Thirsk's Breaking Point

I've been thinking about this for a while, wondering when and in what circumstances Thirsk is going to show he has an actual spine, rather than just "something resembling" one.

It's a pretty sure bet Merlin's going to let Thirsk know his family is safe, and will remain so no matter what Thirsk does. It's also a pretty sure bet they'll also discuss the danger Thirsk will be in, once Clyntahn realizes he no longer has any control over Thirsk. I'm sure Thirsk will make arrangements to have trusted men as bodyguards around him now - but my question has always been, will he break with the Church, and if so, how?

There are two logical scenarios I can see. The first is that the Inquisition attempts to grab Thirsk, or assassinate him, and his subordinates intervene.

The second I can see is that Clyntahn decides it's time to transfer the sequestered Dohlaran naval officers to Zion for questioning, and Thirsk arranges for their escape.

Either scenario will result, at a minimum, in a mass desertion of Thirsk's senior officers. At a maximum, it would result in a mutiny of pretty much the entire Dohlaran navy. How and to what effect, I am not sure. But I am reasonably confident of these two possible triggers to such an event.

If the Dohlaran navy does not stage an outright insurrection against the Dohlaran government, their only other recourse would be to take ship to the Charisans at Claw Island and give their parole in exchange for sanctuary.

I think that is the more likely outcome, and it effectively will give control of the Gulf of Dohlar over to the Charisan navy, provided they have enough ships to exercise it. Given the Dohlaran vessels Thirsk would likely be handing over, Charis might be able to do so, if it has the personnel to crew them.

The effect on Dohlaran morale, and morale throughout Church-controlled territory, would be catastrophic.

Yeah!!!!!

Oh! My!

I just remembered the incident that marked the beginning of the collapse of the German Empire.

Not at all the same circumstances, or at least not yet, but potentially just as devastating politically.

XofDallas wrote:I've been thinking about this for a while, wondering when and in what circumstances Thirsk is going to show he has an actual spine, rather than just "something resembling" one.

It's a pretty sure bet Merlin's going to let Thirsk know his family is safe, and will remain so no matter what Thirsk does. It's also a pretty sure bet they'll also discuss the danger Thirsk will be in, once Clyntahn realizes he no longer has any control over Thirsk. I'm sure Thirsk will make arrangements to have trusted men as bodyguards around him now - but my question has always been, will he break with the Church, and if so, how?

There are two logical scenarios I can see. The first is that the Inquisition attempts to grab Thirsk, or assassinate him, and his subordinates intervene.

The second I can see is that Clyntahn decides it's time to transfer the sequestered Dohlaran naval officers to Zion for questioning, and Thirsk arranges for their escape.

Either scenario will result, at a minimum, in a mass desertion of Thirsk's senior officers. At a maximum, it would result in a mutiny of pretty much the entire Dohlaran navy. How and to what effect, I am not sure. But I am reasonably confident of these two possible triggers to such an event.

If the Dohlaran navy does not stage an outright insurrection against the Dohlaran government, their only other recourse would be to take ship to the Charisans at Claw Island and give their parole in exchange for sanctuary.

I think that is the more likely outcome, and it effectively will give control of the Gulf of Dohlar over to the Charisan navy, provided they have enough ships to exercise it. Given the Dohlaran vessels Thirsk would likely be handing over, Charis might be able to do so, if it has the personnel to crew them.

The effect on Dohlaran morale, and morale throughout Church-controlled territory, would be catastrophic.

Yeah!!!!!

You're talking about the Naval Order of 24 October, 1918 and the Kiel Mutiny?

Louis R wrote:Oh! My!

I just remembered the incident that marked the beginning of the collapse of the German Empire.

Not at all the same circumstances, or at least not yet, but potentially just as devastating politically.

XofDallas wrote:I've been thinking about this for a while, wondering when and in what circumstances Thirsk is going to show he has an actual spine, rather than just "something resembling" one.

It's a pretty sure bet Merlin's going to let Thirsk know his family is safe, and will remain so no matter what Thirsk does. It's also a pretty sure bet they'll also discuss the danger Thirsk will be in, once Clyntahn realizes he no longer has any control over Thirsk. I'm sure Thirsk will make arrangements to have trusted men as bodyguards around him now - but my question has always been, will he break with the Church, and if so, how?

There are two logical scenarios I can see. The first is that the Inquisition attempts to grab Thirsk, or assassinate him, and his subordinates intervene.

The second I can see is that Clyntahn decides it's time to transfer the sequestered Dohlaran naval officers to Zion for questioning, and Thirsk arranges for their escape.

