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Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory

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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by SharkHunter   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:06 am

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Very quick snip...
Quite likely longer than that, since League industry is, even at its best, less efficient than Manticore's.


Was. Keep in mind that Manticore's warship industry just got nuked by Oyster Bay into 3rd world state as far as the Honorverse goes. Which is why the Detweilers about pooped bricks when Haven signed up to help. I imagine they figured that Beowulf would stick with the RMN, but...
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by kzt   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 3:00 am

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SharkHunter wrote:Very quick snip...
Quite likely longer than that, since League industry is, even at its best, less efficient than Manticore's.


Was. Keep in mind that Manticore's warship industry just got nuked by Oyster Bay into 3rd world state as far as the Honorverse goes. Which is why the Detweilers about pooped bricks when Haven signed up to help. I imagine they figured that Beowulf would stick with the RMN, but...

Nah, Manticore will have their full industrial production again running full tilt in a few years starting from nothing, while will obviously take decades for anyone who wants to build a military shipyard starting with a roughly comparable technology level, millions of trained workers and a huge modern industrial base. Because reasons.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by Kytheros   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:57 am

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SharkHunter wrote:Very quick snip...
Quite likely longer than that, since League industry is, even at its best, less efficient than Manticore's.


Was. Keep in mind that Manticore's warship industry just got nuked by Oyster Bay into 3rd world state as far as the Honorverse goes. Which is why the Detweilers about pooped bricks when Haven signed up to help. I imagine they figured that Beowulf would stick with the RMN, but...

kzt wrote:Nah, Manticore will have their full industrial production again running full tilt in a few years starting from nothing, while will obviously take decades for anyone who wants to build a military shipyard starting with a roughly comparable technology level, millions of trained workers and a huge modern industrial base. Because reasons.

Manticoran industrial superiority was more than just the physical infrastructure. It was the education, the mindset, etc. At least, per Detweiler thinking about and comparing Darius (better than nearly anywhere in the League) to not being as good as Manticore, but replicating the Manticoran edge would have been impossible for Darius.

Actually, based on Manticore, an average Core world isn't going to have a particularly large number of trained workers.


At any rate, I'm assuming that a purpose-designed infrastructure is going to be as or more efficient than an organically grown infrastructure, and as a result Manticore industrial efficiency when they rebuild is going to be as good or better than it was.


I expect that the average Core world, based on their being less industrially efficient than Manticore, will be somewhat slower and less efficient in their industrial buildup as well.
I expect that they would end up taking about as long as Manticore, although perhaps a few months to a year longer to reach the same point in the infrastructure buildup. This is due to the efficiency gap and the fact that Manticore knows more about this kind of thing than an average League Core World, and so will have fewer mistakes in the infrastructure buildup process, plus better designs/plans for that buildup.

In addition, even if a Core world can build infrastructure to start laying down and constructing ship types at the same time Manticore can, the Core world isn't building anything better than it has the technology for. Plus, going by textev and word of RFC, most Core worlds, even after they have the physical infrastructure, wouldn't have warship designs or designers. Frankly, for most of the Core worlds, building the physical infrastructure is likely going to be the quickest and easiest part.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by SharkHunter   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 8:55 am

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--snipping--
Kytheros wrote:
kzt wrote:Very quick snip...
Quite likely longer than that, since League industry is, even at its best, less efficient than Manticore's.

Sharkhunter wrote: Was. Keep in mind that Manticore's warship industry just got nuked by Oyster Bay into 3rd world state as far as the Honorverse goes. Which is why the Detweilers about pooped bricks when Haven signed up to help. I imagine they figured that Beowulf would stick with the RMN, but...

...
Manticoran industrial superiority was more than just the physical infrastructure. It was the education, the mindset, etc. At least, per Detweiler thinking about and comparing Darius (better than nearly anywhere in the League) to not being as good as Manticore, but replicating the Manticoran edge would have been impossible for Darius.

Agreement on nearly all points and a well done, well thought out response. Like yourself even in this fictonal univers I don't believe the SL would ever match Manticore because of mindset, innovation and the "stored tech knowledge" saved when Weyland evacuated.

