Louis R wrote:Just a note:
Historically, Alexanders do _not_ arise out of the death of anything. They arise equipped with the highly efficient and lethally advanced military machinery built up by several generations of their predecessors.
As a case in point, Alexander of Macedon would have been a zerch without his father's army and the arrogance of youth and inexperience. [the fact that the Persian Empire happened to be in one of its Solarian-League-like periods was a big help. Any of the more competent Shahs would have eaten him for lunch.]
Any Honorverse Alexanders will have to arise out of Manticore, Haven, Grayson [none of which have the political environment that would permit it] or Darius. Maya Sector would be another possibility, but I think they're a little bit to far from the military bleeding edge to be potent enough.
And in any case, one should always bear in mind the fate of Alexander's empire
smr wrote:HB does have a point!
Imagine some of the SL industrial powerhouses banding together for protection. An Alexandar the Great type arises from the apparent death of the SL to storm across the Galaxy. The facts are that GA technical edge does not mean that the SL or SL successor have to catch up or surpass the GA. Quantity has a quality all of it's own. Just ask the Germans in WWII, the Sherman tank was an inferior product in comparison to the German tanks. The problem was their was way more American tanks produced than German tanks. By developing good artillery tactics the Americans found a way to neutralize the German tanks. (They stole the artillery tactics from the Germans of WWI.) A few strategic upgrades to the SL fleet, then the quantity can become decisive. The Russians proved that size and industrial potential have a quality all its own in WW2. The Germans virtually wiped out most of the Russian military and industry during the first year of war with Russia. So size has quantity all of its own.
Now, I think Honor's plan will effectively neutralize the SL but it is not guaranteed. To many outside factors can affect the strategy. Remember, its always easier to duplicate known military technology or come out with a counter to known military technology.
What do really know about what's in SL research department? Not much! Second, it's always easier to duplicate known technology due to variety of ways.
An Alexander could rise out of the Andermani as well, although that's not particularly likely either.
Maya/Erewhon, while not out at the cutting edge to take Manticore, Grayson, or the Andies, nor large enough to take on Haven, are starting with the same tech base that Haven got access to, so I'd call them sufficiently technologically advanced that an Alexander could be viable, although, again I'd agree it's unlikely to occur.
Sigs wrote:smr wrote:HB does have a point!
Imagine some of the SL industrial powerhouses banding together for protection.
That will likely happen and with a proper plan the GA will keep them friendly. Any successor state does no necessarily want to go to war with the GA unless the GA behaves in a manner that indicates they need to.
smr wrote:The facts are that GA technical edge does not mean that the SL or SL successor have to catch up or surpass the GA. Quantity has a quality all of it's own.
Yes quantity is a quality all of its own IF the technological difference was not so great that it completely negates the quantity.
smr wrote: A few strategic upgrades to the SL fleet, then the quantity can become decisive.
Like what? They can cut the technological gap across the board and be within shouting distance of the GA and their quantitative advantage would be decisive but they still need to increase across the board.
smr wrote:The Russians proved that size and industrial potential have a quality all its own in WW2. The Germans virtually wiped out most of the Russian military and industry during the first year of war with Russia. So size has quantity all of its own.
They wiped out most of the Russian military but the Russian industry was mostly moved outside of reach for the Germans. Even though there might have been a noticeable drop in industrial output it was eventually back in service once it was moved.
smr wrote: Remember, its always easier to duplicate known military technology or come out with a counter to known military technology.
No one is arguing that point, what we are suggesting is that the GA's advantage will allow it to keep the SLN from duplicating the military technology long enough for the league to collapse and if they make generous peace treaties with any successor states technological parity would not matter.
smr wrote:What do really know about what's in SL research department? Not much! Second, it's always easier to duplicate known technology due to variety of ways
Not all that much, but what are the chances it is any different than the rest of the SLN? And how much of their ship building capabilities and research is in the hands of corporations that belong to or are tied to the MA in one way or another?
Agree with Sigs entirely here.
The goal of the GA and the MAlign is to fracture the League into small successor states. The MAlign wants to reassemble them in their image, but the GA wants to establish relationships with the successor states similar to that of the pre-war relationships between, say, Manticore, the Andermani, and/or Erewhon, or the systems that Manticore assembled into the first Manticoran alliance.
The GA's technological advantage is sufficient to negate the quantity that the League currently has, and in order for the League to even try to field the quantity necessary to over come the GA's quality and quantity, even without the need for R&D, the League would require probably at least 5 years of sustained and unified effort towards that goal. Quite likely longer than that, since League industry is, even at its best, less efficient than Manticore's.
Trying to counter the technological advantage would take even longer than that. Probably at least ten years, if not longer.
Frankly, the League is likely to collapse in less than two years - before it can even start to build the quantity of its current stuff, much less have reduced the tech disadvantage.
Quantity has a Quality all its own only works when those relying on Quantity are close enough on a one for one basis with Quality.
Think Safehold - Thirsk points out that they don't need to be as good as the Charisian Navy, as long as they're good enough on a one for one basis and have a sufficient numerical edge. There, technology was closer to parity, and the quality/quantity ratio was a lot closer to 1:2 or 2:3 or thereabouts. Here, though, the League needs a rather massive numerical edge to even have a chance against GA quality.
If the League were to have a magic wand waved over their reserve, and they were all brought up to current SLN standards and fully manned, the League would still not have the quantity to take on GA quality. That's how bad things are for the League. The SLN literally has to run Manticoran ships out of ammo. And, even after that, the SLN needs to get into Cataphract range and then run the Manticoran ships out of CMs, and then manage to put enough missiles to get through the EW and PDLCs in enough quality to hurt the Manticoran ships, and/or after running the Manticorans out of ammo somehow get into energy range. Manticoran mobility makes that difficult.
If you need to run the other guy out of ammo, and pin him against something he can't uncover, before you even have a chance to get into your engagement range, you aren't close to being good enough to where Quantity takes on a Quality of its own, unless you have a rather ludicrous numerical advantage.
Weird Harold wrote:smr wrote:Now, I think Honor's plan will effectively neutralize the SL but it is not guaranteed. To many outside factors can affect the strategy. Remember, its always easier to duplicate known military technology or come out with a counter to known military technology.
If it were
just Manticore/GA there might be a chance of the League surviving. But it is NOT just Manticore/GA working to destroy the SL...
The MAlign and the Renaissance Factor as a separate entity are also working to break the SL into pieces they can absorb into the RF or create enough chaos to keep the fragments occupied until they can be absorbed.
It wouldn't surprise me to find the Andermani looking to make a profit or expand sol-ward, or one of the other larger verge polities picking off a few systems.
There's also the internal pressures and fissure that already exist.
The League might survive any one of the forces tearing it apart, but not all of them.
The Andies probably won't expand towards/into the League/former League, as they've got their hands full absorbing Andermani Silesia.
The League would have eventually collapsed on its own without outside interference, but with it? Two years, tops. I fully expect that the League will have completely collapsed before Manticore has finished rebuilding its orbital infrastructure to the point it can build capital ships again.
