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The Misalignment of MA plans?

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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by Duckk   » Tue May 24, 2016 7:23 am

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munroburton wrote:Aye, but BC grade missiles don't do much to SDs. And if it's an Invictus with all its PDLCs, it is almost certainly going to crawl clear of the lane and still be combat effective. And another one will appear every two minutes - if the RMN goes for a sequential transit. If they went for a massed transit of any description, the Monican CO would have given up immediately.

25 Medusas is a total of 3700 point defense clusters - I'd love to see "those crap Pilums" try to penetrate that. :P


BC missiles will do plenty since they can target the unprotected tops and bottoms of a transiting ship.
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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by cthia   » Tue May 24, 2016 7:52 am

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cthia wrote:
MIT - Malign Institute of Technology

Is there a MAlign Institute of Technology where there are baby MITs (MAligns In Training)? :D


So much for dry opening humor. Let me be about it. I don't understand the MAs choice of plans in regards to the League. There is so much corruption and rigor mortis in the League that I didn't see them as a potential problem to the MA. Now Beowulf is. And Beowulf, if the MA did its homework, is more in line with Manticoran thought than League's.

Why didn't the MA just pull their Houdini quietly and proceed to develop and create ships and genetic modifications? What was the need to launch Oyster Bay now? Why couldn't they waited until all of their ships were complete and all systems go? So what, if it may have taken five decades longer before their technology was complete and armada built. What would have been different in the galaxy? Other than a new King crowned?

Then the MA would have had a clearer target. They could have elected to kick off the same plan after their ships were built, then implementing their plan to force the League and Manties to fight. And if they would have abstained from playing any of their cards, even the nanites, all of that tech could have been unleashed all at once on the unsuspecting galaxy before time, and evidentiary support - gave thought that something was amiss . If all that the MA cared about was freedom to create, I'm sure they could have gotten permission to do so from the League, under the table. Bribes are understood by a corrupt League. "Can be bought and bribed" is on the face of League currency. If not, they could have manipulated the idiots to conform.

Sooner or later the League and Manticore would have ended up fighting anyways, naturally. Even though the MA's plan was centuries old, it still seems rather rushed to me. Oyster Bay seems to have jumped the gun.

It seems that the MA should have waited for everything, their ships and tech and abominable snow of men to be complete. What was the end rush of a centuries old plan?

If they were so willing to wait that long in the first place, and with such technological prowess, they could have constructed a huge armada and unleashed it on the galaxy, along with assassinations and the awakening of even deeper sleepers all over the galaxy.
JohnRoth wrote:Their plan was working perfectly. They never intended to conquer the galaxy, they intended to change the political terrain so that they could slowly and stealthily implement their plans for a race of genetic supermen - "One Race to Rule Them All."

Yet if they didn't intend to conquer the galaxy, why didn't they remain militarily peaceful? Because once you let weapons of mass destruction out of the bag, your political rhetoric becomes that of a conqueror or a dictator or both.

They could have posed their political will on the galaxy from a Trojan horse of a pacifistic stance - backed up by the responsibly pragmatic diplomatic rhetoric of a navy built only for "defense." If Albrecht had the mindset of a Mahatma Gandhi from the outset of his plans, he'd be well on track now with a real possibility of success. Cults draw people in by an outward appearance of love and kindness. Then when the galaxy was unawares and their navy prepared, then pull the railway switch to change military tracks and unleash their expansionistic affinity to conquer political minds.

The gist of it is that even though Albrecht had the same mindset as Hitler, he doesn't seem to have actually believed in his own rhetoric regarding the superiority of his species at the fundamental level - as did Hitler. At least Hitler believed in his master race, a belief that didn't get shot down until Jesse Owens at the '36 Olympics in Berlin. Yet he did believe! If Detweiler's creations are so superior, let it naturally speak for itself - no need to outwardly display any aberrant mental deficiencies of a megalomaniac.


