Just for the Halibut... What of the RF post GA victory

kzt wrote:C

Luckily for the MA the trigger happy torchie killed everyone and destroyed all the evidence that would have helped figure out what was going on, leaving only questions. Too bad, so sad. There is a reason why you shouldn't put your most ruthless, reactive and gung-ho people in charge.

Unpleasant surprises tend to cause unwise reactions in even the best of us. When all the pods were launched in manticore, Honor fired back without thinking. If she would have held her fire, then she would have still been able to capture filerta's task force almost undamaged.

The surrendered manpower ship has apparently been boobietrapped, killing the boarding party. I don't blame the torchies for presuming that the shuttles are boobietrapped as well and destroying them as a precaution.

MuonNeutrino wrote:

HB of CJ wrote:Or respectfully ... why is it so many intelligent individuals on this excellent forum fail to understand Sollie system numbers? Or industrial potential? Or political resolve? Mark 24 monkey copies? Future copied numbers? 100,000 new Sollie ships from 10,000 new yards?

With respect, I wouldn't characterize it as people here 'failing to understand' anything - we understand perfectly well what you're saying, we just think your arguments are wrong.

Not going to rehash all of the arguments again, but the main point is that you seem to be thinking the Solarian league as a coherent entity will continue to exist long enough for that (undeniable) numerical and industrial superiority to actually come into play, while the rest of us keep telling you that that's not what's going to happen. The entire point of the GA plan is to take advantage of the incredibly weak cohesion of the solarian league - the pre-existing fault lines and lack of loyalty towards the central government that Weber has already told us exist - to fragment the league into pieces too small to threaten the GA before they can gear up to crush anybody. Right now the sollies have all the numbers and industrial potential in the world, but insufficient warfighting technology to fight the GA, and by the time they have the warfighting technology, they won't have the numbers or industrial potential anymore.

Don't bother arguing, no matter what you say he will restate his "argument" without being able to explain why he believes that he is right and why you are wrong...

HB of CJ wrote:In rejecting the obvious for the desirable and climbing on board a popular bandwagon just because ... well just because ... well just because IT FEELS SO GOOD to be all playing the same tune ... even when it is dead dead wrong, seems to litter the wayside with the hard facts of numbers, potential and the naggy reminders of world history.

Just hand waving will not make something true or concrete only because the hand waving feels so good. Or in this case feeling good about existing storyline. Ignoring the hard facts regarding the INDUSTRIAL POTENTIAL of the Sollie core and verge systems will be done at many reader's peril. We will see what Mr. Weber does with this.

Look, I don't want to be disrespectful here, but do you ever plan on actually addressing any of the arguments anyone is making against your interpretation? Because so far in all the discussion on this that I've seen, all you've done is essentially stick your fingers in your ears and repeat the same things over and over again. And honestly I find your continued misrepresentation of what everyone else is saying as 'hand waving', bandwagon thinking, wishful thinking, etc slightly insulting, regardless of how cordially it's done. Most of the people who have tried to debate this with you have done so using logical, reasoned arguments, not hand waving. If you want to assert that those people are wrong, that's your prerogative, but if so it's somewhat incumbent on you to do us the courtesy of addressing what we're actually saying.

If you wish to continue this discussion, I'd appreciate hearing your reasoning for believing the solarian league will continue to exist long enough to leverage that industrial potential. I am not interested in another repetition of the same position while refusing to address the logical objections that are being made against it, and I would appreciate if you would refrain from insulting the intelligence of the people you are talking to with sarcastic remarks about bandwagons and deck chairs.

--snipping--

HB of CJ wrote:In rejecting the obvious for the desirable and climbing on board a popular bandwagon just because ... well just because ... well just because IT FEELS SO GOOD to be all playing the same tune ... even when it is dead dead wrong, seems to litter the wayside with the hard facts of numbers, potential and the naggy reminders of world history.

Well, the naggy history buff in me would like to respectfully disagree, and point out that generally what happens isn't a coalition of midgets attacking a giant, unless the giant attacks first, and the SLN star systems are individually a collection of midgets.

