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Brexit Referendum

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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by munroburton   » Tue Jun 21, 2016 5:36 pm

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biochem wrote:Surprised everyone over there keeps arguing about American gun laws and no one has commented forever on Britexit which is in 2 days.


Nobody is prepared to make any predictions at this point.

Also, the quality of the debate has deteriorated badly. Genuinely undecided voters are utterly repelled by both campaigns.
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by Odium   » Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:31 pm

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munroburton wrote:

Also, the quality of the debate has deteriorated badly. Genuinely undecided voters are utterly repelled by both campaigns.


I think that sums up almost every election everywhere in the world these days. They're all turds, which one do you want to touch. Lol
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by munroburton   » Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:09 am

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Odium wrote:
munroburton wrote:

Also, the quality of the debate has deteriorated badly. Genuinely undecided voters are utterly repelled by both campaigns.


I think that sums up almost every election everywhere in the world these days. They're all turds, which one do you want to touch. Lol


Well, it's far more complicated than that. Parties are generally mostly united during elections, since they're in competition to see which party can get the most votes. During referendums, they generally back one or the other option.

Our two campaigns, Remain and Leave, both contain members of both major UK parties. All campaigning with wildly different reasons and motivations, although the main focus seems to be the economy and immigration, respectively.

If normal elections are between regular turds, this is two great big steaming vats of slurry various different entities keep adding to.

Any dog owner will tell you we prefer to deal with a healthy turd rather than a goopy runny mess.
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by biochem   » Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:24 pm

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Looking at it I would reluctantly support LEAVE if I were in the UK.

Looking at the long term pattern of behaviour on the part of the EU: Brussels is really trending toward a minimal democracy rule by the elites who know best type mentality and they have exhibited an alarming tendency of if we can't get what we want directly to sneak it in slowly with regulations (sort of like the old frog story: if you throw a frog into a pot of boiling water it will hop out, if you put it in a pot of cold water and slowly heat to boiling -> frog soup!); they also appear to be completely ineffective on handling the refugee crisis primarily because Germany still feels guilty about Hitler; they also are completely ineffective in dealing with the failing economies in southren Europe, which will need bailed out again and again at this rate; the regulations are getting worse and worse admittedly LEAVE is exaggerating the problem but the problem is a genuine one and one which is only getting worse.

If things were guaranteed to stay exactly as they are now, I'd reluctantly support REMAIN since the EU is currently the "best game in town" as someone said upthread. But given current trends it is becoming worse and worse and eventually it will no longer be the best game in town. I don't see it reversing directions and thus feel that getting out while you still can is the best LONG TERM option.

SHORT TERM (which could be 10+ years) it will be disastrous. The EU will not make it a friendly divorce and the elites will attempt to punish those "peasants" who dared question them. Trade treaties and such what will need to be renegotiated, that takes time and in the meantime chaos. It probably will trigger a recession.

LONG TERM (20+ years) new treaties and relationships will replace the old EU, and the UK will benefit from being free of the entanglement as the EU stumbles and stumbles.

Incidentally the Swiss have withdrawn their membership application to the EU. They don't want to be involved in this mess either.
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by Michael Everett   » Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:58 pm

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...anyone else seeing Honorverse parallels?

EU - Solarian League.
UK - Beowulf?

Hopefully the UK won't be attacked by mysterious military forces after leaving...
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by biochem   » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:42 pm

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Michael Everett wrote:...anyone else seeing Honorverse parallels?

EU - Solarian League.
UK - Beowulf?

Hopefully the UK won't be attacked by mysterious military forces after leaving...


Fortunately for the UK, the EU hasn't been keeping up with it's NATO military spending commitments....
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by munroburton   » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:35 am

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Well, that was an interesting night.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_r ... um/results

The United Kingdom as a whole has voted to leave the European Union, by about 52% to 48%. Or has it?

England: 53% Leave
Wales: 52.5% Leave
Northern Ireland: 56% Remain
Scotland: 62% Remain
(Gibraltar: 96% Remain)

Hell of a mess. Sinn Fein is already calling for Irish reunification and the SNP is taking a hardline stance that Scotland has spoken decisively. The pound is at a +30-year low.
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:51 am

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Biochem,

OK, the Brits are out and it appears that the EU will fragment over the next decade or two. That suggests that the Euro will grow weaker as the economies that support it use their own currency.

Long term outlooks suggests that this would tend to reduce inflationary pressures for the dollar. As the Euro weakens it will lose its ability to finance international trade as well as function as a reserve currency. Those functions will soak up more and more of the excess dollars our Federal Reserve has created over the past decade and a half. This will nicely replace the wealth destruction I looked for for so long to mitigate potential inflation stemming from all that excess liquidity.

Am I wrong?
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by gcomeau   » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:31 am

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munroburton wrote:Well, that was an interesting night.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_r ... um/results

The United Kingdom as a whole has voted to leave the European Union, by about 52% to 48%. Or has it?

England: 53% Leave
Wales: 52.5% Leave
Northern Ireland: 56% Remain
Scotland: 62% Remain
(Gibraltar: 96% Remain)

Hell of a mess. Sinn Fein is already calling for Irish reunification and the SNP is taking a hardline stance that Scotland has spoken decisively. The pound is at a +30-year low.


The ability of reactionaries to shoot themselves in the foot never ceases to amaze...
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Re: Brexit Referendum
Post by biochem   » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:00 pm

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PeterZ wrote:Biochem,

OK, the Brits are out and it appears that the EU will fragment over the next decade or two. That suggests that the Euro will grow weaker as the economies that support it use their own currency.

Long term outlooks suggests that this would tend to reduce inflationary pressures for the dollar. As the Euro weakens it will lose its ability to finance international trade as well as function as a reserve currency. Those functions will soak up more and more of the excess dollars our Federal Reserve has created over the past decade and a half. This will nicely replace the wealth destruction I looked for for so long to mitigate potential inflation stemming from all that excess liquidity.

Am I wrong?


That would be a logical conclusion as the EU continues to deteriorate.

The only thing that would prevent that is if Germany runs a behind the scenes Coup d'etat on Brussels and grabs the rest of the EU by their throats and starts dictating to the rest of them. The UK would never stand for it. The rest of Europe just might especially if all of the rough stuff is behind the scenes and the other leaders are allowed to save face publicly.
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