JohnRoth wrote:They didn't plan on Manticore. They tried a couple of things like subverting Haven and then trying to have Haven conquer Manticore, but neither worked. With Manticore and a resurgent Haven on the board, they couldn't be sure their Renaissance Faction would actually jell after the League fell apart, so they started making plans for a direct military assault on Manticore and Haven.

Don't you mean an indirect military assault? But yea.

Lack of confidence in their plan for the Renaissance Factor may be notable in their overall problems. Basing the plan on an uncertainty seems uncharacteristic of Detweiler. Right at the end, especially with Oyster Bay, it seemed like Detweiler lost his head, then his confidence.

I definitely see unleashing the nanites and ordering assassinations as a huge strategic blunder. And totally unnecessary. All of the nanite assassinations bore no real fruit in the end that wasn't nullified. The MA should have unleashed everything on the galaxy at once. A technological - supported by an intellectual blitzkrieg.

JohnRoth wrote:Then when Manticore discovered the Lynx terminus of the Manticore Wormhole Junction, things hit the fan. They tried to force Manticore out of the Talbot Sector and failed, then they tried to take Manticore off the boards with a hurried-up version of Oyster Bay. That failed because of the Dynamic Duo and an internal traitor that blew the cover off the MAlign.

Seems to me if they had just waited and let it all play itself out wouldn't have posed a problem.

JohnRoth wrote:In the mess, the biggest thing they did wrong was wait too long to start Operation Houdini. In mitigation, Operation Houdini was going to leave Mesa with an incompetent government.

That's another thing that bothers me. If the MA was going to stab Mesa in the back and leave them holding the bag of dirty money anyways, why not implicate them with something more beneficial to their cause than mere incompetence. If that operation just had to be, the MA could have set up Oyster Bay to look like Mesa did it - then left "fake" SLN-like contingency plans to destroy the ships after Oyster Bay deeply embedded within Mesa's databanks to be skillfully massaged out by "superior" GA competence. If they were going to point a finger at Mesa, then point the whole damn hand.

JohnRoth wrote:Albrecht is simply not very good at reacting to unplanned circumstances. Nor is he very good at listening to anyone outside of his hermetically sealed echo chamber.

Why does this not surprise me. Two of the same deficiencies that was characteristic of Hitler. Albrecht is insane, just like Hitler. And you simply cannot talk to the insane.

It is simply *Intellectual Suicide.

The same conundrum faced by Hitler's many advisors. Committing oneself to a discussion with someone who is insane is itself insane, except that in Hitler's and Detweiler's unsociable circles, it could really be fatal - suicide.

* viewtopic.php?f=13&t=7904

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by Joat42   » Tue May 24, 2016 8:35 am

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cthia wrote:
JohnRoth wrote:Albrecht is simply not very good at reacting to unplanned circumstances. Nor is he very good at listening to anyone outside of his hermetically sealed echo chamber.

Why does this not surprise me. Two of the same deficiencies that was characteristic of Hitler. Albrecht is insane, just like Hitler. And you simply cannot talk to the insane.

It is simply *Intellectual Suicide.

The same conundrum faced by Hitler's many advisors. Committing oneself to a discussion with someone who is insane is itself insane, except that in Hitler's and Detweiler's unsociable circles, it could also be fatal.

* viewtopic.php?f=13&t=7904

Hitler wasn't insane, he was just your typical delusional megalomaniac who blamed everyone else for his own mistakes. Comparing Detweiler to Hitler isn't really apt since Detweiler recognizes when he make mistakes. Much like Hitler, Detweiler and co. are true believers which makes them apply methods which are revolting to normal people.

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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by cthia   » Tue May 24, 2016 9:00 am

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cthia wrote:
JohnRoth wrote:Albrecht is simply not very good at reacting to unplanned circumstances. Nor is he very good at listening to anyone outside of his hermetically sealed echo chamber.

Why does this not surprise me. Two of the same deficiencies that was characteristic of Hitler. Albrecht is insane, just like Hitler. And you simply cannot talk to the insane.

It is simply *Intellectual Suicide.

The same conundrum faced by Hitler's many advisors. Committing oneself to a discussion with someone who is insane is itself insane, except that in Hitler's and Detweiler's unsociable circles, it could also be fatal.

