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Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory

Join us in talking discussing all things Honor, including (but not limited to) tactics, favorite characters, and book discussions.
Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by darrell   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:09 pm

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drothgery wrote:
darrell wrote:2. The SL core and shell are net importers of goods. (produced in the protectorates, manticore, and possibly elseware.)

Erm... as much as you're arguing from the same side I am here, mostly, cite?

It seems much more likely to me that the economies of the protectorates are only of consequence to the League because of their disproportionate effect on the League's revenue stream (which is only the case because of the League government's limited ability to levy taxes). Every specific case of a protectorate (or poorer Verge world) that we know anything about except the Maya sector seems to be exporting raw materials or agricultural products and importing manufactured goods.


Underline is my emphasis:

Mission of Honor wrote:“There’s no point pretending we haven’t just taken an enormous hit, Your Majesty,” he said now, meeting her eyes squarely, his Gryphon burr more pronounced than usual. “Our carrying trade isn’t going to be directly affected, and our Junction fees probably aren’t going to fall too significantly—not immediately, at least. The indirect effect on our carrying trade is going to make itself felt pretty quickly, though. As Charlotte’s just pointed out, for all intents and purposes we’ve lost our industrial sector completely. That means an awful lot of manufactured goods we used to be exporting aren’t going to be available now. That accounts for a significant percentage of our total carrying trade—not to mention an enormous chunk of the Old Star Kingdom’s Gross System Product. And as our industrial exports drop, the resultant drop in shipping’s also going to have at least some effect on our Junction fees.


Given: The majority of manticoran shipping prior to Lacoon was with the Solarian League.

Given: a significant percentage of our total carrying trade—not to mention an enormous chunk of the Old Star Kingdom’s Gross System Product. was manufacturing goods for export.

Result: The SL has to be importing a large amount of goods manufactured in manticore.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by n7axw   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:28 pm

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kzt wrote:
n7axw wrote:Manticore will recover its industrial plant and it will be new and modernized. How? By handwavium if nothing else. The economics will serve the story and not the other way around.
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I remember when one of the attractions of the series was that it all held together logically....


You are getting old...

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by kzt   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:31 pm

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darrell wrote:Given: a significant percentage of our total carrying trade—not to mention an enormous chunk of the Old Star Kingdom’s Gross System Product. was manufacturing goods for export.

Result: The SL has to be importing a large amount of goods manufactured in manticore.

No. They mostly were moving goods from place to place inside the SL. This was explained at some point in the text.

And given that they no longer either make things or move things inside the SL how is the economy supposed to still be holding together enough to afford investing 100 years of several percentage of the GSP in two year. What interest rate would you price the bonds of someone who wants to borrow from you say two years of Manticores GSP, but has no income and is at war with 90% of humanity? And who can actually lend them that kind of money at any interest rate?
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by darrell   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:50 pm

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kzt wrote:
n7axw wrote:Manticore will recover its industrial plant and it will be new and modernized. How? By handwavium if nothing else. The economics will serve the story and not the other way around.
-

I remember when one of the attractions of the series was that it all held together logically....


A Rising Thunder, chapter 28 June 1922 wrote: Horrific as the casualties of the Yawata strike had been, it had actually killed only a relatively small percentage of the total Manticoran workforce. But it had killed a critical percentage—the technicians, the logisticians, the supervisors, and the managers responsible for building the Star Empire’s starships, military and civilian. The smelters and the resource-extraction platforms were still there. Much of the system’s consumer manufacturing still existed,
... clipped ...
They still had at least some of the people they needed, once they could be recalled or transferred from other critical sectors of the economy. And the repatriated workforce from Grendelsbane had been a godsend. For the matter, there were plenty of Manticorans who could acquire the necessary skill sets.
... clipped ...
Nor was that all Beowulf was doing. Dozens of Beowulfan repair and service ships had already streamed through the Junction, and the nuclei of new space stations were already taking shape—two each, this time, around Manticore and Sphinx.
... clipped ...
The tectonic shift represented by the Grand Alliance’s unexpected formation had hugely reduced even the most optimistic Manticoran estimates of how long it was going to take to rebuild the Old Star Kingdom’s industrial muscle. Which wasn’t to say it was going to happen overnight, even now. The process was still going to take T-years, and everyone knew it.
That was why Beowulf was already establishing its first MDM production lines. It had no pod-laying superdreadnoughts of its own, but its basic technological capabilities required far less tweaking than Haven’s would to begin producing the mini-fusion plants and the miniaturized gravitic components required to build something like the Mark 23-E. So for the foreseeable future, Beowulf would be the primary missile supplier for the Grand Alliance. For that matter, if things worked out the way the planners were anticipating, in the next several T-months Beowulf would begin building Keyhole-Two platforms to be installed in purpose-built Havenite SD(P)s constructed in Bolthole and sailed to Manticore for final installation of the Beowulf-built components.
Just thinking about it could make Elizabeth’s head swim, but Honor and Hamish promised her it would work. As long as Beowulf remained intact, at least, and the two hundred pod-laying superdreadnoughts stationed there to protect the system suggested it would.


