Brexit Referendum

Well within the Realm of probability. Next February Prime Minister Boris Johnson and President Donald Trump sit down for tea....

biochem wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Biochem,

OK, the Brits are out and it appears that the EU will fragment over the next decade or two. That suggests that the Euro will grow weaker as the economies that support it use their own currency.

Long term outlooks suggests that this would tend to reduce inflationary pressures for the dollar. As the Euro weakens it will lose its ability to finance international trade as well as function as a reserve currency. Those functions will soak up more and more of the excess dollars our Federal Reserve has created over the past decade and a half. This will nicely replace the wealth destruction I looked for for so long to mitigate potential inflation stemming from all that excess liquidity.

Am I wrong?

That would be a logical conclusion as the EU continues to deteriorate.

The only thing that would prevent that is if Germany runs a behind the scenes Coup d'etat on Brussels and grabs the rest of the EU by their throats and starts dictating to the rest of them. The UK would never stand for it. The rest of Europe just might especially if all of the rough stuff is behind the scenes and the other leaders are allowed to save face publicly.

Alright, the short term impact on US securities markets will be quite negative. I wouldn't be surprised as the overall rebalancing and adjustment of discounted cash flow models will drive markets down by 15%-25%. Being in cash and dollar denominated paper should provide a nice relative return.

PeterZ wrote:
Alright, the short term impact on US securities markets will be quite negative. I wouldn't be surprised as the overall rebalancing and adjustment of discounted cash flow models will drive markets down by 15%-25%. Being in cash and dollar denominated paper should provide a nice relative return.

Yeah. I lost money this morning. The international portion of my 401K just dropped like a stone.

biochem wrote:

PeterZ wrote:
Alright, the short term impact on US securities markets will be quite negative. I wouldn't be surprised as the overall rebalancing and adjustment of discounted cash flow models will drive markets down by 15%-25%. Being in cash and dollar denominated paper should provide a nice relative return.

Yeah. I lost money this morning. The international portion of my 401K just dropped like a stone.

Sorry. I have missed the past several years in equities. I had stayed in cash. I believe that we will have another reversal before we see a consistent upward trend in equities.

biochem wrote:That would be a logical conclusion as the EU continues to deteriorate.

The only thing that would prevent that is if Germany runs a behind the scenes Coup d'etat on Brussels and grabs the rest of the EU by their throats and starts dictating to the rest of them. The UK would never stand for it. The rest of Europe just might especially if all of the rough stuff is behind the scenes and the other leaders are allowed to save face publicly.

Logic? There's little logical about this whole thing.

By now Brussels has worked up a Plan B - entice Scotland and Northern Ireland to leave the UK. That means no more UK. Consider what that would do to the pound.

Michael Everett wrote:...anyone else seeing Honorverse parallels?

EU - Solarian League.
UK - Beowulf?

Hopefully the UK won't be attacked by mysterious military forces after leaving...

Yes. I have had the exact same thought.

I'm sure runsforcelery is watching this closely? Perhaps we will see some future history parallels in his future books? Yep ... Beowulf comes to mind before, during and after the planned MA kinetic strikes?

As far as England leaving the European Union, locally it is still too soon to see. As far as USA economics, the outlook short term is very poor indeed. We will see for sure in the weeks and months ahead.

So far we have "peasant" revolts in the UK and the USA, with signs of them spreading across Europe (the elites - conservatives and liberals alike have been ignoring the normal people for too long).


Any signs of revolts in Australia or New Zealand??

We have a federal election next Saturday where our two main parties will battle it out. Labor (Democrats) versus Liberals (Republicans despite the name).
Over the years the results have been about 50/50.
A number of small parties and independent individuals are standing, and might just possbly get the balance of power in a hung parliament or senate.
They include the biggest, the Greens (left even for us), and the rest generally are right wing and or religious.
Just like some on this forum and the Tea Party, they claim to represent the "Silent majority who are sick of Political Correctness, illegal immigration, oppression of the common people by the elites, gay and women's rights, and so on". Unfortunately for them, polls and previous elections indicate that their silent majority is about 5% of the population.
I certainly don't consider myself an elite, but even if they aren't revolting, I find their homophobia and racism to be revolting anyway.

biochem wrote:So far we have "peasant" revolts in the UK and the USA, with signs of them spreading across Europe (the elites - conservatives and liberals alike have been ignoring the normal people for too long).


Any signs of revolts in Australia or New Zealand??

Daryl have you ever been to a tea party meeting? No, then that fact makes you seem incredibly stupid and I know for a fact your smarter than that. Please ignore the political rhetoric espoused by democrats. One, The tea party wants fair trade not free trade. Two, the second party platform is for judges to rule through constitutional law rather than legislate from the bench. Three, enforce immigration law and finish the border fence that was approved in 1986. Our problem in America is that the political elites own both parties through money. Take a quarter (coin) and flip it. No matter what only 2 results happen...heads or tails! He or She who controls the money controls the entire political process! These are same elites that control the normal media. They control the message that is debated on TV. The tea party is an attempt to form a third party not beholden to these people. It takes time and hard work to create a third party alternative.

From Daryl:We have a federal election next Saturday where our two main parties will battle it out. Labor (Democrats) versus Liberals (Republicans despite the name).
Over the years the results have been about 50/50.
A number of small parties and independent individuals are standing, and might just possbly get the balance of power in a hung parliament or senate.
They include the biggest, the Greens (left even for us), and the rest generally are right wing and or religious.
Just like some on this forum and the Tea Party, they claim to represent the "Silent majority who are sick of Political Correctness, illegal immigration, oppression of the common people by the elites, gay and women's rights, and so on". Unfortunately for them, polls and previous elections indicate that their silent majority is about 5% of the population.
I certainly don't consider myself an elite, but even if they aren't revolting, I find their homophobia and racism to be revolting anyway.