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MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets

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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by cthia   » Tue May 31, 2016 7:12 am

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SharkHunter wrote:--snipping--
Kytheros wrote:Concur completely.

Along with the first point, attacking Old Chicago with an EE violation would be a rallying point to pull the League together in such a way that it would actually work. And, it's been quite clear that the MAlign wants the League to break apart, and is engaging in operations to make that happen.
While I don't disagree, from an "optimality" standpoint, it's been argued that an EE violation is the one thing guaranteed to "bring the SL together". So to cthia's original point, my proposal as "easy" is as follows:
#1
The MAlign is currently on the run, targeted by Manticore. They need to keep the GA busy while they do hidey-hole plus finish Darius attack forces.

#2
For the sake of argument, let's assume that a strike on Old Chicago is done by demanding the surrender of the planet first, and then the deliberate hit, and that at least one of the Mandarins is off planet or gets far enough out of blast range.

#3
The SLN is the only thing really keeping the Verge in check, so getting a big chunk of the SLN engaged in whacking Manticore [which isn't goint to work] is "little lever big effect" in dismantling everything. End of that story, not much SLN left.

#4
Suppose while all that is going on, enough of the Darius ships are available to target the ships maintaining the blockade of the wormhole network captured during Lacoon II?

Okay.... shred liberally. Considering that RFC gets to change all of our minds as soon as SoV is out in eARC form. [Drools...]


darrell wrote:why is everyone insisting that the EE violation has to happen to earth for it to be effective?

it could be an EE violation to ANY core world that would bring the SL back togeather. (if the SLN captain and crew manages to keep their mouths shut?)

Or better yet, how about have the malign or the mandarins do an EE violation on Mesa?

That's a nasty and brilliant thought Darrell! Been listening to pillow talk from the lovely Anisimovna, I see. I think you're on to something too. An EE violation against Mesa would be brilliant because it would automatically point to Manticore. Because they were the last suspects seen in a heated confrontation with the victim - circumstantial evidence.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by Sigs   » Tue May 31, 2016 8:29 am

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kzt wrote:
Can they? Exactly how will you pull that off, considering that you need to leave at least 1/2 the RMN at home (and I'd strongly suggest not uncovering Haven either) to avoid the MA coming back.
How much fleet do they need to level a system? Considering that any SLN ships encountered would be just mobile targets the GA could take it's time and move from system to system destroying anything that looks like industry.

The SLN can't do a thing and the GA can take it's sweet time within reason.


kzt wrote:You haven't recently read what David has said the general impression (deliberately provided by the SLs media) the people of the SL have about the Neobarbarians like Manticore, have you? Can you name one SL character who likes Manticore?


I didn't say they like Manticore, what I said was self interest might allow them to think clearly. Unless we want to stipulate that every system government in the League is full exclusively of idiots we can assume that as some point someone will ask the right questions and this will unravel.
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by cthia   » Tue May 31, 2016 9:10 am

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SharkHunter wrote:--snipping--
Kytheros wrote:Concur completely.

Along with the first point, attacking Old Chicago with an EE violation would be a rallying point to pull the League together in such a way that it would actually work. And, it's been quite clear that the MAlign wants the League to break apart, and is engaging in operations to make that happen.
While I don't disagree, from an "optimality" standpoint, it's been argued that an EE violation is the one thing guaranteed to "bring the SL together". So to cthia's original point, my proposal as "easy" is as follows:
#1
The MAlign is currently on the run, targeted by Manticore. They need to keep the GA busy while they do hidey-hole plus finish Darius attack forces.

#2
For the sake of argument, let's assume that a strike on Old Chicago is done by demanding the surrender of the planet first, and then the deliberate hit, and that at least one of the Mandarins is off planet or gets far enough out of blast range.

#3
The SLN is the only thing really keeping the Verge in check, so getting a big chunk of the SLN engaged in whacking Manticore [which isn't goint to work] is "little lever big effect" in dismantling everything. End of that story, not much SLN left.

#4
Suppose while all that is going on, enough of the Darius ships are available to target the ships maintaining the blockade of the wormhole network captured during Lacoon II?

Okay.... shred liberally. Considering that RFC gets to change all of our minds as soon as SoV is out in eARC form. [Drools...]


darrell wrote:why is everyone insisting that the EE violation has to happen to earth for it to be effective?

it could be an EE violation to ANY core world that would bring the SL back togeather. (if the SLN captain and crew manages to keep their mouths shut?)

Or better yet, how about have the malign or the mandarins do an EE violation on Mesa?

cthia wrote:That's a nasty and brilliant thought Darrell! Been listening to pillow talk from the lovely Anisimovna, I see. I think you're on to something too. An EE violation against Mesa would be brilliant because it would automatically point to Manticore. Because they were the last suspects seen in a heated confrontation with the victim - circumstantial evidence.

