Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory

"Forget the politics" sounds an awful like "forget the logistics." Or "assuming a perfectly spherical body..."

I think the original purpose of the RF disappears in the general mess. Either their socio-cultural plan goes majorly subtle as they try to maximize their post-League position or they just forget about it. Regardless, they're probably going to be one of the biggest successor states; likely a local counter-weight to the GA. I guess it depends on if the leadership are true believer MA or if they'll be more pragmatic about it.

Daryl wrote:In the midst of this spirited debate don't forget that it is RFC's universe, and if he wanted it to, anything could happen, including any of the scenarios posted here or the whole lot could be eaten by blue space hamsters if he so desired.

That said I don't hold out much for the lurking supermen theory of the Malign biding their time for a comeback. In OTL, attributes have been researched and it appears likely that people are about 50% DNA and 50% upbringing in their adult makeup. Plus there is the compensation theory that when you gain in one area you lose in another. Thus higher than average IQ may come at the cost of megalomania, and an impractical view of the universe.
A number of people here (including me) have posted over time the question of why did they do things the way they did? With lots of money and resources, why not just take themselves well away and create their own civilisation, either to prosper in isolation or to come back in in a few millennia to sort out humanity.

They want Beowulf to know that their code has been replaced by a different one all across human space. They also want to do it right under Beowulf nose.

If your job is to make me prove my position, you can stop working. Just go back to my post in this topic Sun May 29, 2016 1:35 am

In "A rising thunder" RFC has said that:

1. The economic capability of the GA will grow faster than that of the SL.

2. the combined economies of Manticore and Haven will effectively match the economic power of the League within no more than ten to fifteen T-years.”

3. League analysts don't believe that: the League will maintain its political cohesiveness long enough for us to overcome the other side’s technological advantages.

4. large portions of the league already has it's foot out the door. Quite a few systems in those regions would ask nothing more than to slip out of the League’s control.

A) Grayson made 5 times more SD's and more lighter warships every year than the SL makes, and will be fully recovered able to out-build the warships quickly.

B) Manticore made 10 times the SD's and twice the lighter warships every year than the SL makes, and will be fully recovered able to out-build the warships quickly.

C) Haven continues to build 20 times the SD's and 3 times the lighter warships every year than the SL makes.

D) The Manticore Merchant Marine is bigger than the SL Merchant marine. Those ships will not remain idle and will continue to add to the GA economy.

E) Without help, Manticore can recover from the Yawata strike withing 5 years. With the help of Haven, Beowulf, and possibly others, Manticore and grayson will be able to recover much quicker.

F) If it holds together, The SL will take at least 5 years to match what they know of GA technology. It will take them even longer to match Apollo, not to mention anything else that the GA can come up with in the next few years.

G) If it holds together, the GA economy will exceed the SL in 10-15 years.

G) All SL protectorate systems, a high proportion of the shell, and even some SL founding members would be in favor of leaving the SL. All it will take is that first stone to start an avalanche of systems leaving the SL.

H) That first stone has been set in motion in the form of Beowuld, a SL founding member leaving the SL, meaning that the SL is poised on it's own destruction.

Everything above can be proven by quotes from the books, so I HAVE PROVED MY POINTS.

Now I HOLD YOU TO THE SAME STANDARD YOU ASK OF ME.

You ask me to prove my position, I have done so.

NOW IT IS THE TIME FOR YOU TO DO THE SAME.

Prove your position!

HB of CJ wrote:Great subject matter everybody and thank you. Mr. David Weber will do what he will do. So far a superb job. We all look forward to the next couple/three books.

I do not have to prove anything. My job is to make YOU PROVE YOUR POSITION! What I can do is remind everybody that Runs For Celery has set up potential situations.

Seventeen hundred plus, (1700+) POTENTIALLY INDUSTRIALIZED core Sollie systems. Plus an unknown, (so far) number of potentially industrialized Verge systems.

Now add up all the industrialized Grand Alliance systems. Divide the big number by the smaller number. Forget the politics. Forget what they MAY DO. Poor thinking.

Instead consider what the Sollies CAN DO. Consider the level of war footing. Helpful hint: compare the USA, the USSR, Germany and Japan in World War Two. War footings.

Now consider the results of ONE nasty Mesan attack on the Manticore system. Only ONE ATTACK. Forget the methodology. Consider the impact. The results.

Now consider Mesa helping the Sollies. New tech. Almost as good as the Grand Alliances. Again, forget the politics. Concentrate on the military potential only.

The Grand Alliance does not stand a chance. Less than five, (5) years. Runs For Celery probably set it up this way. Gonna be an interesting two or three new books.

It is easy to just roll over and play along with the crowd. It is more difficult to look at stuff others ignore and then bring it to alls attention. That is my job.

Sossss ... if you read this with knee jerk emotion like exasperation, then that is bad. But ... if it gets you to start questioning your assumptions ... that is good.

Thank you. I love this Forum.