* viewtopic.php?f=13&t=7904
Joat42 wrote:Hitler wasn't insane, he was just your typical delusional megalomaniac who blamed everyone else for his own mistakes. Comparing Detweiler to Hitler isn't really apt since Detweiler recognizes when he make mistakes. Much like Hitler, Detweiler and co. are true believers which makes them apply methods which are revolting to normal people.

You said it yourself, delusional megalamaniac. Both are inherent qualities of the insane. Delusion is a classification of a mental health disorder.

Just like what many consider of Nietzsche's, Hitler's philosophy was insane. I recommend you read...
https://www.amazon.com/Historys-Most-In ... entries*=0

At any rate, that ship has long since sailed and Hitler's sanity had long since bailed.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by kzt   » Tue May 24, 2016 9:32 am

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The fact that you have a force whose mission is to reinforce and of the terminus does not mean they will be transiting in 30 seconds. They certainly are not sitting in the approach lane for Lynx, as they were assigned to support all the various terminus. Plus there is a huge amount of ship traffic around the WHJ and the RMN isn't going to park their ships where an errant freighter captain can run one over. So they will need to get under way, maneuver into the departure lane and transit. At best you are talking 10 minutes. Depending on exactly what is going on it could be significantly longer.

And this assumes they actually get a warning. If the incoming traffic just stops coming through the WH, how long do you think it will take before someone decides that this is enemy action and not a sign that some freighter captain screwed up the exit lane?
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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by SharkHunter   » Tue May 24, 2016 6:42 pm

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Actually, the name of the problem starts with (King) Roger Winton, Elizabeth's father, who correctly forecasted that the only way to not lose the SKM was to have the best tech in space, and lots of it. Then it gets worse, primarily because of Honor's innovative tactics against varied opponents, which seem to take Sonja's toys and use them much better than planned. [FTL comm [CA-286 (HMS-Fearless-II vs the Crippler], mass towed pods tied to FTL fire control] (Short Victorious War), Podnaughts (Honor Among Enemies), LACs (also Honor Among Enemies). Then we put Honor on the Weapons Development Board and it all goes kinda nuts in terms of progress. White Haven gets on board, Haven has to match tech with tactics and their own improvements (due to Shannon Foraker, who Honor let go at the end of HonorAmong enemies).

But the MAlign's bigger predicton problem is simply the vastness of space and communication times. It's like playing chess where you only get enough information to make your next move after several months, and in the mean time MAlign antagonistic s--- happens. Things like Torch which comes from two more unpredicted people, primarily Cachat and Ruth Winton, plus... Rozak who realizes that a new tiger is ready to play. All completely unpredictable.
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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by darrell   » Tue May 24, 2016 9:29 pm

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Theemile wrote:
darrell wrote:Had monica had time to get all 14 BC's working it still wouldn't have been sucsessful for monica to get tech samples.

Lets say you are right and the monican navy manages to translate into normal space within missile range.

One ship translates through the wormhole with case zulu before the missiles can arrive this dosen't even have to be a member of the picket force, just the next ship in the que with a message from the picket commander.

The picket force is blown away.

The first SDP from home fleet translates through, and because the monican navy is not within energy weapons rang, the SDP has time to switch to web before missiles can arrive.

3 minutes for monican missiles to arrive 46Kg's vs 90 seconds for manticoran missiles to arrive at 92Kg's mean that.

The SDP blows the monican force to itty bitty bits with one apollo salvo. that is a dozen attack birds for each BC.

As the monican BC's are destroyed before the first wave of their missiles arrive, they will be unguided, when they do arrive, and IMO will be unlikely to do more than superficial damage to the SDP.


You are forgetting that the Emerging SD is in an emergence lane for as much as 5 minutes (we don't actually know the length for the lynx terminus, but it is a measurable amount of time). During this time it can not raise it's wedge, use it's sidewalls, or fire missiles - it can only fire energy weapons and defenses. So the Monicans can fire missiles on it un-opposed and the SD must just take whatever fire (with only it's PDLCs to defend it). However, if a SD emerges from the lane and can raise it's wedge, the gig is up.


