All out Warfare Against the Sollies

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:

pnakasone wrote:The sheer size of the league makes it difficult to fight long term. The GA could destroy all SLN and all the space based industries in the Sl. But they could not prevent it from being rebuilt or SL doing one or more Boltholes. If SLN plays it smart they could keep the GA fighting small actions for years while they develop the tech to match them.

There are 1700+ core member worlds and unknown number of smaller systems. SL space is about 200 light years in diameter.

That analysis made sense when it was the SKM versus the League. Now that Haven is added to the mix I am beginning to wonder if that isn't as true anymore.

We had a few straws in the wind in the textev: the comments by Captain Gweon on how the combined economic power of Haven and Manticore would surpass the League in "ten to fifteen T-years" are the best ones. And the rumors that a few worlds (daughter colonies?) are considering seceding in addition to Beowulf.

I'd say breaking up the Solarian League is still the best strategy, but the actual implementation of that strategy has to change dramatically now that Haven and Beowulf (and possibly other Solarian worlds) are added to the GA.

To be fair, that analysis was probably relying on continued trade with the League and with nothing stimulating the League economy.

In an open war with the GA neither of those would be true. Manticore would lose the majority of it's junction traffic revenue, much of it's financial industry (the bulk of which was levering the Junction to act as a central financial clearing for something like half of human space), not to mention the taxes and fees from direct trade and cargo shipping throughout the League. So that part of the GA's economy would probably take a big slump; plus it would act as a drag on building up the newly integrated economies in Talbott and Silesia.

And the League seems unlikely to remain in its complacent economic snooze in the face of a shooting war. So lots of planets with way more people than Manticore, and similar (if not quite so highly refined) technology bases could be building up their economies to fight the war, and certainly building up domestic or short haul trade and industry to replace the cheap long haul wormhole facilitated trade Manticore used to be key to.

So with the trajectory of the GA economies dropping, and that of the League core worlds climbing, it seems unlikely that the economies of the GA would pass those of the League as predicted.

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:That analysis made sense when it was the SKM versus the League. Now that Haven is added to the mix I am beginning to wonder if that isn't as true anymore.

As last seen, the GA still was only a fraction of the SL's size. Even if the Andermani are added, there aren't enough ships and there isn't enough manpower to conquer and garrison the League. Especially if you create a "Pearl Harbor effect" that glues the League together so that only a few systems secede -- like Beowulf's daughter colonies.

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:We had a few straws in the wind in the textev: the comments by Captain Gweon ....

You do know that Captain Gweon is a MAlign agent? Anything he says has to be considered in the worst possible interpretation.

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:I'd say breaking up the Solarian League is still the best strategy, but the actual implementation of that strategy has to change dramatically now that Haven and Beowulf (and possibly other Solarian worlds) are added to the GA.

Not really. The Harrington Doctrine just started with Haven instead of Beowulf. They have more ships for the military side of the plan and more diplomats for the main thrust of the plan.

Jonathan_S wrote:Manticore would lose the majority of it's junction traffic revenue, much of it's financial industry (the bulk of which was levering the Junction to act as a central financial clearing for something like half of human space), not to mention the taxes and fees from direct trade and cargo shipping throughout the League. So that part of the GA's economy would probably take a big slump; plus it would act as a drag on building up the newly integrated economies in Talbott and Silesia.

They already have. David is just ignoring this. The entire SEM economy should have just about completely collapsed. The Honroverse is not a great replacement for an economics text.

kzt wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Manticore would lose the majority of it's junction traffic revenue, much of it's financial industry (the bulk of which was levering the Junction to act as a central financial clearing for something like half of human space), not to mention the taxes and fees from direct trade and cargo shipping throughout the League. So that part of the GA's economy would probably take a big slump; plus it would act as a drag on building up the newly integrated economies in Talbott and Silesia.

They already have. David is just ignoring this. The entire SEM economy should have just about completely collapsed. The Honroverse is not a great replacement for an economics text.

