Safehold Oil and Gas Industry

Castenea wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:And that is really my whole point about skipping over any technology that burns fossil fuels; we have better (and recyclable) uses for fossil hydrocarbons than burning the so they can't be recycled.

Two major issues you are deliberately ignoring. ...

I'm not ignoring any major issues, the point remains that burning finite resources is dumb. I'm not particularly concerned about pollution or global warming or how energy dense a particular power source is, those problems will or will not occur in Safehold's future whatever path they take.

What I'm looking at is the minor detail that Merlin and Nimue both have fusion power supplies small enough to fit inside a petite human female frame and they don't generate huge amounts of waste heat. Safehold has the opportunity to stay with steam-traction and hydro-electric general purpose power until enough of the proper materials and tools are available to go straight to fusion power.

It may have to start with large fusion electricity generation as a first generation, but with OWL's help, Charis can be steered to miniaturization fairly quickly.

Earth's current energy economy is largely irrelevant as Safehold has to aim for Terran Federation tech and beyond as quickly as possible because of the Gbaba threat. They don't have the time or need to futz around with 20th century tech when they can leapfrog from Steam to Fusion with only a brief flirtation with electronics.

Weird Harold wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:And that is really my whole point about skipping over any technology that burns fossil fuels; we have better (and recyclable) uses for fossil hydrocarbons than burning the so they can't be recycled.

I'm not ignoring any major issues, the point remains that burning finite resources is dumb. I'm not particularly concerned about pollution or global warming or how energy dense a particular power source is, those problems will or will not occur in Safehold's future whatever path they take.

What I'm looking at is the minor detail that Merlin and Nimue both have fusion power supplies small enough to fit inside a petite human female frame and they don't generate huge amounts of waste heat. Safehold has the opportunity to stay with steam-traction and hydro-electric general purpose power until enough of the proper materials and tools are available to go straight to fusion power.

It may have to start with large fusion electricity generation as a first generation, but with OWL's help, Charis can be steered to miniaturization fairly quickly.

Earth's current energy economy is largely irrelevant as Safehold has to aim for Terran Federation tech and beyond as quickly as possible because of the Gbaba threat. They don't have the time or need to futz around with 20th century tech when they can leapfrog from Steam to Fusion with only a brief flirtation with electronics.

So, you think Charis can skip 2-300 years of MODERN, by our own standards, of development? Ummm, ok, yeah.

Sorry, having TF tech will shorten the fossil fuel period, but there is absolutely no way it can be skipped.

Isilith wrote:Sorry, having TF tech will shorten the fossil fuel period, but there is absolutely no way it can be skipped.

Obviously Charis already has a "fossil fuel economy" with steam and coal for almost every form of energy. I'm specifically talking about minimizing or eliminating the burning of oil and natural gas. Replacing them with renewable liquid fuels like Fire Vine Oil and/or extending the Steam Era into what our history filled out with Internal Combustion Engines.

The Petroleum/internal combustion based modern economy can be skipped over. Steam can do pretty much anything IC engines can do and don't require liquid fuels to do so. Electrics/Batteries can substitute for ICs in every application that steam can't.

With knowledge of how the TF replaced our modern dependence on burning ever more oil with something cleaner and more efficient, the Steam Era can be extended until an efficient electric economy based on hydroelectric, fuel cells and efficient batteries can cover the gap to microfusion-powered everything.

Weird Harold wrote:

Isilith wrote:Sorry, having TF tech will shorten the fossil fuel period, but there is absolutely no way it can be skipped.

Obviously Charis already has a "fossil fuel economy" with steam and coal for almost every form of energy. I'm specifically talking about minimizing or eliminating the burning of oil and natural gas. Replacing them with renewable liquid fuels like Fire Vine Oil and/or extending the Steam Era into what our history filled out with Internal Combustion Engines.

The Petroleum/internal combustion based modern economy can be skipped over. Steam can do pretty much anything IC engines can do and don't require liquid fuels to do so. Electrics/Batteries can substitute for ICs in every application that steam can't.

With knowledge of how the TF replaced our modern dependence on burning ever more oil with something cleaner and more efficient, the Steam Era can be extended until an efficient electric economy based on hydroelectric, fuel cells and efficient batteries can cover the gap to microfusion-powered everything.

I think you are right, Harold, to point out that things could go that way. But I am highly doubtful that it will go that way. For one thing, science on Safehold will progress gradually rather than instantly, even given Owl's help. And the scientific sophistication needed for an icu is far less than a fusion power plant.

Don

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n7axw wrote:I think you are right, Harold, to point out that things could go that way. But I am highly doubtful that it will go that way. For one thing, science on Safehold will progress gradually rather than instantly, even given Owl's help. And the scientific sophistication needed for an icu is far less than a fusion power plant.

Don

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There are several examples of late steam era technology that could compete with ICE technology. Steam Lorries and steam airplanes with flash boilers that don't take all night to get ready for a day's work. Battery technology hampered electric cars for private transport and politics had as much to do with killing electric trolleys in favor of ICE powered busses.

A bit of adverse propaganda applied to ICE technology and a bit of OWL's help in developing efficient batteries and Voila no oil barons to buy competing patents and regional transportation boards.

Safehold not only could skip over a petroleum based economy, the SHOULD skip over. Merlin and Nimue should know enough history to point the inner circle in the right direction to guide technology around dependence on ICEs and fossil oil.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think you are right, Harold, to point out that things could go that way. But I am highly doubtful that it will go that way. For one thing, science on Safehold will progress gradually rather than instantly, even given Owl's help. And the scientific sophistication needed for an icu is far less than a fusion power plant.

Don

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There are several examples of late steam era technology that could compete with ICE technology. Steam Lorries and steam airplanes with flash boilers that don't take all night to get ready for a day's work. Battery technology hampered electric cars for private transport and politics had as much to do with killing electric trolleys in favor of ICE powered busses.

