Weird Harold wrote:Sigs wrote:The GA might end up helping the MA/RF fortify systems that they would end up having to conquer.
Yep, I fully expect that to happen. Just like the US supplied F-4s to Iraq and F14s to Iran.
So you are encouraging arming potential enemies with modern weapons? Did the US supply Iraq with modern weapons and equipment in 2003 right before they invaded?
Weird Harold wrote:
It doesn't make any sense to make a treaty to defend someone and then do less than your best to defend them. Manticore specifically and the GA in general don't have the ships or manpower to defend newly independent systems, so they need to provide defense in some other manner.
I've said several times that every system is unique and "military assistance" needs to be tailored to the needs and reliability of the system being assisted. That does NOT mean "give everyone top-of-the-line technology." But by the same token, it requires that systems be offered adequate defenses according to their need and at a minimum, I think that would have to start with MDM system defense missiles with appropriate command and control elements. That could be a wide range of MDM developments.
I don't think Manticore has a single-drive system defense missile in inventory; it has been about twenty-years since such moon-based missiles were standard system defenses and they were totally inadequate then. I suppose they could come up with something in a pod-based ERM for cheapskates who don't want to invest in MDM defenses.
Whether they provide last-war capacitor-powered MDMs of the latest Micro-fusion powered Apollo; FTL control links or light-speed "Moriarity" grade systems, the tech shared is going to inevitably be better than "Solarian Standard."
No one is suggesting to abandon newly independent systems, what I am suggesting is to keep all defences except legacy SLN weaponry out of their hands until they prove to the GA that (1)they can be trusted with modern weapons,(2)They have a compatible political system and (3)they wont be using said weapon systems to conquer their neighbours or settle scores.
The GA has the ships to protect any and all independent systems as long as they come at the problem appropriately. If they leave the SLN relatively intact it would create a whole host of problems, while destroying the SLN and distributing reserve and captured ships to newly independent systems allows them to build up their military muscle, but allows you to maintain the upper hand until they prove they can be trusted.
Weird Harold wrote:What makes you think an Ally has to share belief systems? Should we not have allied with Stalin against Hitler?
Well Stalin and the USSR had something to offer while a newly independent system with a "fleet" of 25 LAC's doesn't really have the same advantages. The advantage for the Allies was that as long as the USSR remained in the war most of the fighting was done by them. In this scenario if the GA props up a bunch of independent states they would still carry the bulk of the fighting so the advantage is not there.
Weird Harold wrote:
How do you get "2 levels of trust" out of "every system is unique and requires a unique defense package?"
No every system is not unique, they either have the means to defend themselves or they do not and they either have the means to build a powerful fleet or they do not. Everything else has to be earned. Beowulf has a long term relationship with Manticore and has earned their trust, every other system has to do the same.
Weird Harold wrote:
Where have I advocated giving offensive tech (i.e. SHIP technology) to defense partners? Selected partners might eventually get more than missiles, LACs and FTL C3 systems, but most will get defensive -- non-hyper-capable -- military assistance.
So you are saying that if a system had the LAC's they would not be able to build their own carriers?
Or MDM Pods wont greatly extend the range of shipborne missiles? There is not a magic line between offensive and defensive weapons where having one doesn't help with the other. If you have MDM pods and LAC's they can be turned into offensive weapons quite easily in many ways without requiring purpose build ships but only freighters.
Weird Harold wrote:The whole point of a web of mutual defense treaties is to deter would-be Conquistadors. IF everyone else has the same tech-level having GA tech is not a big enough advantage to encourage aggression.
Yeah it shouldn't BUT that has not stopped all that many wars in history.
There is a difference between post war defence treaties and wartime defence treaties. Arming potential enemies with equal weapons while you are engaged in a multi-front war with multiple enemies some of which you know little about seems like a fighting against yourself.
Weird Harold wrote:When Monica was planned there weren't any Manticoran "Silesian Protectorates" or Talbott Quadrant, and Neither the RHN nor the IAN had Apollo or KHII. Beowulf wasn't building Apollo missiles, Keyhole II for RHN ships, Mycroft C3 modules, Mk-16Gs or any other Manticoran tech.
Which of those nations would be inclined to sell Manticoran technology to the League or the MA? If they all know that they face the same enemies I highly doubt they will be all that willing to share their technological advantage with potential enemies.
Weird Harold wrote:
Are you so certain that there are no "Randy Steilman" types in the IAN, RHN, Beowulf defense industries, the Silesian Protectorates, or the Talbott Quadrant? The tech you seem most worried about has been spread very widely since Monica.
So you are suggesting to just give it to everyone just because someone might TRY to sell some of those designs? I am sure that there are safeguards to prevent theft of those designs and equipment...safeguards that they wont be able to enforce in the new nations.
Weird Harold wrote:
When the League begins to collapse -- probably within a year of Beowulf's secession vote when the second core system secedes -- it will fall apart like the Soviet Union did; within a matter of months. The image of a watermelon tossed off the Sears Tower comes to mind.
And why would it collapse so fast? The SLN is impotent against the GA but most of it's member systems are in fact quite defenceless and the very actions to disarm the SLN run the risk of prolonging the collapse.
The comparison of the USSR to the League only goes so far and trying to model the collapse of a single nation on one planet to a political entity that has 2,000+ members leads to faulty assumptions.
Weird Harold wrote:
The general consensus here seems to be the League has around two-years; three at most. There are scenarios where the League might last longer or actually survive relatively intact, but they are about as likely as that watermelon bouncing back to the observation deck in one piece.
And introducing GA technology system defence weapons into the mix might allow the League to survive long enough to fix some of their faults.