For my example, consider Europe as an example of the SL over the last six centuries, at least since the printing press was invented. Never united, always subject to the meanest nastiest military on the block, and squabbling with each other over things like boundaries, naval capacity, who can marry who, etc. Or the post-Ottoman empire middle east, warlords galore and not really all that much of a well- functioning state within the lot of them. [There's a reason that the British colonial system was set up to be so toxic to big country self-rule, you know...]

Now then, if Manticore et. al turned genocidal, you'd have an argument you cold win. AKA the RMN as the Third Reich, Napoleon, or the IJN, etc. Which by our author's standards of ethical behavior and defense, they most certainly are not.

HB of CJ wrote:Or ... or ... OR!, is it possible Runs For Celery understands the reality of his future history situation and within about 5 years or 2 or 3 more good juicy Honor Harrington novels, the Sollies will get their act together and simply overwhelm and completely destroy the Grand Alliance?

Do not forget the Mesan Malightment. Sneaky devils. Scary tech. Will they share?

Or respectfully ... why is it so many intelligent individuals on this excellent forum fail to understand Sollie system numbers? Or industrial potential? Or political resolve? Mark 24 monkey copies? Future copied numbers? 100,000 new Sollie ships from 10,000 new yards?

Again. How many industrialized Sollie and Verge planets? Now many industrialized Grand Alliance planets?

I think Mr. Weber will fool lots of people here. Honor is in for the ride of her life and it is not going to be a painless or short lesson. Ouch, yikes, oh my Gawd! Where DID all of those new construction new design Sollie starships come from? And armed with ... WTF? Yikes! We will see. Respectfully.

PROVE YOUR STATEMENTS. I notice that you have resorted to insulting the people you are arguing with. To me that indicates that you can't back up what you say.

A Rising Thunder wrote:“In that case, Mr. Permanent Senior Undersecretary, the critical point is simply that any extended war with the Manties is going to be an economic as well as an overtly military conflict. At the moment, their technological advantages are overwhelming, but our economic and industrial power is many times as great as theirs, even allowing for their new alliance with the Havenites. The essential question is whether or not our size and economic capacity are great enough to withstand a concerted attack by this new ‘Grand Alliance’ long enough for us to produce what we need to match its war-fighting capability. And the answer, I’m afraid, is that they may well not be.
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In which case, their alliance is going to have a lot more stability and staying power than anyone in the League would prefer.
He paused politely to allow Kolokoltsov to digest what he’d already said, and the permanent senior undersecretary nodded slowly. He was impressed. Gweon might be young, but he was also articulate, and it sounded as if he had a much clearer and more detailed appreciation of the situation out in the Verge than any of the Navy briefers Rajampet had ever brought along with him.”
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“Appearances, I’m afraid, can be deceiving, however.” Gweon’s expression turned somber. “With the withdrawal of Manticoran freighters and the holes their closure of so many wormholes has blown in our shipping routes, our economy’s been very severely damaged.
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When those opportunities are coupled with the fact that—unlike the citizens of the League—both Manticorans and Havenites are experienced in and thus far better inured to the strains and tensions of interstellar warfare, their alliance is probably in a position to recoup everything it’s lost as a result of the Manties’ closure of our trade lanes within a very few T-years. Certainly in a shorter time than we can recover. In fact, our projections over at Economic Analysis indicate that we’ll reach a tipping point at which the combined economies of Manticore and Haven will effectively match the economic power of the League within no more than ten to fifteen T-years.”
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At the moment, however, I believe those projections are solid. And I’m very much afraid that even they rest on some fairly optimistic assumptions.”
“Optimistic?” Kolokoltsov’s eyes widened.
“Yes, Sir,” Gweon said grimly. “The two most problematic of those assumptions are that, first, we’ll be able to muster the resources on the federal level to support an ongoing, lengthy conflict. And, second, that the League will maintain its political cohesiveness long enough for us to overcome the other side’s technological advantages.
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“I realize that, Sir, and I don’t wish to appear alarmist. Nonetheless, I think we have to acknowledge that there’s enough resentment of current League policies in the Protectorates, the Verge, and even in some Shell systems to make their loyalty to the League . . . uncertain. Quite a few systems in those regions would ask nothing more than to slip out of the League’s control.
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“And, finally, given that same constitutional right to secede, there’s no guarantee some of the Core star systems won’t follow suit.
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“I don’t like my own conclusions, Mr. Permanent Senior Undersecretary,” he said levelly, “but if those conclusions are accurate, we stand a greater chance of losing this war than we do of winning it, and even if we ‘win’ in the end, it’s likely the League will be severely damaged by the time the shooting stops."