HB of CJ wrote:I do not have to prove anything. My job is to make YOU PROVE YOUR POSITION! What I can do is remind everybody that Runs For Celery has set up potential situations.

You ignore any evidence that the situation RFC has set up is multiple forces working to break the league into individual states. It is explicitly stated in textev that even if nobody does anything the League will self-destruct.

HB of CJ wrote:I do not have to prove anything. My job is to make YOU PROVE YOUR POSITION!

There's a word for someone who posts obviously stupid things to get other people worked up and respond.

That word is: TROLL.

Have a nice day.

Ultimately, does it matter.

The Malign will no doubt be destroyed.
Enough damage to the RF to stop it forming, or forming properly.
Things go on, but remember the RF planets have had Alpha's etc on them for years.
They must be cross breading with norms by now, as well as expanding their presence generally.
Apart from the actual leaders they might not know anything, probably don't.
But their sheer presence will bring about one part of the MAlign plan anyway. The uplifting of humanity.

So I predict that when the wheels come off, those members who aren't so wedded into burrying Beowolf's nose in it, will quietly continue as they have been running their own little empires and improving the population by breeding and stealth. With perhaps a gentle shift in policy towards genetic improvements.

Basically the way they should have done hundreds of years before.

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To get back to the original topic: What happens to the RF if the Haven Sector is still a major interstellar power after the SL breaks up?

I think it depends on the astrography. We don't know where any of the 11 RF planets are, other than a strong suspicion that Visigoth is 60 ly on the other side of Beowulf from Earth.

If this is a relatively compact cluster, especially with the Streak Drive, then they'll become a multi-system polity, probably with 50 to 100 or maybe more systems. Pretty big as such things go, but there's going to be a lot of unconsolidated systems on the other side of Sol, especially with their position between the Haven Sector and the rest of the League.

If they're scattered all over the place, then they may not even manage to consolidate as a single star nation, but may become several star nations.

Now, I don't think the first is correct, simply because of the way the MAlign created them by "seeding" families among the early settlers, giving them a lot of clandestine help here and there, and seeing which of them survived. Not all of them did; the 11 we have is what was left after Murphy got done with the stew.

So my answer is that they're not going to jell well enough to become a major factor in the future.

JohnRoth wrote:To get back to the original topic: What happens to the RF if the Haven Sector is still a major interstellar power after the SL breaks up?

I think it depends on the astrography. We don't know where any of the 11 RF planets are, other than a strong suspicion that Visigoth is 60 ly on the other side of Beowulf from Earth.

If this is a relatively compact cluster, especially with the Streak Drive, then they'll become a multi-system polity, probably with 50 to 100 or maybe more systems. Pretty big as such things go, but there's going to be a lot of unconsolidated systems on the other side of Sol, especially with their position between the Haven Sector and the rest of the League.

If they're scattered all over the place, then they may not even manage to consolidate as a single star nation, but may become several star nations.

Now, I don't think the first is correct, simply because of the way the MAlign created them by "seeding" families among the early settlers, giving them a lot of clandestine help here and there, and seeing which of them survived. Not all of them did; the 11 we have is what was left after Murphy got done with the stew.

So my answer is that they're not going to jell well enough to become a major factor in the future.

Depends on how much the GA knows and how careful the RF is.

If the GA finds out about the RF or even begins to suspect what that part of the plan consists of then it might get interesting for most of the RF members.

But it would also depend on how they react to the breakup of the League. If they jump a little to fast and seem a little to prepared they might make the GA suspicious.

With a bit of luck and careful movement the RF could become a major power as long as they don't move against the GA in any way.

darrell wrote:B) Manticore made 10 times the SD's and twice the lighter warships every year than the SL makes, and will be fully recovered able to out-build the warships quickly.

(Snip)

Actually, Manticore kept less than 1/2 it's light and medium construction . Grayson bought ~25 ships from DDs to CLACs during the 1sr war from Manticore. Erewhon bough all it's light units from Manticore, as did Alizon, Zanzibar (2x), Sidemore, and most of the rest of it's allies. So bump that number up just a little.

Theemile wrote:

darrell wrote:B) Manticore made 10 times the SD's and twice the lighter warships every year than the SL makes, and will be fully recovered able to out-build the warships quickly.

(Snip)

Actually, Manticore kept less than 1/2 it's light and medium construction . Grayson bought ~25 ships from DDs to CLACs during the 1sr war from Manticore. Erewhon bough all it's light units from Manticore, as did Alizon, Zanzibar (2x), Sidemore, and most of the rest of it's allies. So bump that number up just a little.

Where do you get your information? In "Short Victorious War" both Alizon and zanzabar had shipyards building BC and smaller warships.

In "Flag of Dishonor" Grayson was building their own heavy cruisers that: The heavy cruiser mounted barely half as many energy weapons as a Manticoran cruiser would have, yet those she did mount were far heavier, easily a match for most battlecruisers' beams.

In echo's of Honor, Grayson had 9 medusa SDP's in commission before manticore completed their first, so what makes you think that Grayson needed to buy CLAC's?