You appear to be confusing things. First, on a wormhole juction all routs have the same tonnage limits and the same ammount of time that the rout is destabalized and can't be used. underline in my emphasis Per EoH:


Ships will move to the terminus at maximum military power, and transit windows are to be cut to the minimum possible, not the minimum allowed. Use the courier boat to inform Manticore ACS of that intention, as well."
... clipped ...
Unfortunately, any wormhole transit destabilized the termini involved for a minimum of ten seconds, and vessels which massed more than about two and a half million tons destabilized it for a total interval proportional to the square of the transiting mass
... clipped ...
His screening units, up to and including his battlecruisers, would each produce a ten-second blockage of the route for whoever came next in line, but his dreadnoughts would close the route for almost seventy seconds and each superdreadnought would shut it down for a hundred and thirteen.
... clipped ...
HMS Glorioso had been just a fraction of a second too slow reconfiguring from sails to wedge, and HMS Vixen had run right up her backside.


10 seconds for the argamenmon, 11 for the nike, 90 for a DN, 2 minutes for a SD.

And where do you get that it takes 5 minutes to bring a wedge up after transiting a wormhole, it Sure dosen't sound like it takes 5 minutes to change from sail to wedge to me, since the destroyers are going through on 10 second intervals and SD's are going through at intervals of less than 2 minutes.

ART shows it even more explicitly that it takes just a few seconds to transition from sails to a wedge after transiting a wormhole:
“Engineering, reconfigure to impeller.”
“Aye, aye, Sir. Reconfiguring to impeller now.”
Otter folded her sails back into her impeller wedge and moved forward more rapidly, ac-celerating steadily out of the Stine Terminus, five and a half light-hours from the G5 primary of the Stine System.
“Five hundred gravities, Senior Chief,” Talmadge said.
“Five hundred gravities, aye, aye, Sir,” Powell acknowledged crisply, and Talmadge’s lips twitched as he waited for Stine Astro Control to react to his ship’s abrupt appearance.
✧✧✧
“Sir, they’ve noticed us,” Lieutenant Jordan Rivera announced, and Commodore Magellan raised an eyebrow at his staff communications officer.
“Put it on the main display, Jordan.”
“Yes, Sir.”
An officer in the uniform of Stine Astro Control with a captain’s insignia appeared on the main com display. He had a dark complexion, a shaved head, a thick mustache, and an irate expression.
“Unknown ship!” he snarled. “Reduce acceleration immediately!”
“My, he does seem a bit unhappy,” Magellan murmured.
“Well, Sir,” Commander Wilson observed, “we are exceeding the terminus acceleration limit by about four hundred and eighty gravities. I imagine that could account for a bit of un-happiness.”
“I suppose you’re right,” the commodore conceded.
“God damn it, reduce your accel right now!” the shaven-headed captain shouted. “What the fuck d’you think you’re doing?!”
“I think he’s going to get even more unhappy just about . . . now,” Lieutenant Commander Sarah Tanner, Magellan’s ops officer, remarked dryly as Malcolm Taylor, his squadron’s second ship, burst out of the terminus behind Otter.