The last 4 books (MoH, ART, SoF, CoG) combined covered just 6 months and the last 7 all took place in a combined span of about a year. This is an unusally fast pace for the honorverse, where it is typical for t years to go by between novels. It would not surprise me for SoV and the breakup of the SL to take years.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by JohnRoth   » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:03 am

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darrell wrote:The last 4 books (MoH, ART, SoF, CoG) combined covered just 6 months and the last 7 all took place in a combined span of about a year. This is an unusally fast pace for the honorverse, where it is typical for t years to go by between novels. It would not surprise me for SoV and the breakup of the SL to take years.


Well, David has said he wants to wrap it up in two more books, the first of which is Shadow of Victory and the second to be published on the anniversary of On Basilisk Station. That doesn't give any scope for elaborating plot lines, etc. As far as I'm concerned, the SL breakup is not interesting. It's going to happen, and some attention needs to be paid to it, but otherwise the action needs to focus on giving the MAlign a well-deserved drubbing, with special attention paid to the Detweillers and Darius.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by darrell   » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:44 am

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kzt wrote:
darrell wrote:Given: a significant percentage of our total carrying trade—not to mention an enormous chunk of the Old Star Kingdom’s Gross System Product. was manufacturing goods for export.

Result: The SL has to be importing a large amount of goods manufactured in manticore.

No. They mostly were moving goods from place to place inside the SL. This was explained at some point in the text.

And given that they no longer either make things or move things inside the SL how is the economy supposed to still be holding together enough to afford investing 100 years of several percentage of the GSP in two year. What interest rate would you price the bonds of someone who wants to borrow from you say two years of Manticores GSP, but has no income and is at war with 90% of humanity? And who can actually lend them that kind of money at any interest rate?


No DAVID WEBBER said in "Mission of Honor, chapter 30":
“There’s no point pretending we haven’t just taken an enormous hit, Your Majesty,” he said now, meeting her eyes squarely, his Gryphon burr more pronounced than usual. “Our carrying trade isn’t going to be directly affected, and our Junction fees probably aren’t going to fall too significantly—not immediately, at least. The indirect effect on our carrying trade is going to make itself felt pretty quickly, though. As Charlotte’s just pointed out, for all intents and purposes we’ve lost our industrial sector completely. That means an awful lot of manufactured goods we used to be exporting aren’t going to be available now. That accounts for a significant percentage of our total carrying trade—not to mention an enormous chunk of the Old Star Kingdom’s Gross System Product. And as our industrial exports drop, the resultant drop in shipping’s also going to have at least some effect on our Junction fees.

A Rising Thunder said:
Nor was that all Beowulf was doing. Dozens of Beowulfan repair and service ships had already streamed through the Junction, and the nuclei of new space stations were already taking shape—two each, this time, around Manticore and Sphinx.

Are you familiar with the doubling equation?

Lets say that Beowulf ships could build the first station manufacturing module in 6 months (1KM diameter).

This module plus the beowulf ships could build a second module in 3 more months (9 total)

The third module would be completed in 2 more months, or 11 months.

#4 = 1.5 = 1 year plus 2 weeks
#5 = 1.25 months
The beowulf ships leave
#6 = 1.25 months, 1 year 3 months, each of 5 stations (2 manticore, 2 sphinx, 1 gryphon) are building one manufacturing module a month.

There will be 10 manufacturing modules for each station in 86 more days.

At the end of 2 years, there will be 30 manufacturing modules for each station.

At the end of 3 years, there will be 232 manufacturing modules for each station, with a new one built in less than a day.

If we presume that 50% of the manufacturing module goes to building more modules and the other 50% to starship and export manufacturing:

#1 in 6 months full use of the beowulf ships.
#2 in 4 more months, 10 total.
#3 in 3 more months, 13 total.
#4 in 72 days, 15 1/2 months total.
#5 in 60 days 17 1/2 months total.

At the end of 2 years, there is 11 modules, The beowulf building ships can go home, each station can build a new module in 36 days PLUS enough starship components to build a new SD in less than a year, PLUS additional componets for export.