underline is my emphasis. RFC went through 5 pages explaining why the league wasn't as strong economically, and why even some SL analysts believed that the SL would last more than a few years, even if the GA adopted a strategy that would tend to strengthen the league.

With the GA adopting a strategy that will weaken the league instead of strengthen it, there is not a hope in hell that the league will hold together long enough to become a threat. and once the league breaks up, it is unlikely that it's successor states will join together to start a new war with manticore.

HB of CJ wrote:In rejecting the obvious for the desirable and climbing on board a popular bandwagon just because ... well just because ... well just because IT FEELS SO GOOD to be all playing the same tune ... even when it is dead dead wrong, seems to litter the wayside with the hard facts of numbers, potential and the naggy reminders of world history.

... Oh gosh. The Mother of all run on sentences!!! Augghhhhh! My bad! I'm sorry. Can I have a cookie please?

Just hand waving will not make something true or concrete only because the hand waving feels so good. Or in this case feeling good about existing storyline. Ignoring the hard facts regarding the INDUSTRIAL POTENTIAL of the Sollie core and verge systems will be done at many reader's peril. We will see what Mr. Weber does with this.

Sounds like to me that lots of folks here want just to rearrange the sliding deck chairs of the Titanic and sing hymnals along with the ship's string quartet when instead it might be a very good idea to instead start shoving and pushing real hard looking for that very first available empty lifeboat .... right now!

OH GAWD!!! Did it again. Opps!!

Nobody is trying to argue that if the League stayed together as a coherent unified entity long enough to get its act together, that it couldn't level the playing field militarily and take advantage of its size. However, the League is not a coherent unified entity - and it never was one in the first place. The League is loosely held together mostly by inertia, and doesn't what we'd call a strong central identity or government. There's no real loyalty to the Solarian League - loyalties are largely to local systems.
The League is more fragmented than the original 13 colonies under the Articles of Confederation. The League Constitution is a lot closer to them than it is to the Constitution of the United States.


For that matter, that's exactly what Honor's trying to prevent with the Harrington Doctrine. Take advantage of the League's lack of cohesion to break chunks of it off to the point that the "League" is no more, to break the League into a lot of much smaller regional successor states or local alliances and bind those successor states into a network of diplomatic agreements. Those regional successor states would be small - most would probably only be a few systems to a couple dozen - but no one, or probably even several, of them would be larger enough to represent a serious threat.


Breaking up the League isn't just something Manticore is planning to do on its own. Breaking up the League is something the MAlign wants to happen and is already helping make happen. Breaking away from the League is something that Barregos and Rozak are making preparations for without the MAlign pushing them towards it - he's actually going to be a form of cover for the OFS sector governors they have been pushing and priming to break away from the League.



Nobody is saying that the League doesn't have a lot of industrial potential.
However, the vast majority of that potential is just that - potential, unrealized potential - and a great deal of that is actively suppressed potential.
It would probably take roughly five years at a minimum for that potential to start being realized. However, that would be for a currently up to date League technology level and standards of realization. It would not be realization on par with Manticoran realization.
In addition, the League and/or its successor states are probably at least a decade of R&D, quite probably a fair amount further, away from MDMs - the MAlign's been working on trying to get MDMs ever since Manticore first used them, and the MAlign's been failing. And that's not even considering the amount of R&D required for the other Manticoran advances and advantages.
Manticore's put over half of century into pushing its R&D as far and as hard as it could - plus over a decade of wartime levels of R&D. It is going to take a while before the League or its successor states manage to catch up with Haven's deployed tech levels.