Malcolm Taylor peeled off on a sharply divergent vector, accelerating just as hard as Otter, and Magellan nodded in satisfaction. Although even a relatively small terminus was an enormous volume of space, trying something like this into or out of the Manticoran Junction would have been extraordinarily dangerous. Despite the separation between inbound and outbound lanes, there was so much traffic through the Junction that the probability of a wedge-on-wedge collision would have been only too real. In Stine’s case, however, there was only a single inbound and a single outbound lane, and traffic was sparse, to say the least. He saw a single freighter’s icon on the tactical display, swinging wildly away from the terminus, even though Otter was a good forty thousand kilometers clear of her. But that was fine with him.
“Deploy the Ghost Rider platforms, Sarah,” he said. “Let’s get some eyes out there.”
“Yes, Sir. Deploying now.”
The icons of half a dozen Ghost Rider recon platforms arced away from Otter’s larger, stronger light code on the tactical plot, and he saw HMS Tiger Cub, the squadron’s third cruiser, emerging from the terminus behind Malcolm Taylor.
“Who the hell are you people?!” the astro-control captain on the com demanded furiously.
“Better go ahead and put me through to him, Jordan,” Magellan said.
“Yes, Sir. Live mike in three . . . two . . . one. Now.”
Magellan saw the dark-faced captain’s expression change abruptly as his own image appeared on the other man’s display. For a moment, the Solarian looked blank, but then his eyes first widened and then, almost as quickly, narrowed again as he recognized Magellan’s black-and-gold uniform.
“Commodore Sean Magellan, Royal Manticoran Navy,” Magellan said calmly.
“What the hell do you think you’re doing?!” the captain challenged. “This is Solarian space!”
“Really?” Magellan replied. “Imagine that.”
The astro-control officer’s complexion turned darker than ever and his jaw muscles quivered as he glared incredulously at the commodore. He opened his mouth, but nothing came out of it, as if the sheer power of his fury had paralyzed his vocal cords, and Magellan gave him a thin, cold smile.
“Actually, Captain, I’m quite aware of where I am. And I’m quite aware that the Solarian League claims sovereignty over this terminus. Unfortunately, things like that are subject to change.”
“What the hell do you mean by that?!” the captain managed to get out after another three or four seconds of rage-inspired muteness.
“I mean that jurisdiction over this terminus has just changed hands from the Solarian League to the Star Empire of Manticore,” Magellan told him flatly.
“You’re out of your fucking mind!”
“No,” Magellan responded as the fourth and fifth ships of his squadron emerged from the terminus and shifted their vectors outward to englobe it. “I’m afraid not, Captain.”
“You are if you think you can get away with this kind of crap!”
“Excuse me for asking this, Captain, but why do you think I can’t ‘get away with this kind of crap’?”
“Because—” the captain began furiously, then stopped abruptly.
“That’s what I thought,” Magellan said much more gently. And glanced back at the tactical display as HMS Wolf, the last of his cruisers, emerged from the terminus . . . closely followed by HMS Selkie, his remaining CLAC. He didn’t know what the Solarian captain thought Selkie was, but she sure looked like a ship-of-the-wall.
“Allow me to explain this to you, Captain—?”