But I also believe that David was very careful to position Manticore's strength as coming from a well deserved moral high ground. That's the win which Haven joined to, that Maya and Erewhon respect, which let 10th Fleet literally attack parts of the SL and SL controlled territory, annex Talbot, and all of the parties know they are joining an entity that does it's (imperfect but pretty damn good) best to practice what it preaches.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by darrell   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 12:09 pm

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SharkHunter wrote:--snipping--
Kytheros wrote:Manticoran industrial superiority was more than just the physical infrastructure. It was the education, the mindset, etc. At least, per Detweiler thinking about and comparing Darius (better than nearly anywhere in the League) to not being as good as Manticore, but

replicating the Manticoran edge would have been impossible for Darius.

Agreement on nearly all points and a well done, well thought out response. Like yourself even in this fictonal univers I don't believe the SL would ever match Manticore because of mindset, innovation and the "stored tech knowledge" saved when Weyland evacuated.

But I also believe that David was very careful to position Manticore's strength as coming from a well deserved moral high ground. That's the win which Haven joined to, that Maya and Erewhon respect, which let 10th Fleet literally attack parts of the SL and SL controlled territory, annex Talbot, and all of the parties know they are joining an entity that does it's (imperfect but pretty damn good) best to practice what it preaches.

Went back to what RFC had to say, underline is my emphasis:
Mission of Honor wrote: “The damage to the dispersed orbital yards is almost as bad. At this moment, my best figures are that fifteen of them—none of which had units under construction—are undamaged, and another eight are probably repairable, although the ships under construction have been so badly damaged we’re probably going to have to break them up and start over rather than trying to repair and complete them.
--snipping--
That means that what we have in commission and working up at Trevor’s Star now is all we’re going to have for at least two T-years. For any capital ships, the delay will be more like four T-years. Minimum.”
--snipping--
“What about the repair facilities in Trevor’s Star, Ham?” Prime Minister Grantville asked quietly, and White Haven looked at his brother.
“That’s still intact,” he admitted, “and it’s going to play a huge part in regenerating yard capacity within the time frame I just mentioned, Willie. But it’s primarily repair capacity. It was never intended for sustained, high-volume component production, so it’s going to require a lot of modification before it can really make its presence felt. And, more importantly, we’re going to have to divert a hell of a lot of its potential capacity to something we’re going to need even worse.”
--snipping--
At this time, I have no firm estimate for how long it’s going to take to get Trevor’s Star up for missile production—we’re still inventorying our mobile repair and construction capabilities, and I’m sure some of them will help—but I’ll be extraordinarily surprised if we can get new missile lines into production in less than ten T-months.
--snipping--
We’re also making plans to tow the Junction industrial platforms back into the inner system,
--snipping--
Somehow we’re going to have to prioritize the workers we have left between essential construction tasks and training an entirely new workforce.”
--snipping--
That means an awful lot of manufactured goods we used to be exporting aren’t going to be available now. That accounts for a significant percentage of our total carrying trade—not to mention an enormous chunk of the Old Star Kingdom’s Gross System Product. And as our industrial exports drop, the resultant drop in shipping’s also going to have at least some effect on our Junction fees.

So the estimate was less than 5 years to fully recover, with NO outside help.

With trevors star able to build components instead of missiles, and haven supplying manufacturing equipment, I would guess that manticore could be fully recovered (except for paying for it) in 1-2 years, and the next manticoran built SD in less than 3 years instead of more than 4 years.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by George J. Smith   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 1:38 pm

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[quote="Mission of Honor"] “The damage to the dispersed orbital yards is almost as bad. At this moment, my best figures are that fifteen of them—none of which had units under construction—are undamaged, and another eight are probably repairable, although the ships under construction have been so badly damaged we’re probably going to have to break them up and start over rather than trying to repair and complete them.
--snipping--
That means that what we have in commission and working up at Trevor’s Star now is all we’re going to have for at least two T-years. For any capital ships, the delay will be more like four T-years. Minimum.”
--snipping--


I would assume that with the return of the Grendelsbane workers, Manticore would be able to operate some of the 15 slips that were not damaged, given the stated delay for the capital ships I also assume that none of the 15 slips were capable of building capital ships.

Taking in to consideration the number of RMN capital ships that were working up at Trevor's star, plus the capital ships from Haven, I think Manticore would be able to field quite a few sub-wallers within a relatively short (2 years) time, so things are not as bleak as they seem to be for the GA.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by munroburton   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:02 pm

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George J. Smith wrote:I would assume that with the return of the Grendelsbane workers, Manticore would be able to operate some of the 15 slips that were not damaged, given the stated delay for the capital ships I also assume that none of the 15 slips were capable of building capital ships.