The Grand Alliance probably has a minimum of five years to break the League into smaller states with near-absolute impunity. Breaking the League into smaller states isn't going to take that long - more likely a year, maybe two at most.
And Manticore has a lot of expansion potential beyond the Manticoran home system as well. There's Manticoran Silesia, and the Talbott Quadrant - for that matter, there's plenty of potential in Trevor's Star and elsewhere in the Old Star Kingdom. Once Manticore expands the realization of that potential, it's going to be even harder to pose a successful military challenge to Manticore. Say each of those systems outside the Old Star Kingdom can support expanding the RMN by a force roughly equivalent in size to somewhere between the Protector's Own and all of the GSN plus the Own, once their potential's been established. Call it half the GSN and Own as an average. Before Apollo and Keyhole 2, Grayson is/was fielding perhaps the third or fourth most powerful fleet in existence, and probably around the fifth or sixth for size. In terms of power, I'm not sure whether the Andermani or Grayson has the edge, and in terms of size, I think Erewhon's probably up there as well.




Me? I think that the League is going to be broken into tiny pieces before Manticore even starts building its next superdreadnought in the home system.
The League is going to go the way of Humpty-Dumpty - and it's already fallen off the wall.

HB of CJ wrote:In rejecting the obvious for the desirable and climbing on board a popular bandwagon just because ... well just because ... well just because IT FEELS SO GOOD to be all playing the same tune ... even when it is dead dead wrong, seems to litter the wayside with the hard facts of numbers, potential and the naggy reminders of world history.

... Oh gosh. The Mother of all run on sentences!!! Augghhhhh! My bad! I'm sorry. Can I have a cookie please?

Just hand waving will not make something true or concrete only because the hand waving feels so good. Or in this case feeling good about existing storyline. Ignoring the hard facts regarding the INDUSTRIAL POTENTIAL of the Sollie core and verge systems will be done at many reader's peril. We will see what Mr. Weber does with this.

Sounds like to me that lots of folks here want just to rearrange the sliding deck chairs of the Titanic and sing hymnals along with the ship's string quartet when instead it might be a very good idea to instead start shoving and pushing real hard looking for that very first available empty lifeboat .... right now!

OH GAWD!!! Did it again. Opps!!

Can you explain why you are not currently a subject of the British Empire, pledging allegiance to the Queen and Union Jack?

Things fall apart when they are corrupt. The League is extremely corrupt and is sucking the Verge dry, just like the British Empire was doing all over the world.

In the midst of this spirited debate don't forget that it is RFC's universe, and if he wanted it to, anything could happen, including any of the scenarios posted here or the whole lot could be eaten by blue space hamsters if he so desired.

That said I don't hold out much for the lurking supermen theory of the Malign biding their time for a comeback. In OTL, attributes have been researched and it appears likely that people are about 50% DNA and 50% upbringing in their adult makeup. Plus there is the compensation theory that when you gain in one area you lose in another. Thus higher than average IQ may come at the cost of megalomania, and an impractical view of the universe.
A number of people here (including me) have posted over time the question of why did they do things the way they did? With lots of money and resources, why not just take themselves well away and create their own civilisation, either to prosper in isolation or to come back in in a few millennia to sort out humanity.

Great subject matter everybody and thank you. Mr. David Weber will do what he will do. So far a superb job. We all look forward to the next couple/three books.

I do not have to prove anything. My job is to make YOU PROVE YOUR POSITION! What I can do is remind everybody that Runs For Celery has set up potential situations.

Seventeen hundred plus, (1700+) POTENTIALLY INDUSTRIALIZED core Sollie systems. Plus an unknown, (so far) number of potentially industrialized Verge systems.

Now add up all the industrialized Grand Alliance systems. Divide the big number by the smaller number. Forget the politics. Forget what they MAY DO. Poor thinking.

