Safehold Oil and Gas Industry

Weird Harold wrote:

Randomiser wrote:Weird Harold seems to be ignoring the fact that there were reasons the Wright Brothers used an ICE instead of a steam engine for their plane.

No, I'm assuming that there will never be a Safehold equivalent of the Wright flyer.

Merlin does indeed want to encourage indigenous innovation, but the inner circle is already leaping over a lot of elementary research to production ready products.

Heavier-than-air flight is one technology that is problematic without resorting to ICEs. But gas turbines or even pulse-ramjet engines will run on any flammable liquid -- alcohol, perfume, coal-oil, etc. They don't need to run on fossil oil.

If Safehold can limit oil refining to simple distillation of Kerosene and Gasoline and ICEs to places an other option is truly unavailable (not just more inconvenient, truly unavailable) then they won't be stalled in an oil-based economy built in ICEs like the US currently is.

Randomiser wrote:ICE powered vehicles are not just used for cars despite Harold's focus on them, they also form the end of every efficient distribution chain for goods, sometimes both ends.

That distribution chain was around and working fine when Steam ruled the rails and seas and "horsepower" meant four-hooved ungulates. It does NOT require ICEs.

Good grief, what do you plan to do with distillation fractions like #4 diesel, or white gas? Every crude has typical profile of finished product ratios that can be produced. In the 1980s there were tankers that made a good profit hauling diesel from NJ to Europe and carried Gasoline back. This was due to the difference in percentages of fuel consumed in each location.

Your fascination with steam is causing you to forget some key things. Steam is scalable, but at smaller sizes internal combustion engines are noticeably more efficient. At a minimum you must factor in the fuel used to warm up the boiler. There were three main reasons the US railroads converted to diesel power in the 1950s, warm up times of the Steam locos, small but growing differences in maintenance requirements, and the ability to abandon maintaining watertowers.

Wood is not that good of a fuel compared to fossil fuels, thanks to its lower energy density, poorer storage characteristics, and the extremely limited ability to increase production.

The end of draft animals for hauling freight was after the ability to make pneumatic tires in the sizes required for large trucks and more to the point, farm tractors. Horses require feeding even when not working, and farmers would hire out their teams when not pulling farm equipment.

Oil and gas for energy purposes is one thing - and an important one no doubt.

But there's a critically important aspect of the oil and gas industry that I don't think we've explored very well in this thread - petrochemicals!

Take just a moment... Look around you... If you're sitting in your living room (as I am). If you're sitting in your kitchen. If you're at work in an office. If you're at your doctor's office. If you're getting ready to go out running...

You're SURROUNDED by products (both direct and indirect) of the petrochemicals industry. Plastics. Fertilizers. Cosmetics. Medicines. Technology tools. Consumer goods. And many, many more... ALL rely on the petrochemical industry.

Oil and gas are incredibly useful for energy. But they're much, much more valuable as feedstocks for the petrochemicals industry.

I agree with Weird Harold.
Why go the slow route and not bypass some of the worst aspects of a petroleum based society. We've seen Howsman and company skip many generations of steam and steel making methods. Electrical power generation can be equally sped up. Why spend a century or two getting to TF power generating capability if they can do it in a couple decades. Sure they'll use petroleum for fuel, but as a temporary measure to get where they want to go?

Castenea wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:If Safehold can limit oil refining to simple distillation of Kerosene and Gasoline and ICEs to places an other option is truly unavailable (not just more inconvenient, truly unavailable) then they won't be stalled in an oil-based economy built in ICEs like the US currently is.

Castenea wrote:Good grief, what do you plan to do with distillation fractions like #4 diesel, or white gas?

Pump them back down the hole they came from until they're needed for cracking into something suitable for making something recyclable?

I'm not a petrochemical engineer, so I don't know fine details of what fractions are available from simple distillation and what fractions/products require cracking -- except cracking was invented to increase production of lighter fractions like gasoline and diesel.

Castenea wrote:Your fascination with steam is causing you to forget some key things.

It is NOT a fascination with steam so much as it is a desire for "flying cars" as quickly as possible. (I'm old enough that flying cars have been promised "in the next decade" for most of my life.) I want Safehold to have "flying cars" before they sink the cost of 300 million ICEs into their economy and can't afford to convert to something better.

Weird Harold wrote:It is NOT a fascination with steam so much as it is a desire for "flying cars" as quickly as possible. (I'm old enough that flying cars have been promised "in the next decade" for most of my life.) I want Safehold to have "flying cars" before they sink the cost of 300 million ICEs into their economy and can't afford to convert to something better.

without comment:
http://www.gocomics.com/gray-matters/2016/07/09

Weird Harold wrote: quote="Castenea"[quote="Weird Harold"]If Safehold can limit oil refining to simple distillation of Kerosene and Gasoline and ICEs to places an other option is truly unavailable (not just more inconvenient, truly unavailable) then they won't be stalled in an oil-based economy built in ICEs like the US currently is.

Castenea wrote:Good grief, what do you plan to do with distillation fractions like #4 diesel, or white gas?

Pump them back down the hole they came from until they're needed for cracking into something suitable for making something recyclable?

I'm not a petrochemical engineer, so I don't know fine details of what fractions are available from simple distillation and what fractions/products require cracking -- except cracking was invented to increase production of lighter fractions like gasoline and diesel.