I do not see a collapse of the economy of Manticore what is gone is the easy to access money of the junction traffic revenue. For all practical purposes that was free money for the government.

As the SL breaks up they will reopen trade with every world they can sign treaties with. Not to mention they look at grabbing the markets in the verge that trans-stellers are going to lose as thing go south.

They just have to survive the next few years.

Erls wrote:As the title suggests.. This is a thought exercise about what the GA would do if the were prepared to wage all-out war against the Sollies. Think about Winston and Pritchett (and Anderman) on an all out warpath wanting nothing but blood and destruction among the core worlds of the SL. How would this transpire - what would happen?

M<y take:
1- The GA would have 7-8 raiding fleets who were each given 3-6 'core SL worlds' to take out. Each fleet would be comprised of, roughly speaking: 50 SD(P)s [Apollo capable], 1 squad CLAC, 2 squad BC, 2 squad Heavy Cruiser, 3 squad Destroyers/Light Cruisers, 4-6 Ammo ships packed full of Apollo pods (and some ancillary missiles for the light combatants in smaller numbers).
2- Commanders would be: Harrington (1st GA Fleet), Henke (2nd GA fleet), Tourville (3rd GA fleet), Yu (4th GA fleet), Rabenstrange (5th GA fleet), Truman (6th GA fleet), and Who Else?
3- Each fleet would have 3-6 targets to hit among the 'core SL' worlds. They would fly in, pound any naval unit and installation to dust via Apollo at long range, and then move in close to energy range to wreck every space-facility present. Upon completion of that, they would leave the system for the next.

My second question: If the GA did this - pursued total war against the SL - how long would it be until the SL sued for peace OR acquired the capability to fight back? Assuming it will take 2-3 years for the SL to acquire basic MDM/FTL/Pod tech and start producing units, and then another 2-3 years from there to acquire Apollo tech and start producing units, we're looking at almost 10 T-years until the SL could field units capable of matching current generation GA tech. And, the GA won't be standing still - they'll be improving. So, is it theoretically possible for the GA to hammer the SL into submission and get their core [the strongest, richest, etc] worlds to join the GA and completely forget about the GA before the size of the GA crushes the GA?

How about ADM Niall McDonald GSN or ADM Mark Sarnow RMN or ADM Gineave Chin RHN or ADM Midge Austell RHN or VADM Oliver D'amato RHN or HADM Judah Yanakov GSN

1 note - I didn't ask why this wouldn't happen. I asked what if it HAD happened. There is a difference!

drinksmuchcoffee wrote:

pnakasone wrote:The sheer size of the league makes it difficult to fight long term. The GA could destroy all SLN and all the space based industries in the Sl. But they could not prevent it from being rebuilt or SL doing one or more Boltholes. If SLN plays it smart they could keep the GA fighting small actions for years while they develop the tech to match them.

There are 1700+ core member worlds and unknown number of smaller systems. SL space is about 200 light years in diameter.

That analysis made sense when it was the SKM versus the League. Now that Haven is added to the mix I am beginning to wonder if that isn't as true anymore.

We had a few straws in the wind in the textev: the comments by Captain Gweon on how the combined economic power of Haven and Manticore would surpass the League in "ten to fifteen T-years" are the best ones. And the rumors that a few worlds (daughter colonies?) are considering seceding in addition to Beowulf.

I'd say breaking up the Solarian League is still the best strategy, but the actual implementation of that strategy has to change dramatically now that Haven and Beowulf (and possibly other Solarian worlds) are added to the GA.

This was one of the quotes I was thinking about. Between Haven (isn't it like ~120 systems) and Manticore (20ish pre-Silesia), the GA has 140 members nations. If you add in the Andermani's, with their 20 systems and the other 30 Sileasian ones, you are almost at 200 member systems. Or roughly 10% of the size of the SL.

