5 to 10 old style SDs. Possibly more if they can hold the range open and fire controlled missile salvos from a range at which the old style SDs can't even return fire.

So to really need the firepower of 50 SD(P)s you'd have to be attacking a target protected by several hundred old style SDs. And I think the only SL worlds with that kind of strength are the few that have a major fleet base. Based on this, I think if they have to conduct an all out war against the SL the Grand Alliance could further divide their forces and hit more targets. Maybe 2 or 3 large fleets along the lines you suggest to hit the systems with a major fleet base and 10 or 12 smaller forces with something like 20 SD(p)s to hit other targets.

The financial fallout from Oyster Bay is going to be massive. Many, likely all, of the companies who had their operations and manufacturing on the Manticorian space stations etc would have had insurance against damages etc. The problem with "acts of war" clauses run to the decision about what is an act-of-war and what exactly went on with Oyster Bay. At this point, it was an attack but the culprits have not exactly been nailed down. Getting the insurance companies to pay out is going to be sticky. Haupman Cartel is going to be a major player in the "discussions" with the insurance companies and would't that make interesting reading.

All those MMM freighters ae going to have problems even if Manticore covers the penalties and related charges for requiring them to return to Manticore space. They still have to make the payments on their financing (at least ships mortgages and other loans) plus crew expenses, ongoing maintenance and keeping them operational -if in standby/parking mode- somewhere in the Manticore Home System.

The Manticore Government can probably lean on the local/regional insurance companies to continue to provide insurance for the ships and I can imagine the conversations the government's attornies will be having with the various lenders & insurance companies. It runs about like this.
The Government acted under Section xxxx of the Legal Code and under the War Powers acts. We (the government) came to the decision, after due and careful deliberation and study, that we were -if not exactly then but would shortly be- in a defacto state of war with the Solarian League and moved to protect our Citizens. Part of that was the compulsary recall to Manticoian controlled space of all Manticore flagged or owned private and commercial vessels to protect them from destruction or seizing by the SLN, OFS or any of the many segments of the SL buracracy which could impound or seize said vessels. That includes Systems under the "Protection" and other influences of OFS.
Had we not acted to recall the vessels and they had been seized or destroyed, they, the cargos, and their crews and any passengers would have been destroyed or detained by the SL. You would have no opportunity whatsoever to recover the destroyed assets (or contents) nor any reasonaable chance of recovering any purely seized asset as it would most likely confiscated by one of the SL's buracracies and sold as a prize or as seized assets of a beligernt power. So.....we got (most of ) them back to where you didn't get hit with all sorts of loss claims and they are still capable of commercial operations.
You REALLY SHOULD make some "reasonable" accomodations (see the ideas we "found on the internet" about something like this) to the financing terms till this gets sorted out and the ships can get back into profitable operations. Should you find it not possible, the goverenment is going to be REALLY REALLY ANNOYED and most likely contimplate addressing the problem by providing some "alternatives" to funding of commercial shipping vessels. Oh, yes, we are well aware of the schedules of "values" that might be applied should said vessels be seized for inability to meet debt service and IF you forclose on said vessels it could be that you may be selling them back to the original owners at that "loss" valuation AND will be required to write off the difference to the original financing. We just happen to have a brand new (and very large) crop of newly hired examiners for the financial oversight agencies dealing with financing, insurance, and other business areas and they need work so we will be looking to send them out into the field with a very detailed set of instructions about what to look for and what penalties to apply to grevious and predatory lending and insurance practices.
We were never here and we didn't have this conversation......

Brigade XO wrote:The financial fallout from Oyster Bay is going to be massive. Many, likely all, of the companies who had their operations and manufacturing on the Manticorian space stations etc would have had insurance against damages etc. The problem with "acts of war" clauses run to the decision about what is an act-of-war and what exactly went on with Oyster Bay. At this point, it was an attack but the culprits have not exactly been nailed down. Getting the insurance companies to pay out is going to be sticky. Haupman Cartel is going to be a major player in the "discussions" with the insurance companies and would't that make interesting reading.

All those MMM freighters ae going to have problems even if Manticore covers the penalties and related charges for requiring them to return to Manticore space. They still have to make the payments on their financing (at least ships mortgages and other loans) plus crew expenses, ongoing maintenance and keeping them operational -if in standby/parking mode- somewhere in the Manticore Home System.