Either scenario will result, at a minimum, in a mass desertion of Thirsk's senior officers. At a maximum, it would result in a mutiny of pretty much the entire Dohlaran navy. How and to what effect, I am not sure. But I am reasonably confident of these two possible triggers to such an event.

If the Dohlaran navy does not stage an outright insurrection against the Dohlaran government, their only other recourse would be to take ship to the Charisans at Claw Island and give their parole in exchange for sanctuary.

I think that is the more likely outcome, and it effectively will give control of the Gulf of Dohlar over to the Charisan navy, provided they have enough ships to exercise it. Given the Dohlaran vessels Thirsk would likely be handing over, Charis might be able to do so, if it has the personnel to crew them.

The effect on Dohlaran morale, and morale throughout Church-controlled territory, would be catastrophic.

Yeah!!!!!

XofDallas wrote:I've been thinking about this for a while, wondering when and in what circumstances Thirsk is going to show he has an actual spine, rather than just "something resembling" one.

X, you're being way too harsh on Thirsk. I don't know of any courage scale but imho he's somewhere near the top. Any move agianst the Inquisition is going to have to have to include multiple groups(Navy, Army, portions of the Royal Council and maybe Le Roi himself if he can be dragged away from his pigeon coops) and will have to have a large religious component (Thirsk's Intendant) that points the finger at the Inquisition.

I think it's going to be a while before we get any snippets to chew on

That is indeed what I had in mind. The Kaiser's regime lasted, what? 2 weeks? after that incident. I'm not sure it's correct to call it the 'trigger', but it was critical to the whole process.

What happens in Gorath Bay when the navy refuses orders? Particularly orders coming, directly or otherwise, from Zion?

XofDallas wrote:You're talking about the Naval Order of 24 October, 1918 and the Kiel Mutiny?

Louis R wrote:Oh! My!

I just remembered the incident that marked the beginning of the collapse of the German Empire.

Not at all the same circumstances, or at least not yet, but potentially just as devastating politically.

I think Thirsk may be the key ingredient to the destruction of the church. When he learns that his family is safe, I expect that he will turn against the church and the Go4 and team up with Charis to end the war. In his heart of hearts he knows that the church is corrupt, and that the church of Charis is the better church. I believe he is ready to hear the truth. He has experienced the differences himself, both personally and professionally. It will pain him deeply, I am sure, but he will be outraged (IMO) to learn how he has been used.

There will be three triggers, First; The King Haraalds show up in the Eastern Dohlarian Seas resulting in the surrender of the Dohlarian Fleet. Second; The direction of Clyntahn to send the Dohlar sailors to him in Zion would be refused by the regime. Thirdly; Clyntahn in his rage of the prior events would send the Southern Harchong Contingent to smite Dohlar and the Charisians would end up defending Dohlar.

These last two posts are pretty good analysis. My only comment would be that the COGA won't go away when things come unglued in Zion. While Zion will no longer be able to impose its will, the church will remain intact on the level of archbishop on down.

Don

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The more I think on it, the more Louis R's analogy makes sense to me.

So, here's a revised scenario:

Some weeks after Merlin's conversation with Thirsk, there is an attempt to assassinate him at night. His men, previously alerted by him, are prepared for this, and kill all the assassins, while at the same time stating that Thirsk was killed.

The following morning, the inquisition shows up and starts making statements that it was Charisan assassins who had infiltrated the Navy, and they and the sailors from the prison escort will be transported to Zion for a fair trial.

Thirsk reveals himself as alive, and as being an intended victim of assassination by the Church's inquisitors, and stops the intended transport, making the statement that there is no such thing as a fair trial where the Inquisition is involved. He also frees the prisoners on the Prodigal Lass.

In the process, Thirsk also makes his own very public distinction between the Church and the Group of Four (or between the Church and the Inquisition).

This results in more violence, and in several communiques between Thirsk and the ruling government. The sailors retire to their fully provisioned and armed ships in an attempt to stay out of things, but refuse to come to shore while the Inquisition maintains any presence in Dohlar.

Thirsk agrees to meet with dignitaries ashore, while in sight and range of his ships. The Inquisition attempts to nab him, and he is killed in the process, resulting in devastating rifle fire from the ships.

Events unfold from there.

Louis R wrote:That is indeed what I had in mind. The Kaiser's regime lasted, what? 2 weeks? after that incident. I'm not sure it's correct to call it the 'trigger', but it was critical to the whole process.

What happens in Gorath Bay when the navy refuses orders? Particularly orders coming, directly or otherwise, from Zion?

XofDallas wrote:You're talking about the Naval Order of 24 October, 1918 and the Kiel Mutiny?

an all too believable hypotheses