However, keep in mind that those 2,000 SL systems include OFS protectorates (who would probably jump at the chance to join the GA, likely numbering another couple of hundred), Beowulf and other systems with similar leanings (text says roughly 25% voted with Beowulf - even half would join with the GA that's another 200), and then polities like the Maya Sector and Erewhon. If you say 10% of the league are OFS systems that badly want out, another 10% outer protectorate systems that would be happy to leave, and another 10% core worlds that - like Beowulf - are fed up with the league, you have roughly 600 or so systems. Sure, only 200 of them will be class-A systems in terms of economic impact and tech, but that is still a big number. If you add those 600ish systems likely wanting to leave the league to the current GA, you see it is now a matter of ~800 systems (GA) on 1400 systems (SL). And, those added 600 systems would give the GA the additional manpower to run steady sweeps of SL worlds to take out naval forces and construction as it is rebuilt.

Economically, the GA would dominate the WH network and their economy would be growing faster than the SL. After all, the SL would have to build not only enough freighters to replace the GA ones that left but also additional ones to make up for the lost time spent in hyper. That will suck up some of the economy, some of the people, and it will only continues as the GA continually raids SL shipping. In a true all-out war scenario, they would take captured merchies prisoner and remove them from the equation. Thus, as the SL is needing more naval personnel to man their fleet they are also losing the very civillians who could quickly step in.

Additionally, you would add all of the fine scientists and engineers from worlds like Beowulf to the GA, some of whom you could convince to head off to Bolthole and join Sonia and Shannon in their schemes for new weapons.

The long and short of it - if the GA catches a couple lucky breaks (chiefly - that multiple 'core' worlds similar to Beowulf want to leave the SL and the same is repeated in the outer core), the GA could win if they are ruthless in stamping out SL shipping and new construction.

pnakasone wrote:I do not see a collapse of the economy of Manticore what is gone is the easy to access money of the junction traffic revenue. For all practical purposes that was free money for the government.

They have lost the vast majority of the junction traffic.

This means all the people who worked at the junction to support the vast merchant traffic (freight forwarders, entertainment) are mostly unemployed and a bunch of the firms that did this are now bankrupt. The repair facilities and the repair people will find profitable work, so there is that.

They have lost all the trade with the League, which constitutes the majority of the humans and the vast majority of the wealth in the Honorverse. So those people who made their living trading with the League are unemployed and those firms that didn't go bankrupt are not paying much in taxes. (David's explanation that this doesn't really matter would be like me claiming that I can just increase US trade with Ghana and Sudan to make for for my proposed ban on trade with Germany and Japan.)

This means no financial transaction either. So a vast drop in money raked off of these. The insurance companies are probably bankrupt, as they get to pay off 5 million life insurance policies in one day. This will have interesting second order effects I'm sure.

The fleets of freighters mostly have a cargo that they are legally required to deliver within a certain timeline or they will forfeit their enormous surety bond. Which they have blown. The typical freighter cost billion of $M and hence has to make tens of millions of $M per month to pay off the note on the ship, pay the crew, and maintain the ships. Once their surety bond is confiscated by their last customer and they have no money coming in they are pretty much out of business. Large firms probably also have raised money via bonds and other financial instruments and they are not going to be making their scheduled payments on them.

They have lost all the manufacturing. All those companies owe all sorts of money to suppliers, survivors/estates, and they also have legally binding commitments to ship goods that they have broken. In addition, they have no method of paying back financial instruments like bonds they have sold that were based on the idea that they would make money. So they are all bankrupt in addition to mostly vaporized.

All the people who made money shipping manufactured goods are out of business, though most of them are probably dead.

All the people who supported manufacturing, like the 300 million belters who did asteroid mining, are out of work as their is no need for them to be supping tens of millions of tons of raw material per week to the non-existent factories.

I think that pretty much covers all the sources of income that Manticore has been said to have.

