Attacking Earth

My take on it is similar to KZT's.

But I also think if the GA 'attacks' Earth, it has to take such steps that it be the most bloodless attack ever. They may need to carry out a preliminary crushing attack at one of the SLN's extra-Sol bases to demonstrate the ability to do so - both Crandall and Filareta were defeated inside Manticoran systems where they had umpteen time to prepare traps. Possibly they should capture all the SLN's remaining major formations.

Then they basically stage a repeat of Honor's mission to Haven. Show up with Eighth Fleet(and perhaps Haven's Second Fleet) just outside the Sol hyper limit and force a negotiation process to start. As a bonus, have all the captured SLN ships(missiles removed, obviously) gathered up in an accompanying fleet - which will not be turned over to Sol authorities immediately, however unhindered the newsies' access to them might be.

Rincewind wrote:As the confrontation between Manticore & the Solarian League has developed & the SLN has suffered disaster after disaster one point that has come out is that it is believed by the Mandarins that attacking Earth would be A Bad Idea insomuch as it would provide a rallying point for all the League Systems & unite them against Manticore & the Grand Alliance.

Now obviously RFC has his own plans which will come out in Shadow of Victory but I would like to add my two penny worth.

Would attacking Earth really be such a mistake? Certainly it would provide a rallying cry for some systems but, then again, those systems would have rallied to Earth & the Mandarins no matter what. Look at their reactions to Green Pines. It did not matter what anybody else said, they believed what suited their own prejudices because they wanted to. So they would automatically oppose the Grand Alliance no matter what. As for the other systems, particularly those further away from Earth & the Core Worlds they already have a different view of Earth anyway based on their experience with the Mandarins & the Transtellars.

Okay, here's my case for why an attack on Sol is a stupid thing to do that will only make the war harder.

1. It's a rallying cry for the League at large. As previously discussed, giving the Mandarins the opportunity to wave the bloody shirt and get support for the war against those barbarians that dared to inflict the horrors of war on humanity's homeworld in retaliation for an attack the SLN had nothing to do with is a bad choice. If the League, or sufficiently large parts of it, were willing to take the inevitable losses, they could still steamroll over Manticore.
2. Defending the Sol system is costly. Think about it: With the RMN acting as a fleet-in-being at Beowulf, the SLN can never leave Sol uncovered. Money and effort has to be spent shoring up the defences around Earth, ships have to be stationed there that can't be withdrawn, and as long as the bureaucracy still happens, the actual warfighters of the SLN will be hamstrung.

The problem is that there's no clear strategic goal that requires an attack on Sol. The war against the SL isn't fought on Earth or in Sol, it's fought in all the sectors exploited by the OFS and all the old sectors who are disillusioned by the SL. Attacking the SL leadership isn't going to help; it's better to let those people dig their own graves. If the goal is to fracture the League, Manticore can't be seen as a barbarian horde pounding at the gates. It has to be seen as the liberator, the dealmaker, the bringer of trade and prosperity. Any military action that isn't in support of those goals should not be taken.

Sharp Claw wrote:Since the SLN has decided to adopt a raiding strategy, primarily using battlecruisers, a far more effective way to send a message would be to completely trash both the military and civilian space based infrastructure of any SLN system used as a base for such raids, after issuing warnings to evacuate of course. That would really send the message that wars have consequences and that however much pain SLN raids might inflict on the GA the SLN would suffer much worse. Trashing a few important SLN systems would really turn up the political heat on the Mandarins to sue for peace.

But they don't want the Mandarins to sue for peace. That just means that the Solarian League goes away, does a few decades of research, and destroys Manticore when it's good and ready to do so, because it can HORRIBLY out-produce Manticore any time it gets serious and has enough time. This is not remotely comparable to the war against Haven, or to any war between two relatively equal-size powers. This is the mouse (with an AK-47) taking on multiple herds of (slow, unwary, not-yet-really-concerned) elephants.

What Manticore wants to do is dismantle the Solarian League, break it up into many small pieces, none of which are large enough to take out the Star Empire, and none of which have any reason to get back together to beat up the Star Empire.

Destroying lots of Solarian infrastructure is a good way to get lots of Solarians very P.O.ed at you. This is not a path down which Manticoran strategy wants to go.

What if the Mesans attack Earth using the same stealth ed stuff they used on Manticore? They have done it before. Why not again? Then blame the whole attack on the Grand Alliance? Yikes!

HB of CJ wrote:What if the Mesans attack Earth using the same stealth ed stuff they used on Manticore? They have done it before. Why not again? Then blame the whole attack on the Grand Alliance? Yikes!

And accomplishes...what, exactly? Prove that the mystery stealth ships that attacked Manticore really do exist? That whoever controls these ships have it out for the both of them? There's no way using the Sharks and Ghosts on an attack on Earth furthers the Alignment's goals.

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the psychological effect of attacking Earth. Earth is the mother of humanity who bore many sons and daughters as star systems. To attack Earth is to attack the main hive of humanity.

Earth is intrinsically and forever the martyr. She's Freudian like that. Within League space, this protective feeling would be innate and overpowering. To attack "Mother Earth" is to become bully. Because no one attacks a mother. It's Freudian like that.

Thus, attacking Earth would rally everyone - else. I'd not be surprised if even Beowulf drew the line there.

HB of CJ wrote:What if the Mesans attack Earth using the same stealth ed stuff they used on Manticore? They have done it before. Why not again? Then blame the whole attack on the Grand Alliance? Yikes!

Pulling off a convincing false-flag attack with conventional weapons is difficult. Pulling one off with weapons that have only been previously used against Manticore, and definitely not by Haven (because why fight First Manticore if you can do that)? The Mandarins and the general population of the League may be very narrow-minded, but they aren't actually stupid.

HB of CJ wrote:What if the Mesans attack Earth using the same stealth ed stuff they used on Manticore? They have done it before. Why not again? Then blame the whole attack on the Grand Alliance? Yikes!

Déjà vu or what?

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drothgery wrote:

HB of CJ wrote:What if the Mesans attack Earth using the same stealth ed stuff they used on Manticore? They have done it before. Why not again? Then blame the whole attack on the Grand Alliance? Yikes!

Pulling off a convincing false-flag attack with conventional weapons is difficult. Pulling one off with weapons that have only been previously used against Manticore, and definitely not by Haven (because why fight First Manticore if you can do that)? The Mandarins and the general population of the League may be very narrow-minded, but they aren't actually stupid.

No. But they are opportunistic. Something like this would be like manna to the Mandarins. It would serve them their purpose.

It would smack of the same theory that fueled the 911 "conspiracy" of our very own government being responsible for it all, to gain public approval.

Same PB&J sandwich. Just jammed together differently.

Edit:
Besides, they just need to produce enough reasonable doubt to cause enough suspicion to gain its own momentum - nudged just a tiny bit by the MAlign - a task in which they have previously demonstrated an unerring propensity to accomplish.

The MA is quite confident that the RMN will take apart the SLN. They don't need to do anything other then what they are currently doing.