Castenea wrote:Your fascination with steam is causing you to forget some key things.

[/quote]

It is NOT a fascination with steam so much as it is a desire for "flying cars" as quickly as possible. (I'm old enough that flying cars have been promised "in the next decade" for most of my life.) I want Safehold to have "flying cars" before they sink the cost of 300 million ICEs into their economy and can't afford to convert to something better.[/quote]


They've tried air cars several time look at the Airo car and the Moler Skycar. Moler has been testing his prototype for close to twenty years. It was used in the Clive Cussler novel Atlantis Rising. Remember the jet powered air car in the movie The Man with Golden Gun? That was a actual car prototype that didn't work out.

saber964 wrote:They've tried air cars several time look at the Airo car and the Moler Skycar. Moler has been testing his prototype for close to twenty years. It was used in the Clive Cussler novel Atlantis Rising. Remember the jet powered air car in the movie The Man with Golden Gun? That was a actual car prototype that didn't work out.

Yes, I'm aware of all the failed attempts.

They didn't have the advantage of OWL's library to jump start key technologies necessary to build skimmers and air-lorries like Merlin has in his cave.

"Flying Cars" is just a metaphor for all of the things futurists have predicted that haven't panned out because we are stuck in an oil-based economy and can't/won't provide the money for research into better energy sources.

Weird Harold wrote:

saber964 wrote:They've tried air cars several time look at the Airo car and the Moler Skycar. Moler has been testing his prototype for close to twenty years. It was used in the Clive Cussler novel Atlantis Rising. Remember the jet powered air car in the movie The Man with Golden Gun? That was a actual car prototype that didn't work out.

Yes, I'm aware of all the failed attempts.

They didn't have the advantage of OWL's library to jump start key technologies necessary to build skimmers and air-lorries like Merlin has in his cave.

"Flying Cars" is just a metaphor for all of the things futurists have predicted that haven't panned out because we are stuck in an oil-based economy and can't/won't provide the money for research into better energy sources.

Actually 9 times out of 10 the futurists are talking total crap. The big problem with a lot of futurist predictions (flying cars being the best example) is that they can only work in a universe of unlimited ultra-concentrated energy storage. Basically until you have fusion power-plants capable of fitting in a car sized structure you will have power problems. Anyway do we really want the people who can't drive a straight line in 2d flying over our houses?

Even TF tech is barely there and involves some mighty serious handwaving of physics (mainly waste heat) but this is common to 99% of sci-fi and a common complaint about ships in the Honorverse.


Example of the futurist problem: most futurist predict that true self driving cars will cause personal ownership to crater in favour of shared services. My personal feeling is that it will probably increase ownership outside of inner-city living as now you want a vehicle for every family member including 6yo timmy so you minimise time waiting for a shared service and don't have to put up with the mess and bad aftershave stench from the previous user. Basically they are thinking of people as homo economius the imaginary rational economic thinker rather than the short sighted selfish reality of most peoples day to day decision making.

Silverwall wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:Yes, I'm aware of all the failed attempts.

They didn't have the advantage of OWL's library to jump start key technologies necessary to build skimmers and air-lorries like Merlin has in his cave.

Actually 9 times out of 10 the futurists are talking total crap. The big problem with a lot of futurist predictions (flying cars being the best example) is that they can only work in a universe of unlimited ultra-concentrated energy storage. Basically until you have fusion power-plants capable of fitting in a car sized structure you will have power problems.

You do remember OWL, don't you? The ultimate "futurist" because he's got a library and examples of real flying cars and power-sources small (and light) enough to fit inside humaniform robots?

Safehold is NOT the real world and there is absolutely no reason it has to follow every step of technology from the real world to get from "A" to "Y" (think AEIOUY instead of ABC...XYZ)

Weird Harold wrote:

Castenea wrote:Harold, again you seem to be acting deliberately obtuse. preferred fuels are energy dense, inexpensive, and easy to obtain in large quantities. ...

I'm not being obtuse, I'm looking at the shortest path from where Charis is now to the entire planet having access to the kind of energy density that powers Merlin, Nimue, OWL and the rest of Merlin's toys.

As much as Americans love their cars, much of the rest of the world gets around on bicycles or scooters and/or electric powered mass transit. Safehold doesn't have the massive personal transport tradition Americans have or even Europeans. They'll never miss what they never had. That would do away with something like 75% (a guess ) of internal combustion engines. That would also do away with a 80 or 90% of the demand for gasoline.

Safehold does NOT have to follow our progress and can skip over entire blocks of technology. Their first computer after the Proscriptions are lifted is going to be at least an Apple II or McIntosh; it is definitely not going to be a 30 ton vacuum tube monstrosity like ENIAC.

They could have bullet trains crisscrossing the continents before they get an airplane off the ground -- once they can use electricity. All they have to do is make sure that the tracks for steam trains are up to high-speed traffic and string catenary wires as soon as the proscriptions are lifted.

Much of the rest of the world converts to cars as fast as possible. See "Tata Motors". There is a wonderful aerial photo of a Beijing traffic jam, notable for the issue that in the space shown in the photo the superhighway is not five or ten but fifty lanes wide.