A bit of adverse propaganda applied to ICE technology and a bit of OWL's help in developing efficient batteries and Voila no oil barons to buy competing patents and regional transportation boards.

Safehold not only could skip over a petroleum based economy, the SHOULD skip over. Merlin and Nimue should know enough history to point the inner circle in the right direction to guide technology around dependence on ICEs and fossil oil.

Never mind the massive electrical infrastructure that would ALREADY HAVE TO BE IN PLACE to refine the rare earth metals BEFORE you can even begin to develop those efficient batteries you want. As well as the industrial level mining equipment ( more nasty ICEs ) to pull the raw materials out of the ground to even refine them.

Again, having access to TF will shorten the ICE phase, it will not enable Safehold to skip it. Not without insane amounts of handwavium.

Weird Harold wrote:

Isilith wrote:Sorry, having TF tech will shorten the fossil fuel period, but there is absolutely no way it can be skipped.

Obviously Charis already has a "fossil fuel economy" with steam and coal for almost every form of energy. I'm specifically talking about minimizing or eliminating the burning of oil and natural gas. Replacing them with renewable liquid fuels like Fire Vine Oil and/or extending the Steam Era into what our history filled out with Internal Combustion Engines.

The Petroleum/internal combustion based modern economy can be skipped over. Steam can do pretty much anything IC engines can do and don't require liquid fuels to do so. Electrics/Batteries can substitute for ICs in every application that steam can't.

With knowledge of how the TF replaced our modern dependence on burning ever more oil with something cleaner and more efficient, the Steam Era can be extended until an efficient electric economy based on hydroelectric, fuel cells and efficient batteries can cover the gap to microfusion-powered everything.

The problem with steam power is it takes time to get ready. You have to have steam pressure in order to move. IIRC a Stanley Steamer car required 2-3 hours of water heating before it could move and had to be stoked on a regular basis, they also had to be refilled with feed water at regular intervals. You ever wonder why in T.V. shows and movies with steam locomotives had a water tower, that was to supply feed water for the locomotive. It is also why most of the world navies have gotten away from steam powered ships. The USN hasn't commissioned a conventional steam powered ship since the 1980's. They are all either gas-turbine or diesel powered.

saber964 wrote:The USN hasn't commissioned a conventional steam powered ship since the 1980's. They are all either gas-turbine or diesel powered.

Isilith wrote:As well as the industrial level mining equipment ( more nasty ICEs ) to pull the raw materials out of the ground to even refine them.

The Panama and Suez canals were dug by steam engines and steam trains. Why would mining raw materials require more tech than that?

New York city once had electric streetcars powered by Niagra Falls

Safehold has a choice of building Steam and Electric infrastructure and improving that or building fossil oil/ICE infrastructure. If they don't build the infrastructure to support a fossil oil/ICE economy then all of your arguments about the ubiquitous use of ICEs fall flat.

With knowledge of future TF tech that finally displaced burning of fossil fuels for energy and broke the Oil Barons' (Sheiks') hold on the economy there's no reason for Safehold to get into the blind alley we're currently in. It costs more every year to maintain our dependence on fossil oil and it costs too much to abandon ICEs for better alternatives.

saber964 wrote:The USN hasn't commissioned a conventional steam powered ship since the 1980's. They are all either gas-turbine or diesel powered.

Except for the nuclear powered subs and super-carriers -- but they're hardly conventional, are they? They are however steam-turbine-electric hybrids.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think you are right, Harold, to point out that things could go that way. But I am highly doubtful that it will go that way. For one thing, science on Safehold will progress gradually rather than instantly, even given Owl's help. And the scientific sophistication needed for an icu is far less than a fusion power plant.

Don

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There are several examples of late steam era technology that could compete with ICE technology. Steam Lorries and steam airplanes with flash boilers that don't take all night to get ready for a day's work. Battery technology hampered electric cars for private transport and politics had as much to do with killing electric trolleys in favor of ICE powered busses.

A bit of adverse propaganda applied to ICE technology and a bit of OWL's help in developing efficient batteries and Voila no oil barons to buy competing patents and regional transportation boards.

Safehold not only could skip over a petroleum based economy, the SHOULD skip over. Merlin and Nimue should know enough history to point the inner circle in the right direction to guide technology around dependence on ICEs and fossil oil.

As I repeat, it could go that way, but I strongly doubt that it will. Development of scientific knowledge depends on the knowledge base of society as a whole and ice represents an earlier stage of development than either fusion or those advanced batteries needed to skip a petro based economy.

Merlin can provide tech leaps in a limited way which at least to some extent he is already doing. His goal of teaching Safehold to think creatively, however, mitigates against him actually being able to control the direction of an entire planet.

What it is going to come down to in the end is economics and progress will be guided less by any ideal than by how economically any given energy sourse is at the stage of tech capability the society enjoys. Given that, I suspect that even though alternatives are possible, things will actually play out pretty much as they did in our own timeline.

Don

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n7axw wrote:What it is going to come down to in the end is economics and progress will be guided less by any ideal than by how economically any given energy sourse is at the stage of tech capability the society enjoys. Given that, I suspect that even though alternatives are possible, things will actually play out pretty much as they did in our own timeline.

ICE and electric motors developed pretty much concurrently in Our Time Line (OTL.) Electric trains/trams predate Diesel-electric by about 10-20 years. Steam Trains overwhelmed both for about 70 years.

If the people with access to OWL's library give electricity and especially electric transport a bigger head start, that may well be all that is needed. Granted, the inner circle won't -- and can't -- be the only innovators, but they will be in a position to give technologies they want a head start and retard technologies that they know are dead ends -- like ICEs.