7 RMN cruisers transited a wormhole at intervals of just a few seconds (less than 15) and all had their wedged up accelerating at 500G's before the next one emerged. We are looking at less than 15 seconds to convert from sail to wedge, IMO probably about 5 seconds, most of that to get out of the transit zone itself.
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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by kzt   » Tue May 24, 2016 11:52 pm

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Darrell, weren't you part of the thread where David posted this?

David Weber wrote: Page 13 of finding the torch wormhole's destination

"A junction is usually considerably more than 5,000 km across (I think 300,000 qualifies as “considerably more than” 5,000. [G]). Each individual transit lane within a junction/terminus is much smaller than the total volume of the junction, however, and the final size of the transit lane depends on a whole bunch of factors we won’t go into right now. As a general rule of thumb, the “bigger” the junction (i.e., the greater the number of termini, the higher the max tonnage limit, etc.) the wider the junction as a whole is going to be, but the narrower the individual lanes are going to be and the futher into n-space the grav wave of each terminus is going to extend.

Because of the sheer forces involved in transiting a terminus of any type, the maneuver must be executed at a very low velocity and with minmal helm and acceleration changes. Transit speeds are higher for lighter ships (i.e., those with smaller hyper generators producing areas of effect with smaller radii).

If you look at the transits which have been described in the Honorverse, you will find that they have to be made on a very tightly and precisely controlled vector, which is why the transits made in ART without “local pilots” are possible only because the RMN (courtesy in no small part of the Manticoran merchant marine) has very, very good charts on the termini in question. Moreover, a terminus gravity wave is (1) much weaker than a “normal” h-space gravity wave (indeed, little more powerful than an impeller wedge) and (2) not of uniform power throughout its entire area of effect. The first point means that the wave’s “inertial sump” is no deeper than for an impeller wedge and the second point means that there are sharp gradients — effectively, fluctuations — throughout it’s “length,” and those two points in connection mean that the maximum possible acceleration is only about 50% of a ship’s max acceleration under impeller drive (i.e., about 210 gravities for most people’s SDs and about 286 gravities for a current generation Alliance SD). That, however, is the maximum safe acceleration for a typical single terminus “junction,” and the safe acceleration rate drops rather steeply as the number of termini go up, just as the maximum safe transit velocity is lower for a multi-terminus junction’s termini.

Without getting into all the gory details, the MWHJ is about 300,000 km across, and the Mantcore Astro Control Service currently has to handle six incoming and outgoing transit lanes. The good news is that the transit lanes are all separate from one another and that Junction ACS doesn’t have to worry about the vectors of ships leaving Manticore once they make transit. That is, they only have to “catch” the inbound ships and keep the space along their entry route clear. Each actual transit lane is around 9,000 km “across,” has a maximum safe transit “speed limit” of about 20 KPS, a maximum safe acceleration rate of about 60 gravities (for an SD), and extends about 26,000 km into the Junction. And any ship making transit must maintain profile within that transit lane until it clears its far end (i.e., an average of 26,000 km from the arrival threshhold). That means an SD trainsiting the Junction will arrive at a speed of 20 KPS and require 278 seconds (just over 4.5 minutes) to clear the lane, at which point it will be traveling at 175 KPS. Until it clears the lane, it cannot reconfigure to impeller wedge, but there is no limit (aside from simple physical volume constraints and the “reset” time) as to how many ships can be “in the lane” simultaneously. Since JACS imposes a minimum 20 second window for normal transits, there could be no more than 14 or so “in the lane” at any given moment, but we’re talking about SDs here, each of which destabilized the terminus for 113 seconds, which means there can be only two of them in the lane at any given moment.

This means each SD will be forced to leave its wedge and sidewalls down for the better part of 5 minutes, during which it must maintain a steady course and cannot fire impeller drive missiles, and is confined within a 9,000 km-wide “tube.” A despatch boat’s maximum safe transit speed is almost 50 KPS, however, and its max safe acceleration is around 200 gravities, so it could clear the lane in only 2 minutes and 19 seconds. Other ships would lie on a curve between the two extremes, depending upon their tonnages. And for single termini, where the wave is both shorter and less intense, the numbers would be much lower (hence the minimum 20 second number I believe I mentioned earlier, although that is an absolute minimum — for a despatch boat — under ideal conditions on a very “weak” terminus).

This, by the way, is a very siginificant point in the RMN’s decision to use Saganami-Cs and Rolands as its point units in seizing termini under Lacoön Two; they can get in a heck of a lot faster than even a Manty SD, they can put more of them through in the same time interval, and they have the range and the punch to take out even much heavier units once they’re into n-space on the other side. If they were going up against fortified termini which they are not in Lacoön, those CAs would be dead meat before they ever cleared the lanes . . . and anyone trying to take the termini back from them faces exactly the same constraints. This is a fundamental, underlying considertation which led the RMN to formulate Lacoön in the first place as a rapid, inexpensive way to seize control of the wormhole networks while making it extremely costly for anyone to take them back again. It is symptomatic of the changes in the conceptualization of interstellar warfighting doctrine that Manticore had figured this out while the SLN was still thinking in terms of ponderous, unstoppable advances through hyper-space. The notion of attacking through the MWHJ to support Fillareta was another example of how far behind the curve the SLN was in adjusting to the new realities; it was thinking of the MWHJ in the same way that it thought about its own termini’s defenses (or lack thereof) despite the fact that ONI knew (and had warned the mission planners) that the MWHJ was a whole different kind of animal.

