What happens if the GA demands the SL breakup?

If Manticore sails into the Sol system and threatens to bombard Earth unless the Solarian League dissolves as a political entity, it is signing its own death warrant. It would just be a matter of time. That would be one of the few things that could guarantee the Solarian League doesn't break up, which is otherwise an inevitability, and a unified Solarian League eventually crushes Manticore.

Crown Loyalist wrote:If Manticore sails into the Sol system and threatens to bombard Earth unless the Solarian League dissolves as a political entity, it is signing its own death warrant. It would just be a matter of time. That would be one of the few things that could guarantee the Solarian League doesn't break up, which is otherwise an inevitability, and a unified Solarian League eventually crushes Manticore.

Why, though? We know an awful lot of systems don't really want to be part of the league and the league would have been exposed as powerless to protect it's members.

Are you saying the SLN would not accept the order from it's leaders to stand down?

Loren Pechtel wrote:We know that once a force controls the orbitals of a planet that planet must surrender (or face bombardment that would otherwise be a violation of the Eridani Edict.)

What happens of the GA takes Earth which forces the Solarian League to surrender and then the GA demands the dismantling of the Solarian League and dispersing the navy to the member worlds corresponding to their population?

What would that even mean? They could order the dismantling of the SLN's ships, backed by the threat "or else we'll do it for you", but the League itself -- how? Demand that the Assembly passes a bill dissolving the League? How could it be enforced? How would the GA prevent hundreds of systems from covertly forming an alliance to destroy the Manties?

kzt wrote:One the definitions of diplomacy is "the art of saying 'nice doggie' while slowly reaching for a rock". And when you are outnumbered a thousand to one, convincing them that they need to fight you will end badly.

Except that in this case it is saying "Nice doggie" while racking the action of your shotgun:)

Loren Pechtel wrote:

Crown Loyalist wrote:If Manticore sails into the Sol system and threatens to bombard Earth unless the Solarian League dissolves as a political entity, it is signing its own death warrant. It would just be a matter of time. That would be one of the few things that could guarantee the Solarian League doesn't break up, which is otherwise an inevitability, and a unified Solarian League eventually crushes Manticore.

Why, though? We know an awful lot of systems don't really want to be part of the league and the league would have been exposed as powerless to protect it's members.

Are you saying the SLN would not accept the order from it's leaders to stand down?

Forcibly dissolving the League and then having to maintain total war footing for the next 500 years because you just pissed off a few hundred to a thousand very industrialized systems is a bad thing.

A lot of people in 1941 USSR didn't like the government and would have gladly fought against it for their nation's independence but the Nazi's actions essentially forced those people to back the Soviet government when they would have willingly fought against it.

The thing that's missing here is that the League is about to come apart on its own, with a little help from the MAlign. The people out in Maya Sector are pretty sure of it, and the GA is aware of their activity.

The fact is, the League is basically an overgrown customs union. Except for the ISLN and Frontier Fleet, the League poses no threat to anyone. And all those two organizations are really good for is target practice.

Doing anything that would force people in the League to begin to live up to the League's mythology is a Very Bad Idea (TM).

Bill Woods wrote:

Loren Pechtel wrote:We know that once a force controls the orbitals of a planet that planet must surrender (or face bombardment that would otherwise be a violation of the Eridani Edict.)

What happens of the GA takes Earth which forces the Solarian League to surrender and then the GA demands the dismantling of the Solarian League and dispersing the navy to the member worlds corresponding to their population?

What would that even mean? They could order the dismantling of the SLN's ships, backed by the threat "or else we'll do it for you", but the League itself -- how? Demand that the Assembly passes a bill dissolving the League? How could it be enforced? How would the GA prevent hundreds of systems from covertly forming an alliance to destroy the Manties?

But why would they want to? It's the Mandarins on Earth that are determined to fight in order to avoid the collapse of their system. With them no longer issuing the orders I think the other systems would be much more amendable to reason--and they have no reason to pursue the war.

I believe Honor Harrington said something on this issue back in SftS to Queen Elizabeth - She stated that with the size of the League and Manticore's small population, occupation of those worlds would be downright impossible. Therefore Manticore's objective would be to get the League to break into multiple successor states, with differing national interests, which Manticore could exploit and play against one another. Attacking Earth directly could just as likely trigger the exact opposite response to this, i.e. bring many core systems with their huge SDFs and populations together in the name of mutual defense and survival.

While the Yawata Strike crippled Manticore's ship building and ammunition building capabilities, it now has other allies that can make up for that absence until Manticore manages to rebuild. So the original strategy remains - Manticore is going after the League's carrying trade, which is what binds the League systems together economically and since the League has no way to protect its ships militarily, nor protect the wormhole junctions and bridges that seriously cut down on travel time and costs, the people that will be hurting first are the transstellar corporations and entities who in turn have a lot of influence with the Mandarins (as demonstrated when the ineffectual League President called one of them in for a "chat").

To accelerate this process, I think that Manticore and Haven need to start sending military expeditions into the larger League systems, with large shipyards and populations. While in some cases, Battle Fleet officers will opt to fight rather than surrender the system, any repeat of the tactics from Split (i.e. take out a third of the ships in one fell broadside) or from New Tuscany (just take out the flag ship - if you know which one it is) would convince their subordinates to see reason. Once those crappy ships are secure, Manticore offers several of them or some of the local civilian spacers the chance to pilot those ships of the wall to planets in the periphery that are either under the control of Manticore or one of the allies it will get in the coming book. That way you provide those new Manticoran citizens or allies the chance to acquaint themselves with ships of the wall and train for commerce protection against the coming onslaught of Solarian commerce raiding.

Loren Pechtel wrote:
But why would they want to? It's the Mandarins on Earth that are determined to fight in order to avoid the collapse of their system. With them no longer issuing the orders I think the other systems would be much more amendable to reason--and they have no reason to pursue the war.

Unless the actions in question bring credibility to the claim that Manticore and Haven have Imperialistic ambitions. Doing something that puts credibility to that claim in the eyes of the individual league members might ultimately force them together. They might not like the League a whole lot but in the face of uncertainty they may decide the League is preferable to being conquered by Manticore and Haven.

Loren Pechtel wrote:But why would they want to? It's the Mandarins on Earth that are determined to fight in order to avoid the collapse of their system. With them no longer issuing the orders I think the other systems would be much more amendable to reason--and they have no reason to pursue the war.

You could replace "Mandarins on Earth" with "Saddam Hussein" and get a good approximation of the result. How has "regime change" worked out in Iraq?