Taking in to consideration the number of RMN capital ships that were working up at Trevor's star, plus the capital ships from Haven, I think Manticore would be able to field quite a few sub-wallers within a relatively short (2 years) time, so things are not as bleak as they seem to be for the GA.


Unfortunately, the dispersed yards are little more than assembly locations - floating scaffolding which holds the parts of a ship under construction together until it is completed. They were supplied with everything they required from the stations or other dedicated manufacturing platforms. Without those, the slips are not very useful, although they certainly can still be used once new sources of parts are established.

I don't see things as 'bleak' for the GA. The situation was indeed bleak for Manticore and Grayson, but Haven joining them totally reversed their situation.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by darrell   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:20 pm

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munroburton wrote:
George J. Smith wrote:I would assume that with the return of the Grendelsbane workers, Manticore would be able to operate some of the 15 slips that were not damaged, given the stated delay for the capital ships I also assume that none of the 15 slips were capable of building capital ships.

Taking in to consideration the number of RMN capital ships that were working up at Trevor's star, plus the capital ships from Haven, I think Manticore would be able to field quite a few sub-wallers within a relatively short (2 years) time, so things are not as bleak as they seem to be for the GA.


Unfortunately, the dispersed yards are little more than assembly locations - floating scaffolding which holds the parts of a ship under construction together until it is completed. They were supplied with everything they required from the stations or other dedicated manufacturing platforms. Without those, the slips are not very useful, although they certainly can still be used once new sources of parts are established.

I don't see things as 'bleak' for the GA. The situation was indeed bleak for Manticore and Grayson, but Haven joining them totally reversed their situation.


Sme of the parts Manticore should be able to get from haven, impeller nodes, fusion plants, etc. Other things such as armor fabrication would be part of the disperced yards.

I don't see a reason that they can't start constructing CA and below in 3 months from the forming of the GA, BCL in 6 months, SDP in a year. The actual construction time might be longer, but in the mean time the 15 dispersed yards can be used for repair and upgrade.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 3:51 pm

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darrell wrote:F) If it holds together, The SL will take at least 5 years to match what they know of GA technology. It will take them even longer to match Apollo, not to mention anything else that the GA can come up with in the next few years.


And note that the SL actually knows very little of the GA tech. They know of two-stage missiles (but don't realize they're shipboard missiles), that GA EW shreds their defenses and that it appears they have FTL-comm stealthy recon drones.

They have no idea of some of the essential but non-obvious developments such as the micro fusion plants without which much of that advanced tech can't be powered.

They also don't know GA missiles can have ballistic components before launch or between stages--without which the stacked salvos can't be done, thus causing them to seriously underestimate GA salvo size.

Trying to duplicate the tech they can see will fail because of the hidden stuff. They'll have to go back and figure out what else there is that makes the visible stuff work--and they'll be working in the dark there.

I would be very surprised if they could duplicate anything but the dual-drive missile in 5 years and a SL dual-drive missile will have abysmal accuracy.
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Re: Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory
Post by Jonathan_S   » Sun Jun 05, 2016 6:04 pm

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Loren Pechtel wrote:
And note that the SL actually knows very little of the GA tech. They know of two-stage missiles (but don't realize they're shipboard missiles), that GA EW shreds their defenses and that it appears they have FTL-comm stealthy recon drones.

They have no idea of some of the essential but non-obvious developments such as the micro fusion plants without which much of that advanced tech can't be powered.

They also don't know GA missiles can have ballistic components before launch or between stages--without which the stacked salvos can't be done, thus causing them to seriously underestimate GA salvo size.

At least the Mesan provided tech rep to Monica already knew about the micro fusion plant for missiles, and was sharing that info with Monica. (But hadn't thought through the implications for ECM broadcast power; until confronted with inbound Dazzlers [oops]. It's possible that that micro fusion info has already been shared with the SLN.

And even Catafracts appear to be able to support a ballistic segment. It's a capability inherent in how multi drive/stage impeller missiles work. You almost can't avoid realizing it as you always need to let the first drive's wedge go down, ever so briefly, before bringing the second drive online - otherwise you get blown missiles. A balletic segment is hardly more than thanking the delay timer that defaulted to as short as possibly and cranking it way, way, up. If the SLN wasn't briefed on that capability when "Technodyne" provided the Catapracts they should realize the ability exists very soon.
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