Erls wrote:The long and short of it - if the GA catches a couple lucky breaks (chiefly - that multiple 'core' worlds similar to Beowulf want to leave the SL and the same is repeated in the outer core), the GA could win if they are ruthless in stamping out SL shipping and new construction.

If the GA fails to destroy the SL, they are doomed. Even if they conquer and disband it -- much as they have Silesia -- they leave the seeds of revanchism -- "a policy of seeking to retaliate, especially to recover lost territory. -- Google Search dictionary."

Revanchism is the biggest threat from the Solarian League or remnant parts and "all out war" is the one thing most likely to generate it.

kzt wrote:

pnakasone wrote:I do not see a collapse of the economy of Manticore what is gone is the easy to access money of the junction traffic revenue. For all practical purposes that was free money for the government.

They have lost the vast majority of the junction traffic.

This means all the people who worked at the junction to support the vast merchant traffic (freight forwarders, entertainment) are mostly unemployed and a bunch of the firms that did this are now bankrupt. The repair facilities and the repair people will find profitable work, so there is that.

They have lost all the trade with the League, which constitutes the majority of the humans and the vast majority of the wealth in the Honorverse. So those people who made their living trading with the League are unemployed and those firms that didn't go bankrupt are not paying much in taxes. (David's explanation that this doesn't really matter would be like me claiming that I can just increase US trade with Ghana and Sudan to make for for my proposed ban on trade with Germany and Japan.)

This means no financial transaction either. So a vast drop in money raked off of these. The insurance companies are probably bankrupt, as they get to pay off 5 million life insurance policies in one day. This will have interesting second order effects I'm sure.

The fleets of freighters mostly have a cargo that they are legally required to deliver within a certain timeline or they will forfeit their enormous surety bond. Which they have blown. The typical freighter cost billion of $M and hence has to make tens of millions of $M per month to pay off the note on the ship, pay the crew, and maintain the ships. Once their surety bond is confiscated by their last customer and they have no money coming in they are pretty much out of business. Large firms probably also have raised money via bonds and other financial instruments and they are not going to be making their scheduled payments on them.

They have lost all the manufacturing. All those companies owe all sorts of money to suppliers, survivors/estates, and they also have legally binding commitments to ship goods that they have broken. In addition, they have no method of paying back financial instruments like bonds they have sold that were based on the idea that they would make money. So they are all bankrupt in addition to mostly vaporized.

All the people who made money shipping manufactured goods are out of business, though most of them are probably dead.

All the people who supported manufacturing, like the 300 million belters who did asteroid mining, are out of work as their is no need for them to be supping tens of millions of tons of raw material per week to the non-existent factories.

I think that pretty much covers all the sources of income that Manticore has been said to have.

I think we have to just disagree on this. I do not see it as a collapse the way you do. It is going to hurt majorly but Manticore will recover given time.

Keep in mind, it's not "all out war against the League", it would be "all out war against Battle Fleet". We're told that most of battle fleet -- including the reserve -- is primarily based from as few as a dozen yards, so I would expect that the "military component" of destroying the SLN would take place rather quickly.

The problem is, "then what?" You now have 1700 worlds without the 800 pound gorilla to protect them, meaning that the GA has to some how not only convince the 1700 not to band together and develop their own "bolthole fleets" to continue battling with the forces in the Haven Quadrant.

You also have the transtellars who are accustomed to using Frontier Fleet to do their dirty work in the Shell and in the Verge, in penny packets by comparison to Battle Fleet. Much of the FF leadership, the sector governors, etc. are hopelessly corrupt -- but you can't just zip in with a squadron of Sag-C's etc. and fire away leaving chaos in your wake. Doing that simply turns FF into pirattcal / warlord controlled mini-fleets and task groups.

Plus... the MAlign and RF worlds have their own fleets far closer to GA tech to deal with, they can fill any vacumn left by the "all out war against the Sollies"

All out war is easy. All out peace afterwards, not so much.