The key point here for defensbility with mines and/or missile pods, however, is that the defender knows what the transit lanes are and can pretty much encase them in a cylinder of mines (or missile pods) as dense as it wants to make them and as long as the lane. Before the laser head, “boom or burn” warheads already had a standoff range of well over 9,000 km; first generation laserheads had standoff ranges of 30,000 km against active sidewalls and would make mincemeat out of bare alloy at 9,000 km (4,500, actually, since the entire lane is only 9,000 km across). The missile would never have to enter the gravity wave “tube” to attack, which means missile pods would work just fine in terminus defense, thank you.

And as far as “Mines would be the best solution against a mass tranist, and I have a solution that aparently DW hasn't thought of: slightly expand the sensors and programming on the mines. If the mines detect a mass transit, and the IFF does not respond correctly, blow the mass transit away” is concerned, that’s exactly what mines do . . . in wartime. Forts are to cover the termini in peacetime where a little computer glitch or hardward malfunction could have fairly significant consequences. This is what I’ve been describing from the very first book, so I’m a little at a loss to understand why “apparently DW hasn’t thought” of it.

As for assaults through properly defended termini under wartime conditions are concerned, however, the old cliché about “fshooting fish in a barrel” (in this case, almost literally) comes rather forcibly to mind.
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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by Louis R   » Wed May 25, 2016 12:13 am

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The problem is that you have no idea what the Plan actually entails, nor how the developments in the Haven Sector were affecting it. Which is fine, neither do I [there's a Manpower office just up the road, but they insist that they've never heard of the Alignment].

We do, however, have indications that it involves widespread chaos and the deaths of billions. Even in the Honorverse, 'billions' isn't chump change. It's a measurable fraction of the total human population, assuming that Aldona's rumination wasn't simplifying the numbers. I'm starting to suspect that object of the exercise is to reprise the Spring and Autumn Annals, with the Mandarins filling in for the Zhou. Given that there are planets to be sacked, not mere cities, the body count is more likely expected to be a _sizable_ percentage of the human race. Enough that people will gladly entrust their fates and their genes to the supermen whose enlightened guidance has created the islands of peace and security to be found within the Renaissance Factor.

Scenarios like that don't work if there's an 800lb gorilla on the block, or even a 350lb gorilla with pecs. They tend to take a dim view of chaos mushing up the bananas, and they've even been known to take the deaths of billions rather poorly. Let one settle things down, and you're back to square one, except that you're dealing with a society lacking the built-in fracture lines of the SL or the PRH. And the conditions for creating a collection of Warring States don't pop up every second month, with an extra in leap years, even if you're doing your damnedest to create them. Since the Alignment is a collection of sociopaths with OCD, not the Second Foundation, they can't even really predict the course or timing of events, let alone control them completely, and have to seize the occasions that offer themselves.


cthia wrote:
Kytheros wrote:The MAlign pulled the trigger on Oyster Bay way earlier than planned because Manticore had just used Apollo - which they believed broke the combat paradigm and balance of power about as much as Operation Buttercup did.

Apollo meant that Haven was completely and utterly screwed, despite having MDMs and Podnoughts of their own, which meant the war with Haven was basically over - and that meant that Manticore would be free to focus on the League - and the League would be even more screwed.
Specifically, the League might be sufficiently screwed that the Mandarins and the like wouldn't go the way the MAlign wanted, but even if they did, there wouldn't be any way for Manticore to get crushed in the fighting.

I still don't see how that would have been a problem in the long run. It simply would have painted a bullseye on a different target, same as what has happened now.

Continue to watch from the sidelines and allow Manticore to defeat Haven, then focus on Manticore. The thing that is nagging me, is that they allowed their timeline to be so rushed, that even if it was successful in destroying the League and even busting Manticore and Haven back to the Stone Age, there would have been enough time elapsed by the time they emerged out of their closets that there would have been a rebuilt RMN and/or RHN anyways.