IOW, regarding Manticore, any attack on Mesa goes to motive.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by kzt   » Tue May 31, 2016 1:25 pm

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SharkHunter wrote:#3
The SLN is the only thing really keeping the Verge in check, so getting a big chunk of the SLN engaged in whacking Manticore [which isn't goint to work] is "little lever big effect" in dismantling everything. End of that story, not much SLN left.

The verge is roughly akin to the United States Unincorporated Territories. What would be the impact on the US economy of Tutuila declaring independence? How about the economic effects on the Netherlands of Bonaire declaring independence? How slow a news days would it have to be for either to make front page of the Washington Post?
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by Duckk   » Tue May 31, 2016 1:36 pm

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The US doesn't generate any meaningful revenue from the unincorporated territories. The Solarian League gets 30% of its revenue from the various fees and tariffs they leverage on the protectorates. That's not to mention the effect of losing a literal captive market, and what that means for consumption and production back in the Shell and Core.
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by cthia   » Tue May 31, 2016 2:01 pm

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kzt wrote:
cthia wrote:The Mandarins? They can deliver a miracle to themselves - with the overall best interest of the League, you see. "The needs of the many"... yatta yatta yatta...

I doubt it. They would be getting all blown up too.

cthia wrote:Not if they arranged for themselves to be fashionably late to the party because they were all aboard a ship in space doing... whatever.

A kinetic strike against their own government to decapitate their civilian command structure would be genius. That would leave them in charge to take the gorilla by the gonads.

Because they themselves set it up, they can make it look as much like the Manties as possible. The resultant atrocities - though self inflicted - would be a rallying cry for the League's Phoenix to rise up from the ashes. If they can then inevitably bury the GA, the truth of the actual perpetrators would forever remain buried as well.

And there would be so many points around which to rally the troops - other than the dead bodies from the cold-blooded killings. "It has always been the duty of the League's to enforce the Edict, when committed against US - it is imperative!"

The Mandarins can engineer their own turning point.

And, of course, again, this reeks of the same outlandish 'conspiracy theory' behind our own 911 attacks. "It is our own government who are responsible for some of the 911 attacks to garner favorable public opinion and therefore support."


If it's good enough for pre-diaspora DC. It's good enough for post-diaspora OC - Old Chicago.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by darrell   » Tue May 31, 2016 3:14 pm

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kzt wrote:
SharkHunter wrote:#3
The SLN is the only thing really keeping the Verge in check, so getting a big chunk of the SLN engaged in whacking Manticore [which isn't goint to work] is "little lever big effect" in dismantling everything. End of that story, not much SLN left.

The verge is roughly akin to the United States Unincorporated Territories. What would be the impact on the US economy of Tutuila declaring independence? How about the economic effects on the Netherlands of Bonaire declaring independence? How slow a news days would it have to be for either to make front page of the Washington Post?


Go back in history more than 100 years. SL and the protectorates are more like Britain and the British commonwealth. If India, Australia, and other commonwealth countries would have managed to leave the commonwealth, Brittan would have lost is source of raw materials which would have been disastrous if it couldn't get the iron, coal and other raw materials that it needed for it's factories.
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by kzt   » Tue May 31, 2016 3:26 pm

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darrell wrote:Go back in history more than 100 years. SL and the protectorates are more like Britain and the British commonwealth. If India, Australia, and other commonwealth countries would have managed to leave the commonwealth, Brittan would have lost is source of raw materials which would have been disastrous if it couldn't get the iron, coal and other raw materials that it needed for it's factories.

Everyone does asteroid mining. No big deal. Given that with the disruptions to SL trade, all the impact this would cause has already been caused.
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by Theemile   » Tue May 31, 2016 4:41 pm

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kzt wrote:
darrell wrote:Go back in history more than 100 years. SL and the protectorates are more like Britain and the British commonwealth. If India, Australia, and other commonwealth countries would have managed to leave the commonwealth, Brittan would have lost is source of raw materials which would have been disastrous if it couldn't get the iron, coal and other raw materials that it needed for it's factories.

Everyone does asteroid mining. No big deal. Given that with the disruptions to SL trade, all the impact this would cause has already been caused.


The problem is more analogous of Britain having no place to sell their factory made wares, than raw materials. Cheap plates and pans don't sell for much, but when you sell millions of them to captive audiences (not to mention stamp taxing to death everything NOT produced in Britain) you make a fortune.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: MA: Most Optimal Kinetic Strike Targets
Post by feyhunde   » Tue May 31, 2016 5:10 pm

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kzt wrote:
SharkHunter wrote:#3
The SLN is the only thing really keeping the Verge in check, so getting a big chunk of the SLN engaged in whacking Manticore [which isn't goint to work] is "little lever big effect" in dismantling everything. End of that story, not much SLN left.

The verge is roughly akin to the United States Unincorporated Territories. What would be the impact on the US economy of Tutuila declaring independence? How about the economic effects on the Netherlands of Bonaire declaring independence? How slow a news days would it have to be for either to make front page of the Washington Post?


Think less of modern overseas territories like Guam, think more of dutch colonies in Indonesia circa 1650, or British colonies in India in the 1850s, or Nauru under Japan in the 1930s.
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