Instead consider what the Sollies CAN DO. Consider the level of war footing. Helpful hint: compare the USA, the USSR, Germany and Japan in World War Two. War footings.

Now consider the results of ONE nasty Mesan attack on the Manticore system. Only ONE ATTACK. Forget the methodology. Consider the impact. The results.

Now consider Mesa helping the Sollies. New tech. Almost as good as the Grand Alliances. Again, forget the politics. Concentrate on the military potential only.

The Grand Alliance does not stand a chance. Less than five, (5) years. Runs For Celery probably set it up this way. Gonna be an interesting two or three new books.

It is easy to just roll over and play along with the crowd. It is more difficult to look at stuff others ignore and then bring it to alls attention. That is my job.

Sossss ... if you read this with knee jerk emotion like exasperation, then that is bad. But ... if it gets you to start questioning your assumptions ... that is good.

Thank you. I love this Forum.

HB of CJ wrote:Great subject matter everybody and thank you. Mr. David Weber will do what he will do. So far a superb job. We all look forward to the next couple/three books.

Ill reply because well I am a little bored...

HB of CJ wrote:I do not have to prove anything. My job is to make YOU PROVE YOUR POSITION! What I can do is remind everybody that Runs For Celery has set up potential situations.

No see that is not how debate works, you present your argument and disprove the other side's argument. What you do is state an opinion, ignore the facts presented and don't bother to present facts of you own.

HB of CJ wrote:Seventeen hundred plus, (1700+) POTENTIALLY INDUSTRIALIZED core Sollie systems. Plus an unknown, (so far) number of potentially industrialized Verge systems.

And all of those systems have loyalties to themselves first and foremost and only a fraction of those systems have any loyalty to the League whatsoever and at most it is a distant second to the loyalty they have to themselves.

HB of CJ wrote:Now add up all the industrialized Grand Alliance systems. Divide the big number by the smaller number. Forget the politics. Forget what they MAY DO. Poor thinking.

They are all united which means you have 50,60 or 100 systems united against 1,700 individual systems many of which are unwilling members of the League.

You cannot ignore the politics because it would be like saying I can fly...if we ignore gravity.

HB of CJ wrote:Instead consider what the Sollies CAN DO. Consider the level of war footing. Helpful hint: compare the USA, the USSR, Germany and Japan in World War Two. War footings.

What does that even mean? There is no direct comparison between the League and any nation that fought in world war 2.

HB of CJ wrote:Now consider the results of ONE nasty Mesan attack on the Manticore system. Only ONE ATTACK. Forget the methodology. Consider the impact. The results.

So? They destroyed most of the Manticorean infrastructure but at the same time Haven more than made it up.

HB of CJ wrote:Now consider Mesa helping the Sollies. New tech. Almost as good as the Grand Alliances. Again, forget the politics. Concentrate on the military potential only.

Now consider Mesa helping the GA. New tech. Almost as good as the Grand Alliances. Again, forget the politics. Concentrate on the military potential only.

HB of CJ wrote:The Grand Alliance does not stand a chance. Less than five, (5) years. Runs For Celery probably set it up this way. Gonna be an interesting two or three new books.

Within 5 years, most of the systems that are League members would be independent 1 system nations or small multi-system nations. Many of those new nations would side with the GA.

HB of CJ wrote:It is easy to just roll over and play along with the crowd. It is more difficult to look at stuff others ignore and then bring it to alls attention. That is my job.

All you have told us is to ignore facts and politics just so that your "argument" can have some validity but all it does is show us that there is absolutely no validity to your argument YIKES!!!!!

HB of CJ wrote:Sossss ... if you read this with knee jerk emotion like exasperation, then that is bad. But ... if it gets you to start questioning your assumptions ... that is good.

Thank you. I love this Forum.

Which one is longer length? 100mm or 25cm?

When someone says 25cm is longer than 100mm you take the opposite position and tell us to ignore the units and look at the numbers... how much logic is in that?