If they would have gone and simply allowed nature to take its course, then there would only have been two Super Powers - the SLN and the mini-alliance of Manticore&Grayson. Then set those two against each other if that same type of plan still appealed to them. Two is one less variable therefore inherently less complicated than three. (counting RMN&Grayson as one - joined at Honor's hip)

It sure would be nice if we knew just how prematurely Oyster Bay was hatched. Textev?
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Re: The Misalignment of MA plans?
Post by JohnRoth   » Wed May 25, 2016 1:30 am

JohnRoth
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Kytheros wrote:The MAlign pulled the trigger on Oyster Bay way earlier than planned because Manticore had just used Apollo - which they believed broke the combat paradigm and balance of power about as much as Operation Buttercup did.

Apollo meant that Haven was completely and utterly screwed, despite having MDMs and Podnoughts of their own, which meant the war with Haven was basically over - and that meant that Manticore would be free to focus on the League - and the League would be even more screwed.

Specifically, the League might be sufficiently screwed that the Mandarins and the like wouldn't go the way the MAlign wanted, but even if they did, there wouldn't be any way for Manticore to get crushed in the fighting.


cthia wrote:I still don't see how that would have been a problem in the long run. It simply would have painted a bullseye on a different target, same as what has happened now.

Continue to watch from the sidelines and allow Manticore to defeat Haven, then focus on Manticore. The thing that is nagging me, is that they allowed their timeline to be so rushed, that even if it was successful in destroying the League and even busting Manticore and Haven back to the Stone Age, there would have been enough time elapsed by the time they emerged out of their closets that there would have been a rebuilt RMN and/or RHN anyways.

If they would have gone and simply allowed nature to take its course, then there would only have been two Super Powers - the SLN and the mini-alliance of Manticore&Grayson. Then set those two against each other if that same type of plan still appealed to them. Two is one less variable therefore inherently less complicated than three. (counting RMN&Grayson as one - joined at Honor's hip)

It sure would be nice if we knew just how prematurely Oyster Bay was hatched. Textev?


To answer Cythia's question about how much Oyster Bay was rushed: about one and a half to two years. We saw the Detweiller SDs being built in the scene where the Sharks returned to Darius. I may be being a bit optimistic about the Darius shipyards build times.

Louis R wrote:The problem is that you have no idea what the Plan actually entails, nor how the developments in the Haven Sector were affecting it. Which is fine, neither do I [there's a Manpower office just up the road, but they insist that they've never heard of the Alignment].

We do, however, have indications that it involves widespread chaos and the deaths of billions. Even in the Honorverse, 'billions' isn't chump change. It's a measurable fraction of the total human population, assuming that Aldona's rumination wasn't simplifying the numbers. I'm starting to suspect that object of the exercise is to reprise the Spring and Autumn Annals, with the Mandarins filling in for the Zhou. Given that there are planets to be sacked, not mere cities, the body count is more likely expected to be a _sizable_ percentage of the human race. Enough that people will gladly entrust their fates and their genes to the supermen whose enlightened guidance has created the islands of peace and security to be found within the Renaissance Factor.

Scenarios like that don't work if there's an 800lb gorilla on the block, or even a 350lb gorilla with pecs. They tend to take a dim view of chaos mushing up the bananas, and they've even been known to take the deaths of billions rather poorly. Let one settle things down, and you're back to square one, except that you're dealing with a society lacking the built-in fracture lines of the SL or the PRH. And the conditions for creating a collection of Warring States don't pop up every second month, with an extra in leap years, even if you're doing your damnedest to create them. Since the Alignment is a collection of sociopaths with OCD, not the Second Foundation, they can't even really predict the course or timing of events, let alone control them completely, and have to seize the occasions that offer themselves.


I think that's a pretty good summary, although there are a couple of nits. The biggest one is that the Renaissance Factor isn't advertising that they're run by genetic supermen, so there's no resistance on that end. As far as anyone else is concerned, they're simply a successful successor state that's a safe haven from the chaos. The "uplift" program is to be introduced slowly and over a long time.

The other nit is whether Manticore and Haven between themselves could squash the chaos after the SL breaks up. I seriously doubt it. They're sitting on the periphery of the settled part of the spiral arm, and they're not really in position, let alone interested, in becoming the next Galactic Empire.
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