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Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory

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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by noblehunter   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:34 pm

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It's also worth pointing out that having Thunderbolt-level Haven tech is still not good enough. The SLN needs Apollo and/or defenses designed for it to have any effective military strength. If only because they won't be able to keep commanders alive long enough to learn how to fight.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by kzt   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:13 pm

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No they don't. They need mass instead. Luckily they outnumber them by 250 to 1, so that is perfectly feasible.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by drothgery   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:41 pm

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kzt wrote:No they don't. They need mass instead. Luckily they outnumber them by 250 to 1, so that is perfectly feasible.

Erm... they don't even outnumber the Star Empire by 250 to 1. They certainly don't outnumber the Grand Alliance by more than 30 to 1 (by a rough count of star systems excluding the protectorates, it's less than 10:1; it's less than 15:1 for just Haven). Which is not good enough to beat Apollo without Apollo.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by kzt   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:50 pm

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drothgery wrote:Erm... they don't even outnumber the Star Empire by 250 to 1. They certainly don't outnumber the Grand Alliance by more than 30 to 1 (by a rough count of star systems excluding the protectorates, it's less than 10:1; it's less than 15:1 for just Haven). Which is not good enough to beat Apollo without Apollo.

Advanced industrial systems, yes. There are no Manticore industrialized systems, and about 8-10 Haven systems and Beowulf. There are somewhere between 1000 to 1500, with most of these individual systems having more population than the entire SKM.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by darrell   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 5:28 pm

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kzt wrote:
drothgery wrote:Erm... they don't even outnumber the Star Empire by 250 to 1. They certainly don't outnumber the Grand Alliance by more than 30 to 1 (by a rough count of star systems excluding the protectorates, it's less than 10:1; it's less than 15:1 for just Haven). Which is not good enough to beat Apollo without Apollo.

Advanced industrial systems, yes. There are no Manticore industrialized systems, and about 8-10 Haven systems and Beowulf. There are somewhere between 1000 to 1500, with most of these individual systems having more population than the entire SKM.


most of the SL systems are not manufacturing systems.
1. The SKM before the yaweta strike was an exporter of manufactured goods.
2. The SL core and shell are net importers of goods. (produced in the protectorates, manticore, and possibly elseware.)
3. Before the Yaweta strike SL analysts estimated that the GA economy will surpass the SL economy in 10-15 years.

Given the above 3 facts, at best the SL GDP can be no more than 5 times that of the GA.

In 15 years, if the GA economy grows 5% faster than the SL, it will be relatively 208% stronger, so the SL GDP could only be twice as strong and the GA GDP would surpass it. (example 3% vs 8% growth.)

The GA economy must grow an average of 8% faster than the SL (example 3% vs 11%) in order fot the GA GDP to exceed the SL in 14 1/2 years if the SL economy were 3 times bigger.

The GA economy must grow an average of 10% faster than the SL in order fot the GA GDP to exceed the SL in 14 1/2 years if the SL economy were 4 times bigger.

The GA economy must grow an average of 12% faster than the SL in order fot the GA GDP to exceed the SL in 14 1/2 years if the SL economy were 5 times bigger.

I am not aware of any country in the world having more than a 12% growth rate more than 2 years in a row, let alone 10-15. and this assumes that the SL has no economic growth.

18% growth rate = 10 times stronger in 15 years
36% growth rate = 100 times stronger in 15 years
45% growth rate = 250 times stronger in 15 years
74% growth rate = 250 times stronger in 10 years

RFC has said that the original star kingdom is and continues to be the best economy on a per capita basis.

The average haven system population equala the average SL system, which means that in population the SL only has about 15-20 times the population of the GA, not 250.

The fact that most haven citizens are richer than most SL citizens, and the original SKM has the biggest GDP of any human system means that the total GDP of the SL is nor more than 3-5 times that of the GA.
<><><><><><><><><><><><>
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by kzt   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 5:37 pm

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darrell wrote:RFC has said that the original star kingdom is and continues to be the best economy on a per capita basis.

Pretty hard to do given that they have no manufacturing exports, they have no trade with 90% of the human population, they have cut off 90% of the human population from the wormholes (which means no income from them), and the people they are not trading with are not doing financial transactions with them either. And given that they are trying to redo a centuries worth of capital investments in 2 years, they are running horrific deficits.

It's all that special honorverse economics, because reasons. And plot.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by drothgery   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:19 pm

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kzt wrote:There are somewhere between 1000 to 1500, with most of these individual systems having more population than the entire SKM.

Umm, cite?

RFC has said outright that the majority of systems in the League are less populous than just the Manticore binary system (even if it's something that he seems to forget when setting the population for specific systems), and given the delegate math in the Chamber of Stars this pretty much has to be the case. And despite it not making much sense, the Manticore binary system is less populous than Trevor's Star. The number of League members with a population greater than the ~10B of Manticore + Trevor's Star + Lynx is almost certainly in the single digits (and one of those is Beowulf).

And we have no idea how many heavily industrialized systems there are in the Honorverse, inside the League or outside of it, so there's no basis for assuming that over half of League members qualify as such..
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by n7axw   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:27 pm

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kzt wrote:
darrell wrote:RFC has said that the original star kingdom is and continues to be the best economy on a per capita basis.

Pretty hard to do given that they have no manufacturing exports, they have no trade with 90% of the human population, they have cut off 90% of the human population from the wormholes (which means no income from them), and the people they are not trading with are not doing financial transactions with them either. And given that they are trying to redo a centuries worth of capital investments in 2 years, they are running horrific deficits.

It's all that special honorverse economics, because reasons. And plot.


Manticore will recover its industrial plant and it will be new and modernized. How? By handwavium if nothing else. The economics will serve the story and not the other way around.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by drothgery   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:28 pm

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darrell wrote:2. The SL core and shell are net importers of goods. (produced in the protectorates, manticore, and possibly elseware.)

Erm... as much as you're arguing from the same side I am here, mostly, cite?

It seems much more likely to me that the economies of the protectorates are only of consequence to the League because of their disproportionate effect on the League's revenue stream (which is only the case because of the League government's limited ability to levy taxes). Every specific case of a protectorate (or poorer Verge world) that we know anything about except the Maya sector seems to be exporting raw materials or agricultural products and importing manufactured goods.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by kzt   » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:05 pm

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n7axw wrote:Manticore will recover its industrial plant and it will be new and modernized. How? By handwavium if nothing else. The economics will serve the story and not the other way around.
-

I remember when one of the attractions of the series was that it all held together logically....
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