In three years there is 26 manufacturing modules per station and a new one being built every 14 days.

In 4 years there is 72 modules per station with new manufacturing modules being built every 5 days.

In the end of 5 years there will be 200 manufacturing modules, with a new module completed in less than 2 days.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by kzt   » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:49 am

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darrell wrote:
A Rising Thunder, chapter 28 June 1922 wrote: Much of the system’s consumer manufacturing still existed,
... clipped ...


http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/282/0
" Opposing viewpoint #2: Since every single thing Manticore produces was produced in the space stations, the civilian Manticoran economy is going to come grinding to a halt as we run out of spare parts for air cars, air lorries, agricultural implements, etc. Apparently there is some belief that this will lead to famine, mass starvation, and anarchy...."
"All right, on to Opposing Viewpoint #2. There is actually more validity to this point than to the other one, but from what I seem to be hearing, people are going way, way overboard on it. Yes, the vast bulk of the Star Kingdom 's civilian industry was concentrated in the space stations. Yes, the vast bulk of that industry was destroyed along with the military shipyards and building facilities. Yes, the Star Kingdom is facing a decided and potentially serious shortage of spare parts, agricultural equipment, transportation infrastructure, etc."
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by kzt   » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:58 am

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darrell wrote:In the end of 5 years there will be 200 manufacturing modules, with a new module completed in less than 2 days.

And if I recruit 9 women I can produce a kid in a month...

That ignores the minor issue with if repair ships can build a 1km diameter construction facility (which, btw, would mass a billion tons) in 6 months they can also build all of the RHN's 5th fleet in 6 months, as it requires much lower tech equipment to be manufactured and installed.

Which also means that the GA is toast, because I bet other people have repair ships too.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Jun 07, 2016 1:31 am

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darrell wrote:No DAVID WEBBER said in "Mission of Honor, chapter 30":
“There’s no point pretending we haven’t just taken an enormous hit, Your Majesty,” he said now, meeting her eyes squarely, his Gryphon burr more pronounced than usual. “Our carrying trade isn’t going to be directly affected, and our Junction fees probably aren’t going to fall too significantly—not immediately, at least. The indirect effect on our carrying trade is going to make itself felt pretty quickly, though. As Charlotte’s just pointed out, for all intents and purposes we’ve lost our industrial sector completely. That means an awful lot of manufactured goods we used to be exporting aren’t going to be available now. That accounts for a significant percentage of our total carrying trade—not to mention an enormous chunk of the Old Star Kingdom’s Gross System Product. And as our industrial exports drop, the resultant drop in shipping’s also going to have at least some effect on our Junction fees. .
Doesnt that quote predate the escalation of the confrontation with the League, and the activation of Laocoon?
Just after Oyster Bay Manticore did still have its carrying trade and financial clearinghouse role to the League.

But after Byng got manipulated into blowing away peaceful Manicoran destroyers and Manticore withdrew its freighters from the League and closed ever wormhole it could reach to League traffic those revenue streams logically had to have suffered massive reductions...
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:04 am

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Repair ships building space stations are only one piece of the calculations. You have to have the equipment and materials to make the stations more than just shells.

Since we have been repeatedly told that ALL (well, almost all) of the orbital manufacturing was on the three now destroyed Manticorian space stations, that leads to the question of where the equipment is going to come from.

There are several sources but, at least initially. they are going to have to use similar equipment (and materials like communications cable, chips and all sorts of things) manufactured both by and at Beowulf, Haven, the Aldermani systems and probably Erwhon to -other than Manticore standards and tech- existing capasity of each of those entities before any of the manufacturing by thoes entities converts (or new builds) existing manufacturing to produce Manticore level and type tech equipment to 1) support the Manticore military & 2) rebuilds the non-military/civilian goods production for both domestic and export.

Can they do that. Sure. Manticore might not get local designed and manufactured air car production back into operations for more than 5 years, but they will be cranking out all they molycrylic chips and componant parts for everything they consider nessisary and critical to the defence of the Empire and support of the rebuilding of the industrial infrastructure.

Even of Manticore flagged merchant shipping isn't going to be moving a lot of SEM produced goods (from the Manticore Home Systems) for a while, they are still available to start moving goods other than in the SL and it's controlled areas. The revenue from that is going to help support both those ships and the Manticore economy. Not that this will be easy. Lots of ships but quite a bit less of areas and systems with which they can operate since they have to stay out of SL systems for now. VERY lean times for the Manticore merchant marine.
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