The Manticore Government can probably lean on the local/regional insurance companies to continue to provide insurance for the ships and I can imagine the conversations the government's attornies will be having with the various lenders & insurance companies. It runs about like this.
The Government acted under Section xxxx of the Legal Code and under the War Powers acts. We (the government) came to the decision, after due and careful deliberation and study, that we were -if not exactly then but would shortly be- in a defacto state of war with the Solarian League and moved to protect our Citizens. Part of that was the compulsary recall to Manticoian controlled space of all Manticore flagged or owned private and commercial vessels to protect them from destruction or seizing by the SLN, OFS or any of the many segments of the SL buracracy which could impound or seize said vessels. That includes Systems under the "Protection" and other influences of OFS.
Had we not acted to recall the vessels and they had been seized or destroyed, they, the cargos, and their crews and any passengers would have been destroyed or detained by the SL. You would have no opportunity whatsoever to recover the destroyed assets (or contents) nor any reasonaable chance of recovering any purely seized asset as it would most likely confiscated by one of the SL's buracracies and sold as a prize or as seized assets of a beligernt power. So.....we got (most of ) them back to where you didn't get hit with all sorts of loss claims and they are still capable of commercial operations.
You REALLY SHOULD make some "reasonable" accomodations (see the ideas we "found on the internet" about something like this) to the financing terms till this gets sorted out and the ships can get back into profitable operations. Should you find it not possible, the goverenment is going to be REALLY REALLY ANNOYED and most likely contimplate addressing the problem by providing some "alternatives" to funding of commercial shipping vessels. Oh, yes, we are well aware of the schedules of "values" that might be applied should said vessels be seized for inability to meet debt service and IF you forclose on said vessels it could be that you may be selling them back to the original owners at that "loss" valuation AND will be required to write off the difference to the original financing. We just happen to have a brand new (and very large) crop of newly hired examiners for the financial oversight agencies dealing with financing, insurance, and other business areas and they need work so we will be looking to send them out into the field with a very detailed set of instructions about what to look for and what penalties to apply to grevious and predatory lending and insurance practices.
We were never here and we didn't have this conversation......

Oh, this is sooooooooooo funny!!!!!!!

And so very, very true, since this is the kind of thing representative governments do. Which makes it hilarious to read.

David once said that the value of the stations was several years of gross system product. Consider someone filing a claim with AIG equivalent to 3 years of the US GDP.

There is simply no way that anyone has the kind of money. It might be possible via reinsurance arrangements to get that covered by distributing the risk to a large number of extremely large, financially sound firms located in multiple prosperous systems. But then Manticore declared war on their reinsurerers, so they will just laugh.

So essentially the options are the entire financial system collapses as the insurers liquidate everything they have (much of which is not particularly liquid) at fire sale prices and the big insurers all still go bankrupt or they pull out the big "Act of War/Terrorism" stamp and start closing claims.

Or more simply the government declares the insurers financiers "to big to fail" and write them a cheque on the national debt. They did it here in NZ when some of the insurance companies were going bankrupt because of the Christchurch earthquake claims.

As pointed out above and in real life this is the sort of event for which government backing is assumed/required to avoid total financial meltdowns. It also cushions the blow for the average man in the street who is looking to government to soften random acts of misfortune.

Silverwall wrote:Or more simply the government declares the insurers financiers "to big to fail" and write them a cheque on the national debt. They did it here in NZ when some of the insurance companies were going bankrupt because of the Christchurch earthquake claims.

As pointed out above and in real life this is the sort of event for which government backing is assumed/required to avoid total financial meltdowns. It also cushions the blow for the average man in the street who is looking to government to soften random acts of misfortune.

Today the US total government debt is $19,360,176,741,617.54
So we'll say $19 trillion.

The US GDP is generally said to be $17.42 Trillion.

If the US government tomorrow decided to issue an additional $68 trillion is bonds to cover an emergency what would the effect be?

You now have a national debt of $85 trillion. The entire US tax revenue (local, state and federal) is estimated to be $6.45 trillion. This is 600 billion less than the US government spends. So the deficit slowly rises and the rating of US government bonds slowly goes down. A 68 trillion increase will not result in a slow drop in rating, it will be a freefall to toilet paper land.

There is no possible way you can ever pay that off and nobody will buy bonds for that because nobody with that kind of money is that dumb. Essentially the only option to do this is the government printing huge amounts of money. You know what an economist calls the effect of a government printing huge amounts of money?

Hyperinflation.